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1 ?,?,?,,,,,,,,,,, 2008 /3 (15 ), 1 35 Q uarterly Journal of Intenational Politics 1

2 ,,,, ( ),,,,,,,, 5 1,,,,,,,,, John Jacob Nutter, Unpacking Threat: A Concep tual and Formal Analysis, in Norman A. Graham, ed., Seeking Security and D evelopm ent: The Im pact of M ilitary Spending and A rm s Transfers ( Boulder: Lynne R ienner Publishers, 1994), pp :, 20073,

3 ?, ( ),,,,,,,,,, :?, ( Robert Gilp in),, T. V. Paul, Asymm etric Conflicts: W ar Initiation by W eaker Powers (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1994) ; GilMerom, How Dem ocracies Lose Sm allw ars: S tate, Society, and the Failures of France in A lgeria, Israel in Lebanon, and the United S tates in V ietnam (New York: Cambridge University Press, 2003 ) ; Ivan A rregu n2toft, How the W eak W in W ars: A Theory of Asymm etric Conflict (New York: Cambridge University Press, 2005),,FransO singa, A symmetric W arfare: Rediscovering the Essence of Strategy, in John Andreas O lson, ed., Asymm etric W arfare (O slo: The Royal Norwegian A ir Force Academy, 2002 ), pp ; David L. Grange, A symmetric W arfare: O ld Method, New Concern, N ational S trategy Forum Review, W inter 2000, http: / / blackboard. jfsc. ndu. edu / htm l/ jfscpublications/ assets/ docs/ cam _ grange. pdf; Ike Skelton, America s FrontierW ars: Lessons for A symmetric Conflicts, M ilitary Review, Sep /Oct 2001, Vol. 81, Issue 5, p. 22; N Sem inar, A symmetric W arfare: The Only Thing New Is the Tactics, 2000, http: / / www. ndu. edu / library/ n2 /n005605n. pdf; Kenneth F. McKenxie Jr., The Revenge of the Melians: A symmetric Threats and the Next QDR, W ashington D. C. : Institute for National Strategic Studies, National Defense University, 2000, http: / /www. au. af. m il/au /awc / awcgate /ndu /mcnair62. pdf,,, John Mearsheimer, The Tragedy of Great Power Politics (New York: W. W. Norton & Company, 2001) Chap ters 1 3; Kenneth W altz, Theory of International Politics (New York: McGraw2H ill, 1979), pp

4 ,,,,,, (Jeffrey Record),,,,,,, ( Ivan A rregu n2toft), ,71. 5%,,, , , ,,, ( ), : ( ),, 1994, 228 Jeffrey Rocord, W hy the Strong Lose? Param eters, Vol. 35, W inter 2005 /06, pp HansMorgenthau, Politics Am ong N ations, 5 th ed. (New York: Knopf, 1978), chap ters Ivan A rregu n2toft, How thew eak W in W ars: A Theory of Asymm etric Conflict (New York: Cambridge University Press, 2005), p. 3. 4

5 ? (Andrew Mack), :,,, ;,,,,,:,,,, ( Steven Rosen), ( GilMerom ),, ( ) ;,,,,,,,, Andrew Mack, W hy B ig Nations Lose Small W ars: The Politics of A symmetric Conflict, W orld Politics, Vol. 27, No. 2, 1975, pp Ibid., p Ibid., pp Steven Rosen, W ar Power and the W illingness to Suffer, in John Vasquez and Marie Henehan ed., The Scientific S tudy of Peace and W ar, 1999, chap ter 11. Gil Merom, How Dem ocracies Lose Sm allw ars: S tate, Society, and the Failures of France in A lgeria, Israel in Lebanon, and the United S tates in V ietnam (New York: Cambridge University Press, 2003). 5

6 ,,,,,,,,,, ( ) ;, (, ), ( ), ( ),,,, ( Ivan A rregu n2toft) ,, , : ( ), ; ( ),, M ichael C. Desch, Democracy and V ictory: W hy Regime Type Hardly Matters, International Security, Vol. 27, No. 2, 2002, pp Ivan A rregu n2toft, How the W eak W in W ars: A Theory of A symmetric Conflict, International Security, Vol. 26, No. 1, 2001; Ivan A rregu n2toft, How thew eak W in W ars: A Theory of Asymm etric Conflict (New York: Cambridge University Press, 2005). 6

7 ?,,,,, ;,,,, :,,,,,,,,,,, ( ),,,,,,?,?, Ivan A rregu n2toft, How thew eak W in W ars: A Theory of Asymm etric Conflict (New York: Cambridge University Press, 2005), pp Ibid., p. 34. Ibid., p. 35. Ivan A rregu n2toft, The Futility of Barbarism: A ssessing the Impact of the Systematic Harm of Non2combatants in W ar, 2003, http: / /www. ksg. harvard. edu /wappp / research /working/ ivan_toft. pdf J. Bowyer Bell, The M yth of the Guerrilla: Revolutionary Theory and M alpractice ( Hardcover: Knopf, 1971) ; : ( ),

8 ,,,,,,, : (),?, :,,,,,,,, ( ),,,,,:,,;,, ( ),,,, Ivan A rregu n2toft, How the W eak W in W ars: A Theory of Asymm etric Conflict, p. 36,, : ( ),, 2001, :,, 2005, 57 8

9 ?,,,?,,, : , ; ( ), 5 1,,, 36 (21),,,?,, (Andrew Mack) ; ( Gil Merom ) ; (Jeffrey Record) ; ( Ivan A rregu n2toft) :,, 2005, 29,,,,, , % ; , 20. 5% ; % ; % Ivan A rregu n2toft, How the W eak W in W ars: A Theory of Asymm etric Conflict (New York: Cambridge University Press, 2005), p. 4 Andrew Mack, W hy B ig Nations Lose Small W ars, pp ; Gil Merom, How D em ocracies Lose Sm allw ars; Jeffrey Rocord, W hy the Strong Lose? pp ; Ivan A rregu n2toft, How thew eak W in W ars. 9

10 ( ) ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, ;,, ( ), 10 :, 20031, 4 9

11 ?,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, ( ), ( ) () : ( ),,1991, ; Gil Merom, How Dem ocracies Lose Sm allw ars, p

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14 () () : (Melvin Small) ( J. David Singer) (Correlates of W ar) ( ) Melvin Small and J. David Singer, R esort to A rm s: International and Civil W ars, (Beverley H ills: Sage Publications, 1983) ; Ivan A rregu n2 Toft, How thew eak W in W ars: A Theory of Asymm etric Conflict (New York: Cambridge University Press, 2005), pp ; : :,,1999, ,, 63. 9% ;, 61. 1% ;,50% ;, 91. 7%,,, 43. 8%,,, ( ) 2001,,http: / /news. xinhuanet. com /world / /31 /content_ htm,,, http: / / news. xinhuanet. com /world / /21 /content_ htm 14

15 ?,,,, 21,: ( ),,, ;,,, ;,,, 10,: 26, 72. 2% 26,3 ( ), 22: 22 / ( ) 15. 8% (3) 84. 2% (16) 100% (7) 0% (0) 88. 5% (23), 26, ( ) 88. 5%, 10, SPSS 36,, 23 15

16 23 (Beta) t ( Sig. ) (Constant) (X 1 ) (X 2 ) (X 3 ) (X 4 ) : X, Y( ) ; Y = X X X X 4 ; Adjusted R Square = ,, , ,,, :,, ;,,,, ( ),,,, ( 16

17 ? ),,,,,,, ( ),,,,,,,,,,,,,, :,,,, 19,,, ( ),,,,,,,1991, 478 : ( ),, 1964, 12 :,,1999, 35, 44 : ( ), 15 16, 46 17

18 ,,,,,,,,,,,?,,??,,, ( ),,, (),,,,,, : ( ), 15 16, :,,, 1991, 3 : (),, 1992, ,( ),, 18

19 ?, :,,, () (),,,,,,, :,,, ;,,,,,, :,,, : ( ),, 2001, 504, Mark R. Am stutz, International Conflict and Cooperation: An Introduction to W orld Politics (Boston: McGraw2H ill College, 1999), pp , : ( ),, 1989, 23 19

20 ,,,,,,, :,,,,,,,,,,,,, ( ),,,,,,:,,, 20 : (), 2003, J. F. C. :,, 1985, 7 10

21 ?,,,,,,,,, :,,,, ;,, ( ),,,,,, : Asymm etric W arfare and M ilitary Thought, http: / /www. allacadem ic. com / /meta /p _m la_apa_ research_citation /0 /6 /9 /1 /2 /pages69123 /p ph,robert A. Pape, Soft Balancing against the United States, International Security, Vol. 30, No. 1, Summer 2005, pp : ( ),, 2001,

22 , ;,, :,,,,,,,( ) ( ),,,,,,,, :,,,,, :,,,,,,, 22 : ( ),, 2006, , 183

23 ?,,,,,, :, (Martin Shaw), 15,,,,,,,,,,, :,,,,,,,,,, W illiam S. L ind, Understanding Fourth Generation W ar, M ilitary Review, Sep tember2october 2004, p. 13. Martin Shaw, The N ew W estern W ay of W ar: R isk Transfer W ar and its Crisis in Iraq ( Polity Press, 2005), pp Jeffrey Jarkowsky, Boots on the Ground W ill U. S. Landpower be Decisive in Future Conflicts? pp , http: / /www. smallwarsjournal. com /documents/ jarkowsky. pdf. 23

24 ,,,,,?,,,,,,,,,,,,, ;,,,,, :,,,, : ( ), 13 : (), 2003, 419 : ( ),, 2001, 489 M ichael J. Schaack, Anarchy and Anarchists (New York: A rno Press, 1977), pp

25 ?,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, ( ),,,,,,, : ( ),, 2006,

26 ,, :,,,,,,,,,,,,, ,,,,,, ( ),, : ( ),, 1999, 567 ; Jay Gordon Simp son, Not by Bombs A lone: Lessons from Malaya, pp , http: / /www. dtic. m il/doctrine / jel/ jfq_ pubs/1622. pdf, ,, http: / /news. xinhuanet. com /video / /22 /content_ htm 26

27 ? ( ) 3 20,, 5 1,, 43,,,,,, 2003,,,,, 20 40, :,,,,,,,,,,,,, :, 20075, 54 Martin Shaw, the N ew W estern W ay of W ar: R isk TransferW ar and Crisis in Iraq (Cambridge: Polity Press, 2005), p

28 ,,,,,,,,,, 60, ( ),,,,,,,,,, : : ( ),, 2003 Robert M. Cassidy, W inning the W ar of the Flea: Lessons from Guerrilla W arfare, M ilitary Review, Sep tember2october 2004, p. 41. Joseph S. Nye, American Foreign Policy after Iraq, http: / /www. p roject2syndicate. org/ commentary/ nye43. B ruce Hoffman, Insurgency and Counterinsurgency in Iraq, June 2004, p. 16. http: / /www. rand. org/ pubs/occasional_papers/2005 /RAND_OP127. pdf. Jeffery Record, The American W ay of W ay: Cultural Barriers to Successful Counterinsurgency, Policy Analysis, No. 577, Sep tember 1, 2006, pp B rigadier N igel Aylwin2Foster, Changing the A rmy for Counterinsurgency Operations, M ilitary Review, November2December 2005, p

29 ?,,,, ( ),,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, ;,,,,,,,,,,:, ; ; : ( ), ( ) 20072, 55 Jeffery Record, The American W ay of W ay, pp :, 20073, 90 29

30 ,,,,,,,,,, ( John A rquilla) (David Ronfeldt),,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, Steven Metz and Raymond M illen, Insurgency in Iraq and Afghanistan: Change and Continuity, Strategic Studies Institute, p. 8. http: / /www. dni. gov/ nic / PDF _ GIF _2020 _ Support/2004 _05 _25 _papers/ insurgency. pdf. Paul Staniland, Defeating Transnational Insurgencies: The Best Offense Is a Good Fence, the W ashington Q uarterly, No. 6, winter 2005, pp John A rquilla et al., Networks, Netwar, Nd Information2Age Terrorism, in Ian O. Lesser et al., Countering the N ew Terrorism, ( Santa Monica, Calif. : The RAND Corporation, MR29892AF, 1999), p. 47. B ruce Hoffman, Insurgency and Counterinsurgency in Iraq, June 2004, p. 16. http: / /www. rand. org/ pubs/occasional_papers/2005 /RAND_OP127. pdf. Steven Metz and Raymond M illen, Insurgency in Iraq and Afghanistan, p

31 ?,, (B ruce Hoffman),,,, ( ) 2003,,, 2003, , , 2007,,,,?,,,, , 65, 160, 5, Jim Krane, Iraqi Insurgents U se Tactics They Learned from Chechens, Taliban, A l2qaida, A rm ytim es. com, January 5, B ruce Hoffman, Insurgency and Counterinsurgency in Iraq, p. 18. Ibid., p. 20. http: / / icasualties. org/. 2007,,,,,,, Andrew Mack, W hy B ig Nations Lose SmallW ars, pp http: / /www. iraqanalysis. org/mortality/432#faq

32 , ;,,,,,,( ),,,,,,,,,,,,,, 2008,,,,, ,,,,,,,1, 120,, 700 ( ), Gil Merom, How Dem ocracies Lose Sm allw ars, p. 15. Robert Pape, Coercive A ir Power in the V ietnam war, International security, No. 2 Autumn 1990, pp ,, , 32

33 ?,,, ,,, 43,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, :,,,, :, 51 http: / / news. nen. com. cn / / / shtm l.,,, Ivan A rregu n2toft, How thew eak W in W ars, p. 227 Ibid., pp B ruce Hoffman, Insurgency and Counterinsurgency in Iraq, June 2004, p. 15, http: / /www. rand. org/ pubs/occasional_papers/2005 /RAND_OP127. pdf. 33

34 ,, 20 1,,,,,,, :,,, ;,,,,,,,,,,,,,, C. K. : ( ), , 65 Hannah A llam, Outlook Is B leak For Success In Iraq, Philadelphia Inquirer, May 9, 2004, p. 1. Henry Kissinger, The V ietnam Negotiations, Foreign Affairs, January, 1969, p

35 ?,,,,,,,,,,, :, ;,, 35

, ( Fareed Zakaria), ( Samuel P. Huntington),,,,,,, 1964,,, 1993 ( Foreign A ffa irs), 2000 ( The N ew sw eek) : 116 : ( ),, 2001 Fareed Zak

,,,,,,,?? : 2008 /3 ( 15 ), 115 128 Q uarterly Journal of Intenational Politics 115 , ( Fareed Zakaria), ( Samuel P. Huntington),,,,,,, 1964,,, 1993 ( Foreign A ffa irs), 2000 ( The N ew sw eek) 2003 2008