Currency Competition, Exchange Rate Regimes and Quantitative Easing (2) Lawrence J. Lau 劉遵義 Ralph and Claire Landau Professor of Economics, The Chinese University of Hong Kong and Kwoh-Ting Li Professor in Economic Development, Emeritus, Stanford University 2016 Masters Forum Chung-Hua Institution for Economic Research Taipei, 25 August 2016 Tel: +852 3943 1611; Fax: +852 2603 5230 Email: lawrence@lawrencejlau.hk; WebPages: www.igef.cuhk.edu.hk/ljl *All opinions expressed herein are the author s own and do not necessarily reflect the views of any of the organisations with which the author is affiliated.
2008/11/25 2009/1/25 2009/3/25 2009/5/25 2009/7/25 2009/9/25 2009/11/25 2010/1/25 2010/3/25 2010/5/25 2010/7/25 2010/9/25 2010/11/25 2011/1/25 2011/3/25 2011/5/25 2011/7/25 2011/9/25 2011/11/25 2012/1/25 2012/3/25 2012/5/25 2012/7/25 2012/9/25 2012/11/25 2013/1/25 2013/3/25 2013/5/25 2013/7/25 2013/9/25 2013/11/25 2014/1/25 2014/3/25 2014/5/25 2014/7/25 2014/9/25 2014/11/25 2015/1/25 2015/3/25 2015/5/25 2015/7/25 2015/9/25 2015/11/25 2016/1/25 2016/3/25 2016/5/25 2016/7/25 Exchange Rate Indexes of Selected Economies (11/25/2008=100) 140 130 120 RMB Euro Japanese Yen Australian Dollar Exchange Rate Indexes of Selected Economies (11/25/2008=100) 110 100 90 80 70 60 50
2008/11/25 2009/1/25 2009/3/25 2009/5/25 2009/7/25 2009/9/25 2009/11/25 2010/1/25 2010/3/25 2010/5/25 2010/7/25 2010/9/25 2010/11/25 2011/1/25 2011/3/25 2011/5/25 2011/7/25 2011/9/25 2011/11/25 2012/1/25 2012/3/25 2012/5/25 2012/7/25 2012/9/25 2012/11/25 2013/1/25 2013/3/25 2013/5/25 2013/7/25 2013/9/25 2013/11/25 2014/1/25 2014/3/25 2014/5/25 2014/7/25 2014/9/25 2014/11/25 2015/1/25 2015/3/25 2015/5/25 2015/7/25 2015/9/25 2015/11/25 2016/1/25 2016/3/25 2016/5/25 2016/7/25 Exchange Rate Indexes of Selected Economies (11/25/2008=100) 150 140 130 120 RMB Korean Won New Taiwan Dollar Indonesian Rupiah Malaysian Ringgit Philippines Peso Singapore Dollar Thai Baht Vietnamese Dong Exchange Rate Indexes of Selected Economies (11/25/2008=100) 110 100 90 80 70 60
The Exchange Rate Revaluation/ of Selected Economies (2008/11/25-2010/11/03) The Exchange Rate Revaluation/ during QE1 11/25/2008-11/3/2010 Currency 11/25/2008 11/3/2010 Revaluation/ RMB 6.8245 6.6746 2.20% Euro 0.76748 0.71357 7.02% Japanese Yen 95.532 81.387 14.81% Australian Dollar 1.54135 1.00368 34.88% Korean Won 1501.72 1110.23 26.07% New Taiwan Dollar 33.349 30.425 8.77% Indonesian Rupiah 12209 8931 26.85% Malaysian Ringgit 3.6207 3.0853 14.79% Philippines Peso 49.409 42.475 14.03% Singapore Dollar 1.5108 1.2889 14.69% Thai Baht 35.205 29.787 15.39% Vietnamese Dong 16957 19408-14.45% Indian Rupee 49.894 44.38 11.05%
The Exchange Rate Revaluation/ of Selected Economies (2010/11/03-2012/09/13) The Exchange Rate Revaluation/ during QE2 11/3/2010-9/13/2012 Currency 11/3/2010 9/13/2012 Revaluation/ RMB 6.6746 6.329 5.18% Euro 0.71357 0.77454-8.54% Japanese Yen 81.387 77.404 4.89% Australian Dollar 1.00368 0.95702 4.65% Korean Won 1110.23 1128.8-1.67% New Taiwan Dollar 30.425 29.599 2.71% Indonesian Rupiah 8931 9561.7-7.06% Malaysian Ringgit 3.0853 3.0805 0.16% Philippines Peso 42.475 41.679 1.87% Singapore Dollar 1.2889 1.2302 4.55% Thai Baht 29.787 31.001-4.08% Vietnamese Dong 19408 20751-6.92% Indian Rupee 44.38 55.352-24.72%
The Exchange Rate Revaluation/ of Selected Economies (2012/09/13-2013/05/22) The Exchange Rate Revaluation/ 9/13/2012-5/22/2013 Currency 9/13/2012 5/22/2013 Revaluation/ RMB 6.329 6.1323 3.11% Euro 0.77454 0.77733-0.36% Japanese Yen 77.404 103.537-33.76% Aus tralian Dollar 0.95702 1.03268-7.91% Korean Won 1128.8 1113.5 1.36% New Taiwan Dollar 29.599 29.925-1.10% Indones ian Rupiah 9561.7 9748.1-1.95% Malays ian Ringgit 3.0805 3.0213 1.92% Philippines Pes o 41.679 41.283 0.95% Singapore Dollar 1.2302 1.2665-2.95% Thai Baht 31.001 29.838 3.75% Vietnamese Dong 20751 20666 0.41% Indian Rupee 55.352 55.614-0.47%
The Exchange Rate Revaluation/ of Selected Economies (2013/05/22-2014/02/03) The Exchange Rate Revaluation/ 5/22/2013-2/3/2014 Currency 5/22/2013 2/3/2014 Revaluation/ RMB 6.1323 6.0624 1.14% Euro 0.77733 0.73948 4.87% Japanese Yen 103.537 101.15 2.31% Aus tralian Dollar 1.03268 1.1395-10.34% Korean Won 1113.5 1084.8 2.58% New Taiwan Dollar 29.925 30.337-1.38% Indones ian Rupiah 9748.1 12307-26.25% Malays ian Ringgit 3.0213 3.3462-10.75% Philippines Pes o 41.283 45.412-10.00% Singapore Dollar 1.2665 1.2756-0.72% Thai Baht 29.838 32.915-10.31% Vietnamese Dong 20666 20898-1.12% Indian Rupee 55.614 62.576-12.52%
The Exchange Rate Revaluation/ 02/03/2014-02/03/2015 Currency 02/03/2014 02/03/2015 Revaluation/ RMB 6.0624 6.2593-3.25% Euro 0.73948 0.87251-17.99% Japanese Yen 101.15 117.51-16.17% Aus tralian Dollar 1.1395 1.2927-13.44% Korean Won 1084.8 1096.5-1.08% New Taiwan Dollar 30.337 31.51-3.87% Indones ian Rupiah 12307 12710-3.27% Malays ian Ringgit 3.3462 3.6304-8.49% Philippines Pes o 45.412 44.155 2.77% Singapore Dollar 1.2756 1.3469-5.59% Thai Baht 32.915 32.633 0.86% Vietnamese Dong 20898 21112-1.02% Indian Rupee 62.576 61.633 1.51% The Exchange Rate Revaluation/ of Selected Economies (2014/02/03-2015/02/03)
The Exchange Rate Revaluation/ of Selected Economies (2008/11/25-2015/02/03) The Exchange Rate Revaluation/ 11/25/2008-02/03/2015 Currency 11/25/2008 02/03/2015 Revaluation/ RMB 6.8245 6.2593 8.28% Euro 0.76748 0.87251-13.69% Japanese Yen 95.532 117.51-23.01% Aus tralian Dollar 1.54135 1.2927 16.13% Korean Won 1501.72 1096.5 26.98% New Taiwan Dollar 33.349 31.51 5.51% Indones ian Rupiah 12209 12710-4.10% Malays ian Ringgit 3.6207 3.6304-0.27% Philippines Pes o 49.409 44.155 10.63% Singapore Dollar 1.5108 1.3469 10.85% Thai Baht 35.205 32.633 7.31% Vietnamese Dong 16957 21112-24.50% Indian Rupee 49.894 61.633-23.53%
2008 Nov 2009 Jan 2009 Mar 2009 May 2009 Jul 2009 Sep 2009 Nov 2010 Jan 2010 Mar 2010 May 2010 Jul 2010 Sep 2010 Nov 2011 Jan 2011 Mar 2011 May 2011 Jul 2011 Sep 2011 Nov 2012 Jan 2012 Mar 2012 May 2012 Jul 2012 Sep 2012 Nov 2013 Jan 2013 Mar 2013 May 2013 Jul 2013 Sep 2013 Nov 2014 Jan 2014 Mar 2014 May 2014 Jul 2014 Sep 2014 Nov 2015 Jan 2015 Mar 2015 May 2015 Jul 2015 Sep 2015 Nov 2016 Jan 2016 Mar 2016 May 2016 Jul Percent per annum The Effects of Quantitative Easing: Interest Rates of Selected Economies 7 6.5 6 5.5 5 4.5 Interest Rates of Seleced Economies China Euro Area Japan Australia United States 4 3.5 3 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0-0.5
2008 Nov 2009 Jan 2009 Mar 2009 May 2009 Jul 2009 Sep 2009 Nov 2010 Jan 2010 Mar 2010 May 2010 Jul 2010 Sep 2010 Nov 2011 Jan 2011 Mar 2011 May 2011 Jul 2011 Sep 2011 Nov 2012 Jan 2012 Mar 2012 May 2012 Jul 2012 Sep 2012 Nov 2013 Jan 2013 Mar 2013 May 2013 Jul 2013 Sep 2013 Nov 2014 Jan 2014 Mar 2014 May 2014 Jul 2014 Sep 2014 Nov 2015 Jan 2015 Mar 2015 May 2015 Jul 2015 Sep 2015 Nov 2016 Jan 2016 Mar 2016 May 2016 Jul Percent per annum The Effects of Quantitative Easing: Interest Rates of Selected Economies Interest Rates of Selected Economies 15 14 China Taiwan 13 Malaysia 12 Singapore 11 Vietnam 10 United States Korea Indonesia Philippines Thailand Hong Kong 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0