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E D Q E = D P E D 33 1 3 % E D 18 1 b

E D E D E D E D E D E D E D E D ED ED 18 2 M ED 1 ED 3/1 3.0 R Ep 1/3 0.33 ED DD 1 18 3 B 2 ED B ED 3/13 DD 7 ED P 0 Q 0 P Q DD

18 4 A 1 Q 1 1 B 18 4

S m S m S s S s S l S l S l S l S l S l

AS AD AS AD SS DD AS AD SS DD

1000

1 DD 1 D D SS Q Q 1.9 0.9

E a F a F a J a J a K a D a D a

E b C b C b J b K b S b S b C c C c J c Kc S c S c

QP ED, f P b/ P ED P/ f P / ED 1 2 logq logc Klo / / /, DD ED

P P DD

664

19 3 3 2 [ 4 3 2 2 9 4 3 2 ] 19 3 b a

Mu Mu = P P 1 2 Mu = Λ Λ = P 3 89 93 92 90 81

1845 1844

U = 2 / 3log q + 1 / 3log q 1 2 d(log q ) / dq = 1 / q i i i MU1 = 2 / 3q 1, MU 2 = 1 / 3q 2 = Y = p1q1 + p2q2 = MU i MU / p = MU / p 1 1 2 2 2 / 3p 1q1 = 1 / 3p2q 2 p 1 q 1 q 1* = 2 / 3yp 1 P 1 = 1 p 2 = 2

B B B B B 6/4

U 1 U 2 U 3 U 4

3 1 3 1 1 2 1 1 2 F C 1C 6 6 1c NM NM 1 B NM

N M 3 F 1c 7 2 NM 6 3F 1C

P / P = = MU / MU F C F C

1933

12 1 2 %

A A 1932 R J 1966 1929 1929 200 80 1963 84.5 10

MC MC

MC AC MG MG AG MG AG AG 3 AIG 2 AG MG AG AG MG AG AG MC q q 3999 4000

21 3 MC 1 21 3 MC 1 q MC2 q TC MC a b b a a b b c a b TC /dq a a ba bc 1

S m S m S m S m

S m S m S s S s S s S s

P s

S S l l S S l l

10 1

S C S C S C S C S h S h

1975

6 3000 i = 2 4 ( 3000 ) 2 = 4 2 i = 36000000 = ( 6000) 2

22A 2

U AC MC

23 5 a dd MR MR MC MC 23 5 b TR TR TC

1984 24 1984 40 40 40 40 40 40

C 1954 5 771 787

F M 1980 464

1971 3 21 1974 356 358 1976 211 240

P M P R TR = qp = 15q 0. 05q 2 TC = q + 002. q 2

1978

1953

P 1 P D Q C

22 2

24 3 24 4

17 1979 102 103

1952 91

P M Q L P L P L Q l

P 1 P 2 P 1 A 1976 212 91

P2 P1 P1* P2*

P1* P2*

K F 1 263 7

80 24000 70

1/10 1 300 1984 50000

A B A B 30 80 100 5

L J L H 1981 8

1900

10.5 [ ] 1950 36.1 45.6

1968

200 300 100

L.A K L MP K MP A MP A MP PL MPL.PA MPA pk MPK. Q MP MP

20 70 29 6 J

MR L q MR A q

L A = =Λ Λ L A

1 1 q = L + A 2 2

1 2 Q = LA = L A 2Q = 2L MP L 2 2( MPL ) 2 Q = 2 < 0 2L 2L Q bl K A = 1 K

= = L A = =Λ Λ L A TC q MR MC TC 2L 3A

MR q MPi = Pi 1/MCq

MPi / Pi MR = MC q q Pi = MC q MPi Pi = MC q MPi MC

Q ak bl Q K L a b K L MPs 1 Q L2 MP 2 MP

FCC 6 1984 6 1968 12 13

18A 4

28 2 C

1982 15 300 1/10

28 4 28 5 3 1957

1970 100 49 99 52 85 46 68 42 67 36 64 40 63 45

28 5

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

P M L 1940 259 260

1 2 3 4 5 B L 1984

R w 1978

M J H J C B 1981

N V = $ i 5 100 5 100 B 1948 1980 1980 372

S S L L

4 1 2 4 1 2

30 1

100 = = 94 36 106 100 1 ( 1. 06) 2 1 1 6 1 0.06 1 0.06 t 1 8 0.06 0.08

N 1 N 2 Λ Λ N1 N2 N t V = + 2 + + t ( 1+ i) ( 1+ i) Λ ( 1+ i) N t N t

20 J A

H H 60 70 50 10 20 100 100 10000

O F M 1938 F A 1940

E R E P 32 2

u-p E

19 R A 1959 31A 1

100 MPD $10 $5 $6 $19 MPD MSD

32 7 P

1 22 2

1983

P OECD 11 1984 1

A M 1975 1256

R L 1980 1978 J A 1957

M 1962 M 1972 61 1971 5

L c 1983 S D T 1983 B B 1982 R B 1983

A 1982

P R R C 2 1981

F 1944

100 200 30 10 8 10000 16000 3 30 10 60 1324

f-p

3 2%( = 1% + 1 5%) 4 4 % = 3 4 1 4 3 4 1 4 Q 1 K % = ( %) + T. C. L 4 L 3 1 T. C. = Q % ( L %) ( K %) 4 4

Q 1 K % = ( %) + T. C. L 4 L 2. 1 2 = 4 ( 2) + T. C. = 0. 5 + 1. 7

3 4 1 4

1 1 2

1942

3 1 3 K S = g 001. = 003. 3 1 Q 3 60 70 F 1948 D 1957 Q $3000 3 $10000 K 3 $300 0.03 $10000 10 3 3 [ 4 13

4 3 3 K/Q 2 6 ]

υn g=i/k I gk I/Q s/q S g K/Q

1979

W 1919 1929 1941 1919 1939 1951 W 1966

200 3 0 200 1 200X 1.03 10 200 1.03 10 6 12 1 24 pessimismin pessimismout PIPO

1971

1 3

1 1 2

10 / 5 1 2 38 2 1 2 3 4 3 10 8 10 3a 10a 8 10 a b

MR MC

1/4 5 5.02 5.02 4.98 5 1914 4.87 1914

2 2 2 1 1 + + ( ) + Λ Λ = 3 3 1 2 = 3 ( ) 3 5 2 1 = 6 9 5 5 1 1 9 9 1 5 2 1 2 + + ( ) + Λ Λ = = 4 ( ) 9 1 4 1 9 1 4 9 3 9

PA P B

1944 1 1 /35