520 後臺美 中 關係的發展與展望 Taiwan-US-China Relations in the Aftermath of May 20, 2016 陳一新 (Chen, I-Hsin) 中國文化大學政治學系講座教授 摘要 520 520 WHA 3 G20 關鍵詞 : 美國亞洲再平衡政策 第八輪美 中 戰略與經濟對話 美 中 雙邊投資條約 九二共識 南海仲裁案 47
PROSPECT & EXPLORATION 第 14 卷第 9 期中華民國 105 年 9 月 壹 前言 520 520 520 6 AIT (International Civilian Aviation Organization, ICAO) 3 48
貳 520 後兩岸關係進入 冷和 與 冷對抗 1 2 一 九二共識 未完成試卷蔡可能永遠不會回答 520 21 3 22 TPP TPP 2015 40% 1 2 2016 5 20 2016 8 25 聯合新聞網 http://udn.com/news/story/9833/1708059 2016 5 20 2016 8 25 聯合新聞網 http://udn.com/news/ story/9833/1708059 2 2016 5 21 2016 8 25 聯合新聞網 http://udn.com/news/story/1/1709827 3 2016 5 21 2016 8 25 聯合新聞網 http://udn.com/news/story/1/1709753 49
PROSPECT & EXPLORATION 第 14 卷第 9 期中華民國 105 年 9 月 12% 4 5 23 UNCLCS 4 TPP 2 2016 5 23 2016 8 25 中時電子報 http://www.chinatimes.com/newspapers/20160523000303-260102 TPP 2016 5 23 2016 8 25 旺報 http://www.chinatimes.com/newspapers/20160523000652-260301 50
13 7,000 2018 8 4 5 5 ICAO 2016 8 5 2016 8 25 聯合新聞網 http://udn.com/news/ story/10167/1874696 51
PROSPECT & EXPLORATION 第 14 卷第 9 期中華民國 105 年 9 月 8 4 6 8 16 7 8 17 ECFA 23 ECFA 8 9 8 20 3 6 2016 8 5 2016 8 25 聯合新聞網 http://udn.com/news/story/10167/1874697 7 2016 8 17 2016 8 25 聯合新聞網 http://udn.com/news/story/6656/1900362 8 2016 8 18 2016 8 25 聯合新聞網 http://udn.com/news/story/9263/1902924- - 9 2016 8 18 2016 8 25 中央社 http://udn.com/news/story/4/1904761- -- 52
3 3 3 520 3 53
PROSPECT & EXPLORATION 第 14 卷第 9 期中華民國 105 年 9 月 二 美 中 共管臺灣迄八月仍進行 5 (WHO) 5 23 5 23 520 520 54
Susan Thornton 2016 5 3 8 10 520 5 3 11 2 10 U.S. Hopes Tsai Will Articulate Vision for Cross-Strait Ties: Official, CNA, 2016/05/04, http:// focustaiwan.tw/news/aipl/201605040028.aspx. 11 U.S. Hopes Tsai Will Articulate Vision for Cross-Strait Ties: Official, CNA, 2016/05/04, http:// focustaiwan.tw/news/aipl/201605040028.aspx. 55
PROSPECT & EXPLORATION 第 14 卷第 9 期中華民國 105 年 9 月 ICAO 12 ICAO Grace Choi 8 5 ICAO ICAO 13 三 AIT 6 位官員表態支持蔡政府 AIT 5 26 6 Douglas Paal Kin Moy Raymond F. Burghardt William Anthony Stanton Stephen M. Young Christopher J. Marut 14 (A message from the AIT directors to the people of Taiwan) 1999 6 5 12 (2016-08-05) 聯合報 http://udn.com/ news/story/10167/1874699-13 ICAO (2016-08-05) 聯合晚報 http://udn.com/ news/story/10167/1875353- ICAO 14 A Message from AIT Directors to the People of Taiwan, A Film released by the American Institute in Taiwan (AIT) on May 25, 2016, demonstrating that the current and former five AIT directors have a special message for the people of Taiwan: the U.S.-Taiwan friendship spans decades and will only continue to grow. https://www.ait.org.tw/en/video-message-from-aitdirectors.html. 56
6 參 從第八輪美 中 戰略與經濟對話 (S&E D) 看雙方競合關係 2016 6 5 7 (John Kerry) Jacob J. Lew 6 5 (Blinken) 57
PROSPECT & EXPLORATION 第 14 卷第 9 期中華民國 105 年 9 月 15 Ashton Carter 16 一 從第八輪 S&E D 看美 中 經貿與碳排放合作 BIT 6 6 17 S&E D (BIT) 18 6 13 6 13 BIT RQFII 15 Joint Press Availability With Mongolian Foreign Minister Lundeg, Remarks by John Kerry, made Secretary of State, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia, June 5, 2016, available at http://www.state.gov/secretary/remarks/2016/06/258078.htm (accessed June 7, 2016). 16 Carter Warns of Chinese Great Wall of Self-Isolation, Wendell Minnick, Defense News 3:05 p.m. EDT June 4, 2016, http://www.defensenews.com/story/defense/international/asiapacific/2016/06/04/carter-warns-chinese-great-wall-self-isolation/85404752/. 17 S&ED Opening Session Remarks, Remarks by John Kerry, Secretary of State Secretary of Treasury Jack Lew, Chinese President Xi Jinping, Chinese Vice Premier Liu Yandong, Chinese Vice Premier Wang Yang, and Chinese State Councilor Yang Jiechi, at Diaoyutai State Guesthouse, Beijing, China June 6, 2016, http://www.state.gov/secretary/remarks/2016/06/258091. htm. 18 U.S.-China Strategic & Economic Dialogue Outcomes of the Strategic Track, Media Note Office of the Spokesperson, Washington, DC, June 7, 2016, http://www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/ ps/2016/06/258146.htm. 58
6 7 RQFII 2,500 19 6 20 2008 2009 2011 50 1.1 1.5 21 S&E D 19 U.S.-China Strategic & Economic Dialogue Outcomes of the Strategic Track, Media Note Office of the Spokesperson, Washington, DC, June 7, 2016, http://www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/ ps/2016/06/258146.htm. 20 S&ED Opening Session Remarks, Remarks by John Kerry, Secretary of State Secretary of Treasury Jack Lew, Chinese President Xi Jinping, Chinese Vice Premier Liu Yandong, Chinese Vice Premier Wang Yang, and Chinese State Councilor Yang Jiechi, at Diaoyutai State Guesthouse, Beijing, China June 6, 2016, http://www.state.gov/secretary/remarks/2016/06/258091. htm. 21 U.S.-China Strategic & Economic Dialogue Outcomes of the Strategic Track, Media Note Office of the Spokesperson, Washington, DC, June 7, 2016, http://www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/ ps/2016/06/258146.htm. 59
PROSPECT & EXPLORATION 第 14 卷第 9 期中華民國 105 年 9 月 2015 2017 22 23 2016 24 二 從第八輪 S&E D 看美 中 戰略 軍事 網路競爭 2016 5 31 (Daniel Russel) (Catherine A. Novelli) 25 22 Remarks by President Obama and President Xi of the People's Republic of China in Joint Press Conference, The White House, Office of the Press Secretary, September 22, 2015, https:// www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2015/09/23/conference-call-preview-visit-president-xijinping-peoples-republic; and Juliet Eilperin, A Smiling Pope, A Fallen Speaker And Two Tough Guys-Obama s Crazy Week, The Washington Post, September 26, 2015, http://www. washingtonpost.com/politics/a-smiling-pope-a-fallen-speaker-and-two-tough-guys--obamascrazy-week/2015/09/26/9127cf22-645a-11e5-8e9e-dce8a2a2a679_story.html. 23 Regarding the U.S.-China Joint Presidential Statement on Climate Change, John Kerry, Secretary of State, Washington, DC, September 25, 2015, http://www.state.gov/secretary/ remarks/2015/09/247296.htm; and FACT SHEET: The United States and China Issue Joint Presidential Statement on Climate Change with New Domestic Policy Commitments and a Common Vision for an Ambitious Global Climate Agreement in Paris, The White House, Office of the Press Secretary, September 25, 2015, https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-pressoffice/2015/09/25/fact-sheet-united-states-and-china-issue-joint-presidential-statement. 24 U.S.-China Strategic and Economic Dialogue VIII Strategic Track Select Outcomes, Fact Sheet, Office of the Spokesperson, Washington, DC, June 7, 2016, http://www.state.gov/r/pa/ prs/ps/2016/06/258157.htm; and The United States and China Build on Paris Agreement and Strengthen Climate Change Cooperation, Media Note, Office of the Spokesperson, Washington, DC, June 8, 2016, http://www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/ps/2016/06/258179.htm. 25 Previewing the Strategic and Economic Dialogue with China, Special Briefing,Catherine A. Novelli, Under Secretary for Economic Growth, Energy, and the Environment; Daniel R. Russel, Assistant Secretary, Bureau of East Asian and Pacific Affairs, Press Briefing Room, Washington, DC, May 31, 2016, http://www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/ps/2016/05/257847.htm. 60
2016 6 6 S & E D 三 美 中 雙方在網路安全競大於合的關係 2015 26 27 26 Ellen Nakashima and Steven Mufson, U.S., China Vow Not To Engage in Economic Cyberespionage, The Washington Post, Sept. 26, 2015, https://www.washingtonpost.com/ national/us-china-vow-not-to-engage-in-economic-cyberespionage/2015/09/25/90e74b6a-63b9-11e5-8e9e-dce8a2a2a679_story.html. 27 Ellen Nakashima and Steven Mufson, U.S., China Vow Not To Engage in Economic Cyberespionage, The Washington Post, Sept. 26, 2015, https://www.washingtonpost.com/ national/us-china-vow-not-to-engage-in-economic-cyberespionage/2015/09/25/90e74b6a-63b9-11e5-8e9e-dce8a2a2a679_story.html. 61
PROSPECT & EXPLORATION 第 14 卷第 9 期中華民國 105 年 9 月 (Kenneth Liberthal) 28 29 2016 2012 30 2013 Edward Snowden 28 Ellen Nakashima and Steven Mufson, U.S., China Vow Not To Engage in Economic Cyberespionage, The Washington Post, Sept. 26, 2015, https://www.washingtonpost.com/ national/us-china-vow-not-to-engage-in-economic-cyberespionage/2015/09/25/90e74b6a-63b9-11e5-8e9e-dce8a2a2a679_story.html. 29 Remarks by President Obama and President Xi of the People's Republic of China in Joint Press Conference, The White House, Office of the Press Secretary, Rose Garden, September 25, 2015, https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2015/09/25/remarks-president-obama-and-presidentxi-peoples-republic-china-joint. 30 Michael Forsythe, Ousted Communist Official s Brother Is Living in United States, China Says, The New York Times, January 15, 2016, http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/16/world/asia/lingwancheng-us.html. 62
四 美 中 將繼續在東北亞與東南亞展開競合關係 2016 (CSIS) 凃 (Dang Cam TU) (Regional Strategic Challenges and East Asia Summit) 31 凃 (National Committee on American Foreign Policy) T. J. Pempel US-China-ROK-Japan Quadrilateral Dialogue 32 Pempel (AIIB) (ADB) 31 Dang Cam TU, Regional Strategic Challenges and East Asia Summit, PacNet#42 Honolulu, Hawaii, May 11, 2016. 32 T. J Pempel, Report on US-China-ROK-Japan Quadrilateral Dialogue, (New York: National Committee on American Foreign Policy, 2016), NCAFP. May 2016 Quadrilateral_Pempel.pdf. 63
PROSPECT & EXPLORATION 第 14 卷第 9 期中華民國 105 年 9 月 (TPP) (RECP) 肆 南海仲裁臺灣受傷慘重美 中 雙方船過水無痕 3 ( ) 64
1970 2016 7 12 (Robert A. Manning) (James Przystup ) 2016 65
PROSPECT & EXPLORATION 第 14 卷第 9 期中華民國 105 年 9 月 7 21 3 33 (David Brunnstrom ) (Matt Spetalnick) 7 27 34 7 24 27 Susan Rice 4 35 7 25 36 33 Robert A. Manning and James Przystup, How To Explain Xi Jinping s Mounting Foreign Policy Failures, Foreign Policy, July 112, 2016, http://foreignpolicy.com/2016/07/21/how-to-explainxi-jinpings-mounting-foreign-policy-failures/. 34 David Brunnstrom and Matt Spetalnick, U.S. Diplomatic Strategy on South China Sea Appears To Founder, Reuters, July 27, 2016, http://uk.reuters.com/article/southchinasea-usa-diplomacyidukl1n1ad2jz. 35 Statement by National Security Council Spokesperson Ned Price on National Security Advisor Susan E. Rice's Travel to China, The White House, Office of the Press Secretary, July 22, 2016, https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2016/07/22/statement-national-security-councilspokesperson-ned-price-national. 36 Statement by NSC Spokesperson Ned Price on National Security Advisor Susan E. Rice s Meetings in Beijing, China, The White House, Office of the Press Secretary, July 25, 2016, https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2016/07/25/statement-nsc-spokesperson-ned-pricenational-security-advisor-susan-e. 66
37 (BIT) G-20 7 26 (Rodrigo Duterte) 38 7 26 37 Ambassador Susan Rice, National Security Advisor, Why I m Here: The Importance of the U.S. - China Relationship, The White House, Office of the Press Secretary, July 26, 2016, https://medium.com/@whitehouse/why-im-here-the-importance-of-the-u-s-china-relationshipefb3fd167d81#.j9ey52hq4. 38 Press Availability in Vientiane, Laos, John Kerry, Secretary of State, National Convention Center, Vientiane, Laos, July 26, 2016, http://www.state.gov/secretary/remarks/2016/07/260475.htm. 67
PROSPECT & EXPLORATION 第 14 卷第 9 期中華民國 105 年 9 月 39 40 41 (Permanent Court of Arbitration, PCA) 42 Elizabeth Trudeau (International Court of Justice, ICJ) 39 Press Availability in Vientiane, Laos, John Kerry, Secretary of State, National Convention Center, Vientiane, Laos, July 26, 2016, http://www.state.gov/secretary/remarks/2016/07/260475.htm. 40 John Kirby, Spokesperson Daily Press Briefing, Washington, DC, July 12, 2016, http://www. state.gov/r/pa/prs/dpb/2016/07/259605.htm#china. 41 John Kirby, Spokesperson Daily Press Briefing, Washington, DC, July 12, 2016, http://www. state.gov/r/pa/prs/dpb/2016/07/259605.htm#china; Mark C. Toner, Deputy Spokesperson Daily Press Briefing, Washington, DC, July 13, 2016, http://www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/ dpb/2016/07/259951.htm#china; and Elizabeth Trudeau, Director, Press Office Daily Press Briefing, Washington, DC, July 14, 2016, http://www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/dpb/2016/07/260032. htm#china. 42 John Kirby, Spokesperson Daily Press Briefing, Washington, DC, July 12, 2016, http://www. state.gov/r/pa/prs/dpb/2016/07/259605.htm#china. 68
(PCA) 43 PCA ICJ, (Graham Allison) 7 11 ( 44 45 (Rigoberto D. Tiglao) 7 14 (The Manila Times) 3,000 46 (Mark C. Toner) 47 43 Elizabeth Trudeau, Director, Press Office Daily Press Briefing, Washington, DC, July 14, 2016, http://www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/dpb/2016/07/260032.htm#china. 44 Graham Allison, Of Course China, Like All Great Powers, Will Ignore an International Legal Verdict,, July 11, 2016, http://thediplomat.com/2016/07/of-course-china-like-all-great-powerswill-ignore-an-international-legal-verdict/. Cited by a correspondent at the Daily Press Briefing of DoS, John Kirby, Spokesperson Daily Press Briefing, Washington, DC, July 12, 2016, http:// www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/dpb/2016/07/259605.htm#china. 45 John Kirby, Spokesperson Daily Press Briefing, Washington, DC, July 12, 2016, http://www. state.gov/r/pa/prs/dpb/2016/07/259605.htm#china. 46 Rigoberto D. Tiglao, Psst All Superpowers Usually Ignore International Verdicts, The Manila Times, July 14, 2016. http://www.manilatimes.net/psst-all-superpowers-usually-ignoreinternational-verdicts/273798/. 47 Mark C. Toner, Deputy Spokesperson Daily Press Briefing, Washington, DC, July 18, 2016, http://www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/dpb/2016/07/260226.htm#china. 69
PROSPECT & EXPLORATION 第 14 卷第 9 期中華民國 105 年 9 月 48 (Mark C. Toner) 49 (John Kirby) 50 51 7 48 John Kirby, Spokesperson Daily Press Briefing, Washington, DC, July 12, 2016, http://www. state.gov/r/pa/prs/dpb/2016/07/259605.htm#china. 49 Mark C. Toner, Deputy Spokesperson Daily Press Briefing, Washington, DC, July 13, 2016, http://www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/dpb/2016/07/259951.htm#china. 50 John Kirby, Spokesperson Daily Press Briefing, Washington, DC, July 12, 2016, http://www. state.gov/r/pa/prs/dpb/2016/07/259605.htm#china. 51 Mark C. Toner, Deputy Spokesperson Daily Press Briefing, Washington, DC, July 13, 2016, http://www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/dpb/2016/07/259951.htm#china. 70
16 52 伍 結論 520 520 6 3 52 Elizabeth Trudeau, Spokesperson Daily Press Briefing, Washington, DC, August 15, 2016, http:// www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/dpb/2016/07/259951.htm#china. 71
PROSPECT & EXPLORATION 第 14 卷第 9 期中華民國 105 年 9 月 ( ) 5 (THAAD) 200 THAAD 2,000 THAAD 72
(TPP) 73