28 5 Vol.28 No.5 2012 10 JOURNAL OF TROPICAL METEOROLOGY Oct. 2012. [J]. 2012 28(5): 609-620. :1004-4965(2012)05-0609-12 ( 210093) 1949 2007 CMA-STI 1949 1975 1976 1987 1988 2007 7 10 ( TC) TC TC ( ) TC (1) TC (2) TC (3) TC TC 850 hpa 200 hpa TC TC TC : :P462.4 :A Doi 10.3969/j.issn.1004-4965.2012.05.001 1 (TC) TC TC TC [1] TC TC TC TC TC Chan [2] TC TC [3-7] TC [8-10] Wang [11] Hirotaka [12] [13] TC TC [14] 1951 2004 2010-10-18; 2012-03-18 2006CB403600 40775043 200802840022 E-mail jiangj@nju.edu.cn
610 28 [15] 1945 2005 TC [16] TC TC TC TC [17] [18] TC 1 000 km ( ) [19] TC TC TC 1975 1976 1987 1988 TC 1949 2007 1 12 TC 7 10 7 10 TC 1949 2007 1949 1975 1976 1987 1988 2007 7 10 TC TC TC TC TC TC TC 2 2.1 TC CMA-STI ( www.typhoon.gov.cn) 1949 2007 ( 180 ) CMA-STI TC 6 h NCEP/NCAR 1949 2007 500 hpa 200 hpa 850 hpa 2.2 TC (ACE, Accumulative Cyclone Energy) TC Bell [20] TC ACE TC TC 6 h m/s ACE= m n j= 1 i= 1 u n TC m TC ACE TC TC TC ACE (TDP) [21] (PDI) [22] TC [11] ACE TC TC 6 u>17.2 m/s TC( TC) 2.2.1 500 hpa 10 60 N 110 E 180 586 dgpm 500 hpa 588 dgpm 588 586 500 hpa 10 60 N 110 E 180 586 2 i
5 611 dgpm 585 dgpm ( 586 1 587 2 588 3 ) 500 hpa 110 150 E 17 ( 2.5 ) H(H 586 dgpm) 500 hpa 110 150 E 588 dgpm 500 hpa 90 E 180 588 dgpm 2.2.2 200 hpa 20 60 N 90 E 120 W 25 m/s 200 hpa 20 60 N 90 E 120 W 25 m/s 24 m/s ( 25 1 26 2 27 3 ) 200 hpa 0 60 N 90 E 120 W 61 ( 2.5 ) U(U 25 m/s) 200 hpa 0 60 N 90 E 120 W 25 m/s 2.2.3 200 hpa 20 S 20 N 100 E 180-10 m/s 200 hpa 20 S 20 N 100 E 180-9 m/s -10 m/s ( -10 1-11 2-12 3 ) 200 hpa 20 S 20 N 100 E 180 33 ( 2.5 ) U(U -10 m/s) 200 hpa 20 S 20 N 100 E 180-10 m/s 2.2.4 850 hpa 5 25 N 105 E 180 850 hpa 5 25 N 105 E 180 (5 25 N 105 120 E) (5 25 N 120 140 E) (5 25 N 140 E 180 ) 5 25 N 105 E 180 ( ) 3 7 10 TC TC 1949 2007 1949 1975 1976 1987 1988 2007 7 10 TC 1a 7 10 TC 1b TC
612 28 1a 7 10 TC 1949 1975 TC 1976 1987 1988 2007 TC 1b 1976 1987 1988 2007 TC 1949 1975 TC TC TC TC TC 1 1949 1975 1976 1987 1988 2007 7 10 TC (ACE) (a 10 4 m 2 /s 2 ) ACE (b) 4 TC TC TC TC TC ( ) [19] TC TC ACE 1.0 TC -1.0 TC 1b 1949 2007 TC 1958 1959 1965 1967 1968 1972 1982 1987 1992 1994 1997 11 TC 1949 1950 1952 1973 1974 1975 1977 1995 1998 1999 10 TC TC TC TC
5 613 TC TC 500 hpa 200 hpa 850 hpa TC TC TC 4.1 500 hpa 2a 2b TC 7 10 500 hpa 2a 2b - TC ( 2a) 20 N 95% - TC TC 2 TC (a) (b)500 hpa 500 hpa 95% 1949 2007 7 10 500 hpa 5 860 5 880 500 hpa TC TC ( 2b) - 45 N 120 E 95% TC TC TC TC TC TC 1 1949 2007 7 10 TC 1 TC 99% 90% TC TC TC TC TC TC 500 hpa
614 28 1 1949 2007 7 10 TC (ACE) TCACE -0.508 1 ** -0.483 9 ** 0.224 9 * -0.075 5 0.497 7 ** ** 99% * 90% 4.2 200 hpa Lu [23] Lin [24] [25] 3a 3b TC 7 10 200 hpa TC ( 3a) 30 N 110 E 30 N 180 120 E 120 E 180 140 E 140 E 180 1949 2007 7 10-10 m/s -20 m/s 20 m/s 30 m/s TC TC 200 hpa TC ( 3b) 50 N 180 120 E 120 E 140 E 0 165 E 0 165 W 140 E 5 N 120 E 1949 2007 7 10-10 m/s -20 m/s 20 m/s 30 m/s TC TC 200 hpa TC TC 2 3 1949 2007 7 10 TC 2 1949 2007 7 10 TC (ACE) TCACE -0.060 1-0.152 3-0.160 6-0.098 1 3 1949 2007 7 10 TC (ACE) TCACE 0.418 2 ** 0.244 6 * -0.354 7 ** 0.504 6 ** ** 99% * 90% 2 TC 3 TC 99% 90% TC TC TC TC TC TC 200 hpa TC 200 hpa TC 200 hpa 200 hpa TC 4.3 850 hpa
5 615 3 TC (a) (b) 200 hpa 200 hpa m/s 200 hpa 10-6 s -1 1949 2007 7 10 200 hpa -10 m/s -20 m/s 20 m/s 30 m/s 4 TC (a) (b) 850 hpa 850 hpa m/s 850 hpa 10-5 s -1 [26]
616 28 [27] 4a 4b( ) TC 7 10 850 hpa TC 7 10 850 hpa TC ( 4a) 120 E 5 5 20 N 130 E 180 TC 850 hpa TC TC TC ( 4b) 120 E TC 5 10 20 N 130 E 180 TC 850 hpa TC TC TC 7 10 [19] TC 4 1949 2007 7 10 TC 4 TC 99% 98% TC TC TC TC 75% TC TC TC TC TC TC 4 1949 2007 7 10 TC (ACE) TCACE 0.345 7 ** -0.065 3 0.462 6 ** -0.322 5 * ** 99% * 98% TC 500 hpa 200 hpa 850 hpa TC 2 4 1960 1990 95% ( ) TC 5 TC TC TC 2.5 2.5
5 617 TC 10 2 m/s 850 hpa 2 m/s 500 hpa 5 880 5 860 200 hpa 30 m/s 20 m/s -10 m/s -15 m/s 850 hpa 5a 5b TC 5 10 2 m/s 10 30 N 110 E 180 25 10 2 m/s 20 N 125 E 20 N 135 E TC 5 10 2 m/s 10 30 N 110 140 E 15 10 2 m/s 20 N 120 E TC TC TC 5 10 2 m/s 5 TC (a) (b)tc TC 10 2 m/s 500 hpa 5 880 5 860 gpm 200 hpa 30 m/s 20 m/s -10 m/s -15 m/s m/s 850 hpa 2 m/s m/s 850 hpa TC TC 500 hpa 5 860 200 hpa -10 m/s 200 hpa TC 200 hpa 850 hpa TC TC (1) 200 hpa ( ) TC TC TC TC (2) TC (5 30 N 120 160 E) TC TC -3.48-2.16 TC TC [19] 1949 2007 7 10 TC (5 30 N 120 160 E) TC -0.436 5 99% TC TC -3.76 TC TC
618 28 TC TC TC TC -2.46 TC TC TC TC TC 5 1949 1975 1976 1987 1988 2007 7 10 ( TC) (ACE) TC 7 10 TC (1) 1949 1975 1976 1987 1988 2007 TC 1949 1975 TC 1976 1987 1988 2007 (2) TC 850 hpa TC 850 hpa (3) TC (85 90 E) (150 E) TC [19] [27] TC - TC 80% 85% [1] TC TC 850 hpa 200 hpa TC TC TC TC TC 850 hpa 200 hpa TC TC TC TC ( )
5 619 (1) TC [28] TC El Niño TC La Niña [29] El Niño La Niña El Niño La Niña [30] TC 500 hpa 100 hpa TC TC (2) TC TC TC TC TC TC [1] [M] 1999 173-188 [2] CHAN J C L Interannual and interdecadal variations of tropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific[J] Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics 2005 143-15 [3] 50 1949-1996 [J] 1999 15(1) 10-16 [4] [J] 2004 20(1) 14-23 [5] HO Chang Hoi BAIK Jong-Jin KIM Joo-Hong et al. Interdecadal Changes in Summertime Typhoon Tracks[J]. American Meteorological Society 2004 17 1767-1776 [6] [J] 2002 13(2) 218-227 [7] [J] 2002 18(4) 289-301 [8] [J] 2007 65(5) 683-694 [9] 1998 [J] 2000 16(1) 85-90 [10] 2000 [J] 2002 28(4) 15-20 [11] WANG Xiaoling WU Liguang REN Fumin et al. Influences of Tropical Cyclones on China During 1965~2004[J] Advances In Atmospheric Sciences 2008 25(3) 417-426 [12] HIROTAKA Kamahori NOBU Yamazaki NOBUTAKA Mannoji et al. Variability in intense tropical cyclone days in the western north pacific [J] SOLA 2006 2(1) 104-107 [13] [J] 2006 64(3) 357-363 [14] 1951-2004 [J] 2008 25(1) 65-73 [15] 60 [J] 2008 66(2) 213-223 [16] [J] 2002 60(6) 680-687 [17] [J] 2005 63(5) 636-645 [18] [J] 2005 33(1) 1-6 [19] [M] 1979 64-205 [20] GERALD D B MICHAEL s h et al Climate Assessment for 1999[J] Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 2000 81(6) S1-S50 [21] GRAY W M LANDSEA C W MIELKE P W et al Predicting Atlantic seasonal hurricane activity 6~11 months in advance[j] Wea Forecasting 1992 7(3) 440-455 [22] EMANUAL K Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years[j] Nature 2005 436(4) doi 1038/nature03906 [23] LU Riyu Associations among the componentc of the East Asian Summer Monsoon System in the meridional direction[j] J Meteor Soc Japan
620 28 2004 82 155-165 [24] LIN Zhongda LU Riyu Interannual meridional displacement of the East Asian Upper-tropospheric jet stream in summer[j] Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2005 22(2) 199-211 [25] [J] 1999 23(1) 62-70 [26] [J] 1956, 27(1) 87-100 [27] FUJITA T T WATANABE K IZAWA. Formation and structure of equatorial anticyclones caused by large-scale cross-equatorial flows determined by ATC-1 photograph[j] J Appl Met 1969, 8(4) 649-667 [28] [J] 2004 20(2) 218-224 [29] [J] 1999 15(1) 17-25 [30] [J] 2000 19(4) 397-404 THE INTER-ANNUAL VARIATION CHARACTERISTICS OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY IN THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AND ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION BACKGROUND ANALYSIS LAI Fen-fen, JIANG Jing (School of Atmospheric Science, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210093, China) Abstract:Based on the CMA-STI Tropical Cyclone Best Track Data from 1949 to 2007, the inter-annual variation characteristics of the tropical storm or typhoon (TC) intensity in the Western North Pacific between July and October in 1949 1975, 1976 1987, 1988 2007 are respectively investigated. And by way of composite analysis and correlation analysis, the mechanism of the inter-annual variation characteristics of the TC intensity in the Western North Pacific is investigated. The results show as follows: (1) There is an obvious inter-annual variation of the TC intensity in 1949 1975, 1976 1987, 1988 2007 respectively; (2) During the strong TC years, the Western North Pacific Subtropical High (WNPSH) becomes weaker and is more northward and eastward than normal. Meanwhile, the 200 hpa Eastern Asian Subtropical Westerly Jet(EASWJ) locates more southward than normal. Besides, the 200 hpa Tropical Easterly Jet(TEJ) becomes stronger and locates more eastward than normal. Furthermore, the cold air in the Southern Hemisphere becomes stronger and the cross-equatorial flow strengths so that the monsoon trough (MT) becomes more active and locates more eastward, and vice versa; (3) When the corss-equatorial flow strengths and the MT becomes more active, it is in favor of the development of the tropical depression in the TC generation area. Besides, the WNPSH becomes weaker and locates eastward, and the TEJ locates easterward. In this way, the low level is convergent while the high level is divergent so that the convergent updraft in the TC generation area and the divergent outflow in the high level are maintained, and the vertical wind shear is less, which is in favor of the development of the TC; and vice versa. Key words:climatology; statistic characteristics; composite analysis; tropical cyclone intensity; Subtropical High; Tropical Easterly Jet; Monsoon Trough