1996 3
1984 8 1995 7 11 1994 96.5 1933 5 6 4 16 907-1125 1959 4 54 1965 70 200 1982 11 2
21 21 60 50 70 80 90 200 100 3
200 11 60 4
3000 500 5
15 1 100 20 5 10 200300 50 1994 11600 40 1984 40 6
11 1994 85.4 1985 17.7 10 4 22 8 86.7% 10 15 30 300 1018 1092 7
90% 8
190 9
1995 7 25 10
21 CERS Chinese Ethnosociological Research System 95 6 SunSoft 56 CERS, CERS, YEP (Yunnan Ethnos Population, ) 11
(ERS YEP/1953~1987 ) 1953 1964 1978 1979 1980 1981 563.49 640.25 948.42 963.88 983.15 1002.22 1149.79 1410.70 2143.05 2170.91 2190.24 2220.55 1713.27 2050.95 3091.47 3134.79 3173.39 3222.77 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1032.17 1046.13 1065.16 1085.15 1110.96 1135.39 2250.89 2272.92 2297.11 2321.07 2244.68 2377.61 3283.05 3319.5 3362.27 3406.21 3455.64 3513.00 19531964 1982 1989 7 1953 1987 1990 1987 = o7 p(t)=a+bt p(t) t b a 1953~1987 1990 1990 25% 12
53% [1] 1953 p(t)=ce rt 1953~1987 15% 0.993 0.985 2000 1. 1,500 2. 2,900 3. 52:100 4. 35% 4,300 4,456 4,337 4,280 [2] 2000 4,400 CERS 13
(YEP) Excel/Lotus SPSS / A. B C.D.? X. 3 W. 5 Z. 10 CERS 1953 SPSS SPSS Internet 14
70 (paradigm) (examples) [3] [4] 1 1987 7 2 3 1994 4 45~48 4.S. 1981, 15
100871 0106275-1249 16