97-WTO-1-1

... I... III... i...1...1...9...13...13...30...46...62...70 WTO...81 WTO...82...91...100...110...131...131...133 I

...150...168...179...179...187...217...231...235...235...257...272...295...317...317...331...339 1 2 2008 3 2008 4 2004 5-1 5-2 5-3 II

2-2-1...32 2-2-2 2004-2007 22...38 2-2-3 2-2-4 2-2-5 2004-2007 22...39 2004-2007...40 2004-2007...40 2-2-6 2008...41 2-3-1...48 2-3-2...50 2-3-3 2005 2007...56 2-3-4 2005 2007...57 2-3-5...58 2-3-6...61 2-4-1...63 2-4-2...65 2-5-1 SWOT...78 3-2-1 2006 2008...95 3-2-2 ( 2008 3 )...97 3-3-1 2006 2008... 106 3-3-2 ( 2008 3 )... 108 3-3-3 ( 2008 3 )... 109 III

4-2-1 1995 2006 ( )134 4-2-2 1995 2005 ( )... 134 4-2-3... 137 4-2-4 (2004 2007 )... 141 4-2-5 (2004 2007 )... 143 4-2-6 (2004 2008 )... 144 4-2-7 (2004 2008 )... 145 4-2-8 (2004 2007 )... 146 4-2-9 (2004 2007 )... 147 4-2-10 (2004 2008 )... 148 4-2-11 (2004 2008 )... 149 4-3-1 (2004 2007 )... 150 4-3-2 (2004 2007 )... 152 4-3-3 IV

(2004 2008 )... 153 4-3-4 (2004 2008 )... 155 4-3-5 (2004 2007 )... 156 4-3-6 (2004 2007 )... 157 4-3-7 (2004 2008 )... 158 4-3-8 (2004 2008 )... 159 4-3-9 (2004 2007 )... 160 4-3-10 (2004 2007 )... 161 4-3-11 (2004 2008 )... 162 4-3-12 (2004 2008 )... 164 4-3-13 (2004 2007 )... 165 4-3-14 (2004 2007 )... 166 4-3-15 (2004 2008 )... 166 V

4-3-16 (2004 2008 )... 167 4-4-1 (2004 2007 ). 169 4-4-2 (2004 2008 )... 171 4-4-3... 172 4-4-4 (2004 2007 ). 173 4-4-5 (2004 2008 )... 175 4-4-6... 177 5-2-1... 188 5-2-2 2006... 196 5-2-3 2006... 198 5-2-4 2006... 199 5-2-5 2006... 200 5-2-6 2006... 201 5-2-7 2006... 202 5-2-8 2006... 203 VI

5-2-9 2006... 204 5-2-10 2006... 205 5-2-11 2006... 206 5-2-12 2006... 207 5-2-13 2006... 208 5-2-14 2006... 209 5-2-15 2006... 210 5-2-16 2006... 211 5-2-17 2006... 212 5-2-18 2006... 213 5-2-19 2006... 214 5-2-20 2006... 215 5-2-21 2006 VII

... 216 5-3-1... 223 5-3-2 Tobit Model... 225 5-3-3 Tobit Model... 227 5-3-4 Tobit Model... 228 5-3-5 Tobit Model >50% >0... 230 5-3-6 Tobit Model... 230 5-4-1... 231 5-4-2... 232 5-4-3... 233 6-1-1 2005 2008 1-4... 236 6-1-2 2005 2008 1-4... 238 6-1-3 2004-2007... 245 6-1-4 2004-2007... 247 6-1-5 2004-2007... 249 6-1-6 2004-2007... 251 6-1-7 2004-2007... 253 6-1-8 2004-2007... 255 6-2-1... 262 VIII

6-2-2... 262 6-2-3... 264 6-2-4 /... 264 6-2-5... 269 6-2-6... 269 6-2-7... 270 6-2-8... 270 6-3-1... 274 6-3-2... 275 6-3-3 ( )... 277 6-3-4... 280 6-3-5... 282 6-3-6... 284 6-4-1 10... 296 6-4-2... 297 6-4-3... 299 6-4-4 2004~2007... 300 6-4-5 (2007 1~3 / )... 301 6-4-6... 304 IX

WTO (1) (2) 2006 12 11 WTO 2007 2008 2008 i

ii 2008 08 07 11 10% 10% 1.81% 1

iii 10% 1.68% 2.55%~4.98%

10.8% 40% 27% 23.8% 73% 2% 36.7% 37% 3% 68% 48% 29.7% 44% 23% 29.1% 49% 11% 36% 48% 17% 2008 7 2009 1 1 1,500 2008 11 2009 iv

2007 v

2006 " " GDP 2000 0.4 GDP 1993 2004 17 1994 1 2003 6 12 73 307 2005 8.7 241 1

2004 7 1 2005 1,000 2006 2007 65 70% 2005 GDP 2 WTO 2007 4 2008 WTO 2001 WTO WTO 2 8 2 PPP 2007 12 17 PPP 9% 23% 7% 14% 2

GDP WTO 3.9% 7.5% GDP 1,038 2,300 15.3% 9.9% 15% 13% 2006 12 11 WTO WTO 2006 2007 30 3 WTO 15 WTO 15 3 2006 4,300 3

2007 76 2004 4 13 2005 7 27 2006 11 2007 3 30 1986 23 2007 9 14 WTO WTO WTO WTO 10 2007 4 15 30 101 4

4 2007 7 1 37% 553 2,268 10 4 5

2. 2008 5 1999 5 27 5 2,705.3 47.4 35.4% 1,366.3 26.4 5.5 1,339 46.1 23.5 2,411.5 42.3 14% 4.8 1,526.5 14.8% 9.2 885 12.6% 1.7 6

1995 43% 2005 52% (Wang and Wei 2008 Fishman and Wei, 2004 Fishman, et al., 2008 6 2007 2~3 5 4 7.2% 6 7

WTO 1 WTO 2 3 8

WTO WTO WTO WTO 9

WTO WTO 10

1 2 2008 8 3 2008 4 2004 5-1 5-2 5-3 11

WTO 13

1995 WTO 2002 15 2005 30 2006 25 99 63 2 21 5 ITC 337 13 2006 20.5 0.2 2007 20 81 36 0.3 63 8 10 337 17 20 30.8% 69% WTO 15 WTO 15 14

0.5% 2016 2002 2003 2004 4 2007 12 76 1 1998 4 5 2 2005 10 6 2006 9 8 6 6 15

1 2 3 4. 2004 4 2004 4 13 18 10 4 11 9 2% 16

. 1983 2005 7 27 10 2006 11 2007 3 30 4 2 10.9 20.35 1986 9 14 WTO 10 18 21.12 99.65 7.4 44.25 23 11 20 WTO 10 17

2007 1 1 2008 7 24 10 1 2007 6 2008 4 10 4 2 10 3 2007 3 2007 2008 8 2008 4 2008 7 31 Nashville Wire Products Inc., SSW Holding Company, Inc., United Steel, Paper and Forestry, Rubber, Manufacturing, Energy, Allied-Industrial and Service Workers International Union USW and the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers, District Lodge 6 Kitchen Appliance Shelving and Racks. 2008 3 26 WTO 2008 7 2 7 14 Statement of Essential Facts 11 1 18

12 16 2005 7 21 2.4 8.09 1 0.01 RMB/$ 2008 4 7 RMB/$ 14 2008 3 2005 6 2008 3 8% 2008 7 6.85 1 6 6.82 6.83 8 6 6.8525 1 7 30 19

7 1970 8 1980 1981-1993 9 2.8 RMB/$ 1994 8.27 RMB/$ 200 1994-1997 1997-2005 2005 7 2007 8 1970 9 : 1981~1984 1985 1988 20

2005 7 21 1. 10 1 2 3 10 200 2008 2007 518 7-8 21

11 2003 12 2005 1 2 3 4 5 11 2003 1 9 1-3 12 2005 552 96-104 2005 8 22

2007 2006 2010 2500 FDI 30 2. 倂 倂 2002 2007 25 187.6 7 60% 2007 920.5 2007 187.2 6.2% 滙 倂 IBM 13 2007 13 2007 23

1. 2. 3. 4. Paul Krugman impossible trinity 2005 7 2007 2007 1 2 24

14 1985 Plaza Accord 10 5.2 2008 7 15 2008 2007 5 21 5% 3% 10 1% 2007 2007 6 7 8 2007 7 2007 8 2008 5 14 2005 12 7 15 2008 16 17 2008 25

2008 2 11 2008 3 2008 5 2008 8 2 1. 2007 9 1 the Consumer Product Safety Commission,CPSC 2008 3 5 10 24 2 2007 12 2008 3 26

2007 12 CPSC 2. 2007 12 24 FDA 1 2008 3 FDA 16 low acid canned foods pet food/pet treats raw materials used in making manufactured foods wheat gluten corn gluten rice protein farm-raised fish 16 Food Chemicals News 2008 3 31 China, US move forward on new food safety agreement http://www.bilaterals.org/article.php3?id_article=11697 27

FDA 2 FDA 2008 5 9 FDA Christopher Hickey 8 5 13 17 3 2008 5 2000 FDA FDA 2007 600 69 5 2007 11 40 600 WHO the World Health Organization 17 4 CPSC FDA 28

2008 3 11 6 10~20 8 9 2008 29

2007 4 101 2007 25.7 2007 20.8 2007 2007 2 21,738 23.5 2002 2001 WTO 20 12,180 25.7 2006 1.5 9,558 20.8 2006 0.8 2,622 2006 47.7 2-2-1 2007 9,860.5 18.5 5 9672.2 29.1 5.6 45.4 44.5 30

2008 9 2008 18 2,000 2008 12,338 987.02 138.19 2008 6,662.51 21.8 5.8 5,675.49 30.6 12.4 2008 12.28 138.2 6 20.5 2008 2008 8.9 27 8.9 3.2 52.9 86.3 25.4% 58.3% 1.6 18 31

2-2-1 2004 1 2,398.47 1,157.04 34.1 1,241.43 42.3-84.39 1-2 5,229.74 2,580.77 35.7 2,648.97 42.6-68.20 1-3 8,285.47 4,162.36 35.3 4,123.11 38.2 39.25 1-4 11,547.92 5,933.69 35.4 5,614.23 36.0 319.46 2005 1 2,952.03 1,558.92 34.9 1,393.11 12.2 165.81 1-2 6,450.34 3,423.40 32.7 3,026.94 14.0 396.46 1-3 10,245.03 5,464.19 31.3 4,780.84 16.0 683.35 1-4 14,221.17 7,619.99 28.4 6,601.18 17.6 1,018.81 2006 1 3,713.00 1,973.04 26.6 1,739.96 24.8 233.08 1-2 7,957.39 4,285.93 25.2 3,671.46 21.3 614.47 1-3 12,725.99 6,912.20 26.5 5,813.79 21.7 1,098.41 1-4 17,606.87 9,690.73 27.2 7,916.14 20.0 1,774.59 2007 1 4,577.08 2,520.77 27.8 2,056.31 18.2 464.46 1-2 9,809.29 5,467.25 27.6 4,342.04 18.2 1,125.21 1-3 15,707.25 8,781.34 27.1 6,925.92 19.1 1,855.42 1-4 21,738.33 12,180.15 25.7 9,558.18 20.8 2,621.97 2008 1 5,703.76 3,058.97 21.4 2,644.79 28.6 414.18 1-2 12,338.00 6,662.51 21.8 5,675.49 30.6 987.02 32

2004 2-2-3 2007 2006 2005 2004 39.95 41.49 41.10 41.65 3,820.47 3,285.52 2,713.31 2,335.81 11 17 2007 06 05 04 16.90 15.57 13.99 11.96 1,616.34 1,233.03 923.33 670.99 2007 2005 2004 8.12 8.57 8.65 776.46 565.98 485.23 2006 7.59 600.92 33

2007 3,561.5 27 1,343 46 3,020.8 15 1,633 19 2,360.2 13.9 185 2004-2007 1 15.2 14.63 34

2-2-4 2004-2007 2007 37,888 8.69 835 2006 15% 37,871 748 14% 15 2007 18.03 12.79 8.97 29.43 54.7 22.9 5.4 35

2007 4.6 54.15 48.5 277.03 165.52 36.78 35.89 31.85 26.16 / 87.16 2008 2-2-6 44.75 18.03 233.94 94.24 25.22 21.72 18.31 16.38 15.96 14.75 9.96 8.99 2008 87.89 2007 87.16 2008 2007 36

2008 1 1 1. 3 4 13.5 12 19 20 2008 4 1 12.9 19 2007 7 1 20 Haygroup 2007 2007 8% 37

2-2-2 2004-2007 22 2004 2005 2006 2007 1 63.06 1.06 19.60 67.11 0.88 6.42 71.25 0.74 6.18 74.06 0.61 3.94 2 66.04 1.11-12.90 82.84 1.09 25.44 88.99 0.92 7.42 112.55 0.92 26.48 3 1.58 0.03 24.07 2.84 0.04 79.42 3.91 0.04 37.70 3.28 0.03-16.18 4 94.13 1.59 22.68 112.00 1.47 18.98 138.08 1.42 23.28 164.83 1.35 19.37 5 165.69 2.79 30.15 209.13 2.74 26.22 214.20 2.21 2.42 235.39 1.93 9.89 6 245.88 4.14 32.60 318.64 4.18 29.59 377.59 3.90 18.50 511.34 4.20 35.42 7 169.13 2.85 34.81 232.97 3.06 37.74 296.45 3.06 27.25 365.47 3.00 23.28 8 136.73 2.30 18.09 156.07 2.05 14.15 153.82 1.59-1.44 163.61 1.34 6.37 9 60.60 1.02 38.99 75.71 0.99 24.93 99.14 1.02 30.94 113.98 0.94 14.97 10 37.99 0.64 25.37 51.17 0.67 34.68 69.04 0.71 34.92 92.03 0.76 33.31 11 888.07 14.96 21.03 1,076.89 14.13 21.26 1,380.78 14.24 28.22 1,658.56 13.62 20.12 12 184.23 3.10 17.86 227.71 2.99 23.60 262.54 2.71 15.29 305.82 2.51 16.49 13 93.40 1.57 34.55 122.62 1.61 31.29 155.49 1.60 26.80 183.01 1.50 17.70 14 44.49 0.75 34.98 55.32 0.73 24.36 69.01 0.71 24.74 81.23 0.67 17.71 15 437.41 7.37 74.05 571.21 7.49 30.59 853.49 8.80 49.42 1,155.85 9.49 35.43 16 2,480.22 41.78 43.83 3,222.41 42.27 29.92 4,142.02 42.73 28.54 5,289.98 43.43 27.72 17 209.86 3.54 34.45 284.69 3.73 35.66 384.36 3.97 35.01 550.75 4.52 43.29 18 191.36 3.22 45.84 283.54 3.72 48.17 356.43 3.68 25.71 406.60 3.34 14.08 19 0.21 0.00 26.32 0.28 0.00 32.42 0.39 0.00 38.13 0.59 0.00 49.49 20 355.00 5.98 24.61 453.59 5.95 27.77 551.60 5.69 21.61 690.13 5.67 25.11 21 0.30 0.01 41.27 0.45 0.01 49.47 0.65 0.01 45.50 0.75 0.01 15.77 22 11.07 0.19 16.35 16.08 0.21 45.26 24.03 0.25 49.45 21.73 0.18-9.54 5,936.45 100.00 35.39 7,623.27 100.00 28.41 9,693.26 100.00 27.15 12,181.54 100.00 25.67 38

2-2-3 2004-2007 22 % 1 37.31 0.67 12.74 42.69 0.65 14.43 46.67 0.59 9.30 60.24 0.63 29.08 2 110.10 1.96 53.49 111.50 1.69 1.27 109.76 1.39-1.57 150.45 1.57 37.08 3 42.04 0.75 43.49 33.07 0.50-21.33 39.24 0.50 18.66 75.76 0.79 93.08 4 28.09 0.50 33.34 34.57 0.52 23.07 40.75 0.51 17.88 45.43 0.48 11.48 5 670.99 11.96 77.69 923.33 13.99 37.61 1,233.03 15.57 33.54 1,616.34 16.90 31.09 6 428.13 7.63 34.60 505.60 7.66 18.10 562.19 7.10 11.19 685.07 7.16 21.86 7 327.99 5.85 32.49 389.22 5.90 18.67 462.86 5.85 18.92 549.09 5.74 18.63 8 51.15 0.91 24.05 54.23 0.82 6.03 62.76 0.79 15.73 68.62 0.72 9.34 9 52.25 0.93 11.93 57.39 0.87 9.83 64.94 0.82 13.16 79.95 0.84 23.11 10 103.03 1.84 19.30 110.04 1.67 6.80 118.98 1.50 8.12 145.33 1.52 22.15 11 230.02 4.10 19.22 234.46 3.55 1.93 256.83 3.24 9.54 253.78 2.65-1.19 12 6.10 0.11 25.25 6.73 0.10 10.30 7.76 0.10 15.24 9.44 0.10 21.70 13 32.45 0.58 23.48 33.82 0.51 4.20 39.63 0.50 17.20 44.62 0.47 12.58 14 26.54 0.47 43.73 34.71 0.53 30.78 46.19 0.58 33.08 62.55 0.65 35.43 15 485.23 8.65 23.20 565.98 8.57 16.64 598.01 7.55 5.66 776.46 8.12 29.84 16 2,335.81 41.65 33.03 2,713.31 41.10 16.16 3,285.52 41.49 21.09 3,820.47 39.95 16.28 17 192.91 3.44 9.85 198.54 3.01 2.92 297.24 3.75 49.72 350.28 3.66 17.84 18 413.14 7.37 57.80 511.82 7.75 23.89 600.92 7.59 17.41 710.04 7.43 18.16 19 0.03 0.00 8.36 0.03 0.00-1.13 0.02 0.00-25.62 0.02 0.00-0.88 20 19.47 0.35 22.39 21.05 0.32 8.11 24.23 0.31 15.12 33.95 0.36 40.10 21 0.07 0.00 14.02 0.07 0.00 8.60 0.12 0.00 74.27 0.10 0.00-20.81 22 15.28 0.27 21.00 20.04 0.30 31.18 20.29 0.26 1.25 24.63 0.26 21.35 5,608.13 100.00 35.76 6,602.20 100.00 17.73 7,917.94 100.00 19.93 9,562.62 100.00 20.77 39

2-2-4 2004-2007 2004 2005 2006 2007 % 1 941.92 16.80 1 1,004.68 15.22 1 1,158.11 14.63 1 1,339.03 14.00 2 647.60 11.55 2 768.74 11.64 2 898.18 11.34 2 1,040.45 10.88 3 621.66 11.09 3 746.55 11.31 3 871.41 11.01 3 1,009.86 10.56 4 446.53 7.96 4 551.78 8.36 4 733.66 9.27 4 856.96 8.96 5 387.95 6.92 5 487.35 7.38 5 592.22 7.48 5 698.61 7.31 5,608.11 100.00 6,602.22 100.00 7,917.94 100.00 9,562.61 100.00 2-2-5 2004-2007 % 40

2-2-6 2008 1 233.94 44.75 2 94.24 18.03 3 25.22 4.82 4 21.72 4.15 5 18.31 3.50 6 16.38 3.13 7 15.96 3.05 8 14.75 2.82 9 9.96 1.91 10 8.99 1.72 459.47 87.89 522.78 100.00 30 2008 2008.05.04 3,559 2,029 132.6% 4,347 2,427 126.4% 41

2,280 1,095 92.4% 2008 1 1 21 15% 25% 10 2. 21 5 2008 3 31 42

2009 26 3. 2006 GDP 49 70 2007 18.5 20.1% 24 2006 爲 43

22 2007 2007 12 2007 2007 12 1 4. 2007 CPI 4.8% 2008 8% 1 2 4 2008 22 2006 72 2.8 3 44

GDP 1.8 3.2 1.4 4 IEA 10 6% 2% 2008 2008 21. 21.4 23.0 2008 7 168 80.4% 17.8% 45

23 24 2001 77.47 23.65 22.95 8.86 55.46 14.03 7.98 2007 81.73 26.49 12.52 5.56 44.57 23 24 46

24.89 12.27 37.16 2001 2007 2001 99.41 2007 99.49 2007 2001 25 2-3-1 1991 2007 1991 80.54 2007 1,023 17 13 1991 69.28 2007 742.8 10.7 1991 11.26 2007 280.2 24.88 1991 58.02 2007 462.6 8 90 25 47

2006 24.8 13.5 23.5 2007 2007 1,023 742.8 30.1 17.3 280.2 12.8 13.1 462.6 20 2007 2007 567.6 405.8 30.2 2007 21.7 161.8 12.8 23.1 244 20.7 2-3-1 1991 80.54 5.8 63.1 69.28 9.1 66.1 11.26 1.8 47.1 58.02 70.4 1992 108.16 7.1 34.2 96.97 11.9 40.0 11.19 1.6-0.6 85.78 47.8 1993 137.43 8.5-127.28 14.9 31.3 10.16 1.3-117.12-1994 165.12 9.3 20.1 146.53 15.7 15.1 18.59 2.2 83.0 127.94 9.2 1995 209.90 9.8 27.1 178.98 16.0 22.1 30.91 3.0 66.3 148.07 15.7 1996 222.08 10.2 5.8 191.48 16.5 7.0 30.60 3.0-1.0 160.89 8.7 1997 244.33 10.3 10.0 205.18 16.8 7.2 39.15 3.4 28.0 166.03 3.2 1998 224.91 10.4-8.0 183.80 16.6-10.4 41.11 3.9 5.0 142.70-14.1 1999 257.48 11.1 14.5 212.21 17.5 15.5 45.26 4.1 10.1 166.95 17.0 2000 323.67 11.2 25.7 261.44 17.6 23.2 62.23 4.4 37.5 199.21 19.3 2001 299.63 13.0-7.4 240.61 19.6-8.0 59.02 5.5-5.2 181.59-8.8 48

2002 374.13 15.4 24.9 294.65 22.6 22.5 79.48 7.1 34.7 215.17 18.5 2003 463.20 17.1 23.8 353.58 24.5 20.0 109.62 8.6 37.9 243.96 13.4 2004 657.2 18.7 27.8 489.3 26.8 52.4 167.9 10.0 33.3 321.4 17.8 2005 763.7 20.0 16.2 562.8 28.4 15.0 200.9 11.0 19.7 361.8 12.6 2006 881.2 20.7 15.4 633.3 28.3 12.5 247.9 12.2 23.3 385.5 6.6 2007 1,023.0 21.9 16.1 742.8 30.1 17.3 280.2 12.8 13.1 462.6 20.0 2008 567.6 21.7 22.1 405.8 30.2 21.7 161.8 12.8 23.1 244 20.7 2-3-2 1996 2007 1996 189.82 2006 2007 1,244.66 1996 6.6 1996 2007 5.5 7.5 2002 7.19 2007 5.72 1996 28.02 2007 234.80 1996 8.4 1997 2007 2001 WTO 2002 2006 20 1996 2007 1.8 2.3 1996 161.80 2007 49

1,009.86 1996 6.2 1996 2007 WTO 1996 2007 10.5 13 1996 133.78 2004 500 2007 775.06 2007 462.6 2007 2008 680.12 2007 23.01 2007 2008 130.87 2004 135.48 18.75 2008 549.25 2007 24.07 2007 2007 2008 25.84 2005-2007 2-3-2 1996 189.82 6.55 6.15 28.02 1.85-9.56 161.80 11.65 9.44 133.78 14.48 1997 198.31 6.10 4.47 33.97 1.86 21.25 164.34 11.56 1.57 130.36-2.56 1998 205.60 6.34 3.68 38.66 2.10 13.81 166.94 11.89 1.58 128.27-1.60 1999 234.89 6.51 14.25 39.52 2.02 2.21 195.37 11.79 17.04 155.86 21.50 2000 305.37 6.44 30.00 50.40 2.02 27.54 254.97 11.33 30.50 204.57 31.26 2001 323.46 6.34 5.92 50.02 1.88-0.76 273.44 11.23 7.24 223.42 9.22 50

2002 446.72 7.19 38.11 65.90 2.02 31.75 380.82 12.90 39.27 314.93 40.96 2003 583.78 6.86 30.68 90.14 2.06 36.79 493.64 11.95 29.62 403.50 28.13 2004 783.07 6.78 34.14 135.48 2.28 50.30 647.60 11.55 31.19 512.12 26.92 2005 912.14 6.41 16.48 165.59 2.17 22.22 746.55 11.31 15.28 580.96 13.44 2006 1,078.80 6.13 18.27 207.40 2.14 25.25 871.41 11.01 16.72 664.01 14.29 2007 1,244.66 5.72 15.37 234.80 1.93 13.22 1,009.86 10.56 15.89 775.06 16.72 2008 680.12 5.51 23.01 130.87 1.96 18.75 549.25 9.69 24.07 418.38 25.84 1. 2. ( ) 2-3-3 2005-2007 50 2005 99.63 27.95 15.77 12.57 11.49 2007 2007 134.82 48.49 41.67 14.99 23.76 51

8.55 18.35 6.6 16.01 5.76 2007 22 57.81 57.21 2005 46.66 26.25 18.77 2-3-4 2005 361.45 120.46 74.44 67.90 55.37 48.42 16.14 9.97 9.09 7.42 2005 2007 2007 2007 490.46 48.57 191.57 18.97 52

88.66 8.78 82.97 8.22 82.3 8.15 2007 26.98 18.63 16.15 13 2001 2007 1 2001 2007 26 2007 2001 2 2001 2007 26 2001 99.41 2007 99.49 2001 98.50 2007 98.42 53

3 27 2007 10 9 2001 2007 1. 2-3-5 2001 15 3 3 59.76 20 16 17 18 20 1 2007 20 28 15 15 3 3 63.37 2001 7.24 22.88 27 28 2001 7.98 2007 26.49 54

20 15 1 14 16 20 2007 2. 2001 20 29 16 4 1 1 2 10 55.82 3 2007 1 7 9 16 8 2.84 20 0.52 2001 20 2007 20 2007 2001 29 55

2-3-3 2005 2007 2005 2006 2007 2005 2006 2007 1 43.95 42.54-3.21 118.63 178.86 3.68 3.53-4.01 8.76 147.77 2 162.92 147.85-9.25 205.56 39.06 5.89 5.55-5.85 6.23 12.22 3 6.97 4.19-39.87 4.63 10.66 3.04 2.11-30.51 1.62-22.96 4 107.81 148.06 37.34 159.65 7.82 3.82 5.00 30.75 5.39 7.97 5 1,576.72 1,684.00 6.80 1,835.11 8.97 5.28 4.34-17.72 4.00-7.94 6 1,256.63 1,645.30 30.93 2,376.09 44.42 6.45 7.33 13.60 9.58 30.72 7 487.40 583.04 19.62 655.64 12.45 7.99 8.91 11.59 9.52 6.77 8 202.00 172.83-14.44 176.08 1.88 23.08 19.97-13.48 19.00-4.84 9 198.51 211.01 6.30 216.80 2.75 16.05 17.07 6.32 16.47-3.49 10 163.56 222.88 36.26 229.92 4.26 7.31 9.70 32.64 9.36-2.65 11 321.07 589.43 83.59 681.82 15.67 12.30 21.77 76.95 25.69 18.00 12 241.40 253.27 4.92 223.35-11.82 55.91 61.04 9.18 57.21-6.28 13 137.97 153.64 11.36 189.45 23.31 6.44 6.57 1.92 7.06 7.47 14 150.86 235.05 55.80 274.13 16.63 8.64 9.96 15.17 9.06-8.98 15 2,794.80 3,909.20 39.87 4,166.74 6.59 14.94 16.91 13.14 15.68-7.28 16 9,962.80 12,025.57 20.70 13,481.94 12.11 14.62 16.75 14.62 18.77 12.05 17 339.14 354.16 4.43 455.21 28.54 4.87 7.18 47.36 8.47 17.82 18 1,149.49 1,456.21 26.68 1,601.23 9.96 10.21 11.84 16.05 12.36 4.32 19 0.52 0.45-13.22 0.46 2.83 10.23 5.27-48.47 8.25 56.42 20 568.57 603.66 6.17 658.30 9.05 52.46 57.20 9.04 57.81 1.07 21 5.72 8.07 41.09 5.30-34.33 46.66 48.97 4.95 26.25-46.39 22 69.87 80.12 14.65 87.83 9.62 4.14 5.81 40.26 6.22 7.13 19,948.67 24,530.52 22.97 27,803.87 13.36 10.98 12.17 10.77 12.74 4.70 56

2-3-4 2005 2007 2005 2006 2007 2005 2006 2007 1 51.83 64.63 24.71 76.25 17.98 1.21 1.39 14.10 1.27-8.60 2 21.83 25.55 17.08 30.34 18.71 0.20 0.23 18.95 0.20-13.40 3 9.55 9.68 1.36 12.68 30.92 0.29 0.25-14.58 0.17-32.19 4 35.44 36.87 4.04 43.95 19.21 1.03 0.90-11.74 0.97 6.94 5 685.15 961.33 40.31 1,323.57 37.68 0.74 0.78 5.07 0.82 5.03 6 5,537.37 6,035.45 8.99 8,229.90 36.36 10.95 10.74-1.98 12.01 11.90 7 6,789.62 7,386.44 8.79 8,866.34 20.04 17.44 15.96-8.52 16.15 1.19 8 554.19 522.80-5.66 496.18-5.09 10.22 8.33-18.49 7.23-13.20 9 40.03 37.80-5.57 36.69-2.94 0.70 0.58-16.55 0.46-21.16 10 526.24 502.08-4.59 511.35 1.85 4.78 4.22-11.76 3.52-16.62 11 3,388.06 3,381.30-0.20 3,285.66-2.83 14.45 13.17-8.89 12.95-1.66 12 71.66 55.22-22.93 48.32-12.50 10.64 7.12-33.12 5.12-28.10 13 655.38 745.82 13.80 831.24 11.45 19.38 18.82-2.90 18.63-1.00 14 26.37 63.50 140.80 123.66 94.74 0.76 1.37 80.94 1.98 43.80 15 7,444.31 7,532.22 1.18 8,296.85 10.15 13.15 12.60-4.24 10.69-15.16 16 36,145.41 43,376.67 20.01 49,045.65 13.07 13.32 13.20-0.89 12.84-2.76 17 360.50 329.04-8.73 260.60-20.80 1.82 1.11-39.04 0.74-32.79 18 12,046.37 15,788.90 31.07 19,156.67 21.33 23.54 26.27 11.64 26.98 2.68 19 0.00 0.01 0.00-67.31 0.00 0.56 0.19-67.02 20 264.08 281.66 6.66 306.48 8.81 12.55 11.62-7.35 9.03-22.33 21 0.07 0.79 1,024.50 0.08-89.73 0.99 6.40 545.28 0.83-87.04 22 1.62 2.83 75.07 3.48 22.80 0.08 0.14 72.91 0.14 1.19 74,655.06 87,140.60 16.72 100,985.95 15.89 11.31 11.01-2.67 10.56-4.04 57

2-3-5 % 2001 2007 2001 2007 22.32 22.88 26.28 39.24 21.17 21.77 16.35 11.46 16.27 18.73 13.19 10.94 7.67 10.85 7.89 6.16 7.24 4.92 5.40 6.11 5.34 3.71 5.20 3.63 5.24 3.60 3.89 3.39 3.39 3.29 3.17 2.79 98.14 2.35 98.02 1.77 94.06 2.35 94.43 2.49 1.65 1.49 2.27 2.19 1.40 1.42 2.00 1.96 1.23 1.29 1.83 1.32 0.95 1.28 1.53 1.17 0.94 0.62 1.36 0.67 0.89 0.68 0.59 0.40 0.11 0.66 0.32 0.14 0.31 0.84 0.24 0.11 0.48 0.17 1.41 0.57 0.52 0.52 0.33 0.38 0.22 0.22 0.44 0.11 1.00 1.00 0.63 0.25 0.82 0.82 0.56 0.56 2.03 2.03 2.84 2.84 99.41 99.49 98.50 98.42 1. 2. 58

2001 2007 2007 462.6 775.06 2001 2007 2-3-6 2001 23.65 22.95 8.86 55.46 14.03 7.98 77.47 2007 2001 26.49 12.52 5.56 44.57 24.89 12.27 37.16 81.73 2001 2007 26.49 59

2007 2007 2001 23.65 24.89 12.52 2001 14.03 12.27 2001 1.61 2007 5.56 2007 2001 2007 2001 7.98 2007 26.49 10 2007 9 2001 3.79 6.49 5,723.29 15,817.2 10,093.9 31.17 2007 8.05 12.56 21,967.13 120,080.5-98,113.3 93.47 2001 60

2-3-6 2001 2007 23.65 26.49 100.97 100.06 0.31 22.95 24.89 14.03 12.52 8.86 12.27 7.98 5.56 6.19 4.29 5.24 4.24 3.70 3.26 1.67 1.96 1.61 1.48 1.01 1.01 1.00 0.84 1.00 0.76 1.00 0.42 1.00 0.07 0.08 0.43 0.36 0.24 0.07 0.07 0.33 0.49 0.08 0.08 19 101.91 20 0.09 0.07 100.98 61

90 2-4-1 1989 1993 50 40 1994 2000 2000 1994 1996 10 2001 2002 2002 39.7 1989 2003 2002 4,853 2007 3,299 2002 39.7 2007 17.7 2003 2007 1990 ~2003 2001 16.1 2001 2001 16.1 2005 8.8 2006 9.1 2007 62

8.7 1990 1994 10 2002 7.5 2007 2.4 2008 1-7 1,380 29.5% 11.8 15.0% 2008 1-7 2003~2007 2-4-1 1989 539 9.3 1.6 4.7 1990 1,103 104.6 15.2 2.2 43.2 6.3 1991 1,735 57.3 13.4 4.7 109.9 10.8 1992 6,430 270.6 13.2 10.5 125.5 9.5 1993 10,948 70.3 13.1 31.4 198.7 11.4 1994 6,247-42.9 13.1 33.9 8.0 10.0 1995 4,847-22.4 13.1 31.6-6.8 8.4 1996 3,184-34.3 13.0 34.8 9.9 8.3 1997 3,014-5.3 14.4 32.9-5.4 7.3 1998 2,970-1.5 15.0 29.2-11.4 6.4 1999 2,499-15.9 14.8 26.0-10.8 6.4 2000 3,108 24.4 13.9 23.0-11.7 5.6 2001 4,214 35.6 16.1 29.8 29.8 6.4 63

2002 4,853 15.2 14.2 39.7 33.3 7.5 2003 4,495-7.4 10.9 33.8-14.9 6.3 2004 4,002-11.0 9.5 31.2-7.7 5.1 2005 3,907-2.4 8.8 21.6-31.0 3.6 2006 3,752-4.0 9.1 21.4-0.7 3.4 2007 3,299-12.1 8.7 17.7-20.4 2.4 2008 1~7 1,380-29.5 11.8 15.0 1999~2007 75,146 11.9 457.6 6.0 2-4-2 1991 2007 2007 41.27% 1991~2001 15.42% 2007 28.14% 2007 8.3% 2006 0.12 2007 0.17 1991~2001 6.73 2007 0.72 1991~2001 4.27 2007 1.04 64

2-4-2 1991~2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 30.43 38.95 30.26 43.86 30.55 36.14 41.27 8.30 2.50 5.85 2.32 0.72 2.58 1.04 2.06 5.06 0.17 28.14 100.00 2007 65

2008 2007 6 31 80 GDP 75% 2007 45% WTO 2007 GDP 39.1 GDP 60 30 31 2008 2008 3 6 2008 6 2 66

2007 1000 1.47 2006 11.53% 32 1987 10 20 15 20 32 2008 7 10 67

1980 1980 80 90 2007 11 2007 12 2000 2005 2006 2007 2 2008 68

33 2008 5 17 18 9 2008 4 7 33 34 2008 8 31 2008 5 18 69

2004 2005 10 ( ) 70

9 5 ( ) 2 ( ) 5 ( ) 3 ( ) 24 ( ) 80 ( ) 130 30 83.1% 44.8% 35.1% 1885 ( ) 2004 71

2004 8 ( ) 2005 1 2006 8 2007 2008 6 ( ) 2004 2002 4,468 2007 9,075 12.9% 12,938 25,424 3000 12.2% 2002 476 2007 1284 21.9 ( ) 1980 1990 72

1981 1997 2005 2008 9 35 2007 69 23.1 6,300 53.8 431 18.2 28.3 36 37 35 36 37 2008 9 17 http://www.gwytb.gov.cn 73

( ) 2006 3 7 2006 8 1. 2. 3. 2006 8 2 2008 6 74

10 38 2008 5 4 39 ( ) 1. 2007 40 (2005) 38 2008 8 1 39 2008 8 10 40 2007 2 290 2007 2 51-56 75

41 2005 12.7 48.6 38.7 2003 1.8 30.4 67.8 2003 13.5 47.6 38.9 11.7 17.2 28.9 20 25 20 70 80 2006 2,880.32 GDP 38.4 GDP 75 41 2 2005 76

77 2. 20-30 8-10 13 2,300 2007 (SWOT) 2-5-1

2-5-1 SWOT S( ) W( ) O( ) T( ) 2007 2 290 2007 2 54 3. 2007 42 42 SWOT 2007 11 29 78

2005 4 2007 8 FTA 43 2008 1 43 ( ) 097-002 2008 6 30 79

2008 9 80

WTO WTO WTO 44 45 44 2006 9 15 2006 139 45 2006 612.1 111.9 70% 54% 2007 690.6 118.8 2006 2 3.4 81

WTO WTO WTO WTO 1978 30 1. 1979-1986 1 2 82

3 4 2. 1987-1990 20 80 3. 1991-1993 4. 1994-2001 1994 83

1978 206.38 2001 5,098 25 1979 32 2001 6 15% 9% WTO 2001 12 11 WTO 2 8 WTO WTO WTO FTA 2007 10 15 FTA 84

FTA FTA 2006 12 11 WTO WTO 5 GDP WTO 5 3.9 7.5 GDP 1,038 2,300 15.3 9.9 15 5 13 2006 2006-2007 2008 5 1980 1986 1991 85

1996 2001 46 2006 (1) 2002 7,305.72 ( ) 2005 10,654.88 ( ) 2006 11,796.64( ) (2)2002 23,959 9,262 14,697 2005 20,657 ( ) 2006 25,598 ( ) (3)1995 1,650 24.5 1,625.5 2005 7,882.6 73.1 7809.5 2006 9,028.38 ( ) 2006 2006-2010 46 (1995) 1996 2001 86

" " " GDP 2006 2006 FTA 50 60 47 87

88 60 1978 1997 30

2006 2007 1 48 2007 4 30 2007 4 15 30 101 58 2007 2007 21,738 23.5 2002 WTO 20 48 IMF 2006 4 WTO 2007 1 89

12,180 25.7 9,558 20.8 2,622 90

1984 1 1984 1992 2 1994 1995 3 1998 1999 4 2003 2005 5 2006 1.1984 1992 1979 1984 1985 1986 1988 1992 2.1994 1996 1994 91

80 20 1994 2 1984 9 18 1994 31.9% 1993 8% 3.1998 1999 1997 1998 6 1999 2 8 6% 15% 1999 2003 3,000 4.2003 2005 92

75% 25% 2005 92.5% 7.5% 3% 2003 2004 96% IT 2004 11 1 IT 13% 17% 2005 2005 7 33 5.2006 3-2-1 2007 2,268 2006 2006 2006 1 1 93

2006 9 15 142 IT 2007 4 15 2007 72 76 5% 83 2007 7 1 2,831 HS 10 37% 553 2,268 10 553 2,268 2007 12 20 WTO 滙 94

95 3-2-1 2006 2008 2006 1 1 2006 [2006]6 2006 2006 9 15 142 IT 2006 139 2007 4 15 2007 72 76 5% 83 2007 64 2007 7 1 553 2268 10 [2007]90 2007 2007 2007 12 20 2007 169 2008 6 13 [2008] 77 2008 财税 [2008]111 号

3-2-2 24.36 17.77 13.19 10.82 (1) 2008 49 (2). 2004 1 2.8 07 4.89 74.4% 88.8% 2008 50 (3) 2007 6 200 15% 25% 8 20 25% 40% 49 2008 8 29 50 (2008.09) [2008 8 ] 96

2008 1-7 827 2007 8.3% 7 83 6 67 15.3% 51 3-2-2 ( 2008 3 ) 1 3.69 0.00 2 5.72 0.00 3 0.18 0.00 4 1.93 0.00 5 13.19 16.04 6 24.36 7.17 7 0.35 0.00 8 6.60 0.00 9 6.16 2.05 10 10.82 0.00 11 3.43 18.09 12 0.18 0.00 13 1.76 0.00 14 1.06 0.00 15 17.77 56.66 16 0.26 0.00 17 0.09 0.00 18 0.79 0.00 20 1.50 0.00 21 0.18 0.00 22 0.00 0.00 51 - (2008.09) [ ] 97

2007 2008 2008 7 30 2007 7 11 13 11 8 30 2008 9 1 12 31 460 2008 2004 27.9 2008 98

2009 52 52 2008 8 8 5 5 10 8 27 99

1978 8 1979 53 54 53 54 100

1. 1978-1987 90 1981 5.6 1987 23.2 2. 1988-1995 1992 1995 47 3. 1996-2005 1996-2000 1999 [1999]35 1999 101

2001-2005 4. 2006 55 2006 3-3-1 2006 11 3 2006 82 804 HS 10 6.5% 2007 4 5 2007 1,145 9.3% 2007 7 23 2,247 HS 10 394 2007 1,853 56 2007 12 21 2007 589 10 2008 4 5 2008 22 2008 39 55 2006 9 15 2006]139 56 15% 102

103 2006 2.6% A B 50% A B C 100%

104 2008 3 3-3-2 30.39 18.07 10.63 10.31 69.40 63.15 18.76 6.53 6.53 94.97 3-3-3 21.39 17.79 17.31 10.58 67.07 52.13 33.65

7.11 3.32 96.21 57 57 22% 105

106 3-3-1 2006 2008 号

107 2008 4 5 2008 2008 2008 39 1816 39 2008 22

3-3-2 ( 2008 3 ) 1 4.57 0.00 2 1.91 0.00 3 0.21 0.00 4 1.81 0.00 5 10.31 0.00 6 30.39 0.00 7 0.11 18.76 8 5.21 0.00 9 9.14 2.68 10 10.63 0.00 11 1.28 63.15 12 0.21 0.00 13 1.70 6.53 14 1.17 0.00 15 18.07 6.53 16 0.32 0.00 17 0.00 0.00 18 0.96 0.00 20 1.81 2.35 21 0.21 0.00 22 0.00 0.00 108

3-3-3 ( 2008 3 ) 1 2.64 0.95 2 0.48 0.00 3 0.00 7.11 4 1.68 1.42 5 17.31 0.00 6 17.79 0.00 7 0.24 3.32 8 2.40 0.00 9 4.33 0.00 10 4.09 0.00 11 1.44 52.13 12 0.00 0.00 13 1.20 0.00 14 0.00 0.00 15 6.97 33.65 16 21.39 0.00 17 0.24 0.00 18 7.21 0.00 20 10.58 1.42 21 0.00 0.00 22 0.00 0.00 109

30 2007 2008 2008 14,544 22.15 523.88 45.55% 2008 25.7 21.9 5.7 30.6 990.3 11.8 110

2008 7 30 2007 1. 111

2008 1 2008 8 21 58 58 < > 2008 8 25 112

2008 5 17 59 a. b. c. 59 2008 9 2 < (2008.05.17) 113

2 60 3 61 62 63 60 2008 9 30 < > 2008 8 5 < > 61 62 2008 8 12 < > 63 2008 10 7 < > 114

64 50 10 10 65 2008 10 13 10 64 2008 8 14 < > 65 2008 10 13 < > 115

50% 10 50% 10 50% 15 3 66 8 6,000 7 3 17 67 68 66 2008 7 16 < 7 > 67 2008 9 30 < > 68 2008 116

69 70 2. 1994 2006 48.7 2007 49,000 2006 11,813 1.5 21 130 GDP 69 2008 7 9 < > 70 2008 7 18 < > 71 1993 134 117

8%-20% 17% 23% 1994 2003 2006 2008 2003 10 2004 7 1 8 : 72 2004 [2004] 168 118

3 2006 3 76 2007 7 1 6 26 8 2004 : 8 73 2005 [2005] 176 74 [2004] 156 75 [2004] 227 76 [2007] 75 119

77 6 2008 3 7 2009 1 1 77 / [2004] 1111 2006 [2006] 156 78 79 80 2008 10 23 120

1. 81 1980 1984 1991 82 2004 81 82 1986 6.3% 1990 7.2% 1991 1994 :5.1% 4.2% 3.7% 1.4% 50% 80% 30% < > 2004 4 < > 2004 9 121

2007 27.8% 83 30% 5% 2003 2004 1995 1995 92 83 < > 2007 1 < > 2004 9 122

123 1% 3% 100% 2004

1986 1991 1994 2004 1999 2006 2. 2006-2010 2006 2008 3 5 124

85 挷 86 1984 1986 1994 1986 1994 2004 87 2004 2005 84 < > 2000 1 (1) (2) (3) 85 < > 2008 2 22 86 < > 2008 9 4 87 125

( ) 88 89 90 91 (1) 92 93 88 < > 2008 7 15 89 < > 2008 2 ( 339 ) 90 < > 2008 3 6 96 91 < > 2007 7 20 92 < > 2008 1 11 93 < > 2007 8 23 126

(2) 94 95 96 97 98 (3) 10% 10% 1% 10% 3%~5% 99 2008 8 8 100 2008 6 94 < > 2008 1 11 < > 2007 12 24 95 < > 2007 11 2 96 < > 2008 3 15 97 < > 2008 3 17 98 < > 2008 05 4 99 < > 2008 9 15 100 127

101 25 102 2008 9 19 103 104 105 106 1994 2008 6 101 < > 2008 8 22 102 < > 2008 09 3 103 < > 2008 9 17 104 < > 2008 9 13 105 < > 2008 9 17 106 128

1.66 2005 107 2008 4 8 108 11 2008 2009 CPI PPI 107 < > 2008 9 25 108 < > 2008 8 29 129

2004 2007 quasi-experiment analysis 1. ( ) 131

2. control group treatment group 3. A B DB DB=1 DB=0 YR YR=1 YR=0 y y = β + δ YR + β DB + δ YR* DB + θx + e 0 0 1 1 X δ = y 2. B y 2. A y1. B y1. 1 A δ1 difference - in-differences estimator 2004 2007 2008 22 B A 1 0 Wooldridge (2003) (panel data) δ 1 132

y = yt yt = β + β ( 1 0 1 Dt Dt 1) + e y D D 1 t t 1 t t HS-8 22 Wang and Wei 2008 1980 180 GDP 4% 2005 7600 GDP 35% Schott 2006 sophisticated Wang and Wei 2008 1995 6% 2005 25% 1995 11.7% 2006 39.5% 18.7% 58.2%( 4-2-1) 133

4-2-1 1995 2006 ( ) :% 1995 66.7 19.8 11.7 1.5 0 1996 57 24.9 15.7 2 0 1997 56.2 23.9 17.1 2.5 0 1998 52.6 24.1 20 2.9 0.1 1999 50.5 23.2 22.2 3.5 0.3 2000 46.7 24.2 23.8 4.2 1 2001 42.6 24.1 25.9 5.3 2 2002 37.7 22.7 29.5 5.8 4.2 2003 31.5 21.5 33.3 5.7 7.9 2004 25.9 21 36.1 5.4 11.7 2005 22.2 19.9 38.4 4.8 14.7 2006 19.7 18.7 39.5 4.2 17.8 1996-2004 39.8 22.7 27.8 4.7 4.9 : Wang and Wei 2008 1995 43% 2005 52% ( 4-2-2) Fishman and Wei, 2004 Fishman, et al., 2008 4-2-2 1995 2005 ( ) 134 :% 1995 10.6 0 3.2 2.1 39.8 42.1 2.2 1996 8.7 0 3.9 1.8 45.2 38.3 2 1997 8.8 0 4.6 1.7 43.9 39 1.9 1998 8.2 0 5.5 1.9 45.5 36.9 1.9

1999 7 0 6.4 2.2 45.5 37 1.9 2000 7.1 0 7 2.6 43.3 38.2 1.8 2001 6.8 0.1 7.4 2.8 43 38 1.9 2002 6.2 0.7 8 3 42.2 37.6 2.3 2003 5.3 2.4 9.5 3.4 39.6 37.1 2.7 2004 4.4 3.6 11 3.6 37.7 36.4 3.2 2005 4.3 4.6 11.8 3.6 35.6 36.8 3.5 1996 2004 6.3 1.3 8 2.8 41.7 37.4 2.4 : Wang and Wei 2008 2005 2005 69 HS 22 06( ) 15( ) 99 2005 1.32% 2006 537 08( ) 09( ) HS10( ) 289 2006 3.07% 2007 1,334 1,187 2007 10.79%( 4-2-3) 2006 127 77 2007 809 930 8.46% 2007 698 514 4.67% 135

quasi-experiment analysis ( ) Share = β0 + δ0y 07 + β1d07 + δ1y 07 * D07 + e Share 2004 2007 HS-8 22 Y 07 Y 07 = 1 2007 Y 07 = 0 2004 D07 D07 = 1 2007 D07 = 0 2007 2007 2008 1 2004 2008 HS-8 22 Share = β + β D07 + e 0 1 Share 2007 2004 D07 2007 2004 2004 D07 07 D 2004 2008 HS-8 136

4-2-3 2004 2005 2006 : 22 01 412 6,306,240 412 6,710,789 407 7,124,375 5 879 02 609 6,604,228 609 8,284,097 609 8,898,770 03 71 158,336 71 284,085 71 391,177 04 332 9,413,078 332 11,199,813 332 13,807,576 05 253 16,568,862 241 19,278,989 12 1,634,168 164 10,126,016 89 11,293,522 06 1,422 24,588,295 1,394 30,053,891 28 1,810,539 1,386 34,341,124 36 3,417,615 07 304 16,913,049 304 23,296,584 304 29,644,812 08 154 13,672,933 154 15,607,088 74 15,244,082 80 137,933 09 268 6,060,231 266 7,567,163 2 3,685 165 8,393,214 103 1,520,399 10 213 3,799,401 213 5,116,930 68 4,596,718 145 2,307,117 11 1,319 88,806,881 1,319 107,688,506 1,315 137,839,121 4 238,735 12 64 18,423,335 64 22,771,204 64 26,254,032 137

2004 2005 2006 22 13 225 9,339,958 225 12,262,007 225 15,548,729 14 103 4,448,656 103 5,532,409 91 6,894,427 12 6,733 15 955 43,741,076 928 50,624,009 27 6,497,311 892 75,341,109 63 10,008,009 16 1,905 248,022,082 1,905 322,240,917 1,905 414,201,690 17 414 20,985,618 414 28,468,647 414 38,435,546 18 396 19,136,422 396 28,354,396 396 35,643,000 19 19 21,433 19 28,381 19 39,203 20 209 35,500,385 209 45,358,777 209 55,160,239 21 11 29,953 11 44,772 11 65,143 22 8 1,106,720 8 1,607,605 8 2,402,570 9,666 593,647,174 9,597 752,381,058 69 9,945,702 9,129 940,392,672 537 28,930,943 138

4-2-3 ( ) 2006 2007 : 22 01 407 7,124,375 407 7,405,360 5 365 02 609 8,898,770 600 10,795,018 10 460,009 1 84 03 71 391,177 69 327,748 2 152 04 332 13,807,576 309 13,896,134 23 2,586,449 5 75,886 05 164 10,126,016 4 70,163 52 2,526,394 201 21,012,108 107 9,944,192 06 1386 34,341,124 11 1,416,779 1079 29,449,286 343 21,684,952 143 11,672,785 07 304 29,644,812 303 36,443,465 1 103,700 134 23,412,432 08 74 15,244,082 30 9,487,852 124 6,873,579 45 1,197,960 09 165 8,393,214 1 26,103 118 2,820,803 150 8,576,880 22 3,390,003 136 5,670,154 10 68 4,596,718 87 2,248,454 68 5,946,049 145 3,257,448 108 3,257,448 11 1315 137,839,121 1300 165,326,407 19 529,416 535 44,067,920 2 247 12 64 26,254,032 62 28,903,500 2 1,678,584 139

2006 2007 22 13 225 15,548,729 203 16,799,385 22 1,502,089 43 6,690,157 18 1,359,392 14 91 6,894,427 88 7,656,627 15 466,593 10 5,561 15 892 75,341,109 24 3,979,806 722 75,385,116 233 40,199,973 55 3,156,903 112 10,079,653 16 1905 414,201,690 1902 527,486,881 3 1,510,985 3 1,510,985 17 414 38,435,546 413 55,020,024 1 55,456 18 396 35,643,000 387 39,906,858 9 753,012 19 19 39,203 19 58,607 0 20 209 55,160,239 185 61,571,795 24 7,441,663 20 12,347,553 8 6,648,855 21 11 65,143 9 60,927 2 14,492 22 8 2,402,570 8 2,173,338 0 9,129 940,392,672 127 7,741,305 8,333 1,099,447,572 1,334 118,707,905 809 93,064,968 698 51,423,203 140

1. 2004 2007 4-2-4 2004 2007 22 β δ0 β δ 1 16 22 δ 6 04 08 11 12 18 20 10% 1 1 0 4-2-4 (2004 2007 ) 2 β 0 δ 0 β 1 δ 1 01 0.5207-0.1285-0.5152 0.1243 454 (4.12)*** (-0.77) (-0.58) (0.10) 02 0.2803-0.0411 0.1629 0.0519 761 (7.28)*** (-0.78) (0.64) (0.15) 03 2.8559-0.7292-2.8148 0.7345 83 (4.19)*** (-0.81) (-0.69) (0.13) 04 0.4074-0.0604 0.6487-0.1495 485 (6.09)*** (-0.66) (2.24)** (-0.40) 05 3.929-2.4027-3.4024 2.5298 138 (3.21)*** (-1.64)* (-2.71)*** (1.68)* 06 0.0879-0.0149 0.0211 0.0027 1846 (11.98)*** (-1.49) (1.47) (0.14) 08 3.6111 0.5309-1.4298-1.5161 75 (2.40)** (0.26) (-0.76) (-0.60) 09 0.2894 0.2073-0.185 0.9183 75 (0.22) (0.15) (-0.11) (0.50) 11 0.1422-0.0088-0.1094-0.0083 1050 (8.43)*** (-0.38) (-0.93) (-0.05) 12 1.7786-0.0284 1.9756-0.9814 109 N 141

2 β 0 δ 0 β 1 δ 1 (3.16)*** (-0.04) (0.67) (-0.24) 13 0.4131 0.0433-0.2682 0.0077 212 (4.30)*** (0.35) (-0.52) (0.01) 14 1.969-0.3714-1.1037 0.925 115 (9.06)*** (-0.41) (-0.46) (0.27) 15 0.1689-0.0209 0.033 0.0286 1024 (9.06)*** (-0.82) (0.84) (0.53) 17 0.4672-0.1274-0.4563 0.2172 509 (6.06)*** (-1.26) (-0.40) (0.14) 18 0.3839-0.0523-0.1094-0.0163 567 (2.38)** (-0.24) (-0.13) (-0.01) 20 0.6479-0.0761-0.4446-0.0057 287 (5.93)*** (-0.52) (-1.42) (-0.01) 1. t 2.* p-value<0.10 ** p-value<0.05 *** p-value<0.01 N 4-2-5 2004 2007 β1 7 08 12 2 08 12 HS-8 2.05 1.05 9 08 08 HS-8 383.52 09 142

4-2-5 (2004 2007 ) 22 β 0 β 1 β 0 β 1 01-0.189 0.1847-0.1872 0.0194 195 (-3.91)*** (0.55) (-0.09) (0.00) 02-0.0095 0.077 12.3788 16.4843 351 (-0.60) (0.73) (4.64)*** (0.93) 03-0.4396 0.4448 4.5481-4.4448 35 (1.12) (0.19) (3.18)*** (-0.52) 04-0.0533-0.155 25.3527 29.3358 224 (-1.42) (-0.92) (4.21)*** (1.13) 05-0.3703 0.6456 194.438-91.888 59 (-0.50) (0.95) (1.00) (-0.46) 06-0.0089 0.0016 20.6877 6.9015 868 (-1.88)* (0.17) (9.56)*** (1.63) 08 1.2171-2.0478 321.5342-383.5192 32 (1.64) (-2.20)** (2.61)*** (-2.48)** 09 0.0413-0.1088 29.2431-28.0887 6 (0.82) (-1.63) (3.16)** (-2.29)* 11 0.0029-0.0185 118.7395 118.2496 490 (0.33) (-0.29) (5.75)*** (-0.82) 12 0.0378-1.0478 228.5295-79.4799 53 (0.42) (-2.22)** (2.99)*** (-0.20) 13 0.1569-0.0994 68.5712-44.1735 87 (1.55) (-0.18) (3.27)*** (-0.39) 14-0.0643 0.6179 67.4634 94.5075 52 (-0.32) (0.84) (2.84)*** (0.11) 15-0.014 0.0403 112.8308 71.8577 478 (-1.21) (1.64) (7.33)*** (2.21)** 17-0.0628 0.1526 140.3535-86.8111 214 (-1.30) (0.22) (6.03)*** (-0.25) 18-0.0078-0.0609 86.2357-50.2525 262 (-0.17) (-0.24) (1.68)* (-0.18) 20-0.1228 0.0465 187.445-154.6928 130 (-2.88)*** (0.38) (4.91)*** (-1.42) 1. t 2.* p-value<0.10 ** p-value<0.05 *** p-value<0.01 N 143

2. 2004 2008 4-2-6 2004 2008 4-2-4 δ1 8 4-2-6 (2004 2008 ) 22 β 0 0 δ β 1 δ 1 01 0.5988-0.1464-0.5943 0.1487 392 (4.32)*** (-0.80) (-0.47) (0.09) 02 0.3116-0.0562 0.1281 0.4014 694 (7.53)*** (-1.00) (0.46) (1.02) 03 3.7031-1.0720-3.6857 1.0729 66 (4.01)*** (-0.89) (-0.75) (0.16) 04 0.4326-0.0644 0.5748-0.2517 469 (5.93)*** (-0.65) (1.87)* (-0.62) 05 4.2870-3.1728-3.7701 3.2512 127 (3.63)*** (-2.29)** (-3.10)*** (2.26)** 06 0.0983-0.0240 0.0126-0.0063 1,800 (12.30)*** (-2.23)** (0.81) (-0.30) 08 4.2305 0.5787-2.4824-1.2858 74 (2.52)** (0.25) (-1.18) (-0.45) 09 0.3084 0.2743-0.2006 0.8145 74 (0.24) (0.20) (-0.12) (0.45) 11 0.1426-0.0201-0.1005-0.0076 1,051 (8.88)*** (-0.92) (-0.76) (-0.04) 12 1.8519-0.2485 1.8519-1.5547 113 (3.19)*** (-0.32) (0.63) (-0.37) 13 0.4074 0.0556-0.2722 0.0850 212 (4.30)*** (0.45) (-0.53) (0.13) 14 2.1419-0.3870-0.9621-0.1020 107 (2.88)*** (-0.29) (-0.35) (-0.04) 15 0.1955-0.0351-0.0476 0.0415 1,014 (9.73)*** (-1.29) (-1.10) (0.70) 18 0.3933-0.0631-0.0422-0.1111 561 (2.33)** (-0.28) (-0.04) (-0.08) 20 0.6244-0.0602-0.4253-0.0241 287 (6.23)*** (-0.45) (-1.48) (-0.06) 21 11.6508-1.4915-2.4287 6.7116 17 (2.04)* (-0.18) (-0.20) (0.39) 1. t 2.* p-value<0.10 ** p-value<0.05 *** p-value<0.01 N 144

4-2-7 2004 2008 4-2-5 β 9 08 1 12 2 β 1 10 08 08 HS-8 231.59 02 β 1 02 HS-8 24.72 4-2-7 (2004 2008 ) 22 β 0 β 1 β 0 β 1 01-0.206 0.2032 3.285-3.327 168 (-3.42)*** (0.37) (2.17)** (-0.24) 02-0.019 0.365 7.392 24.716 317 (-0.67) (1.85) (4.50)*** (2.23)** 03-0.394 0.396 8.488 8.440 27 (-0.43) (0.08) (2.89)*** (0.54) 04-0.052-0.179 16.638 12.643 213 (-0.87) (-0.71) (4.08)*** (0.73) 05-1.321 1.515 180.358-99.967 54 (-1.22) (1.36) (0.98) (-0.53) 06-0.019-0.008 18.645 0.333 829 (-3.14)*** (-0.70) (10.42)*** (0.10) 08 1.374-1.981 231.990-231.592 32 (1.89)* (-2.17)** (3.05)*** (-2.43)** 09 0.223-0.293 25.638-24.933 6 (2.64)** (-2.62)** (2.64)** (-1.94)* 11-0.004-0.017 55.975-55.674 478 (-0.59) (-0.35) (6.84)*** (-0.82) 12 0.041-1.844 154.446-154.607 51 (0.26) (-2.28)** (2.98)*** (-0.58) N 145

22 β 0 β 1 β 0 β 1 13 0.165-0.014 42.429-18.653 87 (1.59) (-0.03) (3.55)*** (-0.29) 14-0.035-0.037 45.777-22.712 47 (-0.11) (-0.03) (2.45)** (-0.30) 15-0.022 0.040 81.337 1.843 461 (-1.23) (1.00) (7.34)*** (0.08) 18-0.021-0.103 59.341-31.297 254 (-0.36) (-0.30) (1.61) (-0.14) 20-0.085 0.006 128.058-106.335 130 (-1.42) (0.03) (4.50)*** (-1.31) 1. t 2.* p-value<0.10 ** p-value<0.05 *** p-value<0.01 N 1. 2004 2007 4-2-8 22 5 δ 5 22 4 1 4-2-8 (2004 2007 ) 22 β 0 δ 0 β 1 δ 1 07 0.2128 0.0657 0.3717-0.1708 511 (1.93)* (0.42) (2.38)* (-0.78) 11 0.1422-0.0088-0.0750-0.0083 2018 (0.82) (-0.49) (-4.00)*** (-0.32) 13 0.4131 0.0433 0.6241-0.2304 291 (2.78)** (0.22) (2.43)** (-0.65) 15 0.1689-0.0209-0.1206 0.0251 884 N 146

22 β 0 δ 0 β 1 δ 1 (0.11) (-0.91) (-2.28)** (0.35) 20 0.6479-0.0761 0.4274-0.3110 274 (5.58)*** (-0.49) (0.94) (-0.53) 1. t 2.* p-value<0.10 ** p-value<0.05 *** p-value<0.01 N 4-2-9 β 1 4 07 13 07 13 HS-8 0.16 0.34 3 11 HS-8 84 4-2-9 (2004 2007 ) 2 β 0 β 1 β 0 β 1 07 0.0714-0.1565 68.1848 16.2965 249 (1.55) (-2.40)** (3.51)*** (0.59) 11 0.0029-0.0147 118.7395-84.4794 941 (0.43) (-1.50) (7.83)*** (-3.90)*** 13 0.1569-0.3440 68.5712-2.7727 127 (1.55) (-1.97)** (3.41)*** (-0.08) 15-0.0140 0.0263 112.8308-61.7359 412 (-1.46) (0.86) (8.48)*** (-1.46) 20-0.1228-0.0242 187.4450 162.8435 122 (-2.82)*** (-0.14) (4.55)*** (1.01) 1. t 2.* p-value<0.10 ** p-value<0.05 *** p-value<0.01 N 147

2. 2004 2008 4-2-10 2004 2008 4-2-12 δ1 3 10% 4-2-10 (2004 2008 ) 22 β 0 δ 0 β 1 δ 1 07 0.2088 0.1105 0.3924-0.2798 511 (1.83)* (0.70) (2.43)** (-1.25) 11 0.1426-0.0201-0.0704 0.0076 2001 (11.10)*** (-1.15) (-3.83)*** (0.30) 13 0.4074 0.0556 0.6120-0.2737 291 (2.93)*** (0.30) (2.47)** (-0.80) 15 0.1955-0.0351-0.1472 0.0536 894 (9.90)*** (-1.32) (-2.37)** (0.64) 20 0.6244-0.0603 0.6223-0.3397 274 (5.68)*** (-0.41) (1.44) (-0.61) 1. t 2.* p-value<0.10 ** p-value<0.05 *** p-value<0.01 N 4-2-11 2004 2008 β 4 07 1 13 HS-8 0.24 0.38 β 3 11 11 HS-8 30.63 1 148

4-2-11 (2004 2008 ) 22 β 0 β 1 β 0 β 1 N 07 0.0864-0.2409 42.4241 1.3302 245 (1.26) (-2.49)** (3.51)*** (0.08) 11-0.0037-0.0020 55.9746-30.6321 920 (-0.74) (-0.27) (8.97)*** (-3.43)*** 13 0.1647-0.3829 42.4295-0.1448 127 (1.47) (-1.99)** (3.60)*** (-0.01) 15-0.0224 0.05348 81.3374-10.6386 403 (-1.29) (0.98) (7.65)*** (-1.14) 20-0.0852-0.0072 128.0583 155.9740 122 (-1.38) (-0.03) (4.12)*** (1.28) 1. t 2.* p-value<0.10 ** p-value<0.05 *** p-value<0.01 149

HS-8 22 ( ) 1. 2004 2007 4-3-1 2004 2007 22 δ1 15 22 δ1 6 04 06 08 15 18 20 10% 4-3-1 (2004 2007 ) 22 β 0 δ 0 β 1 δ 1 01 1.2819-0.3385-1.2740 0.3320 186 (2.32)** (-0.47) (-0.26) (0.06) 02 0.4827-0.1133 0.4228 0.1420 460 (5.43)*** (-0.96) (0.89) (0.21) 04 0.7281-0.2125 0.4184-0.1280 318 (4.02)*** (-0.89) (0.53) (-0.13) 05 5.90537-1.5970-4.9989 1.9237 73 N 150

22 β 0 δ 0 β 1 δ 1 (2.01)** (-0.44) (-1.64)* (0.51) 06 0.1446-0.0337 0.0031-0.0020 1371 (7.45)*** (-1.30) (0.09) (-0.04) 08 4.3641 0.4651-1.5640-1.5651 64 (2.21)** (0.17) (-0.62) (-0.46) 09 0.3484 0.0130-0.2726 1.2428 71 (0.22) (0.01) (-0.14) (0.61) 11 0.1800-0.0165-0.1755 0.0131 865 (8.21)*** (-0.56) (-0.57) (0.03) 12 1.8473-0.0714 0.1216 0.1523 109 (2.69)*** (-0.07) (0.03) (0.03) 13 0.5367-0.0156-0.5085 0.0682 202 (4.24)*** (-0.09) (-0.76) (0.08) 14 3.0325-0.5148-0.0717 0.5566 71 (2.07)*** (-0.26) (-0.01) (0.08) 15 0.2540-0.0402-0.0921-0.0286 869 (8.76)*** (-1.03) (-1.20) (-0.29) 18 0.4200-0.0564 0.2140-0.2126 508 (5.65)*** (-0.56) (0.53) (-0.38) 20 0.6295-0.0714-0.4448-0.0145 282 (5.61)*** (-0.47) (-1.41) (-0.03) 21 11.8367-0.5498-3.2653 2.4744 17 (1.68) (-0.06) (-0.22) (0.12) 1. t 2.* p-value<0.10 ** p-value<0.05 *** p-value<0.01 N 4-3-2 2004 2007 β1 9 08 08 HS-8 1.97 9 08 15 08 HS-8 151

99.76 15 HS-8 13.64 09 4-3-2 (2004 2007 ) 22 β 0 β 1 β 0 β 1 N 01-0.7404 0.7352-0.4835 0.4734 78 (-2.56) (0.29) (-0.50) (0.06) 02-0.0207 0.0494 1.3348 1.6325 200 (-0.49) (0.22) (3.47)*** (0.79) 04-0.0556-0.1923 10.5950 2.1247 132 (-0.49) (-0.39) (3.14)*** (0.14) 05 2.7111-1.9029 79.0158-60.0724 29 (1.04) (-0.71) (1.52) (-1.11) 06-0.0134-0.0076 3.1744-0.3724 613 (-0.78) (-0.24) (4.90)*** (-0.31) 08 0.9041-1.9708 90.0633-99.7696 28 (1.10) (-1.89)* (2.75)*** (-2.40)** 09 0.0558-0.0739 8.7462-7.7241 5 (2.24)* (-2.43)* (3.28)* (-2.36)* 11 0.0125-0.0160 28.6120-28.7546 387 (0.63) (-0.06) (7.12)*** (-0.51) 12-0.0043 0.0852 52.5624 11.9628 53 (-0.04) (0.15) (2.86)** (0.13) 13 0.1352-0.1396 10.5468-10.3186 83 (1.28) (-0.25) (3.07)*** (-0.57) 14-0.0499 0.0917 14.9278 0.8210 32 (-0.13) (0.07) (2.50)** (0.04) 15-0.0184-0.0265 21.2512-13.6458 386 (-1.24) (-0.67) (7.74)*** (-1.87)* 18-0.0255-0.1978 10.5414-4.4840 233 (-0.38) (-0.55) (2.63)** (-0.21) 20-0.1330 0.0520 61.0419-53.8540 126 152

22 β 0 β 1 β 0 β 1 N (-2.99) (0.42) (3.86)*** (-1.21) 21-0.5498 2.4744 0.6079 0.2491 7 (-0.85) (1.80) (1.32) (0.25) 1. t 2.* p-value<0.10 ** p-value<0.05 *** p-value<0.01 2. 2004 2008 4-3-3 2004 2008 4-3-1 δ1 4 4-3-3 (2004 2008 ) 2 β 0 δ 0 β 1 δ 1 N 02 0.6122-0.1682 0.3411 0.4971 371 (5.88)*** (-1.22) (0.63) (0.68) 04 0.9425-0.3164-0.0363 0.0134 265 (3.82)*** (-0.99) (-0.04) (0.01) 05 9.9148-7.1428-8.7538 7.2270 52 (2.77)** (-1.78)* (-2.39)** (1.75) * 06 0.1742-0.0689-0.0254 0.0171 1263 (7.72)*** (-2.31)** (-0.60) (0.30) 08 5.1707 1.0393-2.5956-2.2235 59 (2.34)** (0.33) (-0.91) (-0.56) 09 0.3057 0.2833-0.2304 1.1353 60 (0.20) (0.18) (-0.12) (0.58) 153

2 β 0 δ 0 β 1 δ 1 N 11 0.1880-0.0358-0.1776 0.0262 838 (7.80)*** (-1.12) (-0.39) (0.05) 12 1.9228-0.2314 0.0054 0.0972 110 (2.68)*** (-0.24) (0.00) (0.02) 13 0.5814-0.0485-0.5411 0.1275 196 (4.51)*** (-0.29) (-0.67) (0.12) 14 3.6344-0.8869-0.6781 1.0053 63 (2.17)*** (-0.40) (-0.13) (0.14) 15 0.3027-0.0757-0.1429-0.0414 768 (8.56)*** (-1.62) (-1.18) (-0.26) 18 0.4609-0.0861 0.1944-0.2055 480 (5.19)*** (-0.72) (0.40) (-0.31) 20 0.5962-0.0464-0.4395-0.0211 284 (5.43)*** (-0.32) (-1.42) (-0.05) 21 13.3259-4.0635-3.3039 11.6208 16 (2.05)* (-0.46) (-0.25) (0.64) 1. t 2.* p-value<0.10 ** p-value<0.05 *** p-value<0.01 4-3-4 2004 2008 4-3-2 9 08 08 HS-8 2.18 12 08 HS-8 61.6 154

4-3-4 (2004 2008 ) 2 β 0 β 1 β 0 β 1 N 02-0.0575 0.5625 0.9027 2.6532 159 (-1.07) (2.03)** (4.23)*** (2.41)** 04-0.0703-0.0518 9.1219-1.1609 105 (-0.51) (-0.09) (2.94)*** (-0.09) 05 1.1733-0.7444 100.9230-84.9071 21 (0.35) (-0.22) (1.79)* (-1.47) 06-0.0489 0.0086 2.9036-0.3605 551 (-1.95)* (0.18) (5.73)*** (-0.38) 08 1.0393-2.1847 58.7943-61.6050 26 (1.39) (-2.25)** (2.90)*** (-2.34)** 09 0.3989-0.4001 8.1544-7.4698 5 (2.52)* (-2.07)* (2.61)* (-1.95) 11 0.0054-0.0156 12.0561-12.4332 358 (0.23) (-0.03) (6.34)*** (-0.34) 12-0.0431-0.0911 33.2833-4.6788 51 (-0.32) (-0.13) (2.60)** (-0.07) 13 0.1410-0.1438 5.3744-5.1647 78 (1.22) (-0.20) (3.29)*** (-0.50) 14-0.0792 0.1976 8.4969-0.5325 27 (-0.14) (0.11) (2.54)** (-0.05) 15-0.0409-0.0491 12.9225-12.3495 324 (-1.38) (-0.47) (5.83)*** (-1.58) 18-0.0403-0.1993 7.5294-2.1804 213 (-0.42) (-0.38) (2.48)** (-0.13) 20-0.0794 0.0164 39.2348-34.3159 127 (-1.00) (0.07) (3.62)*** (-1.12) 21-2.5736 10.1329 0.0839 0.6449 7 (-3.14) (6.18) (0.98) (3.76)*** 1. t 2.* p-value<0.10 ** p-value<0.05 *** p-value<0.01 155

( ) 1. 2004 2007 4-3-5 22 5 δ 5 22 4 1 4-3-5 (2004 2007 ) 22 β 0 δ 0 β 1 δ 1 07 0.2384 0.0600 0.4537-0.2260 451 (1.42) (0.26) (1.94)* (-0.71) 11 0.1800-0.0165-0.0994-0.0175 1719 (9.41)*** (-0.64) (-3.66)*** (-0.48) 13 0.5367-0.0156 0.5523-0.2264 281 (2.98)*** (-0.07) (1.81)* (-0.54) 15 0.2540-0.0402-0.2207 0.0522 814 (8.88)*** (-1.04) (-2.38)** (0.43) 20 0.6295-0.0714 0.5353-0.3739 269 (5.18)*** (-0.44) (1.14) (-0.62) 1. t 2.* p-value<0.10 ** p-value<0.05 *** p-value<0.01 N 4-3-6 β 1 4 07 13 156

07 13 HS-8 0.21 0.37 4 11 15 11 HS-8 22.28 15 15 15.28 4-3-6 (2004 2007 ) 22 β 0 β 1 β 0 β 1 07 0.1095-0.2160 19.9112-0.3670 210 (1.04) (-2.21)** (2.57) (-0.03) 11 0.0125-0.0352 28.6120-22.2818 763 (0.79) (-1.56) (9.53)*** (-5.22)*** 13 0.1352-0.3774 10.5468-3.8764 123 (1.15) (-1.90)* (3.26)*** (-0.71) 15-0.0184 0.0339 21.2512-15.2827 366 (-1.40) (0.79) (7.86)*** (-1.75)* 20-0.1330-0.0580 61.0419 66.0112 118 (-2.89)*** (-0.33) (3.58)*** (1.00) 1. t 2.* p-value<0.10 ** p-value<0.05 *** p-value<0.01 N 2. 2004 2008 4-3-7 2004 2008 4-3-5 δ1 3 157

4-3-7 (2004 2008 ) 22 β 0 δ 0 β 1 δ 1 N 07 0.2499 0.1171 0.4877-0.3948 438 (1.38) (0.48) (1.95)* (-1.17) 11 0.1880-0.0358-0.0913 0.0004 1617 (8.68)*** (-1.25) (-2.94)** (0.01) 13 0.5814-0.0485 0.5265-0.2566 275 (3.24)*** (-0.21) (1.73)* (-0.62) 15 0.3027-0.0757-0.2718 0.0868 779 (8.68)*** (-1.64) (-2.52)** (0.61) 20 0.5962-0.0464 0.7271-0.4072 271 (4.86)*** (-0.28) (1.53) (-0.66) 1. t 2.* p-value<0.10 ** p-value<0.05 *** p-value<0.01 4-3-8 4 07 13 07 13 HS-8 0.34 0.41 4 11 11 HS-8 7.97 158

4-3-8 (2004 2008 ) 22 β 0 β 1 β 0 β 1 07 0.1388-0.3402 12.2094-3.4571 197 (1.15) (-2.02)** (2.51)** (-0.51) 11 0.0054-0.0238 12.0561-7.9740 695 (0.29) (-0.88) (8.11)*** (-3.74)*** 13 0.1410-0.4108 5.3744-2.1246 117 (1.06) (-1.82)* (3.32)*** (-0.77) 15-0.0409 0.0589 12.9225-9.6563 333 (-1.42) (0.66) (5.91) (-1.43) 20-0.0794-0.0486 39.2348 54.0234 119 (-0.97) (-0.15) (3.31)*** (1.18) 1. t 2.* p-value<0.10 ** p-value<0.05 *** p-value<0.01 N ( ) 1. 2004 2007 4-3-9 2004 2007 22 δ1 17 22 δ1 7 04 08 11 13 14 15 20 10% 159

4-3-9 (2004 2007 ) 22 β 0 δ 0 β 1 δ 1 01 0.9520-0.2717-0.9400 0.2601 257 (3.96)*** (-0.86) (-0.65) (0.13) 02 0.4180-0.0874-0.1456 0.3110 539 (7.16)*** (-1.11) (-0.45) (0.71) 03 7.1150-2.7869-6.7261 2.8514 38 (2.84)*** (-0.88) (-0.69) (0.21) 04 0.5188-0.1087 1.1955-0.4452 373 (3.81)*** (-0.60) (2.38) (-0.68) 05 1.8063-0.0483-1.3712 0.1565 94 (1.06) (-0.02) (-0.78) (0.07) 06 0.1053-0.0220 0.0064 0.0246 1356 (7.89)*** (-1.23) (0.26) (0.73) 08 5.4725-0.3528-3.4657-0.3437 69 (3.33)*** (-0.15) (-1.68)* (-0.12) 09 0.1146 0.2926-0.0643 0.3057 70 (0.13) (0.32) (-0.06) (0.25) 11 0.1948-0.0259-0.1435-0.0035 965 (7.24)*** (-0.71) (-0.50) (-0.01) 12 1.8293-0.0991 1.5217 0.0329 108 (3.38)*** (-0.13) (0.55) (0.01) 13 0.3350 0.2574-0.2547-0.1699 198 (1.14) (0.67) (-0.17) (-0.08) 14 2.9068-0.3624 0.3804-0.2952 72 (4.78)*** (-0.44) (0.19) (-0.10) 15 0.1597-0.0142 0.0887-0.0753 854 (5.57)*** (-0.36) (1.31) (-0.82) 17 0.8620-0.3186-0.8542 0.3417 301 (4.41)*** (-1.28) (-0.40) (0.11) 18 0.4805-0.0750-0.2666 0.0702 461 (4.15)*** (-0.48) (-0.42) (0.08) 20 0.6197-0.0625-0.2392-0.0655 278 (4.30)*** (-0.32) (-0.58) (-0.11) 21 14.5000-3.0662-8.0003 12.2651 15 (3.12)*** (-0.47) (-0.86) (0.93) 1. t 2.* p-value<0.10 ** p-value<0.05 *** p-value<0.01 N 160

4-3-10 2004 2007 β1 10 05 15 05 HS-8 1.43 15 HS-8 0.06 11 05 08 05 HS-8 44.46 08 HS-8 24.48 4-3-10 (2004 2007 ) 2 0 β β β 1 β 0 1 01-0.3937 0.3820-3.8024 3.6673 107 (-3.60)*** (0.58) (-3.12)*** (0.50) 02-0.0300 0.3156-0.2045 5.9997 241 (-1.30) (2.47)** (-0.46) (2.46)** 03-0.9841 1.0486 1.4541-1.3355 14 (-0.26) (0.07) (1.50) (-0.36) 04-0.1457-0.3063 3.3664 9.2065 163 (-1.61)* (-0.92) (1.70)* (1.26) 05 1.7085-1.4394 52.6158-44.4652 39 (2.08)** (-1.71)* (2.11)** (-1.74)* 06-0.0087 0.2168 2.8346 1.4269 614 (-0.76) (1.03) (3.98) (1.09) 08 0.1124-0.6197 25.8331-24.4829 29 (0.30) (-1.33) (3.04)*** (-2.29)** 09 0.1831-0.2170 3.7391-3.8870 6 (2.00)* (-1.79) (2.33) (-1.83) 11-0.0103-0.0192 5.2810-9.0355 448 (-1.20) (-0.21) (2.71) (-0.44) 12 0.0022-0.0684 12.5528 8.9176 52 N 161

2 0 β β β 1 β 0 1 (0.02) (-0.10) (2.40)** (0.33) 13 0.4415-0.3721 7.3402-6.0942 82 (1.30) (-0.21) (1.44) (-0.23) 14-0.0606-0.5969 1.0948-0.4973 33 (-0.11) (-0.31) (1.83) (-0.25) 15 0.0030-0.0634 5.3087-1.6105 392 (0.23) (-2.04)** (3.96)*** (-0.51) 17-0.1958 0.2189 12.4410-11.4079 116 (-1.78)* (0.18) (3.48)*** (-0.30) 18-0.0163 0.0116 5.1822-2.7875 211 (-0.32) (0.04) (2.64)*** (-0.26) 20-0.4905-0.0623 11.5372-8.1272 124 (-0.55) (-0.24) (3.04)*** (-0.74) 21-3.0662 12.2651-0.0436 0.1047 7 (-1.11) (2.22)* (-1.74) (2.08)* 1. t 2.* p-value<0.10 ** p-value<0.05 *** p-value<0.01 N 2. 2004 2008 4-3-11 2004 2008 δ 6 1 4-3-11 (2004 2008 ) 22 β 0 δ 0 β 1 δ 1 02 0.5024-0.1181-0.2126 0.8838 449 (6.84)*** (-1.20) (-0.54) (1.59) 03 8.3321-2.4667-8.3173 2.7402 30 (2.42)** (-0.55) (-0.67) (0.16) 04 0.6636-0.1800 1.1216-0.1719 309 (3.60)*** (-0.74) (1.67) (-0.20) 05 3.1920 2.8434-2.8595-2.6167 74 (1.97)* (1.24) (-1.71)* (-1.11) N 162

22 β 0 δ 0 β 1 δ 1 06 0.1250-0.0237 0.0080-0.0082 1233 (8.48)*** (-1.21) (0.31) (-0.23) 08 6.4017-0.5702-4.9445 0.1817 67 (3.34)*** (-0.21) (-2.05)** (0.06)) 09 0.1423 0.4419-0.0731 0.3858 59 (0.14) (0.41) (-0.05) (0.24) 11 0.2014-0.0352-0.1577 0.0059 949 (6.65)*** (-0.86) (-0.50) (0.01) 12 1.9088-0.2239 1.3247-0.1850 108 (3.30)*** (-0.28) (0.45) (-0.04) 13 0.3547 0.2253-0.2281-0.0078 182 (1.29) (0.63) (-0.13) (-0.00) 14 2.9532-0.4980-0.1365 0.7341 73 (4.41)*** (-0.55) (-0.06) (0.23) 15 0.1986-0.0598 0.0286 0.0329 779 (5.91)*** (-1.33) (0.33) (0.29) 18 0.4937-0.0995-0.2448 0.0583 462 (4.06)*** (-0.61) (-0.37) (0.06) 20 0.6050-0.0538-0.1953-0.1498 277 (4.13)*** (-0.27) (-0.45) (-0.25) 21 20.4373-13.5063-11.3119 37.0536 12 (3.62)*** (-1.78) (-1.16) (2.72)** 1. t 2.* p-value<0.10 ** p-value<0.05 *** p-value<0.01 N 4-3-12 2004 2008 8 05 HS-8 2.56 8 05 08 05 HS-8 95.40 08 HS-8 17.43 163

4-3-12 (2004 2008 ) 22 β 0 β 1 β 0 β 1 02-0.0524 0.8181-0.3770 7.4234 201 (-0.98) (2.84)*** (-0.78) (2.86)*** 03-5.5881 5.8617 0.2334-0.1769 12 (-2.02)* (0.59) (1.27) (-0.27) 04-0.1990 0.0906 0.1272 8.9650 132 (-1.11) (0.14) (0.05) (1.05) 05 2.8434-2.5363 106.8087-95.4081 33 (2.61)** (-2.26)** (2.74)*** (-2.37)** 06-0.0187-0.0012 2.2531 0.1460 544 (-1.30) (-0.05) (5.21)*** (0.19) 08-0.0406-0.2678 19.1939-17.0356 29 (-0.11) (-0.56) (3.25)*** (-2.29)** 09 0.3709-0.4162 3.2585-3.3535 5 (1.67) (-1.32) (1.73) (-1.26) 11-0.0135-0.0124 3.4951-4.8278 431 (-1.37) (-0.12) (3.44) (-0.46) 12 0.0149-0.4239 9.3097 1.3075 50 (0.08) (-0.46) (2.37)** (0.07) 13 0.4225-0.2529 4.4590-2.7165 75 (1.39) (-0.14) (1.62) (-0.16) 14-0.1756 0.4117 0.6194 0.2110 33 (-0.25) (0.17) (1.51) (0.15) 15-0.0353 0.0903 3.5751 4.3724 339 (-1.83)* (1.81)* (3.18)*** (1.51) 18-0.0598 0.0185 3.2680-1.8294 205 (-1.07) (0.06) (2.28) (-0.23) 20-0.0285-0.1460 8.2385-6.5755 123 (-0.22) (-0.38) (2.99)*** (-0.80) 21-11.7858 35.3331-0.0230 0.1835 5 (-2.80)** (4.85)*** (-1.22) (5.58)*** 1. t 2.* p-value<0.10 ** p-value<0.05 *** p-value<0.01 N 164