untitled

T_ReportAbstract T_FSAndVSAbstract 迅 嘉 机 构 内 参 - http://www.123678.net T_PricingInfo 39.00 42.90 45.50 52.00 2009-11-26 T_IPOInfo 6,000 2,000 400 1,600 2009-12-01 T_ShareInfo T_Analyst 43.65% 11.60% 10.46% 4.90% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 010-66581623 zhaonan@essence.com.cn 2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E 404.4 484.3 570.4 664.1 778.6 Growth(%) 23.7% 19.8% 17.8% 16.4% 17.2% 45.1 74.4 103.7 126.8 162.7 Growth(%) 32.6% 76.0% 39.4% 22.2% 28.3% (%) 46.9% 53.1% 58.8% 59.5% 61.3% (%) 10.5% 15.4% 18.2% 19.1% 20.9% () 0.53 0.93 1.30 1.58 2.03 () 2.18 2.87 3.31 4.42 5.85 - - - - - (%) 34.6% 43.1% 39.1% 35.8% 34.8% ROIC(%) 27.2% 38.9% 45.9% 45.7% 52.0% EV/EBITDA - - - - - 1

1. 1.1. 1.2. 2619 43.65% 2619 32.74% 627.435 10.46% 627.435 7.84% 2753.565 45.89% 2753.565 34.42% 2000 25% 6000 100% 8000 100% 1.3. 1.4. 1 2619 43.65% 2 627.435 10.46% 3 180 3% 4 180 3% 5 39.375 0.66% 6 180 3% 7 180 3% 8 180 3% 9 180 3% 2

100% 002317.SZ 20% 30% 11.11% 70% 80% 70% 30% 2. 3

60,000 50,000 100% 80% 12.69% 16.79% 21.72% 27.43% 40,000 30,000 60% 20,000 40% 87.31% 83.21% 78.28% 72.57% 10,000 20% 0 0% 2006 2007 2008 2009E 2006 2007 2008 2009H 1.02% 16 1996 2004 22.70% 1 1996 2008 2.80% 8 1985 1.53% 10 1996 2009 1-6 2008 2007 2006 64.63% 58.73% 53.27% 51.61% 80.35% 79.01% 76.54% 74.02% 2.1. 4

450 25% 376.86 300 150 173.47 17.28% 17.05% 238.14 203.45 321.26 275.92 16.43% 15.86% 20% 17.31% 15% 10% 5% 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009E 2010E 0% 1 4.94% 2 2.91% 3 2.66% 4 2.22% 5 1.82% 6 1.79% 7 1.79% 8 1.63% 9 1.16% 10 1.13% 16 1.02% 76.95% 100% 2.2. 5

8 30% 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 3.3 3.7 12.12% 4.2 13.51% 4.9 16.67% 5.7 16.33% 6.6 25% 20% 15.79% 15% 10% 5% 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009E 2010E 0% 1 22.27% 2 9.94% 3 7.72% 4 E 5.36% 5 4.25% 6 3.11% 7 3.01% 8 2.99% 9 2.98% 10 2.57% 35.80% 2.3. 6

63 25% 54 45 36 31.05 17.78% 39.5 36.57 42.04 45.13 48.86 20% 15% 27 18 9 8.01% 6.43% 7.35% 10% 8.27% 5% 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009E 2010E 0% 1 17.48% 2 11.71% 3 5.26% 4 4.82% 5 4.52% 6 4.27% 7 2.98% 8 2.80% 9 2.40% 10 1.72% 57.96% 2.4. 7

30 25% 20 10 14.63 24.83 22.37 20% 20.24 18.29 16.5 15% 12.78% 10.85% 10.66% 10.52% 11.00% 10% 5% 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009E 2010E 0% 1 13.21% 2 10.35% 3 9.44% 4 7.27% 5 4.72% 6 4.67% 7 3.72% 8 3.16% 9 1.76% 10 1.53% 40.19% 8

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 9

1 16,532 18 2 10,236 18 3 2,710 18 4 3,100 5 2,000 30 34,578 1 2 3 4 5 5. 10

2006 2007 2008 2009H 24.74 35.51 43.15 24.26 12.81 28.9 47.6 25.93 13.61 19.09 30.05 16.99 10.58 11.16 15.36 17.75 41.89 46.92 53.11 60.83 30.21 31.98 35.47 39.47 11.14 14.01 16.58 20.12 12.15 13.91 19.01 21.02 23.28 24.86 28.05 32.52 5.93 6.03 6.04 5.94 1 1.1 1.38 1.01 5.16 12.96 12.95 11.34 52.44 56.15 45.26 43.62 2.1 2.28 1.83 1.77 1.14 1 1.13 1.3 0.58 0.61 0.81 1.01 12.3 12.82 13.92 21.12 191.26 155.83 118.89 111.9 161.57 126.76 87.59 74.15 29.69 29.07 31.29 37.75 2.23 2.84 4.11 2.43 11

2006 2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E 9,721 13,041 17,813 23,157 28,946 36,182 34.16% 36.59% 30% 25% 25% 7,119 10,467 15,002 19,915 24,894 31,117 73.23% 80.26% 84.22% 87.00% 87.00% 87.00% 5,253 6,719 8,321 10,235 12,282 14,738 27.91% 23.84% 23% 20% 20% 2,339 3,121 4,398 5,731 6,878 8,253 44.53% 46.45% 52.86% 57.00% 57.00% 57.00% 1,897 1,782 2,309 2,425 2,546 2,673-6.10% 29.60% 5.00% 5.00% 5.00% 666 825 998 1,212 1,273 1,337 35.12% 46.32% 43.21% 50.00% 50.00% 50.00% 2,146 3,247 4,093 4,912 5,894 7,073 51.28% 26.06% 20.00% 20.00% 20.00% 62 215 1,163 1,474 1,768 2,122 2.88% 6.62% 28.42% 30.00% 30.00% 30.00% 19,017 24,789 32,536 40,728 49,668 60,667 5.36% 9.59% 25.18% 21.95% 22.15% 10,186 14,628 21,562 29,361 35,225 43,338 53.56% 59.01% 66.27% 72.09% 70.92% 71.44% 1,095 1,113 1,141 1,164 1,187 1,211 1.63% 2.56% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% 220 226 235 233 237 242 20.08% 20.33% 20.64% 20.00% 20.00% 20.00% 609 1,213 1,136 1,159 1,182 1,206 99.14% -6.29% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% 68 30 86 116 118 121 11.24% 2.44% 7.56% 10.00% 10.00% 10.00% 775 1,146 1,113 1,113 1,113 1,113 47.91% -2.90% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 625 914 864 857 857 857 80.73% 79.77% 77.65% 77.00% 77.00% 77.00% 11,194 12,180 12,504 12,880 13,266 13,664 8.81% 2.66% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 2,593 3,175 2,977 2,962 3,051 3,143 23.16% 26.07% 23.81% 23.00% 23.00% 23.00% 13,672 15,651 15,894 16,315 16,748 17,193 14.47% 1.55% 2.65% 2.65% 2.66% 3,507 4,345 4,162 4,168 4,264 4,362 25.65% 27.76% 26.19% 25.55% 25.46% 25.37% 32,690 40,440 48,431 57,043 66,416 77,860 23.71% 19.76% 17.78% 16.43% 17.23% 18,997 21,468 22,707 25,995 29,371 33,458 13,692 18,973 25,724 33,528 39,488 47,700 41.89% 46.92% 53.11% 58.78% 59.46% 61.26% 12

T_FSAndVS 2009-11-26 2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E 2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E 404.4 484.3 570.4 664.1 778.6 214.7 227.1 235.1 269.2 301.6 23.7% 19.8% 17.8% 16.4% 17.2% 3.3 4.2 5.0 5.3 6.2 55.6% 41.8% 46.4% 22.8% 29.7% 100.5 135.9 168.3 192.6 225.8 32.6% 76.0% 39.4% 22.2% 28.3% 24.4 29.2 34.2 39.8 46.7 EBITDA 46.2% 38.1% 37.7% 22.2% 25.3% 4.4 6.7 10.2 12.7 10.9 EBIT 53.9% 42.4% 47.0% 22.9% 26.1% 0.5 1.0 - - - NOPLAT 30.0% 63.7% 40.3% 22.4% 24.9% - - - - - 14.5% 19.0% 22.7% 9.8% 9.6% - 0.0 - - - -5.9% 32.0% 53.7% 33.5% 32.2% 56.6 80.3 117.6 144.4 187.3-4.8 5.1 3.0 3.0 3.0 46.9% 53.1% 58.8% 59.5% 61.3% 51.9 85.5 120.6 147.4 190.3 14.0% 16.6% 20.6% 21.7% 24.1% 6.7 11.1 16.9 20.6 27.6 10.5% 15.4% 18.2% 19.1% 20.9% 45.1 74.4 103.7 126.8 162.7 EBITDA/ 17.7% 20.4% 23.8% 25.0% 26.7% 2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E EBIT/ 15.1% 18.0% 22.4% 23.7% 25.5% 45.2 49.6 245.6 253.1 364.7 - - - - - 80 77 70 62 56 38.7 45.9 56.1 65.3 76.5 63 64 73 80 78 9.2 18.2 20.3 23.7 27.7 152 121 167 207 213 7.8 0.7 0.5 0.2-0.1 32 34 34 34 34 65.9 44.6 51.5 59.0 66.1 67 41 30 30 29 - -0.0-5.1-6.1-7.2 262 228 269 301 298 - - - - - 172 168 172 171 160 - - - - - - 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 ROE 34.6% 43.1% 39.1% 35.8% 34.8% - - - - - ROA 15.2% 23.6% 19.3% 22.1% 22.8% 95.6 111.3 110.8 117.0 123.9 ROIC 27.2% 38.9% 45.9% 45.7% 52.0% 2.0 1.4 6.9 10.1 12.1 31.3 32.9 32.9 32.9 32.9 24.9% 28.1% 29.5% 29.0% 29.0% 2.0 3.3 10.2 10.9 11.4 6.0% 6.0% 6.0% 6.0% 6.0% 297.7 314.9 536.6 573.2 715.1 1.1% 1.4% 1.8% 1.9% 1.4% 90.0 86.5 239.0 179.8 200.0 / 32.0% 35.5% 37.3% 36.9% 36.4% 47.5 44.8 17.4 19.9 22.3 - - - - - 56.1% 45.3% 50.6% 38.3% 34.6% 28.6 9.5 13.5 18.0 23.4 128.0% 82.7% 102.5% 62.0% 52.9% - - - - - 1.00 1.13 1.37 1.82 2.15 1.1 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 0.61 0.81 1.18 1.54 1.88 167.2 142.5 271.6 219.4 247.4 13.78 13.05 12.51 12.36 18.13 11.6 - - - - 60.0 60.0 80.0 80.0 80.0 DPS() - 0.35 0.39 0.48 0.61 59.0 112.4 185.0 273.7 387.6 0.0% 28.2% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 130.6 172.4 265.0 353.7 467.6 2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E 2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E 45.1 74.4 103.7 126.8 162.7 EPS() 0.70 1.24 1.30 1.58 2.03 11.1 12.6 8.1 9.0 9.9 BVPS() 2.18 2.87 3.31 4.42 5.85 0.5 1.0 - - - PE(X) - - - - - PB(X) - - - - - 3.5 4.7 6.8 10.2 12.7 P/FCF - - - - - - -0.0 - - - P/S - - - - - 2.9 - - - - EV/EBITDA - - - - - -19.6-34.0-43.0-12.6-14.2 CAGR(%) 41.1% 29.8% 25.6% -100.0% -100.0% 49.4 72.9 79.1 135.9 169.4 PEG - - - - - -45.3-37.7-17.0-17.0-17.0 ROIC/WACC 4.6 6.5 7.7 7.7 8.7-8.6-30.7 131.2-110.0-39.5 REP - - - - - Wind.NET 13

6 300 15% 6 300 5% 15% 6 300-5% 5% 6 300 5% 15% 6 300 15% A 300 B 300 T_Sales 021-67865293 zhuxian@essence.com.cn 021-68765237 lingjie@essence.com.cn 021-68766067 liangtao@essences.com.cn 021-68763872 ligr@essence.com.cn 021-68765206 nanfang@essence.com.cn 021-68763879 zhangqin@essence.com.cn 010-66581676 zhourong@essence.com.cn 010-66581668 mazn@essence.com.cn 010-66581689 lixin@essence.com.cn 0755-82558268 panlin@essence.com.cn 0755-82558089 zhangqp@essence.com.cn 0755-82558087 wangyy3@essence.com.cn 0755-82558084 lijin@essence.com.cn : 518026 : 200122 : 100034 14