(129) 23 tariff quota TRQ 15 SSG SSG 33.3% 90% Coercial Policy Analysis Syste COMPAS COMPAS tariff quota TRQ 288 1-3 10-12 2 144 25% 110 369% 703 Spec

(128) * ** COMPAS WTO WTO WTO Iport relief Trigger quantitytrigger price90% Special Safeguard Clause SSG WTO * **

(129) 23 tariff quota TRQ 15 SSG SSG 33.3% 90% Coercial Policy Analysis Syste COMPAS COMPAS tariff quota TRQ 288 1-3 10-12 2 144 25% 110 369% 703 Special Safeguard SSGTrigger quantity 434% 55 14% 50% 80% 20% 490 100 160 2003 19,262 34.85% 2005 9 4.71%

(130) 3-9 5-10 200 6 1 1 78,678 68,000 74,621 35,802 37,441 36,425 (26,026) (23,207) (24,955) 196 203 198 8,023 8,134 8,065 589 600 593 123,288 114,378 119,902 14,547 14,204 14,417 2,955 2,866 2,921 141,939 132,520 138,359 http://ww.coa.gov.tw/view.php?catid=207 WTO 288 1-3 10-12 2 144 25% 110 /kg 369% 2004 2006 4 5 2006 11.89

(131) 2007 231.16 US International Trade Coission USITCCoercial Policy Analysis Syste COMPAS USITC COMPAS COMPAS COMPAS Arington1969a, 1969b Arington log-linear 2006, 2008 COMPAS 1999 15 10%20% 30% 1997 COMPAS

(132) Bhagwati harassent effectprusa1997 trade diversionbown and Crowley2007trade destruction price undertaking Krupp and Pollard1996 17 Prusa 2001 Durling and Prusa2006 United States International Trade Coission USITC Coercial Policy Analysis Syste COMPASCOMPAS coparative statics analysis 異 類 COMPAS (1) (2) 類 (3) 類

(133) (4) 類 (5) 類 (6) 類 類 類 COMPAS 類 log-linear function for j i d n( Qi) n( ai) iin( Pi) ijn( Pj), i, j=l,..,n 1 Q i i a i i P i i ii i ij i j 類 nq np i, i=1,.n 2 i i i 類 P / ' P d d Dt d 1 t dd Dt 1 t d ' Q Q / d 3 CC P Q dd d / Dt dd d (1 t) 1 1 t / Dt 1 1 4 T tp Q t 1 1 / D 1 5 dd d dd, d,,, d, d 類 Dt dd d d d dd d

(134) d 類 d 類 2001 2006 dd, d,,, d, d 類 COMPAS TRQ 288 1-3 10-12 2 144 25% 110 /kg 369% 328% 25% COMPAS 2007 2007 / /

(135) 328% 25% 303% COMPAS 2007 SSG 328% 25% COMPAS 2 2 COMPAS (%) 328.00% (%) -303.00% 0.02 0.038 2.79-0.014 (%) 50.0% 4,643 114,926 7 3,433 HS 8 http://www.coa.gov.tw/view.php?catid=207 http://web.custos.gov.tw/statistic/statistic/statisticlist.asp

(136) COMPAS TRQ 328% 25% 3 3 (%) -0.102% -0.004% -0.106% (%) -70.5% 2.5% -69.8% 3-70.5%2.5% 4 4-24,162-0.004%-584 25,124 3

(137) -69.8% -70.5% 2.5% -69.8% 4 24,162 584 25,124 372 4 (1) (1)=(2)+(3)+(4) $372 (2) -$24,162 (3) -$584 (4) $25,124 COMPAS 異 COMPAS COMPAS 5

(138) 5 "" "" "" WTO 6 6 Trigger quantitytrigger

(139) price90%special SafeguardSSG 2005 2006 類 GATT 19 serious injury price-basedvolue-based WTO Doha Round COMPAS 2007 類 200 類 2,000 1. 1999 2. 1998 3. WTO

(140) 2000 4. 2006 5. 2002 6. 1996 7. 1999 8. COMPAS Methodology 2 1997 203-205 9. WTO 9412-6-0781A1 WTO 2005 10. 2007WTO WTO (9) 11. 2000 26 1 12. 2003 54 4 216-248 13. 2006 11 2 309-340 14. 2007 58 1 204-227 15. 2008-- 13 2 16. Abbot, P. and B. A. Morse, Tariff Rate Quota Ipleentation and Adinistration by Developing Countries, Agricultural and Resource Econoics Review, Vol. 29, No.1: (2000), pp. 115-124. 17. Arington, P.S., The Geographic Pattern of Trade and the Effects of Price Changes, International Monetary Fund Staff Papers, Vol. 16, (1969), pp. 176-199. 18. Boughner, D. S., H. de Gorter, and I. M. Shledon, The Econoics of Two-Tier Tariff-Rate Iport Quotas in Agriculture, Agricultural and Resource Econoics Review, Vol. 29, No.1: (2000), pp. 58-69. 19. Bureau, J. C. and S. Tangeran, Tariff Rates Quotas in The EU, Agricultural and Resource Econoics Review, Vol. 29, No.1: (2000), pp. 70-80. 20. Francois, J. F. and H. K. Hall (1993), COMPAS: Coercial Policy Analysis Syste, Washington, D.C.: U.S. International Trade Coission. 21. Francois, J. F. and K. A. Reinert (eds.) (1997), Applied Methods for Trade Policy Analysis, Cabridge: Cabridge University Press. 22. Said, S. E. and D. A. Dickey (1985), Hypothesis Testing in ARIMA Models, Journal of the Aerican Statistical Association, 80, pp. 369-374. 23. Shiells, C. R., R. M. Stern, and A. V. Deardorff Sion Glance (1995),COMPAS MODEL DOCUMENT

(141) (1986), Estiates of the Elasticities of Substitution between Iports and Hoe Goods for the United States, Weltwirtschaftliches Archive, 122(3), 497-519. 24. USITC (1995), The Econoic Effects of Antiduping and Countervailing Duty Order and Suspension Agreeents, USITC Investigation No. Washington D.C.: Publication 2900. 5-9, 332-334. 25. World Trade Organization (WTO) (1995), Results of the Uruguay Round of Multilateral Trade Negotiations- Agreeent on Agriculture.