発表 5 第 10 回科学技術予測調査全体概要速報 科学技術動向研究センター長 小笠原敦
7 20141216 1970-80 1990 1995 EUAPEC 1996-2000 2000-2001-2005 2006-2010 25 1971 1997 2001 2005 2010 2010-2015- 2011-2015 2016-2015 10 2 発表 5-1
9 SciREX 3 201311 20143 20144 201410 10 201411 20153 4 発表 5-2
5 H25..... 6 発表 5-3
/ 7 WS 1. Manufacturing 2. 3. 4. 8 発表 5-4
WS 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 9 WS 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 10 発表 5-5
WS 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 11 WS 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 12 発表 5-6
WS 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. BOP 13 WS (PSS) 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. IoT 6. 7. 14 発表 5-7
; PSS / WEHAB+P NPONGO 15 16 発表 5-8
WSH25 2 H25 Web H25 17 20502050 932 201491930 web 2000 52374309 49.1% 36.4% 14.5% 30 30%40 26%50 22%60 12% 11% 18 発表 5-9
19 936 52% 40% 7% 82% 11% 6% 877 51% 42% 8% 71% 16% 13% 496 44% 25% 31% 79% 16% 6% 1431 49% 34% 17% 84% 11% 5% 833 47% 38% 16% 73% 19% 9% 672 58% 29% 13% 86% 10% 4% 509 42% 43% 15% 70% 20% 10% 324 43% 42% 15% 75% 16% 9% 20 30 40 50 60 70-4% 24% 26% 23% 7% 1% 15% 2% 28% 26% 23% 7% 1% 13% 2% 25% 27% 23% 9% 2% 12% 3% 25% 26% 22% 10% 1% 12% 2% 25% 24% 22% 14% 3% 11% 2% 36% 25% 17% 10% 1% 8% 1% 25% 26% 23% 15% 2% 8% 2% 22% 27% 25% 10% 2% 10% 20 発表 5-10
43 21 20152050 21 22 HPC CPSIoT 114 171 132 136 93 92 93 (PSS) 101 発表 5-11
a 23 b 24 発表 5-12
4321 1/3310 1/3 0% 20% 40% 60% 1/3 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 1/3 0% 20% 40% 60% 1/3 0% 20% 40% 60% 1/3 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 25 100 100 IDC100 100m 500km 1 100Kw 26 発表 5-13
100Kw 3.8 3.1 100IDC 100 3.8 3.2 3.8 3.0 HPC 3.8 3.2 3.7 3.0 3.7 3.1 3.7 3.3 3.7 3.1 3.7 2.6 3.7 3.1 2029 2035 2021 2021 2026 2028 4321 27 [] 10-18 3.5 3.4 3.5 3.4 3.4 3.6 3.4 3.5 XSPring-8 3.4 3.6 ips 3.4 2.9 1800MPa3-40 4321 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.3 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.5 2026 2023 2035 2021 28 発表 5-14
HPCSFQ HPC 3.6 3.3 M71 3.6 3.5 10k M8 3.6 2.9 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.3 3.4 3.4 100100 4321 3.4 3.4 3.3 3.2 3.3 2.6 3.3 2.6 2026 2033 2032 2038 2035 2040 2032 2024 2040 2040 2038 8% 40% 33% 28% 36% 27% 14% 23% 41% 37% 29 HPCSFQ HPC 10k 3.6 3.3 3.6 2.9 3.4 3.4 3.3 2.8 3.2 3.5 3.2 3.3 1/11 4321 3.2 3.1 3.2 2.6 3.2 3.4 3.2 3.3 2026 2033 2038 2040 2040 2035 2037 2040 2040 2032 2028 2035 8% 33% 27% 20% 15% 36% 23% 41% 14% 15% 30 発表 5-15
3 ips 3.9 2.9 3.7 3.3 3.7 2.5 3.6 2.6 3.6 2.8 3.6 3.0 ES 3.6 3.0 provenance 40% 4321 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.5 3.4 2036 2026 2018 2021 2040 2032 2021 2024 31 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 1. 34 32 16 13 1. 21 27 19 28 2. 21 39 21 16 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 15 22 17 26 20 18 12 37 28 30 26 23 38 25 42 35 36 23 32 28 21 15 28 17 12 21 20 22 20 32 18 10 6. 21 30 23 22 7. 7. 8. 8. 18 9 24 18 30 15 37 26 24 20 22 19 35 37 21 24 32 発表 5-16
10 HPC 3.8 3.7 ips 3.6 3.6 2024 3.6 1 2023 3.6 3.6 2021 3.6 100m 3.5 1700 2021 3.4 SiCGaN 2024 3.5 2024 3.4 2024 3.6 2024 3.6 3.5 3.4 4321 33 10 HPC PC 3.7 3.5 3.7 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.5 AUV 3.6 3.5 50% 3.4 DRAM1001001 3.6 3.5 3.6 3.4 4321 3.5 3.5 34 発表 5-17
1/3312 10%3010%30 [] / [] / [] / [] / 43 21 35 1/1000 3.5 3.0 2.9 3.2 3.5 2.9 2.9 3.4 ips 3.5 3.0 2.9 3.2 1 3.6 3.0 2.8 3.3 M71 M8 3.5 3.6 2.9 3.1 3.5 3.5 2.7 3.2 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.2 50 3.5 3.0 2.8 3.1 500km 1kWh/kg1kW/kg 3.6 2.8 2.9 3.3 3.6 3.0 3.0 3.3 * * 2023 2023 2032 2040 36 発表 5-18
3.5 3.0 3.0 2.9 3.6 3.0 2.9 2.7 3.6 3.1 2.8 2.7 3.5 3.0 3.0 2.8 * 2027 2035 2024 2024 3.5 3.0 2.8 2.7 2027 2031 3.5 3.0 3.0 2.7 2029 3.5 3.0 2.8 2.8 2028 3.4 3.1 2.9 2.6 3.4 3.3 3.0 2.5 3.5 3.0 2.9 2.9 37 * 3.4 2.3 2.3 2.9 3.4 2.3 2.4 2.9 3.4 2.3 2.3 2.7 3.5 2.3 2.2 2.5 3.5 2.4 2.3 2.7 3.6 2.3 2.3 2.7 24 * 3.5 2.3 2.0 2.3 3.4 2.2 2.3 2.6 3.5 2.2 2.2 2.9 3.4 2.3 2.3 2.9 * 2024 2021 38 発表 5-19
XSPring-8 3 GeV 1.2 nmrad10 20 phs/s/mm 2 /mrad 2 /0.1%b.w. X3 GPS 3.5 2.2 2.2 3.3 3.5 2.2 2.3 3.4 3.6 2.0 2.6 3.4 3.5 2.2 2.4 3.2 3.4 2.2 2.4 3.2 46%HHV720 3.4 2.4 2.2 3.3 1700 3.4 2.3 2.2 3.2 3.4 2.4 2.2 3.2 3.6 2.3 2.1 3.2 * 3.5 2.2 2.3 3.2 * 2021 2021 2026 39 40 発表 5-20
41 BMI WEHAB+PUN,OECD Nationalsecurity,safety G8Horizonscanning 42 ELSI 発表 5-21
http://www.nistep.go.jp/archives/18742 yosoku2014@nistep.go.jp 43 発表 5-22