第四章 _第二部份_3C產業之發展對台灣DRAM晶圓廠之影響.PDF

4-2 3C 4-2-1 3C DRAM (4-2-1) ( HDDCD-ROM ) main frame DRAM 70% DRAM 10% [ ( ) DVD LCD (Set-Top Box) (1-3-3(4))] (PDA cell phone) DRAM DRAM 3% Flash DRAM DRAM Flash 3C PC MP3 NAND Flash( Data Flash) 2006 NOR Flash( Code )(4-2-2) Flash (4-2-3 2003 NAND Flash 40 2006 115 NOR Flash) 1G NAND Flash 30 (SRAM) DRAM DRAM 1T SRAM Psudo SRAMDRAM SRAM Buffer RAM 13% 4% 8% 1% 6% 0% 2% 7% 4% 9% 0% 46% PC Mainframe Enterprise server Workstation Other Data Processing Wired Communication Mobile Communication Consumer Automotive Industrial Graphic Upgrade Modules Source: isuppli 2003/10 4-2-1 DRAM DRAM (2003) 61

Percentage 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Source: isuppli 2003/12 NOR VS NAND Percentage Revenue Split 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 NAND NOR 4-2-2 NORNAND Flash 16000 1200% 14000 1005% 1000% 12000 $10.63 MU & M$ 10000 8000 6000 $9.72 $8.64 $8.37 322% $9.21 $8.81 $8.47 800% 600% 400% ASP($) & Percentage 4000 2000 102% 154% 103% 61% 200% 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 0% Units (M) Average ASP Revenue ($M) Bit Growth Source: isuppli 2003/12 4-2-3 NAND Flash (2001~2007 ) DRAM DRAM DRAM SRAM 256MbDDR 512MbDDRII(533MHz) DRAM (STB)CD-ROM 1MbX16 SDR DVDDSC CD Player 4MbX16 SDRLCD Panel 2MbX32 SDR DSC 16MbX16 SDR LCD 8MbX16 DDR 62

2MbX32 4MbX32 DDR (>500MHz)DDR SDRAM 2D 3D DRAM 4-2-1 4-2-1(1) DRAM 3C PC 3C 2003 2006 47%54% PC 1-3-3 3C DRAM! 4-2-1(1) DRAM PC DRAM Application Demand Topline Overview - Q4 2003 Update Source: isuppli, DRAM Market Update(2003/Q4) 4-2-1(2) DRAM Source: isuppli, DRAM Market Update(2003/Q2) 63

FLASH Flash (NVM) RAM ( DSCMobile PhonePDA ) NOR Flash PC BiasVCD/DVDSTBMobile Phone 3C (as Code Flash4-2-4 4-2-2) 2Mb Bias VCD 8Mb/16Mb DVD STB 16Mb/32Mb/64Mb Silicon Strategies Data Flash (4-2-4 4-2-3) 64MB(MMC)512MB(CF) Combo NAND Flash NOR NAND NOR Flash ( FASL LLC SST) NAND Flash NOR NOR Flash (4-2-3) Flash Memory is in Virtually Every Electronic Device Program Codes Storage Network Hard Disk MP3 PDA DVD-ROM Cellular MP3 PDA Digital Camera Mass Data Storage 4-2-4 Data Code Flash 4-2-2 NOR Flash 512Mb/4Gb Card / Pendrive : 2003/12 64

4-2-3 NAND Flash Compact Flash (CF) SmartMedia MultiMedia Card (MMC) Secure Digital (SD) Memory Stick (MS) USB Flash Drive Product Data Xfer(Avr.MB/s) 4 2 0.3 2 1.5 0.9 SDMI Security Cat. I Cat. II Cat. II Cat. III Cat. III - Form(WxDxH,mm) 42.8x36.4x3.3 37x45x0.76 24x32x1.4 24x32x2.1 21.5x50x2.8 - Write Protect None Physical Electrical Physical Physical - I/O Pin 50 22 7 9 10 4 Controller Yes No Yes Yes Yes Yes NAND/NOR Chip NOR/AND NAND NOR/AND NAND NAND NAND Developer SanDisk, Hitachi TOSHIBA Siemens, SanDisk TOSHIBA,SanDisk, Matsushita SONY (Microsoft) : 2003/12 1T SRAM ( 2003) (RAM) SRAM(4T6T) DRAM 2.5G 3G JAVA RAM Buffer 2Mb/4Mb/8Mb SRAM RAM Flash Silicon embedded MCP SRAM 16Mb DRAM SRAM DRAM(LP SDRAM) SRAM 1T SRAM Pseudo SRAM DRAM cell core SRAM DRAM Mobile RAM standby(idd6) 256Mb 1.8V IDD6 250uA LP SDRAM 3.3V IDD6 1.6mA DRAM LP SDRAM1T SRAM Mobile RAM 65

4-2-2 CCD/CIS 3C CCD/CMOS CCD/CMOS (4-2-5) CCD/CMOS Camera CCD (CIF VGA) CMOS CMOS 2003 Q4 CMOS CMOS CCD CMOS CCD CMOS In-Stat/MDR(2003/Q3) 2003 CCD/CMOS 1 1 1 CMOS 5800 CCD CCD CMOS 2005 2 CCD (Sony) CCD (Matsushita) CCD CMOS (Ominivision)AgilentMicron IC (4-2-4) dark currentdynamic range white pixel : MIC 2003 4-2-5 66

4-2-4 CCD CMOS CCD Sensor IC+ASP ADC Conversion/Output Controller Image/Color/Control Processor+ CMOS Sensor IC+ASP+ADC Conversion/Output Controler Image/Color/Control Processor+ CMOS Sensor IC+ASP+ADC+Image/Color/Control Proecssor+ Conversion/Output Controller : : (2003) 4-2-3 3C (4) (Controller) (Driver) 4-2-6 (PDP) (LCD) CRT + STB (TV Controller) Controllers Drivers 4-1-1 LCD 2005 2006 2 4 LCD TV IC (4-2-7)2002 20%2003 57% 2004 65% IDM IC SoC SiP IC 15 LCD IC(3 Gate IC8 Source IC) IC ITIS IC 2004 2002 2007 17.2% 4-2-6 LCD 67

4-2-7 LCD TV IC DVD DVD IC(4-2-8) (DRAM/Flash/ROM) IC (RF Amplifier/Servo DSP) IC (MPEGII/III Decoder) IC SoC DVD Servo Processor DVD RF Amplifier DSP IC IC MPEGII Decoder Vedio/Audio IC SoC solution 20%PCB Connector SoC solution Servo DSP MPEGXX Decoder SoC DSP MPEG FLASH FLASH 4-2-8 DVD IC IC SoC 68

(PHS Baseband/LCD drivers(stn/cstn)) IC IC ( ) 50% LCD IC LCD IC LCD 4-2-3 ( 2003) DRAM (DRAM) (1) DRAM (2) (Flash) (3)CMOS DRAM 69

4-3 DRAM DRAM DRAM DRAM PDAMP3 Flash DRAM 2000 (1-1-1)DRAM (4-3-1) 3C DRAM CMOS Mobile SDRAMPsudo SRAMFLASH(4-3-1 5)DRAM DRAM (A Cell Solution Provider Semiconductor Company) ( ) SRAM(1T SRAM) (Data Flash/Code Flash) CMOS PC Legacy DRAM 2002/2003 Contract Price Trend 256M SDRAM price goes Crossover 256Mb DDR 128Mb DDR 256Mb SDR 128Mb SDR Time Period: 1H Dec ~ 2H Dec, 2003 (%: compared with last half-month price) DRAMXJuly/1H,2003 DDR333, DDR333/266 256Mb DDR 400MHz 256Mb DDR 333/266MHz High Low High Low High Low High Low High Low 2-6.9% -8.7% -5.7% -7.4% 1.8% 6.0% -2.2% 10.0% 2.9% 3.1% -13.3% -11.6% -12.4% -9.5% 0.0% 0.0% -11.8% -13.0% 0.0% 1.6% Source: DRAMeXchange (2003/12), 2003/12/25 256Mb SDRAM 133MHz 128Mb DDR 266MHz 128Mb SDRAM 133MHz 4-3-1 2002 /2003 DRAM 70

4-3-1 Samsung Micron Hynix Infineon Nanya Elpida Mosel Vit PSC Winbond Standard DIMMs/chips SODIMMs Server DIMMs Graphic memory RDRAM Legacy - 16M, 64M LP SDRAM PSRAM - Mobile Network DRAMs Flash SRAM Source: De Dios & Associates 2003/04 Minor emphasis or limited exposure DRAM RAMCMOS DRAM 2000 DRAM 3C 4-3-1 DRAM DRAM (Replacement Cycle) ( ) 2000 DRAM DRAM DRAM DRAM de Dios 2003-2005 DRAM (CAGR)44% 1994-2002 75-80%2003 23 DRAM / Q4 1.20(4-3-2) 71

Start to see DRAM undersupply by Q4 03 0.92 DeDios 0.95 1.05 1.16 1.00 isuppli(exclude inventory) isuppli(include inventory) 0.65 0.65 0.78 isuppli Quarterly Demand/Production Ratio isuppli Quarterly Demand/Supply Ratio (Supply = Production + Inventory available - Safety stock) Source: isuppli (2003/06), DeDios (2003/07) 4-3-2 DRAM (Ratio) DRAM PC ( 4-1-1) (Megabyte per System) PC PC DRAM DRAM (LCD Panel) DRAM (4-1-2) DRAM ( ) DRAM SDRAM DDR DDR RAMBUS DDRII ( 2002) CPUPC DRAM DRAM PC DRAM PC DRAM PC (DRAM 2~3 ) 2003 Q2 DDR 72

SDR DDR DRAM 2003 Q3 2003 DDR400 Springdale 5 DRAM OEM DDR400 4-3-2 DDR400 2003 Q3 15%Megabit share Q4 28% Q3 Q4 DDRII (6) 2004 DDR 2005 2006 DDR (6) JEDEC DDRII 533 400 2004Q2 DDRII533 Grantsdale DDRII533 DDR400 DDR400 2003 4-3-2 2003 DRAM Share of Megabit Production Q103 Q203 Q303 Q403 DDR266 52% 53% 35% 26% DDR333 5% 10% 22% 21% DDR400 0% 4% 15% 28% DDR Graphics 9% 8% 8% 7% >128M SDR 22% 14% 12% 10% < 128M SDR 8% 8% 8% 7% RDRAM 5% 2% 1% 1% Sum 100% 100% 100% 100% Source: De Dios & Associates 2003/04 Notebooks, Servers Commercial desktop, Notebook PC Consumer desktop, Workstation Will push move to DDR - II PC 10% MP3 DRAM NAND Flash (Data Flash)NAND Flash2003 NAND Flash 2006 115 NOR Flash( 4-2-3) Flash NOR ( SST) core (Muti Level Circuitry MLC) Data Flash Flash DRAM 73

data sheet data sheet Data Flash Flash DRAM isuppli(1-3-1) 2006 DRAM 180 Flash Flash DRAM 2006 DRAM 200 DRAM NAND Flash 1T SRAM / Mobile RAM 1T SRAM refresh refresh LP SDRAM 1T SRAM LP SDRAM Mobile RAM 2004 5 (4-1-3) 2G 16Mb 1T SRAM 2.5 18 1T SRAM DRAM (3G Smart Phone) Mobile RAM 128Mb DRAM (<1.8V) CMOS DRAM CMOS CMOS DRAM 4-3-2 DRAM (7) DRAM DRAM(SDRAM DDR266/333/400DDRII533) SDRAM/ SRAM CMOS Foundry (Legacy/Graphic DRAMEmbedded Memory ) 3 5 2000 2003 ( ) 2004 2007 (2008 ) 74

2000 (0.35um 16Mb SGRAM) DRAM (0.18/0.25um 64Mb SDR 0.20um 128Mb SDR) (0.25um PB SRAM 0.5um CMOS Sensor) 2001 0.25um 32Mb BiNOR Flash DRAM 2001 2002 tape out (3-4-1) ( / ) 2003 Flash(0.10/0.15/ 0.18/0.25 um)cmos (0.18/0.25/0.4um) 2003 NAND Flash 40 2006 115 NOR Flash(4-2-3)CMOS CCD 3 5 DRAM 3C LCD DVD DRAM DRAM CPU DRAM DRAMPHS MCU 2002 DRAM 50% 2003 50% 2004 80% 10% DRAM 2005 40% NAND Flash40% DRAM20% DRAM 70% 30% OEM 4 DRAM C-RAM( )M-RAM( )FLASHDRAMFlash (A Memory Solution Provider Company) (3-4-1) DRAM (256MbDDR/512MbDDRII) 64Mb/128MbSDRAM/LP SRAM) (2Mb/8Mb/16Mb NOR 75

1Gb Data Flash)CMOS (CIF/VGA/ )LOGIC ( PHS/MCU) (1T SRAM/Graphic DRAM) (Samsung) Flash DRAM 1999 2000 (GSI) (0.32µm 16M SDRAM0.28µm 16Mb(2Mb 8; 1MbX16)64Mb SDRAM) IBM DRAM (0.20um 64Mb SDR0.175um 128Mb SDR/DDR 256Mb SDR) 0.28/0.25um SRAMLCD Driver 1999 16Mb 94% 2000 64Mb 77%(89 (p14)) DRAM OEM 3-4-3 2000 DDR DRAM OEM DRAM DRAM OEM? 2002 2004 DDR DDR 2002 PC 1999 2000 (3-4-2) 2002 DRAM / OEM 2002 64Mb/128Mb/256Mb PC100/133MHz128Mb/256Mb DDR200/266/333MHz 128MB/256MB/512MB SDR DDR (Unbuffered DIMM/SoDIMM) (2000~2002 ) DRAM OEM 2002 70% OEM DRAM OEM DDR DRAM 6.3%DDR 18% DRAM 2003 8% 28% 2004 15% 76

2000 DRAM(0.20um 64Mb SDR 0.17um 128Mb SDR) DRAM (Specialty 0.20µm/16Mb SDR 64Mb DDR) (0.20um/ 4Mb 6T SRAM) 2001 2002 0.14/0.11um 128/256 SDR/DDR SDRAM 6T SRAM Pseudo SRAM ( 0.14/0.17um ) 0.17um Pseudo SRAM 6T SRAM (2002/Q4) (8) DRAM 2003 0.12 um 256M DDR 2004 (1) 0.11um 2003 Q3 256M DDR 512M DDRII 2004 1 0.11um 2004Q4 DDRII 10% (2) Hynix (0.10/0.90/0.75um) (3-4-3)2000 200mm 300mm DRAM (8) 2003 OEM 20% 60%2004 70% 2004 Q2 ( IBM Sony ) 25% DVD Player (2003) 60% ( 25% 28%) DRAM 5% 77

1 (PDA) MIC2002 12 PHS 2003 9 21 MIC 2003/08 (PHS) 2 DVD 2003 8 InStat/MDR 2003 3 21 3 (2003 4 )IC 2002 2003(f) 4 LCD IC 2003 12 29 ITIS 5 Flash Flash SST 0.11um NOR Flash NOR FLash 0.15 0.25um Psudo SRAM Cascade 4Mb/8Mb Legacy DRAM 64Mb 128Mb SDARM 6 DRAM 2003 6 26 DDR533 12 2003 6 26 7 1. NAND Flash 2003 11 19 2. DRAM NAND Flash 12 2003 11 19 3. DRAM DDRII DRAM 3 2003 12 15 4. 5% 78

2004 1 29 1. DRAM 60% 25% 2003 12 24 2. DRAM 2004 2 3 8 1999 2000 60.4 65.7 2003 DRAM DRAM DRAM DRAM (IP) DRAM 79