2012 5 29 3 Journal of Shanghai University Social Sciences May. 2012 Vol. 29 No. 3 doi 10. 3969 /j. issn 1007-6522. 2012. 03. 001 100007 14 2012-04-05 1955-1
2012 D912. 6 A 1007-6522 2012 03-0001-16 20022008 52. 55% 34. 36% 1 2002 1 608 1 2011 1. 92 2 10 11 2011 12 2011 2 14 1 679 3 31 15 2008 1 2008 2007 34. 66% 2008 34. 36% 2009 26. 13% 2010 22. 67% 1 19902010 % 1997 14. 18 21. 27 18. 03 1998 9. 05 20. 80-13. 91 1999 34. 69 27. 34 24. 79 2000 15. 95 9. 90 29. 12 2001 9. 24 9. 73 11. 29 2002 27. 42 22. 47 52. 55 2003 16. 03 9. 82 37. 22 2004 15. 72 12. 17 34. 83 2005 19. 61 15. 37 35. 83 2006 23. 88 21. 19 35. 83 2007 24. 16 21. 82 34. 66 2008 24. 33 23. 88 34. 36 2009 17. 97 20. 36 26. 13 2010 16. 78 18. 67 22. 67 2011 3137 1 2
3 2 2010 657. 4 23. 2-27. 5 405. 9 11. 3-30. 6 208. 8 5. 0-32. 9 168. 8 4. 8-35. 0 153. 0 3. 1-39. 7 146. 2 1. 8-43. 2 63. 7 0. 3-44. 5 49. 9-2. 8-50. 5 32. 9-4. 9-62. 1 31. 2-15. 1-117. 2 26. 0-26. 0-146. 5 2011 2011 31 4 5 6 1997 1997 26 1 1 1991 3
2012 3 88. 52% 78. 80% 60% 6. 26% 16. 95% 17. 20% 20. 05% 20. 29% 20. 74% 15. 63% 12% 0. 05% 0. 69% 2. 78% 3 2010 % 20. 05 71. 74 2. 78 82. 49 9. 31 1. 49 56. 45 12. 37 11. 41 52. 62 43. 29 90. 32 11. 02 65. 33 11. 13 6. 66 21. 54 17. 25 13. 02 51. 29 46. 46 62. 48 11. 21 60. 59 3. 59 8. 92 24. 17 15. 47 14. 56 8. 06 64. 42 46. 01 12. 46 61. 43 0. 99 5. 23 9. 95 7. 88 12. 18 5. 08 42. 23 63. 33 4. 17 94. 08 0. 09 5. 49 17. 53 32. 07 35. 97 18. 63 35. 45 80. 73 12. 95 84. 23 3. 77 6. 67 16. 79 23. 71 31. 04 25. 59 40. 64 85. 40 6. 28 113. 74 1. 90 4. 91 12. 37 21. 89 38. 82 35. 16 50. 99 75. 54 8. 14 109. 11 1. 09 13. 30 6. 64 46. 18 33. 13 49. 66 20. 29 173. 98 7. 83 174. 52 11. 94 9. 65 54. 67 48. 65 5. 28 0. 00 17. 20 81. 26 9. 58 80. 56 13. 04 3. 56 35. 42 23. 89 24. 77 11. 29 6. 26 40. 58 3. 59 42. 38 4. 88 2. 42 59. 80 11. 73 25. 47 13. 93 38. 87 56. 70 10. 61 94. 23 3. 07 31. 96 20. 69 23. 11 26. 75 11. 09 20. 74 68. 90 6. 74 89. 57 20. 93 2. 89 33. 09 6. 55 18. 49 14. 94 50. 35 62. 83 8. 54 65. 85 1. 38 0. 36 9. 82 2. 28 29. 90 3. 85 35. 24 36. 84 15. 63 37. 95 6. 56 3. 34 28. 11 10. 17 14. 46 14. 70 60. 66 47. 24 12. 04 32. 48 2. 54 6. 83 8. 46 23. 68 16. 30 10. 09 38. 55 87. 55 9. 45 106. 50 2. 44 5. 58 19. 20 33. 44 30. 36 5. 28 41. 90 96. 18 11. 09 103. 19 1. 45 4. 77 16. 17 8. 29 29. 40 5. 89 16. 95 40. 50 6. 34 34. 74 20. 94 1. 38 51. 23 7. 46 4. 54 8. 21 40. 07 55. 53 5. 21 71. 04 1. 73 5. 97 21. 78 21. 93 31. 21 48. 95 53. 87 66. 73 4. 21 89. 24 4. 57 0. 65 25. 71 3. 41 11. 63 12. 39 33. 14 60. 48 6. 49 90. 95 3. 56 8. 12 22. 93 17. 53 33. 88 69. 95 28. 35 95. 66 6. 69 122. 18 1. 20 2. 53 17. 04 16. 22 46. 72 47. 84 58. 14 61. 34 6. 98 70. 01 0. 63 2. 03 14. 93 3. 45 19. 32 7. 30 4
3 52. 05 70. 84 7. 18 41. 71 1. 04 7. 58 20. 57 21. 46 19. 16 10. 73 88. 52 63. 64 0. 69 0. 17 0. 00 0. 00 3. 27 0. 00 7. 53 0. 00 54. 86 58. 55 6. 45 99. 42 2. 09 2. 82 21. 15 14. 77 15. 45 8. 42 64. 01 57. 87 5. 81 72. 03 0. 12 6. 52 12. 37 22. 94 17. 68 7. 35 46. 04 91. 20 5. 68 186. 35 0. 14 0. 00 22. 60 1. 80 25. 55 3. 25 46. 00 42. 81 3. 76 75. 38 1. 48 7. 18 19. 88 13. 13 28. 88 56. 60 49. 41 61. 49 3. 06 93. 62 0. 82 12. 76 23. 29 17. 93 23. 43 11. 55 78. 80 73. 59 0. 05 21. 43 0. 01 0. 91 1. 16 11. 54 19. 98 39. 54 43. 24 69. 62 7. 27 80. 20 4. 33 5. 70 22. 77 16. 94 22. 38 20. 91 2 2010 1 1 2 14% 10% 1 5
2012 3 120% 100% 60% 20% 1 2010 % 2 2010 % 2011 39 6
3 3 % 2011 44 2011 42 A = / B = / 4 3 13. 46% 7
2012 24% 4 % 1998 2003 2008 15. 50 10. 88 14. 00 13. 46 20. 00 20. 00 14. 00 18. 00 20. 00 18. 00 #18. 00 18. 67 17. 80 19. 00 20. 00 18. 93 18. 00 20. 00 20. 00 19. 33 19. 00 20. 00 20. 00 19. 67 20. 00 20. 00 20. 00 20. 00 20. 00 20. 00 20. 00 20. 00 20. 00 20. 00 20. 00 20. 00 20. 00 20. 00 20. 00 20. 00 20. 00 20. 00 20. 00 20. 00 20. 00 20. 00 20. 00 20. 00 20. 00 20. 00 20. 00 20. 00 22. 50 19. 25 20. 00 20. 58 21. 00 21. 00 20. 00 20. 67 21. 00 21. 00 20. 00 20. 67 22. 50 20. 00 20. 00 20. 83 21. 50 21. 50 20. 00 21. 00 22. 00 21. 00 20. 00 21. 00 23. 00 20. 00 20. 00 21. 00 21. 00 21. 00 21. 00 21. 00 25. 00 24. 00 15. 00 21. 33 22. 00 22. 00 20. 00 21. 33 21. 00 25. 10 20. 00 22. 03 22. 50 22. 50 22. 00 22. 33 24. 50 24. 50 20. 00 23. 00 25. 00 25. 00 20. 00 23. 33 25. 00 25. 00 20. 00 23. 33 25. 50 25. 50 20. 00 23. 67 25. 00 25. 00 22. 00 24. 00 25. 00 25. 00 22. 00 24. 00 21. 00 21. 00 20. 00 20. 67 8
3 2011 2. 53 1. 58 7 1 2009 8 62. 5% 17% 20. 2% 20. 4% 69. 4% 59. 1% 1625 41. 6% 2630 20% 3140 22. 3% 4050 11. 9% 50 4. 2% 8. 8% 5. 2% 4. 2% 2008 9 2005 1. 47 4779 10 182 12 120 2009 2009 66 14 15 32 47% 4 9
2012 17 15 15 5 19982010 5 19982010 GDP% 1998 na na 24 0. 03 1999 na na 175 0. 20 2000 na na 338 0. 34 2001 na na 349 0. 31 2002 408. 2 na 408 0. 34 2003 474. 3 55. 7 530 0. 39 2004 522 92 614 0. 38 2005 522 92 651 0. 35 2006 774 197 971 0. 46 2007 1000 157 1157 0. 47 2008 na na 1437 0. 48 2009 na na 1646 0. 50 2010 1954-1954 0. 57 na na 10254 0. 40 19982001 10
3 2010 1 1. 54 2 /3 GDP 1998 GDP 0. 03% 2010 0. 57% 2010 2011 2% 3. 3% 5. 6% 45 2000 2012 1 2012 1991 33 1997 26 2005 38 1991 33 1 2012 2012 http / / news. sina. com. cn /c /2008-12-23 /140914924354s. shtml 11
2012 DB 2015 4 1564 9. 96 2025 9. 81 2035 9. 09 2045 8. 29 2055 7. 34 65 2015 1. 30 2030 2. 29 2045 3. 23 4 20002060 http / /esa. un. org 12
3 5 3 2010 A B 56% 40% 5 2011 2. 53 7 1 3 5 19982010 % 2011 2011 42 2011 43 A = / B = / 13
2012 DC 2001 2009 9 10-11 2000 2000 42 DB 2000 2010 1. 7 1. 54 3 32 1 20072008 2 NDC 8% 20% 1 2012 1 18 A05 2012 1 20 A04 2 2009 2 14
3 DC NDC 60 8% 8% 8% DC 1. 2002 EB/OL. 2005-12-14 2012-03-28 http / /www. mohrss. gov. cn/page. do pa =8a81f3f1314779a101314a86e7450406. 2. 2. 87 1. 92 EB /OL. 2012-01-20 2012-03-31 http / /www. china. com. cn /news /2012-01 /20 /content_24453470. htm. 3. 2011 R. 2011. 4. R. 2010. 6. J. 2011 32 1 19-24. 7. 2011 EB /OL. 2012-02-22 2012-03-25 http / /www. stats. gov. cn /tjgb /ndtjgb /qgndtjgb /t20120222_402786440. htm. 5. J. 2002 8 2 26-29 18. 8. 2009 EB /OL. 2010-03-19 2012-03-23 http / /www. stats. gov. cn /tjfx /fxbg /t20100319_402628281. htm. 9. 30 J. 2008 5 2-17. 10. N. 2009-12-23 A04. 11. 500 N. 2009-12-23 A05. 15
2012 On China' s Urban Employees' Basic Endowment Insurance Fund The Nature Causes and Solutions for the imbalance of revenue and expenditure of the fund in half of Chinese provinces ZHENG Bin-wen SUN Yong-yong Center for International Social Security Studies Chinese Academy of Social Sciences 100007 Beijing Abstract An anomaly in China' s Urban Employees' Basic Endowment Insurance System lies in the fact that in half of China' s provinces enterprises would be experiencing revenue-expenditure imbalance when financial subsidy is deducted from the basic endowment insurance fund despite ever greater payment power due to rapid fund increase. The great difference among provinces in financial situation can be explained in terms of historical liabilities system maintenance rate economic development level and spatial distribution of labor mobility. Overall planning of the fund at the national level would be the ultimate solution for this asymmetry in half of China' s provinces. It would help to cover current payment shortfall in 14 provinces because the shortfall can be " internalized" by the rapid increase and unprecedentedly strong payment power of the fund itself. However overall planning at the national level might entail moral hazard and adverse choice thus incurring major financial risks for the endowment insurance system. That is why planning at the county or city level remains the standard practice while provincial-level planning is implemented only in four to five provinces. Based on this understanding the imbalance in half of China's provinces can only be redressed with financial transfer payment which would result in steady increase of the insurance fund on the one hand and low investment return for the financial capital on the other due to the outmoded investment system and low rate of return. Therefore it is urgent to reform the investment system of the endowment insurance fund. Key words Reform of the Pension Fund Reform of the Urban Employees'Basic Endowment Insurance capital shortfall financial risks 16