2018 1 226 POPULATION & ECONOMICS No. 1 2018 Tot. No. 226 300071 C922 A 1000-4149 2018 01-0017 - 11 DOI 10. 3969 /j. issn. 1000-4149. 2018. 01. 002 The Permanent Migration Willingness Study of the Floating Population in Megacity in the Era of Points System for Household Registration LI Jingbo GAO Yuan YUAN Xin School of Economics Nankai University Tianjin 300071 China Abstract As a significant measure for the reform of household registration in megacity the purpose of points system for household registration is the population control in megacity. Take Tianjin as example the study found that legality of permanent migration are closely related to the personal characteristics family characteristics and socioeconomic characteristics while the personal characteristics play the principal role. While the main determinant of the factual permanent migration of the floating population is their socioeconomic characteristics. The points system for household registration is a threshold for the floating population who want to settle in megacity. The points system has no positive effect on controlling the size of the population instead it improves the willingness of the permanent migration. 2017-03 - 15 2017-09 - 07 2016 17
2018 1 Keywords points system for household registration floating population legality of permanent migration factuality of permanent migration 1. 02 2013 1 2 2015 1546. 95 2014 3 2013 9 5 2014 10500 2015 19999 2014 2015 476. 18 500. 35 0. 22% 0. 40% 4 1-4 5-6 1. 7-9 10 2009 2014 11 9 4 12 1 2 3 4 2013 6 26 http / /www. npc. gov. cn /npc /xinwen /jdgz /bgjy /2013-06 /27 /content _ 1798658. htm 2014 10 29 2014 51 http / /www. gov. cn /zhengce / content /2014-11 /20 /content_ 9225. htm 2014 2015 18
2. 13 7 14 15 16 17-18 6 10 19 20-21 22 3. 1. 2013 9 2012 2016 2012 3988 2016 5000 2. Logistic ln ( ) P 1-P = α + β i X i + u 1 P X i α β i u 19
2018 1 3. Goldstein Woon Yuen Fong 5 23-25 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 2 0 1 2 / 1 0 1 2 0 35 1 36 45 2 46 0 1 2 0 1 2 0 1 2 3 0 1 2 3 H 1 1 2 1 2 2016 35 35 20 36 45 10 0 2016 40 30 0 20
1 2012 H 2 / / H 3 2 % 2012 2016 2012 2016 50. 9 52. 3 5. 4 7. 5 1. 17. 7 26. 2 6. 9 5. 7 82. 3 73. 8 93. 1 94. 3 35. 0 35. 8 40. 7 41. 0 32. 3 32. 6 33. 3 29. 6 2016 32. 7 31. 7 25. 9 29. 4 2012 54. 0 57. 9 59. 7 53. 9 1. 4 39. 6 36. 4 34. 3 39. 4 6. 4 5. 7 6. 0 6. 7 2. 1 2 2012 2016 1 2016 10 5 0 21
2018 1 2. 2012 30 34 45 49 25 29 30 34 20 44 45 30 34 2 2 30 34 25 29 40 44 30 34 45 2 3. 2 22
8. 5% 1. 2% 1. 1 3 Ⅰ H 1 2 Ⅱ H 2 3 Ⅲ H 3 Ⅱ 23
2018 1 Ⅰ 3 Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅰ Ⅱ - 0. 537 ** - 0. 392-0. 958 0. 207 1. 994 ** 0. 995 46 Ⅲ 35 0. 165 0. 013-0. 069 0. 553 *** 0. 416 *** 0. 438 *** 36 45 0. 002-0. 117-0. 165 0. 469 *** 0. 370 *** 0. 280 ** - 0. 195 *** - 0. 114-0. 118-0. 422 *** - 0. 244 *** - 0. 296 *** 0. 822 *** 0. 743 *** 0. 617 ** 0. 400 0. 147-0. 187 0. 830 *** 0. 768 *** 0. 713 *** 0. 404 *** 0. 474 *** 0. 431 ** - 0. 649 *** - 0. 469 *** - 0. 486 *** - 1. 274 *** - 1. 074 *** - 1. 014 *** 0. 505 *** - 0. 226-0. 234 0. 292 *** - 0. 056-0. 170 0. 322-0. 344-0. 258-0. 128-0. 474 *** - 0. 476 *** - 0. 217 ** - 0. 222 ** - 0. 221 ** - 0. 311 *** - 0. 502 *** - 0. 487 *** - 0. 591 *** - 0. 679 *** - 0. 681 *** - 0. 616 *** - 0. 746 *** - 0. 679 *** 0. 387 *** 0. 349 ** 0. 427 *** 0. 635 *** 0. 474 *** 0. 514 *** 0. 270 ** 0. 213 0. 289 * 0. 441 *** 0. 368 *** 0. 387 ** 0. 142 *** 0. 097 *** 0. 091 *** 0. 083 *** 0. 047 *** 0. 054 *** 0. 635 1. 018-0. 044-0. 883-0. 883-0. 378-2. 218 *** - 3. 025 *** - 0. 554-0. 014-1. 365 * - 2. 040 * - 0. 023-0. 042-0. 051-0. 036 0. 583 *** 0. 626 *** 0. 265 ** 0. 264 ** 0. 538 0. 523 *** 0. 539 *** 0. 603 *** 0. 777 0. 678 ** - 0. 050-0. 080 0. 059-0. 010-0. 056-0. 085 0. 905 * 0. 224 1. 129 ** 0. 329 1. 182 ** 0. 237-0. 057 0. 181 ** 0. 346 *** 0. 548 *** * ** *** 10% 5% 1% 45 2. 24
1 Ⅰ 1 2016 4614 / 35 2 29. 6% 1. 1 2 3 1 25
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