2012 /2 Wikileaks false gentleman Deputy Secretary Steinberg's September conversation with State Councilor Dai

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1 Yan Xuetong The Instability of China-US Relations The Chinese Journal of International Politics Vol. 3 No pp / Quarterly Journal of International Politics 107

2 2012 /2 Wikileaks false gentleman Deputy Secretary Steinberg's September conversation with State Councilor Dai Bingguo October http / / /cable /2009 /10 /09BEIJING2965. html. 2 Bill Gertz Inside the Ring The Washington Times October http / /www. washingtontimes. com /news /2010 /oct /20 /inside - the - ring /. 108

145. 96 /cable /2009 /10 /09BEIJING2965. html.

3 David Bell Disappointment in Decision Making under Uncertainty Operations Research Vol. 33 No pp Cristiano Castelfranchi and Emiliano Lorini Cognitive Anatomy and Functions of Expectations in Proceedings of IJCAI'03 Workshop on Cognitive Modelling of Agents and Multi-Agent Interactions Acapulco Mexico August

2 Cristiano Castelfranchi and Emiliano Lorini Cognitive Anatomy and Functions of

4 2012 / David Bell Disappointment in Decision Making under Uncertainty p Gerben Van Kleef Carsten De Dreu and Antony Manstead Supplication and Appeasement in Conflict and Negotiation The Interpersonal Effects of Disappointment Worry Guilt and Regret Journal of Personality and Social Psychology Vol. 91 No pp Roger Bougie Rik Pieters and Marcel Zeelenberg Angry Customers Don't Come Back They Get Back The Experience and Behavioural Implications of Anger and Dissatisfaction in Services Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science Vol. 31 No pp

David Bell Disappointment in Decision Making under Uncertainty p. 1.

6 2012 / Scott Kennedy The Myth of the Beijing Consensus Journal of Contemporary China Vol. 19 No pp Shirley Kan U. S. - China Counterterrorism Cooperation Issues for U. S. Policy Congressional Research Service July

461-477 2 Shirley Kan U. S. - China Counterterrorism Cooperation Issues for U.

7 Deputy Secretary Steinberg's 29 September 2009 Conversation with State Councilor Dai Bingguo. 2 1 G Yao Yunzhu A Chinese Perspective on the Nuclear Posture Review Proliferation Analysis May http / /www. carnegieendowment. org /publications /index. cfm fa = view&id = Michael S. Chase The U. S. - China Strategic Security Relationship and the Nuclear Posture Review Report China Brief Vol. 10 No http / /www. jamestown. org /programs /chinabrief /single / tx _ news = 36325&tx_ ttnews backpid = 25&cHash = 685ebb22d5 ttnews tt _ 113

carnegieendowment. org /publications /index. cfm fa = view&id = 40758 Michael S.

8 2012 / http / / /cable /2009 /10 /09BEIJING2963. html 2 Yan Xuetong The Instability of China - US Relations p Michael Swaine China's Assertive Behaviour Part One On Core Interests China Leadership Monitor No Yan Xuetong The Instability of China - US Relations p

html 2 Yan Xuetong The Instability of China - US Relations p. 20.

9 1 1 / 1 1 Yan Xuetong The Instability of China - US Relations p

10 2012 / Yan Xuetong The Instability of China - Us Relation p

11 Scott D. Sagan and Kenneth N. Waltz The Spread of Nuclear Weapons A Debate New York Norton 1995 Kenneth N. Waltz The Spread of Nuclear Weapons More May Be Better The Adelphi Papers No. 171 London International Institute for Strategic Studies Alan Wachman Why Taiwan Geostrategic Rationales for China's Territorial Integrity Stanford Stanford University Press

Waltz The Spread of Nuclear Weapons More May Be Better The Adelphi Papers No.

12 2012 / January Yan Xuetong The Instability of China - US Relations pp John Pomfret U. S. - China Relations to Face Strains Experts Say Washington Post crude 2010 serious http / /www. fmprc. gov. cn /chn /pds /gjhdq /gj /bmz /1206 _ 22 /fyrygth / t htm http / /www. fmprc. gov. cn /chn /gxh /tyb /fyrbt /t htm

- China Relations to Face Strains Experts Say Washington Post 3 2010 2007 2007 crude 2010 serious 2007 2010

13 X Yan Xuetong et al Quantitative Predictions of Sino-foreign Relations p

14 2012 / Yan Xuetong The Instability of China - US Relations p

15 1 GDP 2 1 Steve Chan China the U. S. and the Power Transition Theory London Routledge 2008 Sheena Chestnut and Alastair Iain Johnston Is China Rising in Eva Paus Penelope Prime and Jon Western eds. Is China Changing the Rules of the Game New York Palgrave MacMillan Tang Shiping The Security Dilemma A Conceptual Analysis Security Studies Vol. 18 No pp Steve Chan China the U. S. and the Power Transition Theory Michael Colaresi Karen Rasler and William Thompson Strategic Rivalries in World Politics Position Space and Conflict Escalation Cambridge Cambridge University Press 2008 Paul Francis Diehl The Dynamics of Enduring Rivalries Urbana University of Illinois Press

16 2012 / % 57% p. 6. Yan Xuetong The Instability of China - US Relations p. 21. US Exports to China by State Washington D. C. US China Business Council 4 A Near-Consensus Decision Keeps U. N. Climate Process Alive and Moving Ahead New York Times December http / /www. nytimes. com /cwire /2010 /12 /13 /13climatewire - a - near - consensus - decision - keeps - un - climate - p html Jennifer Morgan and Deborah Seligsohn What Cancun Means for China and the U. S The Network for Climate and Energy Information December http / /www. chinafaqs. org /blog - posts /what - cancun - means - china - and - us. 122

com /cwire /2010 /12 /13 /13climatewire - a - near - consensus - decision - keeps - un - climate - p - 77618.

17 Yao Yunzhu A Chinese Perspective on the Nuclear Posture Review /

18 2012 /2 anti-access /area-denial 1996 Franklyn Griffiths 1 2 Beijing Area Study realpolitik 3 1 Franklyn Griffiths Limits of the Tabular View of Negotiation International Journal No. 35 No /1980 p http / /www. china. com. cn /international /txt / /28 /content _ htm out-group Edward Mansfield and Diana Mutz Support for Free Trade Self-Interest Sociotropic Politics and Out-Group Anxiety International Organization Vol. 63 No pp Donald Kinder and Cindy Kam Us Against Them Ethnocentric Foundations of American Opinion Chicago University of Chicago Press 2010 David Rousseau and Rocio Garcia- Retamero Identity Power and Threat Perception A Cross-National Experimental Study Journal of Conflict Resolution Vol. 51 No pp Paul Sniderman et al Predisposing Factors and Situational Triggers Exclusionary Reactions to Immigrant Minorities American Political Science Review Vol. 98 No pp

htm 2010 12 23 3 out-group Edward Mansfield and Diana Mutz Support for Free Trade Self-Interest Sociotropic Politics and Out-Group Anxiety International Organization Vol. 63 No. 3 2009 pp.

19 3 * * Charles Osgood George Suci and Percy Tannenbaum The Measurement of Meaning Urbana University of Illinois Press assertive 1 1 Naazneen Barma and Ely Ratner China's Illiberal Challenge Democracy A Journal of Ideas Vol. 1 No pp Naazneen Barma Giacomo Chiozza Ely Ratner and Steven Weber A World Without the West Empirical Patterns and Theoretical Implications The Chinese Journal of International Politics Vol. 2 No pp Stephan Halper The Beijing Consensus How China's Authoritarian Model Will Dominate the Twenty-First Century New York Basic Books

56-68 Naazneen Barma Giacomo Chiozza Ely Ratner and Steven Weber A World Without the West Empirical Patterns and Theoretical Implications The Chinese Journal of

20 2012 /2 1 hedging Elizabeth Economy The Game Changer Foreign Affairs Vol. 89 No p

21 1 2 congagement 3 Office of Net Assessment Airsea Battle G. John Ikenberry and Anne-Marie Slaughter Co-Directors Forging a World of Liberty Under Law U. S. National Security in the 21st Century The Princeton Project on National Security 2006 pp John McCain Remarks Hoover Institution May http / /media. hoover. org / documents/ McCain_ pdf. One America analyst at the Communist Party University has argued that this idea has not died and may feature more prominently in US foreign policy in the near future Zalmay Khalilzad et al. The United States and a Rising China Strategic and Military Implications MR AF http / /www. army. mil / - news /2009 /05 /05 / dod - undersecretary - army - may - be - asked - to - prevent - war /index. html 4 See Jan Van Tol et al AirSea Battle A Point-of-Departure Operational Concept Centre for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments Washington D. C. Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments

22 2012 / Lexisnexis 1 Kevin Wallsten Agenda Setting and the Blogosphere An Analysis of the Relationship between Mainstream Media and Political Blogs Review of Policy Research Vol. 24 No pp http / /www. thewashingtonnote. com / 128

23 http / /mil. huanqiu. com /Observation / / html 2 3 Michael Swaine China's Assertive Behaviour. http / /news. sohu. com / / n shtml http / /news. ifeng. com / mainland / detail_ 2010_ 07 /01 / _ 0. shtml http / /www. mfa. gov. cn /chn /gxh / tyb /fyrbt /jzhsl /t htm 129

24 2012 / http / /www. fmprc. gov. cn /chn /gxh / tyb /fybt /jzhsp /t htm 130

25 1 2 1 Cui Liru Sino - US Relations in a New Era pp The US returning to Asia Posture Influence and China's Countermeasures p

26 2012 / Alastain Iain Johnston Beijing's Security Behavior in the Asian Pacific Is China a Dissatisfied Power in Allen Carlson Peter Katzenstein and J. J. Suh eds. Rethinking Security in East Asia Identity Power and Efficiency Stamford Stmford University Press

27 sina. com 2002 nankai. edu. cn 2008 cass. org. cn yyir@ 163. com Alastair Iain Johnston Cultural Realism Strategic Culture and Grand Strategy in Chinese History Social States China in International Institutions johnston@ fas. harvard. edu William Callahan China The Pessoptimist Nation Cultural Governance and Resistance in Pacific Asia Contingent States Greater China and Transnational Relations callahan@ manchester. ac. uk - Linsay Cunningham-Cross linsaydc@ aol. com Ⅱ

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