1302 ( ) 8,,,,?,,,,,,,, :?,?,,?,??, :,, 1,,, 1980, ( ), 1982, 65,,,,, , ; ;,,, Jones and Olken (2005) , Jones and Olk2 en (2005)
|
|
|
- 坂曰 乔
- 7 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 ( ) China Econo mic Quarterly Vol18, No14 J uly, ,,,,,, , ; ;,,,, 30,,, (2005),,, (2007), (2007),, U, (2008) 3, ;, :, 135, ; E2mail sysu. edu. cn ( ) (08J C790103) (08JJD820170) (07JDTDXM79006) 2008,
2 1302 ( ) 8,,,,?,,,,,,,, :?,?,,?,??, :,, 1,,, 1980, ( ), 1982, 65,,,,, , ; ;,,, Jones and Olken (2005) , Jones and Olk2 en (2005), :, 1, Jones and Olken (2005), , 57,, (t he reversal in economic growt h)
3 4 : 1303 Jones and Olken (2005) Jones and Olken (2005), ;,, Jones and Olken (2005), ;,,,, : ; ; ; ( ), : ;,, (Qian and Weingast, 1997) (2008),,, (2004, 2007) ; ( 2005, 2007) ; ( 2005, 2007, 2008),,,,,,,, 2,,,,,,,, 2 Li and Zhou (2005),,, 10
4 1304 ( ) 8,,,,, 3, (2007) ; (2008),,,, ( Zhuravskaya, 2000 ; Bardhan, 2006),, ( Zhuravskaya, 2000 ; Blanchard and Shleifer, 2001), (2004),,,,,, (, 2005), ( ),,, (2007) (2008),,,,, (2007), 1, (2007) U,, (2007) (2008),, (2008),,, 3,,
5 4 : 1305,, 4,,,, ( ), ;,,,,,,, :,,,, 5,, 59,,,,,,,,,, 6, 65,,,, 4,, (2008), 5 6,,,
6 1306 ( ) 8,,, 7,, : (1) ; (2) ; (3),,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 8,,,,, 9,, 10,,,, :, ,59 %,41 % (,2008) 8,,, 9 Besley and Ghatak (2005),,, (mission), (productivity),, 10 (2005), ;,,
7 4 : 1307,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, Kramer (1971) ; Nordhaus (1975) ;, Hibbs (1977, 1987),, ; Frey and Schneider (1978), 20 80,,, (Alesina, 1987, 1988 ; Rogoff and Sibert, 1988 ; Rogoff, 1990),,,, Tao (2003), 1987, ; (2006) , (2007),,,, 1,,,,
8 1308 ( ) 8,,,,,,,,, (2007) (2008),,,, U, (2003), ( ) ,,, 1, , 385, 13175, 28, 1985 ; 3, 1984, 80,, 1, , 2,, 18,, 7,, 9,, 3 ; 11,
9 4 : 1309, 11,, , GDP , GDP , (2006, 2007) ,, GDP,,, 3 29, ; - 3, , 17,, 015 3
10 1310 ( ) 8 ( ), git = chanit + 2log ( y it - 1 ) + 3 log ( nit + it + it ) + 4 log (invit ) + i + t + it. (1) (1), git GDP, chanit, 1, 0 ; yit - 1 nit it it invit, GDP 12 ; i t, :,, (1),,, (1) Mankiw (1992),,, it + it = 0110,,, 1, 1, ( ) 1 (1) 1 1,, 1 = , 5 %,,, 014 3, 12,,,
11 4 : 1311 chan log ( y ( - 1) ) log ( n + + ) log (inv) log (inv( - 1) ) resid 1 (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (90. 50) ( ) OL S (5. 90) ( ) ( ) (5. 10) ( ) ( ) ( ) (0. 10) 2SL S (5. 40) ( ) ( ) ( ) (2. 10) (5. 23) ( ) ( ) ( ) (2. 41) OL S OL S 2SL S OL S (5. 08) ( ) ( ) ( ) (2. 46) (1. 36) (7. 70) ( ) ( ) (0. 70) (5. 00) (7. 16) ( ) ( ) ( ) (3. 37) (3. 90) ( ) ( ) ( ) (4. 17) (1. 09) adj2r D2W : (1) 5 8 tenure_ sz, tenure_ sj, age_ sz, age_ sj, log ( y ( - 1) ), log ( n), log(inv( - 1) ) ; (2) t ; g 1 % 5 % 10 % 15 % 2 4,, 1,,, 01 4, 5 %log ( y) log ( n + 011) log (inv), 1 1 4,, ( ),,?,,,,,
12 1312 ( ) 8 probit, (), 1,, 0 probit, probit,, 10 %,,,,,,, probit pro (chan) = ( ) (1. 21) (5. 70) tenure _ sz tenure _ sj (2. 71) age _ sz age _ sj. z, Log _ likelihood (3. 13) , 736, 1 261, (1) 1 5, chan,, 10 % 2SL S,, nr 2 = 4187, 2 q,, 13, Hausman, probit,,, OL S 1 6, 20 %,, chan,, 10 % 13 5 %
13 4 : 1313,, 1, ,, 1986, , 1 7, 1-015, 1 % , (1) 8, chan,, 10 %,,,,,,, 2 1 (1),,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
14 1314 ( ) 8,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 1,, (1),, 1, 0, 1 14 chan log( y( - 1) ) 2,, log( n + + ) log(inv( - 1) ) (1) (5. 30) ( ) ( ) ( ) (2. 10) (2) 2 : (3) (4) (5. 3) g (1. 7) ( ) ( ) (2. 0) (5. 2) (2. 6) ( ) ( ) (2. 0) (5. 3) ( ) ( ) ( ) (2. 1) (5) (5. 3) ( ) ( ) ( ) (2. 1) (6) (5. 3) g (1. 5) ( ) ( ) (2. 0) (7) (5. 4) g ( ) ( ) ( ) (2. 1) adj2r D2W F :t ; g 1 % 5 % 10 % 15 %;FE2OL S 14, 1,0, 0
15 4 : , ;, 1 016,, 5 %;, 1 = 014,,, 1, 0, 1 013,, ;, 1 014,,, 1,,,,,, 1,, ,, (2007) (2008), U,, 4, 4,, 3 3 U, U,, ( ) 4 3 chan _ east chan _ noneast, chan _ timea chan _ timeb
16 1316 ( ) 8 chan_east chan_noneast chan_zhixia chan_ nonzhixia chan_timea chan_timeb log( y ( - 1) ) log( n + + ) log(inv( - 1) ) (1) OL S (7. 27) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) (2. 27) (2) 2SL S (5. 24) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) (2. 41) 3 (3) 2SL S (4. 66) ( ) (0. 45) ( ) ( ) (2. 13) (4) OL S (7. 81) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) (2. 299) (5) 2SL S (5. 43) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) (2. 47) (6) OL S (7. 84) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) (2. 29) (7) 2SL S (4. 82) (0. 55) ( ) ( ) ( ) (2. 53) adj2r D2W : (1) 2 east tenure_sz, east tenure_sj, east age_sz,east age_sj, noneast tenure_sz, noneast tenure_ sj, noneast age_ sz, noneast age _ sj, log ( y ( - 1) ), log ( n), log (inv( - 1) ) ; 3 east age_ sz, east age_ sj, noneast age_ sz, noneast age_ sj, log ( y ( - 1) ), log ( n) log(inv( - 1) ) ; 5 age_sz nonzhixiashi, age_sj nonzhixi2 ashi, zhixiashi age_sz, zhixiashi age_sj, tenure_sz nonzhixiashi, tenure_sj nonzhixiashi, zhixiashi tenure_sz, zhixiashi tenure_sj, log ( y ( - 1) ), log ( n), log (inv ( - 1) ) ; 7 time_a tenure_sz, time_a tenure_sj, time_a age_sz, time_a age_sj, time_b tenure_sz, time_b tenure_sj, time_b age_sz, time_b age_sj, log ( y ( - 1) ), log ( n),log (inv( - 1) ) (2) t ; g 1 % 5 % 10 % 15 %,, 3 1, , , 1 % ,,,, 1, 3 2 3
17 4 : 1317, 2, 3, 15,, OL S,,,,,,, Jones and Olken (2005),, 3 OL S, chan _ timea , ; chan _ timeb - 014, 5 % 3 7 chan _ timea, ; chan _ timeb - 212, 5 %, OL S, 90,, ( ),,, 1,, 1, chan _ not more 1, 0 ; 1, chan _ more 1, , chan _ notmore,, chan _ more, 1, 1 % 15,,
18 1318 ( ) 8, 2SL S,,, 4 2 3,, chan _ notmore 4 (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) chan_not more chan_more chan_bot h chan_double chan_single log( y ( - 1) ) log( n + + ) log(inv( - 1) ) OLS 2SL S 2SL S OL S 2SLS (7. 87) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) (2. 22) (4. 54) (0. 73) ( ) ( ) ( ) (1. 81) (4. 60) (0. 63) ( ) ( ) ( ) (1. 83) (7. 86) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) (2. 21) (4. 30) ( ) (0. 36) (0. 54) ( ) ( ) (1. 81) OLS (3. 96) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) (4. 17) 2SL S (4. 92) ( ) ( ) (0. 98) ( ) (0. 42) (1. 72) adj2r D2W : (1) 2 tenure_sz, tenure_sj, age_sz,age_sj,tenure_sz tenure_sj, age_sz age_sj,age_ sj tenure_ sz,age_ sz tenure_ sj,age_ sz tenure_ sz, age _ sj tenure _ sj,log ( y ( - 1) ), log ( n),log (inv( - 1) ) ; 3 tenure_sz,tenure_sj,age_sz,age_sj,tenure_sz tenure _sj,age_sz age_sj,age_sj tenure_sz,age_sz tenure_sj,log ( y ( - 1) ),log ( n),log (inv( - 1) ) ; 5 tenure_ sz,tenure_ sj,age_ sz,age_ sj,tenure_ sz tenure_ sj,age_ sz age_ sj,age_ sj tenure_sz,age _ sz tenure _ sj, age _ sz tenure _ sz, age _ sj tenure _ sj, log ( y ( - 1) ), log ( n), log (inv( - 1) ) ; 7 tenure_sz,tenure_sj,age_sz,age_sj,tenure_sz tenure_sj,age_sz age_ sj, age _ sj tenure _ sz, age _ sz tenure _ sj, age _ sz tenure _ sz, age _ sj tenure _ sj, log ( y ( - 1) ),log( n),log(inv( - 1) ) (2) t ; g 1 % 5 % 10 % 15 %
19 4 : 1319,, chan _ more, 10 %, 3,,,,, 16, 0 1 chan _ double chan _ bot h, chan _ single OL S, chan _ single,, chan _ bot h chan _ double 1 %, 1 5, 2, chan _ single chan _ double,, chan _ bot h 1 %, 3, ,, chan _ double,,,,,,,,,,, ( ),,,, 61, () chan _ gounder61 1, 0 ; 61 65, chan _ go6165 1, 0 ; 65, chan _ goup65 1, OL S, 16,, 1
20 1320 ( ) 8 chan_gounder61 chan_go6165 chan_goup65 chan_comeunder61 chan_come6165 chan_comeup65 log ( y ( - 1) ) log ( n + + ) log (inv( - 1) ) 5 (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) OL S (4. 77) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) (2. 15) 2SL S (4. 44) ( ) (0. 02) ( ) ( ) ( ) (2. 05) OL S (5. 55) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) (3. 24) 2SL S (5. 66) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) (3. 20) OL S (4. 54) ( ) g ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) (1. 92) 2SL S (4. 11) ( ) ( ) g ( ) ( ) ( ) (0. 32) OL S (5. 59) g ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) (3. 13) 2SL S (5. 56) g ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) (3. 16) adj2r D2W : (1) 2 4 tenure_sz ageunder60_sz, tenure_sj ageunder60_sj,age_sz age2 under60_sz,age_sj ageunder60_sj,tenure_sz age6165_sz,tenure_sj age6165_sj,age_sz age6165_sz, age_sj age6165_sj,tenure_ sz ageup65_ sz,tenure_ sj ageup65_ sj,age_ sz ageup65_ sz,age_ sj age2 up65_sj,log ( y ( - 1) ),log( n),log(inv( - 1) ) ; 6 tenure_sz ageunder60_sz,ten2 ure_sj ageunder60_sj,age_sz ageunder60_sz,age_sj ageunder60_sj,tenure_sz age6165_sz,tenure_sj age6165_sj,age_sz age6165_sz,age_sj age6165_sj,tenure_sz ageup65_sz,tenure_sj ageup65_sj, age_sz ageup65_sz,age_sj ageup65_sj, log ( y ( - 1) ),log ( n),log (inv ( - 1) ) ; 8 tenure_sz ageunder60_sz,tenure_sj ageunder60_sj,age_sz ageunder60_sz,age_sj ageunder60_sj, tenure_sz age6165_sz,tenure_sj age6165_sj,age_sz age6165_sz,age_sj age6165_sj,log ( y ( - 1) ), log ( n), log (inv( - 1) ) (2) t ; g 1 % 5 % 10 % 15 %, chan _ goup65 5 %, 1 2,, chan _ goup65 5 % , OL S , 2SL S,, chan _ goup65
21 4 : 1321,, 61, () chan _ comeunder61 1, 0 ; 61 65, chan _ come6165 1, 0 ; 65, chan _ comeup65 1, 0 5 OL S,, 10 %, chan _ comeunder61, chan _ come6165, chan _ comeup65 2SL S, chan _ comeup65 15 %, , 65, OL S chan _ come , 1 %, chan _ comeunder61,, 2SL S, chan _ come6165 chan _ comeunder61 17,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, ( ) H P ;, 17 8,,,,,
22 1322 ( ) 8 6, 6 1 4,,, - 014, 5 %;, 20 %,, 6? (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) OL S 2SL S OL S 2SL S (2. 488) (1. 69) (3. 30) (2. 19) OL S 2SL S OL S 2SL S (365) (60. 29) (8. 73) (8. 53) chan log ( y ( - 1) ) log ( n + + ) log (inv( - 1) ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) (0. 885) g ( ) ( ) ( ) (1. 080) (0. 275) g (1. 468) (0. 04) (0. 833) ( ) ( ) (4. 47) ( ) ( ) (4. 46) adj2r D2W : (1) 2 age_sj, age_sz,tenure_sj, tenure_sz ; 4 age_sj,age_ sz,tenure_sj, tenure_sz,log( y ( - 1) ),log ( n ),log (in ( - 1) ) ; 6 age_sj,age_sze,,,, ; 8 age_sj,age_sz, log ( y ( - 1) ),log ( n ),log (inv ( - 1) ),,,, (2) t ; g 1 % 5 % 10 % 15 %, 6 5 8,,,,,, ,,
23 4 : 1323 ( ),,, , dependi = 0 + 1f reqi + 2 log (ryi) + 3 east i + 4 middle i + i. (2) (2), freq log (ry) east middle, 1978, ; depend, , ave _ g ; , , se _ g ; bianyi _ g ; HP,, se _ vol (2), 1 :,, ;,,, ; 1, (2), 7 1, 1 = ,,, , ,, 7 2 4,, 1, 5 %1 %, ,,, 1, ,, ,,
24 1324 ( ) 8 7 : (1) (2) (3) (4) ave_g se_g bianyi_g se_vol (8. 2) 2. 6 (1. 0) ( ) 3. 1 (1. 2) freq ( ) (2. 0) (2. 9) (2. 1) log(ry) ( ) ( ) (1. 0) ( ) east (5. 8) ( ) ( ) (0. 1) middle 0. 4 (0. 8) ( ) ( ) ( ) adj2r D2W : t ; % 5 % 10 %, 18,, : ,,,, Jones and Olken ( 2005) Jones and Olken (2005), Jones and Olken (2005),,,,,, 18,,
25 4 : 1325,,,, Jones and Olken (2005) ,,, ,,, ; ;,,,, Jones and Olken (2005),,,,,, ,,, [ 1 ] Alesina, A., Macroeconomic Policy in a Two2Party System as a Repeated Game, Quarterl y J ournal of Economics, 1987, 102 (3), [ 2 ] Alesina, A., Macroeconomics and Politics, in Fischer, S. (ed. ) N B ER M acroeconomics A nnual Cambridge, MA : The MIT Press, 1988, [ 3 ] Bardhan, P., Awakening Giant s, Feet of Clay : a Comparative Assessment of t he Rise of China and India, Paper presented at International Conference on t he Dragon and t he Elephant : China and Indiaπs Economic Reforms, 2006 J uly 1 2, Shanghai, China. [ 4 ] Besley, T., and M. Ghatak, Competition and Incentives wit h Motivated Agent s, A merican Eco2 nomic Review, 2005, 95 (3),
26 1326 ( ) 8 [ 5 ] Blanchard, O., and A. Shleifer, Federalism wit h and wit hout Political Centralization : China vs. Russia in Transitional Economics : How Much Progress? I M F S taf f Papers, 2001, 48 (4), [ 6 ] Frey, B., and F. Schneider, An Empirical Study of Politico2Economic Interaction in t he United States, Review of Economics and S tatistics, 1978, 60 (2), [ 7 ] Hibbs, D., Political Parties and Macroeconomic Policy, A merican Political Science Review, 1977, 71 (4), [ 8 ] Hibbs, D., The A merican Political Economy : M acroeconomics and Electoral Politics. Cam2 bridge : Harvard University Press, [ 9 ] Jones, B. and B. Olken, Do Leaders Matter? National Leadership and Growt h since World War II, Quarterl y J ournal of Economics, 2005, 120 (3), [ 10 ] Kramer, G., Short2term Fluct uations in U. S. Voting Behavior, , A merican Politi2 cal S cience Review, 1971, 65 (1), [ 11 ] Li, H., and L. Zhou, Political Turnover and Economic Performance : The Incentive Role of Per2 sonel Control in China, J ournal of Public Economics, 2005, 89 (9 10), [ 12 ],:,,2007 5, [ 13 ] Mankiw, N., D. Romer, and D. Weil, A Contribution to t he Empirics of Economic Growt h, Quarterl y J ournal of Economics, 1992, 107 (2), [ 14 ] Nordhaus, W., The Political Business Cycle, Review of Economic S tudies, 1975, 42 (2), [ 15 ],,,2008 3, [ 16 ] Qian, Y., and B. Weingast, Federalism as a Commit ment to Preserving Market Incentives, J ournal of Economic Perspectives, 1997, 11 (4), [ 17 ] Rogoff, K., Equilibrium Political Budget Cycles, A merican Economic Review, 1990, 80 ( 1), [ 18 ] Rogoff, K., and A. Sibert, Equilibrium Political Business Cycles, Review of Economic S tudies, 1988, 55 (1), [ 19 ] Tao, Y., Rationalization of Political Business Cycle in China, Presented in the International Con2 ference on The Rise of China Revisited : Perception and Reality, Institute of International Rela2 tions, National Chengchi University, December 11 12, [ 20 ],,,2008 3, [ 21 ],, ( ), , [ 22 ],,,2005 8, 3 15
27 4 : 1327 [ 23 ],, (), , [ 24 ],,2008, [ 25 ],,,2007 9, [ 26 ],,,2008 3, [ 27 ], :,,2005 4, [ 28 ],,, , [ 29 ],?, (), , [ 30 ],,,2004 6, [ 31 ], :,, , [ 32 ],,,2007 7, [ 33 ] Zhuravskaya, E., Incentives to Provide Local Public Goods : Fiscal Federalism, Russian Style, J ournal of Public Economics, 2000, 76 (3), Provincial Governorsπ Turnovers and Economic Growth : Evidence from China XIANBIN WAN G XIAN XIAN G XU XUN L I ( S un Yat2sen U ni versit y ) Abstract Chinaπs special personnel system, combined with its fiscal system, provides provincial governors powerf ul incentives to promote local economic growth. Using panel data with governor2province matches in the period , we find that the turnover of local
28 1328 ( ) 8 governors result s in fluctuations in the local economy, and remarkably slows economic growth in the year of a turnover. The degree of slowdown depends on several factors, such as the f requency of turnovers and the ages of related governors. mostly for short2term and do not affect long2run growth trends. JEL Classif ication O17, R58, H11 However, the negative effect s are
untitled
1978 2005 1 2005 TFP 2002 2003 2004 2005 2005 2006 Jian et al 1996 Fujita et al 2001 Démurger 2002 Zhang et al 2003 Bertrand Schoar(2003) CEO 1942 20 90 1990 1994 1999 2006 8 6 1 1 1999 4 22 1 2 1978-2005
:, ;,, Li Zhou (2005), Huang(2002) 1978,, ( GDP, FDI ),, ( ) ( ),,, (,, ),,,,, (,,1999),,????? :,,,,80, 1982 ( ),, 65, 80, 1982,Shleifer (19
3 :1978, 1978 2004 ( ) ( ) ( ),,, U,, ( ), :, (governance) (, La Porta et al, 1999) 20 90, ( Barro,1990) Li (1998) Shleifer (1997),, ( ) ( ) ( Qian and Weingast,1997) (,2007), GDP,,,,Blanchard Shleifer
World Bank World Bank 2000 Li Dong Torgler a 2010b 3 Huang 2002 GDP Blanchard Shleifer 2000 capture
20 90 1998 ~ 2009 U Li 1998 Xu 2010 Qian Weingast 1996 Qian Roland 1998 GDP 2007 401120 cgcqu@ 126. com lishu575@ hotmail. com 2010QNJJ08 - XZQN24 2 120 1 2007 2007 2008 30 World Bank 1997 2 World Bank
GDP % See Jin Hehui Qian Yingyi B. R. Weingast Regional Decentralization and Fiscal incentiv
Peking University Law Journal Vol. 24 No. 4 2012 pp. 782-799 20 * 20 1 1908 2 1949 1978 * 1 5 1977 275 2 10 2009 1 782 09CFX002 83 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1978 GDP 20 90 1993 3 2003 219 4 90% 5 1996 325 6 See Jin
2008 5,,,,,,,,,, (,2002),,,?,,,,,, 1994 : 1994,, ( GDP ),, (,2004),,,,,,, highly decentralized,, decentralization, ( ),,,, fiscal decentralization (re
: 3 :,10, 1994 2003,,,, :,,,,, (World Bank, 2002 ;,2002) 2000, 4290, 988, 3292,, 100,,,,,, (, 2002),,,,,, 3,,:100101,:tao. ccap @igsnrr. ac. cn ;, (70633002) ( KSCX22YW2N2039),,, 20 90,1995 2003 157 219,,
572 ( ) 9 (1997),,,,,, (, 1997),, (, 1998), (, 2006),,,,,,,, (, 1997),, ( Naughton, 1994) (Lipton and Sachs, 1990 ;, 2004 ; ),,, (, 1997) (1998),,,,,,
9 2 2010 1 ( ) China Econo mic Quarterly Vol19, No12 J anuary, 2010 3,,, 2 451,,,,,,,, ( ),, (, 2005), 1 (, 1996a), (, 2004), : W + q, W, ( ), q,, : ( ),,, 3 :,, 510632 ; E2mail :zqx831118 @163. com, (08J
1994 ~ % % 49% 2 GDP 1 2 Rawski GDP 1978 GDP 1978 =
GDP GDP 1 0. 089 GDP 30 2008 Hsieh and Klenow 2009 600 200433 lm@ fudan. edu. cn ouyanghanchu@ yahoo. com. cn 10YJA790126 71133004 B101 YES 12 3 1994 ~ 2010 9. 9% 1 1 90 1994 16 1994 0. 32 0. 51 15 0.
510 ( ) 7 (2002) 20 90,, ( Young, 1993),,,, (2003),,,,,,,,,,, ( ),,,,, (2001),,,,, (2004),,, ( ) (2003), ( ), (2003),,, ( 2002) (2003) (2000),,,,,,,
7 2 2008 1 ( ) China Econo mic Quarterly Vol17, No12 J anuary, 2008 : 1978 2005 3,, : (1),, ; (2) ; (3),,,, (dynamic efficiency),, ( Abel, et al., 1989),,,, ( Weil, 1987), ( Tirole, 1985 ;, 2001), (2002)
(),,,,;, , (Π, ), , , 5162 %, U , ,,1992, , : ;
: 3 :,,,,,, : : 1992 6,,1992 2003, 8156 %,,: (1) ; (2) () ; (3),, (1994) (2004) 267, (2004), (2005) (2005),1992 2002,,,,,, :, ;; 3,, : gunaihua @126. com ;,, :510275, :lijf @scnu. edu. cn ( :05BJL015)
JOURNAL OF NANJING UNIVERSITY OF FINANCE AND ECONOMICS Wild t % 50% 15% % 19 17%
( ) 2017 4 ( 206 ) 361005,,,, Wild t,,, ; ; ; Wild F062. 6 A 1672-6049 2017 04-0036-11 1-2 3-4 Persson and Zhuravskaya 5 Li and Zhou 6 4 7 8 Opper et al. 9 10 GDP 2017-04-20 2017-06-05 1988 36 JOURNAL
Chen et al. 0 0 Xu0 008 GDP Li and Zhou005 Blanchard and Shleifer00 Enikolopov and Zhuravshaya007 GDP GDP
30 009 006 600 00433 zhaochen@ fudan. edu. cn 08BJL008 985 B0 YES 0 9 3 009 009 Chen et al. 0 0 Xu0 008 GDP 007 008 005 Li and Zhou005 Blanchard and Shleifer00 Enikolopov and Zhuravshaya007 GDP GDP 008
284 ( ) 9,,,, 1,, ,,, 2005, , , 2004, , , ( 1), % 1 : ( ) : ( ), ( ), %, %
9 1 2009 10 ( ) China Eco nomic Quarterly Vol19, No11 October, 2009 3 30 1999 2005, :,,, 2002 2003,,,,, 20 80,,, 1986 1998 2004, 2002 4 ( ), ( ),,,,,,, 3 : 422,361005 ; : (0592) 2092938 ; E2mail :ruobingliang
49 Schroeder & Aoki 2009 Li Bird & Ebel SSCI Journal of Public Economics Zhang & Zou DC cbe = + 2 DC be =
48 2011 6 158 Shirk 1993 Montinola et al. 1996 1997 2010 2010 10BZZ035 2010 2010R0083 49 Schroeder & Aoki 2009 Li 2010 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. Bird & Ebel 2006 504 1 SSCI 2 1998 Journal of Public Economics Zhang
Microsoft Word - 1.2.Local government organization and finance in China.doc
1. 简 介 : 中 国 政 府 组 织 概 况 中 国 地 方 政 府 的 组 织 及 财 政 Local government organization and finance in China 乔 宝 云 (Baoyun Qiao) 沙 安 文 (Anwar Shah) 中 国 不 仅 被 世 人 誉 为 人 类 的 诞 生 地 之 一, 同 时 也 是 世 界 文 明 的 重 要 发 源 地
2007 3, ( ) :,, :,, 29 ( ) 1988 2001 11, (1995) Prud homme (2004),, :,,, :,, ;,,,,,, :,,,, : (1) ; (2) ; (3),, 21 1, 90,,,,, (2002), 1991 50 %, 1999 3
:?? 3 :, 90,, GMM,,, Tiebout : 30 10, 80,,,,,,,,,,,,, 3,, :200433, :junzh - 2000 @fudan. edu. cn ( :05JJD790076),, 2006 9 10, 4 2007 3, ( ) :,, :,, 29 ( ) 1988 2001 11, (1995) Prud homme (2004),, :,,,
2008 7,,,,,,, Samuelson (1954),,,,,,,,,, ;,,,,,,, ;,,,,,,,,,,, :,, () :,;,, Samuelson (1954),, Tiebout (1956),,,, Buchanan Tullock (1962) Wicksel,,, -
: :,, Besley,,, : (Qian and Weingast,1997 ;Qian, Roland and Xu,1998 ;,2006 ; ), (,2007),,,,, :,,,,,,,,,,,,,,Arrow (1951),Buchanan (1962),,,,, (,2006 ;,2007),,,, :2004, : 05101506 @fudan. edu. cn ;,, :510420,
::,,,,,,;,,,, (difference2in2difference) : (1) 20 80,,, (2), (Modigliani Cao, 2004) (Kraay, 2000) (3),,,, 100,30 40,, (),, Modigliani Cao (2004)
2008 10 : 3 : 1995 1999 (CHIPS),20 90 1995 1997,, : ;, - 014-013 ;,35 49,, : 1995 1997,,, 8 %,20 %, 5815 % 75 %5815 %,,, :,,,;,,,,,,,,, 90,,, 3,,, :srvnlx @gmail. com ;,, : 200433, :jfeng @fudan. edu.
350 ( ) 9,,,,,,,,,,, :,,,,,,, ( Ergin and Sgnmez, 2006) Gale and Shapley (1962), Gale2Shapley,, Gale2Shapley ( (2007) ) Dubins and Freedman (1981) Gal
9 1 2009 10 ( ) China Eco nomic Quarterly Vol19, No11 October, 2009 3,,,,,,,,, 2008,, 3, 4, 3 :, 361005 ; : (0592) 2573015 ; E2mail :wendyeye @gmail. com,, 350 ( ) 9,,,,,,,,,,, :,,,,,,, ( Ergin and Sgnmez,
2006 4,,,, TFP (,2003),, 90,,,, 2005,, ;,,,,,, (disembodied),,,, (,2003),,,,,, : y = Af ( k, l) : y, k, l, A, : = - -, ( ), ( ),,,,90,,,:,,,,,,,,,,,,,
: 3 :,,,,,, : -,,, (,1994,2002) ; (,2003) ; (, 2002) ; (,2005) ; (2006),,,,,, ( TFP, ),,, (,2005 ;,2005),,,,,,,,, 1997, 3, 4 2006 4,,,, TFP (,2003),, 90,,,, 2005,, ;,,,,,, (disembodied),,,, (,2003),,,,,,
Lewis
2011 6 World Economic Papers December, 2011 * 2005 2010 2005 * 985 email jadeyyx@ 163. com 600 200433 985 email zhangping_4@ sina. com 985 2011SHKXZD003 2011M500711 20110490654 11CJL024 2011 6 33 Lewis
( ) : ( TFP) TFP, ( GDP) TFP ; OLS Panel Data Dynamic Panel Data ( GMM), : TFP, TFP, TFP TFP :,,, (TFP), Chow and Lin(2002) (
3 ( 510275) 1982 2002 ( TFP) TFP, ( GDP) TFP ; OLS Panel Data Dynamic Panel Data ( GMM), TFP, TFP, TFP TFP,,, (TFP), Chow and Lin(2002) (2003), TFP TFP, TFP Young(1995) TFP Easterly and Levine (2001),
: 3 : , , ,, , :, ( Ravallion Chen, 2004 ; Khan Riskin, 2005,Yue et al, 2006),, (,2003 ;,200
: 3 : 1995 2002, 1998 2002 1991 1995, 1991 1995,, 1998 2002, :, 80 013 0145 (Ravallion Chen, 2004 ; Khan Riskin, 2005,Yue et al, 2006),, (,2003 ;,2006),, (Li et al,1998),,,?,, ( Fields, 2005),,, (income
:,,, (Naughton,1999 ;Xu,2002 ; Fan and Wei,2003 ;, 2004,2006 ;,2004,2006 ;,2006),,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, ISCP ( 1),, ISCP SCP ISCP,I( Institution) ; S ( Struc
3 :, 4 19 49,,,,, : ISCP : 30,:,,, ;, ;,,,,,,, (,2005),,,,,, (,2008),, (,2006),, ( Young,2000 ; Poncet,2002,2003 ;,2003) ; 3,, :250100, :Lcyu @sdu. edu. cn,ydhwz @sdu. edu. cn ( 06JZD0015),, 119 :,,, (Naughton,1999
% 82. 8% You & Kobayashi % 2007 %
202 2 * 5. 6 995 2008 0 2008 28% Meng 2003 2000 2009 9. 4% 47% 200 % 2% 20% 50% Gruber & Yelowitz 999 Engen & Gruber 200 Chou et al. 2003 200 200 200 Brown et al. 200 2003 2003 2006 2006 * 00084 wubzh@
CHIPS Oaxaca - Blinder % Sicular et al CASS Becker & Chiswick ~ 2000 Becker & Chiswick 196
2015 3 179 2015 5 Comparative Economic & Social Systems No. 3 2015 May 2015 2001 ~ 2011 F812 A 1003-3947 2015 03-0020-14 Wu & Perloff 2004 Benjamin et al. 2004 Sicular et al. 2007 1998 2003 40% 1985 2.
2005 9 7 1 6 00 9 00 205 2 ( 010 ) 82030989 ( ) E-mail zy0989@sohu.com 3 52763225 E-mail luoqj@pku.edu.cn 62764414 E-mail c.y.wang@hotmail.com 4 3 19 57 5 Romer, David ( 1996 ), Advanced Macroeconomics
2007 7,,, Faccio (2006) 47,,, Leuz Oberholzer2Gee (2006),,,,,,,,Fan Wong Zhang (2007a),,, Chen Li Su (2005),, ;, Fan Rui Zhao (2006) 23,,,,Fan Wong Zh
: : 2001 2003, :, ;,,,,, ( ), :,,,,,,,, (Williamson,2000 ;,2004 ;,2005),,,La Porta,,,, (La Porta et al,1998),, (La Porta et al,1999) Roe (2000), 3,(Center for Institutions and Governance), :200433,: sufexlj
Myers Majluf 1984 Lu Putnam R&D R&D R&D R&D
2018 1 156 1 2 2 1. 233030 2. 233030 2005 ~ 2015 A F830. 2 A 1008-2506 2018 01-0015-12 1 2015 1 2017-07-18 71540004 BBSLDQDKT2017B02 1990-1993 - 1964-1 15 2018 1 2025 2015 1 2011 2 + Myers Majluf 1984
:, ( Treisman, 2000), ( Fisman and Gatti, 2002), (Bruenett and Weder, 2003),( Glaeser and Saks, 2006),,,, ( Transparency International),2007 (Corrupti
3 : 1989 2004,,,,, 1 % 0168 % 1 % FDI, :,, (Shleifer and Vishny, 1993), (La Porta et al,1999 ;Djankov et al,2003), :,,, ;,, ;,,,,,, :,,,, ;,,, ;,,,, (Mauro, 1995 ; Glaeser and Saks, 2006) 90,,Ades Di Tella
Oates U
2018 3 94 233030 30 20002015 F061. 5 F062. 1 A 1671-9301 2018 03-0053-11 DOI:10.13269/j.cnki.ier.2018.03.005 1 1994 2018-02-22 2018-04-26 1981 13&ZD025 1708085MG172 KJ2018A0442 2017ZD003 53 2 3 4 5 Oates
: 3 :,,,,,,,,,,,, :, 30 9 %, (1994) (The Myth of Asiaπs Miracle),,,,, 1997,,,,, :,,,,, (1994) 1998, 1998,,,,,,, ( ),, :,?,? 3,, :100871, e
: 3 :,,,,,,,,,,,, :,30 9 %, (1994) (The Myth of Asiaπs Miracle),,,,,1997,,,,, :,,,,, (1994) 1998, 1998,,,,,,, ( ),, :,?,? 3,, :100871, :jjxy @pku. edu. cn ;,, :100871, :nk94zhang @pku. edu. cn 2008 ( :
614 ( ) 11 Naughton (1988) Bo (1998) Su andyang (2000) Xu (2011) LiandZhou (2005) (2007) Huang (1996) SuandYang (2000)
11 2 2012 1 ( ) ChinaEconomicQuarterly Vol.11No.2 January2012 * 1985 2007 (2007) (2007) (2007) (20082009) Xu (2011) ( ) * 985 ; ; 985 : 600 200433; :13564812081;E-mail:zpwhu@163.com 985 ( :2011SHKXZD003)
1.2 资 金 的 管 理 1.1 权 利 义 务 来 源 MOU 1.3 数 据 的 使 用 和 保 护 2 国 际 空 间 站 资 源 分 配 方 案 54
第 29 卷 第 12 期 全 球 科 技 经 济 瞭 望 Vol. 29 No. 12 2014 年 12 月 Global Science, Technology and Economy Outlook Dec. 2014 刘 阳 子 ( 中 国 科 学 技 术 信 息 研 究 所, 北 京 ) 摘 要 : 空 间 探 索 既 复 杂 艰 巨 又 耗 资 甚 大, 因 此, 世 界 各 国 无
83 2004 2007 2010 / / / Kornai1993 hierarchy Weber1958 Williamson 1979 chain of command Downs 1994 Tullock 1992 Lazear1998 Li & Zhou 2005 2008 promoti
2014 5 175 2014 9 Comparative Economic & Social Systems No. 5 2014 Sep. 2014 D08 A 1003-3947 2014 05-0082-14 1 / 2 1 Bo 2002 2010 2 20 80 2008 2013 83 2004 2007 2010 / / / Kornai1993 hierarchy Weber1958
elections. In addition, the positive CARs exist during the full event date that indicates the election bull run do happen in Taiwan. When incumbent go
A Study on the Relationship between of Election and Taiwan s Stock Market 992 9 2004 9 GARCH GARCH Ching-Jun, Hsu Wen-Yan Yu, Institute of Financial Management, Nan Hua University ABSTRACT This study examines
% 5. 1% % % % GDP % % 4% 2003 Tsui
2013 2 World Economic Papers April, 2013 * Tiebout 1995 2004 Qian and Roland 1998 2008 Zhang and Zou 1998 2001 1 2007 2009 1993 GDP 4% * E-mail ivannj@ 163. com 1037 212 430074 E-mail junzh_2000@ fudan.
3 L K Y Y t =A t F L t K t 1 A 1 15~ UN % 65 7% 55
2010 2008 3 1851 2006 2010 2000 54 3 L K Y Y t =A t F L t K t 1 A 1 15~64 2005 2 2010 2025 UN 2008 1 1 1 2 60 10% 65 7% 55 2010 Y t =A t L t K α 1- t α 2 y y t =α l t + 1- α k t +a t 3 l k a 1985 2010
untitled
No. C2005007 2005-10 Email xqping@ccer.pku.edu.cn No. C2005007 2005 10 12 1978 0 Email xqping@ccer.pku.edu.cn No. C2005007 2005 10 12 1978 1 ...3...5...8...10 Adaptive Heuristics...13...14...16...18 2
Microsoft Word - 2季刊3-3(15013).docx
兩 岸 金 融 季 刊 第 三 卷 第 三 期 (2015 年 9 月 ) 地 方 官 員 升 遷 的 影 響 因 素 研 究 以 中 國 各 省 為 例 呂 青 樺 * 中 國 科 技 大 學 財 務 金 融 系 副 教 授 沈 中 華 台 灣 大 學 財 務 金 融 系 教 授 摘 要 本 研 究 討 論 中 國 自 改 革 開 放 以 來, 省 長 的 升 遷 或 職 務 異 動 的 主 要
, ( ) , , ( 1) , 20 %, 216 %, 20 %, , 24 %, 311 %
1997 3 Ξ ( ) 80,, U, Birdsall (1995) U ( 1991) ;,, : ( ),,,, U,,,,,, ( 1994),,,, (1955),,,, : U (1991), 1981 1995 Ξ ; ;, ;,, 1-2 1/ 3,, 21 , ( ) 012635 013650, 012256 013350, 011618 012650 ( 1) 1988 01197
标题
香 港 知 识 溢 出 对 内 地 创 新 能 力 影 响 的 实 证 研 究 以 广 东 省 为 例 王 鹏 赵 捷 摘 要 : 改 革 开 放 以 来, 内 地 经 济 技 术 和 创 新 水 平 的 提 高 离 不 开 源 自 香 港 的 知 识 溢 出 本 文 以 广 东 省 为 例, 运 用 1990 ~ 2010 年 粤 港 两 地 经 济 社 会 数 据, 从 知 识 溢 出 角 度
Alexander & Wyeth Dercon 1995 ECM - Johansen Goodwin 1992 VEC Asche 1999 Gonzalez 2001 ECM Goodwin
2012 3 * 0. 20 0. 36 0. 05 2006 2010 1. 46 / 2. 14 / 2. 93 / 4. 41 / 1. 27 / 2. 12 / 47% 50% 67% 2006 1 3. 48 / 2010 11 5. 84 / 68% 1 2010 CPI 70% 2006 2006 1 106. 06 2008 6 188. 02 77. 3% 2010 11 173.
,,,,,Modigliani - Miller Bernanke, Gertler Gilchrist 1996,, Bernanke, Gertler Gilchrist ( ) ( ),,,, Bernanke, Gertler Gilchrist (1999),,, RBC, Bernank
RBC 3 (, 100871) RBC,, RBC,, ; ; F83015 A 1002-7246(2005) 04-0016 - 15 RBC,, Modigliani - Miller (1958 ),, RBC,, RBC,?? Gertler 1988, Fisher Keynes,,,,,,,,,, 2005-03 - 05 (1978 - ),,, (1970 - ),,,, 3 Chi
2008 1,,, Aghion et al (2006) 83, ,,,,, :, ;,,,,,, ( Edwards,1986) : (1),(FEER) (BEER) ; (2) Dunaway et al (2006),, VAR VEC, FEER BEER,, ; (3)
: 3 :,,,,;, :,,,;,, : 2001,,,2005 7 21,30, (, 2005),Jeanneney and Hua (2003)?, (1999) (2003) (2005) (2006a) (2006) (2006) (2007),,,,, ( ) Krugman and Obstfeld (2000) :, Dunaway et al. (2006),,,,,, ( Gonzaga
Microsoft Word - zt08.doc
国 家 统 计 局 综 合 司 队 我 国 地 区 经 济 增 长 收 敛 性 的 实 证 研 究 目 录 摘 要...1 一 理 论 背 景 和 文 献 综 述...2 二 我 国 地 区 经 济 发 展 差 距 变 化 情 况...5 三 我 国 地 区 经 济 增 长 收 敛 的 实 证 分 析...6 ( 一 )δ 收 敛 的 检 验...6 ( 二 )β 收 敛 的 检 验...7 1 β
892 ( ) 9,,, Li et al. (2007),,, ( Appleton et al., 2009) ;, (intra2house2 hold), (Li, 2008),,, ( Nee, 1989, 1996),, CGSS (2005),,, ; ;, : (1),, (2),,
9 3 2010 4 ( ) China Eco no mic Quarterly Vol19, No13 April, 2010 3 (CGSS 2005),,, :,,,,,,,, 1, Szelenyi (1987), Nee ( 1989, 1991, 1996), Ro na2tas ( 1994 ), Walder ( 1996 ), Morduch and Sicular ( 2000
标题
2016 年 第 3 期 ( 总 第 216 期 ) 人 口 与 经 济 POPULATION & ECONOMICS No. 3, 2016 ( Tot. No. 216) 同 胞 数 量 与 教 育 获 得 的 性 别 差 异 黎 煦, 刘 华 ( 首 都 经 济 贸 易 大 学 劳 动 经 济 学 院, 北 京 100070) 摘 要 : 同 胞 数 量 对 教 育 获 得 的 影 响 存 在
DID 13. 0% 20. 2% 12. 6% 30 1 Leland 1968 Zeldes 1989 Zeldes 1989 Carroll Skinner 1987 Zhang & Wan
2012 7! 2007 2008 13. 0% 20. 2% 12. 6% 2008 1 1990 2007 2010 2000 2007 20% 25% 2007 2010 80 1999 2007 2008 1 1999 2007 * 610074 zangwenbin@ gmail. com 100871 ggliu@ unc. edu 100871 xufei0505@ hotmail.
934 () 7, CO2 COD SO2 D EA,, :,, GDP ;,, ; ; DEA ; ; 30,, (GDP ) ( GDP ) (1997b), GDP 1011 %1017 %, 206 ( ) ; %3817 %,, 20, (2006),
7 3 2008 4 () China Econo mic Quarterly Vol17, No13 Ap ril, 2008 (1999 2005) 3,,,,,,, GDP,, 30, (DEA ) (, 2005 ; Zheng and Hu, 2006), GDP, TFP, :, TFP,,,, GDP Solow TFP,, 3, ;,;,;, ;,:,Box 640, S2405 30,
Rawski Nolanand Ash Caiand Li 2002 Stiglitz , 2 [1]
![Rawski Nolanand Ash Caiand Li 2002 Stiglitz , 2 [1]](/thumbs/93/114031392.jpg "Rawski Nolanand Ash Caiand Li 2002 Stiglitz , 2 [1]")
2008,,,,, 100009, 100009 20 80 Sachs 1992 1999 2000 I., Gaidar 1992) E.Yasin 200 2008JYJ015 78 1994 1992-199 1995 Rawski Nolanand Ash Caiand Li 2002 Stiglitz 1998 200 5 100 199 2000 1 2000 80, 2 [1] 1993
HP Hodrick and Prescott 980 BK Baxter and King 999 CF Christiano and Fitzgerald 2003 Harvey 989 Harvey and Shephard Chen et
202 5 World Economic Papers October, 202 * 99 993 200 2 20 90 2 200 998 20 80 992 993 2 998 2003 20 90 * E-mail chenyingnan@ tsinghua. edu. cn 0 305 00084 E-mail pro. chenjian@ 263. net 200 09&ZD042 2CJY029
Girton Roper (1977),,,,,, ( ),,,,,,, ( Exchange Market Pressure) 30 EMP, EMP EMP,Girton Roper (1977), ,,, Kim(1985) ,,, T
: : : 3 : 1994 1 2008 1,,,,,,, : 1994,,, 1994 1 1, 1 8172, 1997 7, 1 8130, 418 % 2005 7 21, 1 8111, 2 % 2005,,2007, 1 713046, 2006 619 %, 2005, 1313 %,2007, 0141 %, 310,,?,?,?, Girton Roper (1977) ( EMP),
:, ( ),, :,60,, 1962,, ( ),,,,, 1986,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, ( ), C,,,,,,,,,,,,, X,,,;,,, ; ( ),,, Mirrless (1976) : (1), (2),,, 60 (1996),:
3 :,,,,,,, : :,,,,,, (1989), ( ) 1961 W, 1968,,,, :,,,,, 1958,, 1970 :,,:,, () 1Π2,, 1968 3,,:300071,:zclilac @yahoo. com. cn, 59 :, ( ),, :,60,, 1962,, ( ),,,,, 1986,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, ( ), C,,,,,,,,,,,,,
Kuznets 1979 Rodrik 2008 Clark,1940 Lewis,1954 Chenery, 1986 Schultz 1956,1975 Dennison YJA
2015 1 361005 30 Kuznets 1979 Rodrik 2008 Clark,1940 Lewis,1954 Chenery, 1986 Schultz 1956,1975 Dennison 1960 14JA790086 29 Nelson Phelps 1966 60 70 80 Lucas 1988 80 Romer 1990 Barro Lee,1993 Schultz 1996
:, ,, 1985, ; ,,,, ,,, 1992,, 1 : 2005 ; ( ),, ,,,, 1996, 211 %,1997, ( %) ( ),1998,1998,, : 1998,
3 : 1998,, 1992 2004,,,, : :,, 2004 (,2005) ( ), 90,,, 30, (building cycles), 80, 20 90,, 21,,,,,,,,,,, 1992 2004,,,, ( 1),,, : 3,, :100836, :zhang - xj @cass. org. cn ;,, :suntao @pbc. gov. cn,,, 23 :,1978
2011 2011 A B A 18 A 2006 2007 2008 2007 2007a 2007b 2007 2010 2010 2011 2009 2007 2011 23
A 18 * A 18 A D035. 1 A 1674-2486 2015 02-0022 - 25 Bennett 1976 Cell 1977 Whyte 1974 * chennabo@ mail. sysu. edu / 12YJC840048 13YJA810002 985 22 2011 2011 A B A 18 A 2006 2007 2008 2007 2007a 2007b 2007
( ) : ,,, 10 %,,, :,,,,, : (1) ; (2), ; (3), ; (4), ; (5) ( ), (2003),,,,,,, , 20,, ST,,,, :? ( ) 3 ( ) 77
2005 4 3 ( 100084) : 1998 2002,,, 10 %,,, :,,,,, : (1) ; (2), ; (3), ; (4),; (5) ( ),(2003),,,,,,, 1997 1, 20,, ST,,,,:? ( ) 3 (70473046) 77 :,?,, Modigliani Miller (1958), Jensen Meckling (1976),Grossman
Oliver Williamson Richard Levin Henry Rosovsky Board of Trustees Board of Regents 2 3 1Henry Rosovsky The University An O
36 5 Vol. 36 No.5 2 0 1 5 9 TSINGHUA JOURNAL OF EDUCATION Sep. 2 0 1 5 100084 G649. 21 DOI 10. 14138 /j. 1001-4519. 2015. 05. 000112 A 1001-4519 2015 05-0001 - 12 7 4 Bologna Humboldt William Kirby 2002-06
<4D6963726F736F667420576F7264202D20D3C3BFB4B2BBBCFBB5C4CAD6D6CEC0EDCDA8D5CD332E646F63>
用 看 不 见 的 手 治 理 通 胀 刘 愿 华 南 师 范 大 学 经 济 与 管 理 学 院 摘 要 : 凯 恩 斯 主 义 主 导 下 的 宏 观 调 控 政 策 导 致 通 货 膨 胀 成 为 一 种 周 期 性 现 象,2008 年 全 球 金 融 危 机 以 来 新 一 轮 的 通 货 膨 胀 对 我 国 国 民 经 济 及 居 民 生 活 已 造 成 深 刻 影 响 从 政 策 层
「當前賦稅改革重點」相關問題研析 - 國家政策研究基金會
德 明 學 報 第 三 十 七 卷 第 一 期 民 國 102 年 6 月 pp.35-52 我 國 當 前 地 方 政 府 財 政 赤 字 之 研 究 我 國 當 前 地 方 政 府 財 政 赤 字 之 研 究 The Research of Taiwan Local Governments s Fiscal Deficit 王 有 康 Yu-Kun, Wang 國 立 成 功 大 學 政 治 經
%
* - - 100872 D815 A 1006-9550 2012 03-0004 - 16 * 10JJDGJW018 4 2012 3 1 10% 2 1 2 20 2007 2004 5 1988 2008 1-2011 1 2001 2003 2001 6 2012 3 20 Vikings - military /political power - 1 / / / 1-2011 - 2011
2012 9 * 1988 2007 1988 2007 1988 2002 2007 Oaxaca- Blinder 1995 2002 2007 Oaxaca-Blinder Baron 1988 Abbott 1993 Kalleberg 2008 Kunda et al. 2002 20 70 Kalleberg 2008 ILO 2002 2005 85% 2006 * 100872 mr.
INDUSTRIAL ECONOMICS RESEARCH GDP Crain Oakley 9 Kemmerling Stephan 10 Castells Solé-Ollé 11 Lambrinidis 12 Monastiriotis Psycharis
2015 2 75 400044 1 2 3 F810. 4 A 1671-9301 2015 02-0100-11 DOI:10.13269/j.cnki.ier.2015.02.010 1-2 3-4 5-6 2014-11-02 2015-01-14 1988 1964 12CJL041 2013-47-12 14YAZH064 100 INDUSTRIAL ECONOMICS RESEARCH
WTO GDP 9.4% GDP 8.1% , , % 15.7% ( 1999) (GATT)
WTO 1 WTO (1) (2) (3) WTO (4) WTO (5) WTO (6) WTO WTO 1 yangihsun@yahoo.com.tw 1 WTO 1979 1979 2003 GDP 9.4% GDP 8.1% 2003 8512.1 4,383.7 4,128.4 1978 97.5 108.9 25 16.4% 15.7% 2003 2 20 1 2 3 4 5 ( 1999)
:,; ;, ( ) 25,, 80 90, 90,,,,,,, ( ), ( ), %,, , ,, ( ),,, ;,,,,,,,,,, ( ) , , 3395,3400, 20 % 30 %,
2005 12 3 ( 100101 ;) ( 100101) :,,,,,,,, : 20,, 20 90,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 3 Urban China Research Network (UCRN) in Albany, New York,,Scott Rozelle,,,, 45 :,; ;, ( ) 25,, 80 90, 90,,,,,,, ( ), ( ), 2003
M 2 ΠGDP (1996) M2ΠGDP (2000) (2000) (2001) (2001) (2001) (2002) (2002) (2002) (2003) (2001) (2005) (2005) (2006) (2004) M2ΠGDP ; M2ΠGDP ; M2ΠG
3 2006 GDP 1017 % (CPI) 115 % 2005 (Pagano 1993 ; King and Levin 1993 ;Rajan and Zingales 1998 ; 2001) (1984) (1989) (1992) (1992) (2005) M2 (1996 1997) (2000) ; (2002) (2006) ( ) 3 ( 06&ZD004-01) 4 2007
Microsoft Word - Raymond _2011_ - Agglomeration Spillovers and Industry Policy _HKEJM_.doc
本 文 刊 登 於 信 報 財 經 月 刊, 第 415 期,2011 年 10 月, 第 126 129 頁 政 府 優 惠 引 資 的 產 業 政 策 評 價 楊 偉 文 ( 香 港 樹 仁 大 學 經 濟 及 金 融 學 系 助 理 教 授 ) 大 學 的 基 礎 經 濟 學, 有 一 課 名 為 市 場 結 構 (market structure), 屬 於 經 濟 學 中 最 基 礎 的
% 30% % % % %
2 2 Economics of Education Research (Beida) 3 2004 6 Institute of Economics of Education, Peking University 100871 2001 115 6 70% 2002 145 6 64.7% 5 2002 80% 2003 212 67 46% 2003 6 2003 8 1 50 15 2003
( 1 2 ) ( ) ( )
2010 4 4 ( 265 ) China Industrial Economics Apr. 2010 No.4 ( 361005) [ ] Combes et al.(2007) 16 13 19 1994 2007 : 1990 ; ; [ ] ; ; ; [ ]F124.1 [ ]A [ ]1006-480X(2010)04-0035-11 [ ] 2010-03-15 (J. Gottmann)1957
Sept Arab World Studies No.5. Paul D. Miller, The Fading Arab Oil Empire, The National Interest, July/August 2012, Number 120, pp. 38-4
2013 9 Sept. 2013 5 Arab World Studies No.5. Paul D. Miller, The Fading Arab Oil Empire, The National Interest, July/August 2012, Number 120, pp. 38-43. 59 IEA 2012 11 2015 2017 2012 9 2012 6 Pramod Kulkarni,
( 2012) ( 2007) ( 2011) 2010 (2009) BlanchardShleifer(2000) ( 2005) : : ( 2006) (2005) Rona-Tas(1994) (1995) : : 123
2012 9 9 (294 ) China Industrial Economics Sep. 2012 No.9 1 2 3 ( 510275) [ ] [ ] ; ; [ ]F276.5 [ ]A [ ]1006-480X(2012)09-0122-13 ( 2005) ( 2011; 2012) () ( 1998) (2005) : (BianLogan1996) ( 1998) (Zhou
186 ( ) 7,,,,,,, (, 2005a), 1995, :??,,,,,,, Solow (1957), ;, Romer (1986), L ucas (1988),,, Farrell (1957), Nishinizu and Page (1982), ( TFP) Fare et
7 1 2007 10 ( ) China Econo mic Quarterly Vol17, No11 October, 2007 3, FDI,,,,,,, GDP 300, 2002 1 000, 2006 2 000,,,??????,,, 3, ; : 152,, :430079 ; E2mail :tuzhengge @163. com,, ; E2mail :xiaogeng @hku.
GDP % % 10 43
* 1 1978 1* 42 1994 1995 2011 2012 2012 1978 1994 GDP 1 1981 15% 1994 60% 10 43 2018. 1 1 2008 2009 1994 2009b 340 2009a 211 222 + 2009c 89 44 106 80 GDP 1980 12. 7% 1993 60% 1 Weitzman & Xu 1994 1995
by industrial structure evolution from 1952 to 2007 and its influence effect was first acceleration and then deceleration second the effects of indust
2011 2 1 1 2 3 4 1. 100101 2. 100124 3. 100039 4. 650092 - - - 3 GDP U 20-30 60% 10% TK01 A 1002-9753 2011 02-0042 - 10 Analysis on Character and Potential of Energy Saving and Carbon Reducing by Structure
- -
- 洪 紹 洋 國 立 陽 明 大 學 人 文 與 社 會 教 育 中 心 教 授 Amsden Wade NICs - - -.%.%.%.%.%.% - % %....................................... Taiwan Statistic Data Book GDP GDP,,,,,,,,,,, -,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
与林老师对话
No. C2003027 2003-10 1 No. C2003027 2003 10 6 1 ...5...7...7...11...14...21...21...25...31...37...42...42...44...48...48...49...51...53 2-1 1995-2002 2-2 2000 4 4 2-3 1980-2001 6 3-1 2000 22 3-2 3-3 23
: :,,,,,,,, ebay ebay,, Lucking2Reiley (2000) Houser Wooders (2001) Kalyanam McIntyre (2001) Melnik Alm (2002) Dewan Hsu (2004) Dewally Ederington (20
2006 12 : 3 :,,, ;, : 3,, :100871, :zhoula @gsm. pku. edu. cn,wyzhang @gsm. pku. edu. cn ;, ;, Lonnie Magee ( 70533020),,,,,, (Akerlof,1970 ; Kreps,1990),, ( Klein, 1997 ;,2003), Shapiro (1983), (premium),,,
World Economic Papers October, 2013 * % * gmail. com
203 5 World Economic Papers October, 203 * 5 0 2009 20 4. % 203 2005 499 * E-mail sunsanbai@ gmail. com 5 2 00026 20309 203 5 7 20 Clark et al. 2009 Sloane 2000 Bender 2006 Campbell 20 202 Card et al.
2001 2,, (Devine & Kiefer, 1991), :, ;,,,,?, 300, 57 % ( Granovetter, 1974),, ( Fernan2 dez & Weinberg, 1997) :,, ( Granovetter, 1973),,,,,,,, (Lin, 1
, 4, 1999,, 3 :,,, 1955,,, ;, 1963, 3,,,, 1956 1999 43,?,? 1999, 4,,,, 20 70, ( Granovetter),, 30, (), ( Information Asymmetry), 77 2001 2,, (Devine & Kiefer, 1991), :, ;,,,,?, 300, 57 % ( Granovetter,
20 5 Vol.20 No.5 2018 9 Journal of Shijiazhuang University Sep. 2018 1 2 1 1. 100029 2. 063000 F752.5 A 1673-19722018 05-0073-12 DOI:10.13573/j.cnki.sjzxyxb.2018.05.014 2017 2 [1]25 [2] [3]12 2018-06-02
~ 10 2 P Y i t = my i t W Y i t 1000 PY i t Y t i W Y i t t i m Y i t t i 15 ~ 49 1 Y Y Y 15 ~ j j t j t = j P i t i = 15 P n i t n Y
* 35 4 2011 7 Vol. 35 No. 4 July 2011 3 Population Research 1950 ~ 1981 The Estimation Method and Its Application of Cohort Age - specific Fertility Rates Wang Gongzhou Hu Yaoling Abstract Based on the
Oates 1999 Stein Flypaper Effect Fungibility Oates 1999 Melitz and Zumer 1999 Hepp and von Hagen Tsui 2005
* Qian and Roland 1998 Blanchard and Shleifer 2000 Li and Zhou 2005 2007 Young 2000 2004 2002 2010 32341. 09 2010 1 0. 36 0. 41 1 0. 67 0. 87 1 * 200433 fu. wenlin@ mail. shufe. edu. cn 210093 shenkr@
:,,,,,, : 1990,,?,,,,, 2000 (,2004) :1990,,,,,2000, (,2008),,,,,,,,, 1990,,,, 4, 10, ( ) 90,,,,, 2000,,, ,2000,, % % ;,
2009 8 3 :,, CHIP,,, 12 %,,,,, :,,,,1990,,,,,, 2000 6213 % 2007 4818 %,,, 2007 17, 69 %, ( Duesenbery Friedman Modigliani Hall ),, ( Leland,1968 ;Miller,1976 ; Kimball,1990 ), NLS PSID, ( Caballero, 1991
1 CAPM CAPM % % Wippern, aGebhardt Lee Swaminathan % 5.10% 4.18% 2 3 1Gebhardt Lee Swa
Zingales 2000 Corporate finance is the study of the way firms are financed 1 2 3 1 2 3 4 1 2 1 1 1 CAPM CAPM 2001 2.42% 20002001 1.18% Wippern, 1966 2003aGebhardt Lee Swaminathan 2003 1 1998 2000 1 1998
1 a benevolen governmen Baaglini Coae 005 Golosov 007 Berola 1993 Peroi 1993 Alesina Rodrik 1994 a self - ineresed governmen Besley Case 1995 Acemoglu
1 3 U U 4 510006 dengkebin@ mail. gdufs. edu. cn 361005 wym@ xmu. edu. cn 71003030 7107303 09&ZD01 10CJ010 09YJC79005 09E03 JA11010S 10Y05 1 3 1 a benevolen governmen Baaglini Coae 005 Golosov 007 Berola
,,,,,,, :,,,,, ;,,,,,, : N = Y pr, dn N = dy Y - dpr pr, Y, N, pr,, (1),, ( : / ) :,, : t pr = e 1980 t = 1,t 9
() FUDAN JOURNAL (Social Sciences) 2005 5 No. 5 2005 (, 200433) [ ] 2005 2010, :,10-12 %,300 600,, :,;, [] [] C913. 2 ;F127 [] A [ ] 0257 0289 (2005) 05 0202 011,, 1980 1990,1988 2500,1995 8000,2003 9820
000 00 998 Heidenheimer Johnston Philp A B C A C. Lambsdorff Treisman. 989 00 FDI Heidenheimer Arnold J. &Michael Johnston. Political Corruption Conce
0 6 No. 6 0 JOURNAL OF SUN YAT-SEN UNIVERSITY Vol. 6 SOCIAL SCIENCE EDITION General No. 6 * 000 00 000 00 U D60. 9 A 000-969 0 06-08 - Lambsdorff * 0 08 0 0 &ZD0 98 07 07 Lambsdorff Johann Graf. Causes
<4D6963726F736F667420506F776572506F696E74202D20D0D0D5FED6F0BCB6B7A2B0FCD6C62E707074>
行 政 逐 级 发 包 制 : 关 于 政 府 间 关 系 的 经 济 学 分 析 周 黎 安 北 京 大 学 光 华 管 理 学 院 北 京 大 学 莫 里 斯 经 济 政 策 研 究 所 2007 年 10 月 14 日 第 一 节 中 央 和 地 方 关 系 的 集 权 - 分 权 悖 论 : 问 题 的 提 出 基 本 事 实 中 国 一 方 面 是 最 集 权 的 国 家, 中 央 以 下
Hesketh and Zhu Dreze and Khera 2000 Zhao 2003 Sen and Nair Das Gupta and Li 1999 Banister 2004 Hudson and Den Boer 20
2012 18 5 POPULATION & DEVELOPMENT Vol. 18 No. 5 2012 1 2 2 3 1 710061 2 710049 3 710049 2007-2009 C913 A 1674-1668 2012 05-0026 - 10 Anomia of Stakeholders at Micro Level in the Context of Gender Imbalance
2
2001.3~2003.4 1 2 3 ABSTRACT Key words: WTO Accession, Sino-US Trade Relations, Foreign Trade Strategies 4 5 6 ...9... 16... 16... 21... 25... 29... 32... 37... 37... 42... 45... 49... 53... 53... 61...
35 2 2011 3 Vol. 35 No. 2 March 2011 83 Population Research * 2 100872 Birth Interval between First and Second Child and Its Policy Implications Liu Shuang Zou Mingru Abstract Using data of international
引言
1 2 Szelenyi Kostello (1996) Gordon (2000) (Alcock, 1997, pp92-96; Burden, 2000; Duffy, 1998; Gordon et al, 2000; Jordan, 1996; Saraceno, 1997; SEU, 2001) (Bauman, 1998 Silverman & Yanowitch, 1997) 1979
fiscal decentralization local financial managerial capability 2
621 160 05-2428238 05-2721195 E- Mail polkjl@ccunix.ccu.edu.tw 1 fiscal decentralization local financial managerial capability 2 91 1 27 91 2 19 91 5 24 1990 3 fundamentalism 2000 fiscal decentralization
2009 10 Bairoch,1930 1999) (Angus Maddison,1926 ) (Bairoch, 1976, 1981), 1960,1800 324, 220, 228 ;1840 206, 447, 310, 178 (1993) (1988) Peter Brecke (
:1600 1840 1600 1840 3 :, 1600 1840 GDP, GDP, 1600, GDP 415 ( 1990 388 ), 1840 314 (1600, 1990 318 ) 1600 1840, GDP 55 %, 0118 %, GDP 25 %, - 0112 % : GDP 20,,,,, (,1998 ;,2001),,, ( GDP) GDP,, 1600 1840
:,,,, :,,,,,,,,,, Slesnick (1991) Culter Katz (1992),,,,,, ;, ( Friedman,1957) (Moligdiani,1950),,,, 1 ( )Π (World Bank,2000), ( CHIP 1
3 :, CHIP 1988 1995 2002,,,, ;,, ;, :,,,,,,,,, 312 %, 5 (,2006),,,,,, (Chinese Household Income Project,CHIP) 1988 1995, 0134 0142 ( Khan and Riskin, 1998) Benjamin et al (2005),1987 2001, 0132 0137,,,,,???,,
Demsetz(1982) Bain ( ) : 4 6?? ( 2005) 2004~ (2000) : ; 7 ; ;? (Lenway and Rehbein1991) ( ) ( ) ( 2006) ( 2002) Bain(1956)
( ) 2009 5 * 2004~2006 20 1 1989~2005 28% GDP 65% (2008) 20% 90.31% 2 2005 2 24 3 (1995) ( 2004) (Bian and Soon1997) * (20080440118) (70772084) (70802062) (70532003) - 97 - Demsetz(1982) Bain ( 5 2005)
20 79 Bateman APRA ATO GDP APRA % %
2012 1 159 2012 1 Comparative Economic & Social Systems No. 1 2012 Jan. 2012 20 1997 2001 2008 F81 A 1003-3947 2012 01-0078-11 1991 20 20 Superannuation 19 20 80 50% 30% 25% Bateman and Piggott 2001 1991
,, :, ;,,?, : (1), ; (2),,,, ; (3),,, :,;; ;,,,,(Markowitz,1952) 1959 (,,2000),,, 20 60, ( Evans and Archer,1968) ,,,
: : : 3 :2004 6 30 39 67,, 2005 1 1 2006 12 31,,, ( Evans and Archer) (Latane and Young) (Markowitz) :,,, :?,?,,,, 2006 12 31, 321, 8564161,53 1623150, 18196 % ; 268 6941110, 81104 %, 50 %,,2006,,,2006,
PowerPoint 簡報
* 91 5 30 * 3 4 12 19 22 28 2 Central Bank system currency board system dollarization system free banking system Kurt Schuler 155 3 game theory independence transparency accountability 4 31 0 M M P P 0
92
* ** ** 9 92 % 80.0 70.0 60.0 50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0 0.0 0.0 % 60.0 50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0 0.0 0.0 990 2000 200 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 200 978 979 980 98 982 983 984 985 986 987 988 989 990