Hayward 2 3 Fogel % % 4 Body mass index Quetelet index % 5 U U

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阁富察
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2 Hayward 2 3 Fogel % % 4 Body mass index Quetelet index % 5 U U /

3 % 2. 5% 14 Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity SurveyCLHLS / / CLHLS / / /2009 CLHLS CLHLS CLHLS / / CLHLS 2008 / /2012 CLHLS 2008 /2009 / BMI = kg /m

4 % 1 % = 5815 = % Cox = BMI < BMI BMI BMI = Ⅰ BMI Ⅱ BMI = Ⅲ BMI = = = = = Cox = Partial Likelihood = Cox = h i t = λ 0 t e β 1 X i1 + +β k X ik 1 h i t i t λ 0 t X i1 X i2 X ik β 1 β 2 β k Cox Cox 25 Singer Willett 25 84

5 1 1 Rockhill Population Attributable Fraction 26 ( ) HR PAF j = pd j - 1 j HR j PAF j pd j HR j Cox 2 2 Cox Cox Cox e = e = Cox Stata estat phtest 85

6 Cox *** ** * * ** *** *** *** *** *** * *** *** *** *** *** *** * ** ** ** * * *** *** *** *** ** * * * ** * * * *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** ** *

7 * ** * * * ** * ** BIC *** p < ** p < * p < p < Cox 1 1 Cox Cox Estat phtest e = e = BIC 2 3 BIC Cox Cox e = e = e = e =

8 Cox *** ** ** * * * * *** *** *** *** *** *** *** ** ** ** *** *** *** * * * ** * * * *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** ** * ***

9 * ** * *** * *** * *** BIC *** p < ** p < * p < p < % % % 3. 9% % % 1 65 CLHLS 2008 / /2012 Cox Cox

10 U Cox Cox 2. 9% 3. 9% Cox 1POST J D. Food shortageclimatic variabilityand epidemic disease in preindustrial Europe the mortality peak in the early 1740s M. Ithaca Cornell University Press HAYWARD A DHOLOPAINEN JPETTAY J ELUMMAA V. Food and fitness associations between crop yields and life-history traits in a longitudinally monitored pre-industrial human population J. Proceedings of the Royal Society B Biological Sciences POPKIN B M. The nutrition transition and obesity M/ /CAWLEY J. The Oxford Handbook of the Social Science of Obesity. New York Oxford University Press FOGEL R W. New findings on secular trends in nutrition and mortality some implications for population theory M/ /ROSENZWEIG M RSTARK O. Handbook of Population and Family Economics. Amsterdam Elsever Scence B.V J ROGERS RHUMMER RKRUEGER P. 90 The effect of obesity on overallcirculatory disease and diabetes-specific mortality J.

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