- Low Carbon Development and Emission Scenario in Shanghai, China - Using LEAP as an Integrated Energy and Environment Model Financially supported by Energy Foundation CHEN Changhong, WANG Bingyan, ZHAO Jing, DAI Yi Shanghai Academy of Environmental Sciences Beijing, China 2004 5 May, 2004
Outline 1. Background 2. Research Targets 3. Scenarios Analysis 4. Policy Recommendations
Energy and Environment Status in Shanghai Shanghai is a Chinese city with a robust economy, highest energy consumption per capita, but lacks energy and resources. 2002 GDP 5409 GDP 5000 GDP in 2002 was 540.9 billion Yuan, and GDP per capita was close to $5000.
Energy and Environment Status in Shanghai 2002 6050 4.5 ( 3.3 ) (1.0 ) 3~4 Total energy consumption in 2002 accounted for 60.5 million TCE, and energy use per capita was 4.5 TCE (except for floating population, nearly 3.3 TCE if floating population is counted), about 3-4 times the energy consumption per capita of China (1.0 TCE).
Comparison of Energy Economical Index Between Shanghai and Other Cities in China (in 2002) Beijing Tianjin Guangzhou Chongqing Shanghai GDP 3130 2051 3001 1971 5409 : : 3:36:61 4:50:46 3:41:56 16:42:42 2:47:51 1136 1007 721 3114 1334 4504 3022 2320 2742 6119 % 2 3 1 7 2 % 57 66 64 77 68 % 28 19 25 6 23 % 13 13 10 10 8 GDP / 1.4 1.5 0.8 1.4 1.1 2504 2285 4688 % 52 41 21 GDP / 0.27 0.27 0.32 0.03 0.96 / 0.15 0.21 0.74 / 3340 2469 5045 767 4915 / 4.0 3.0 3.2 0.9 4.5 E:\Changhong CHEN\ \ \Final\ _Final.doc
1. Economic Growth of Shanghai 6000 GDP 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 1952 1955 1958 1961 1964 1967 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 E:\Changhong CHEN\ \ \shanghai Energy 2.xls
3. Energy consumption 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 E:\Changhong CHEN\ \ \1990-2002.xls
4. Primary energy structure 1995 Natural Gas 0% Natural Gas 1% 2000 Crude Oil 32% Hard Coal 46% Crude Oil 34% Hard Coal 44% Coking Coal 22% Coking Coal 21% E:\Changhong CHEN\ \ \.xlss
Energy Intensity in Shanghai Relatively High Relatively low in Energy Efficiency Need Energy Structure Adjustment, Technical upgrade Relatively High in Energy Efficiency Energy Intensity Energy consumption per unit of GDP Shanghai=100 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 India Tianjiang Beijing China Shanghai Guangzhou HK UK Canada USA 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 GDP per capita Shanghai=100
5. SO 2 SO 2 Emission 60 50 SO2 Emission, 10kt 40 30 20 10 0 1981 1985 1990 1995 2000 2002 E:\Changhong CHEN\ \ \Shanghai Air Quality_01.xls
8. SO 2 Air quality comparison with Shanghai and European cities-so 2 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 Shanghai 2000 Shanghai 2002 Shanghai APEC 2001 Madrid (Spain) Athens (Greece) Rotterdam (Netherlands) Milano (Italy) Luxembourg Paris (France) Barcelona (Spain) Bruxelles (Belgium) London (UK) Region Lyon (France) Warsaw (Poland) Birmingham (UK) Liverpool (UK) Berlin (German) Vienna (Austria) Zurich (Switzerland) Hamburg (German) Frankfurt (German) Lisbon (Portugal) Goteborg (Sweden) Kobenhavn (Denmark) Stockholm (Sweden) 5 0 SO2, /
8. PM 10 Air quality comparison with Shanghai and European cities-pm 10 120 100 80 60 40 PM10, ug/m3 20 0,2000,2002 APEC 2001
Research Targets Study the benefits of low carbon development to reduce energy supply pressures, air pollutants emission control, and ambient air quality improvement. Finally advance policy recommendations for energy environment in Shanghai.
Tools and Models to be used for low carbon studies Health outcome & valuation Energy Model Population Exposure Geographic Information System (GIS) Air Quality Model
Works of Shanghai Integrated Energy and Environmental Model System Energy Model Energy Supply & Pollutant Emission Further Policy Request Health outcome & valuation Policy Cost Running CBAM Geographic Information System (GIS) Numbers of Population Expose to Certain Pollution Pollution Maps Population Exposure Emission Inventory Air Quality Projection Air Quality Model
Table 4-1 4-1 LEAP Definition of Scenarios in LEAP Shanghai LEAP Scenario 1 Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 2 COAL+GAS Scenario 3 Scenario 3 BAU Scenario 2-BAU ( ) EE S2_EE_only ( ) S2_COAL_GAS ELEC+WIND S2_ELEC_WIND SO2 PM LEAP Definition of Scenarios in LEAP Shanghai S2_ELEC_WIND_SO2a S2_EE_COAL_GAS_ELEC _WIND_SO2b S2_EE_COAL_GAS_ELEC _WIND_SO2b_PM + + ( ) + ( )+ + + + + + + + + ( S2_EE_COAL_GAS_ELEC ( SO2 + ) _WIND_SO2c_PM )
GDP Assumption of GDP growth rate 14 12 GDP, % 10 8 6 4 2 0 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
GDP GDP growth scenario 70000 Total GDP, 100 million RMB 60000 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 Growth Scenario 3 Growth Scenario 2 Growth Scenario 1
Medium and Long-term End Energy Demand in Shanghai 170 160 150 Pollutants: Final energy demand in final energy units: demand Scenario: Scenario 2-BAU, Fuel: All Fuels Transport Secondary Industry Residential Primary Industry Commerce 140 130 million tonne of coal equivalent 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Years
Medium and Long-term Primary Energy Demand in Shanghai Pollutants: Primary requirements: primary million tonne of coal equivalent 115 110 105 100 95 90 85 80 75 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Scenario: Scenario 2-BAU, Fuel: All Fuels 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Years Wind Natural Gas Hydrogen Hydro Hard Coal Crude Oil Coking Coal CNG Biomass (unspecified)
1,600 1,500 1,400 1,300 1,200 1,100 SO 2 Total SO 2 Emissions Pollutants: Environment Scenario: Scenario 2-BAU, Effects: Sulfur Dioxide Transformation Demand thousand tonne 1,000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Years
550 PM Total PM Emissions Pollutants: Environment Scenario: Scenario 2-BAU, Effects: Total Suspended Particulates Transformation Demand 500 450 400 thousand tonne 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Years
CO 2 Total CO 2 Emissions million tonne 420 400 380 360 340 320 300 280 260 240 220 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Pollutants: Global Warming Potential (CO2 equivalent) Scenario: Scenario 2-BAU, GWP: All GWPs 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Years Transformation Demand
Low Carbon Development Scenarios and Air Pollutants Emissions Scenarios
Comprehensive Scenarios A B C1 C2 D1 D2 E F G H BAU EE EE+COAL EE+COAL+GAS EE+COAL+GAS+ELEC EE+COAL+GAS+ELEC+WIND EE+COAL+GAS+ELEC+WIND+SO2a EE+COAL+GAS+ELEC+WIND+SO2b EE+COAL+GAS+ELEC+WIND+SO2b+PM EE+COAL+GAS+ELEC+WIND+SO2c+PM
Primary Energy Demand 7000 Total energy demand, PJ 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 A B C1 C2 D1 D2 E F G H E:\Changhong CHEN\ \ \ \ \ _.xls
SO 2 SO 2 Emissions 1800 1600 1400 SO2 Emission, kt 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 A B C1 C2 D1 D2 E F G H E:\Changhong CHEN\ \ \ _ _new_update.xls
PM Emissions 700 600 500 PM Emission, kt 400 300 200 100 0 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 A B C1 C2 D1 D2 E F G H E:\Changhong CHEN\ \ \ _ _new_update.xls
CO 2 CO 2 Emissions 350 300 Relative Emission of CO2, % 250 200 150 100 50 0 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 A B C1 C2 D1 D2 E F G H E:\Changhong CHEN\ \ \ _ _new_update.xls
30.655º South to 31.855º North latitude 121.983º East to 120.814º West longitude 6341 km 2 of Shanghai is covered by 924 grids of 32 28
Transfer Matrix Model LEAP Transfer Matrix Emission Turns to emission produced by to air quality LEAP GIS GIS system Counting Population Exposed some level of air pollution 4 4km Quicker/More Efficient Annual average SO2/Primary PM10 Health Impact Studies
Example of PM 10 forecast PM 10 EE+COAL+GAS+ELEC+WIND+SO2b+PM 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Exposure Level 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 / 2000 2010 2020 BAU B C D F H E:\Changhong CHEN\ \ \ \ \ _Final_01.doc
Air pollution exposure level and response E:\Changhong CHEN\ \ \ \ \ _Final_01.doc
2010 BAU Results: Health Benefits of Various Low Carbon Development Scenarios Compared with BAU Scenario in 2010 EE GAS WIND SO 2 b SO 2 c 2804 7452 8249 11470 11580 5828 15450 17100 23740 23960 1570 4269 4745 6710 6774 796 2169 2412 3417 3450 111300 304600 339000 481900 486500 11540 31590 35150 49960 50450 186100 493700 546400 758900 765700 3652 9585 10590 14590 14720
2010 BC Results Economy Benefits of Various Low Carbon Development Scenarios Compared with BAU Scenario in 2010 Million USD EE GAS WIND SO 2 b SO 2 c 450.40 1197.00 1325.00 1842.00 1860.00 49.45 133.10 144.90 201.50 205.40 1.65 4.49 4.99 7.05 7.12 1.23 3.35 3.72 5.28 5.33 2.31 6.31 7.03 9.99 10.08 0.24 0.65 0.73 1.04 1.05 2.00 5.32 5.88 8.17 8.22 0.03 0.08 0.08 0.11 0.12 507.31 1350.30 1492.33 2075.13 2097.30 GDP 0.39-1.61
Main Conclusion and Policy Recommendations 1. Coal is the primary energy source. The structure is not reasonable. 2. The proportion for coal fired emissions is still very high. The mode of energy use needs further adjustment. 3. There is still a great disparity of ambient air quality between Shanghai and cities in Europe and USA. 4. With the development of economy, energy demand and air pollutants emissions in Shanghai will keep on increasing if there is no further control measure are enacted.
Main Conclusion and Policy Recommendations 5. As a new develop mode, low carbon development will do benefit on the harmonious development among economy promotion, energy construction and environmental protection and has a remarkable effect on health economics.
Policy Recommendations Emission CAP GDP TPES Emission = ( 1 ER) CAP GDP TPES
Policy Recommendations GDP 2010 35PJ-50PJ 150 200 2000 2%-3% Positively advocate energy saving If the energy consumption per GDP in Shanghai drops one percent, total energy use in 2010 can reduce 35PJ-50PJ (nearly 1.5 million-200 million TCE), is 2%-3% of total energy consumption in 2000.
Policy Recommendations 2004 1 1 GDP Better utilize natural gas from western China, and shift to the low carbon energy ecnomics Gas supply to the commercial in Shanghai in Jan 1st, 2004 is a great chance for Shanghai to advance its low carbon development. Shanghai should efficiently hold the advantaged phases of Western China Development, transferring natural gas from West to the East and transporting electricity from West to the East to transit traditional economical development to the low carbon. Directed as low carbon energy structure adjustment, bodied as product structure regulation, Enforcing the structural adjustment within industry will reduce the local air pollutants and CO 2 emission by the adjustment the structures of industry, products and energy.
Policy Recommendations 2000 23% 10% BAU SO 2 PM CO 2 Reduction of direct coal burning on the end End coal consumption in 2000 took up 23% of the total. Due to the relatively low combustion efficiency of coal burning boiler on the end pipe, the efficiency of single boiler is only 10%, which not only reduces the efficiency of energy system as a whole, increases the business cost of producing activities, but also causes air pollution around the factories. Compared with BAU scenario, SO 2 and PM emissions will decrease, growth rate of CO 2 emission will be mitigated and remarkable health economical benefit will be done if only one measure of low carbon energy substitute to the coal burning boilers.
Policy Recommendations 300 Develop renewable energies There are nearly 3 million t stalks produced every year in rural area in Shanghai. Besides the amount returned to crops and mixed with dejecta to adjust the carbon nitrogen ratio of organic fertilizers, the number used as energy is a little. So comprehensive utilize of stalks should be one of the most important components of renewable energies in Shanghai
Policy Recommendations CDM Energetically develop clean energies, introduce advanced energy transformation technology and upgrade system energy efficiency Introduce advanced energy technology, alter traditional energy use, upgrade energy efficiency by CDM mechanism Levy environmental tax for high pollution and carbon emission Internalize the external cost and levy environmental tax