2015 5 30 ( 131 ) SOUTH CHINA POPULATION No.5 2015 Vol. 30 General No. 131 (, /, 200241) [ ], 2002,,, [ ] ; ; ; [ ] C92-05 [ ] A [ ] 1004-1613 (2015) 05-0032-12 21 :, (, 2006;, 2007;, 2011;, 2010;, 2007;, 2011),, (, 2007;, 2009),,, ;, ;,,,???? *[ ] 2015-05-15 [ ],, / ;,, /, 32
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2015 5, n+1 D i (X) D i (X)=D i (X)+D n+1 (X) * S i(x) n ΣS i (X) j=i (1) D i (E) S 1 (E), 1 S i (X) D i (X) S i (X)=S i (X) * S i(e) n+1 ΣS i (X) j=1 D i (X)=D i (X) * D 1 (E) n+1 ΣD i (E) j=1 (2) (2), D i (X) S i (X) p i (X), p i >1, ; p i (X) <1, p i (X)= D 1 (X) S i (X) (3) ( 1), 4 : ( ) (2002 ~2004 ) 20 70 80,,, 90 1.5 1.8 (, 2000) 21, 34
2002, 2003 9 1, 10, 2, 11 SARS, 3 2004, 0.9,, ( ) (2004 ~2008 ),, 2004,, 2004 7 15, 20 4,,, 10%, 2004 2.1 1.18 1.15 (, 2004) 2004,,, 2006 2008, 2005 2007 2008 1 ( 1),, 1,. :.. 2003-9-30,http: / / www.southcn.com / news / dishi / jiangmen / ttxw / 200309300467.htm. 2,. 28.. 2003-10-13, http: / / news.xinhuanet. com / newscenter / 2003-10 / 13 / content_1121255.htm. 3. :. 21. 2003-11-11,http: / / finance.sina. com.cn / crz / 20031111 / 1523514223.shtml. 4. 20.. 2004-7-15,http: / / www.southcn.com / weekend / top / 200407150009.htm. 35
2015 5 ( ) (2008 ~2009 ), 2008 2009 1 2000, 15% 0.9, 2009, 0.93 2003, ( 1) ( ) ( 2009 ~ ) 1 2003~2014 :, (1) (4),, 4, 4000, 2010,,, 2012 50 60 5 2012 1 100 80, 20 6 2009 1 1.15 ( 1) 5,. : 60.21. 2012-2-4, http: / / www.21cbh. com / HTML / 2012-2-4 / 5NMDY5XzM5OTE5Ng.html. 6... 2012-2-2,http: / / www.chinanews.com / tp / 2012 / 02-02 / 3639640.shtml. 36
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2015 5 5 2008~2014 :, (2) ~ (4) 6 2003~2013 :, (2) ~ (4), 1 ( 5) : 1 ( 2009.3 ~ 2011.3): 2 (2011.4~2012.3): 3 (2012.4~2014.1): ( ) :, 1 ( 6), 40
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2015 5, (2),,,, ( ), (1) (, 2005),,, (2),, [ ] [1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11]. [J].,2006(1).,,,. [J].,2007(7).. [D].,2011.,. [J]. ( ),2007(4).. [J].,2010(10).,. [J].,2011(1). ( ). NO.8: [R]. :, 2007.. : [J]. ( ),2009(6).. [J].,2005(3).. [N]. 21,2004.. [J].,2010(4). 42
[12]. [J].,2008(9). [13] [14] [15] [16] [17] [18],. [J].,2008(4).. [J].,2006(9).,. [J].,2006(5).,. [J].,2007(4).,. [M]. :,2005.,. [J].,2006(2). [19]. 21 [J].,2000(5). [20]. [J].,2004(11). [21] [22]. 2006 2007. 2007-3- 8, http: / / www.mohrss.gov.cn / SYrlzyhshbzb / zwgk / szrs / qttjcl / 200703 / t20070308_66203.htm.,. [J].,2005(2). [23]. [J].,2008,(12). [24]. [J]. ( ),2008(7). [25]. [J].,2005(2). [26]. -- [J].,2006(2). [27]. -- 10 [J].,2008(4). The Evolution and Characteristics of Labor Shortage in China: A Perspective of Labor Market Supply and Demand HU Yan-qing, QING Shi-song The Center for Chinese Modern City Studies,East China Normal University,Shanghai 200241 Abstract:Based on the the data of quarterly labor market supply and demand from Human Resources Market Information Monitoring Center, the paper analyzes the migrant workers' supply and demand since 2002. The Labor Shortage in China can be divided into 4 stages: the occurence, the first wave, the reprieve, the second wave. The first wave shows a characteristics of structural labor shortage such as the shortage of young workers, female workers, skilled workers and seasonal shortage in east coast area, while the second wave shows a labor shortage of both young and middle-aged workers, both male and female workers, both unskilled and skilled workers all year in all the country. puts forward some corresponding countermeasures and suggestions. Key words: Labor Shortage, Migrant workers, Labor market supply and demand At last the paper 43