2020 12% Wind Force 12 Wind Force 12Wind Force 12 Wind Force 12 Wind Force 12 Wind Force 12 Wind Force 12 12 / /

(CIP) 12 2020 12%, 2004.5 ISBN 7-80163-846-8.............TM614 CIP 2004 038340 12 2020 12% / / PETITJEAN, WINTER, GE Energy-Wind Segment : : : 16 (100062) : 010-67112738 : 010-67113420 2004 5 1 2004 5 1 889 1194 1/16 : 105 3000 4.5 50.00

CONTENTS 12 1 1 2 2 3 3 5 6 8 14 17 22 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 12% 40 2020 12% 46 2020 12% 52 56 62 1 66 2 68

12 12: 2020 12 12 : 2020 : 12 1

1 21 12 : 2020 12.31 1.5 12 20 2020 12: 2020 12 20 2

2 / / 1996 30%, 20 80 20 1998 5 2000 15.4 t 4 /kw h 1991 2000 [1] 15.8 400 kw, 1997 479 kw, 80% 2000 800 kw 1363 kw 20% 19 2010 2020 4000 kw 1 kw 12 Wind Force 12 21 12 1997 6 2010 12 2020 20 2050 50 2020 12 2002 2007 : (1) 25, 2008 2012 20, 2013 2016 (2) (3) 15 2017 2020 10 2010 ; (4) 5 2.3 kw 5120 kw h 2020 6 12.6 kw 3.1 kw h 2020 12 1 2002 IEA 3

: (1) ; (2) ; (3) ; (4) ; : (5) ; (6) ; (7) : : (1) ; (2) ; (3) ; (4) 12 2002 40 kw 10 55% 2010 30 2010 400 kw 2010 2020 20 2020 2000 kw 4

5 12 (Wind Force 12) 3 Margot Wallstrom 12 90% 2002 (Johannesburg Renewable Energy Coalition) 80

(Corin Millais) (Sven Teske) 12 2020 12% 2/3 2020 750 20 2002 80 20 12 20 200 ; 6

12 (Wind Force 12) 7

12 (Wind Force 12) 2020 12% 1999 10 2002 5 12 30%; 2002 7 000 MW 70 2003 32 000MW 1 600 8

4 000 74% 50 9 2 000 kw(20 000MW) 10 53 kw h(53 000TW h) 2020 1997 K yoto Protocol 5 2020 20% ( IEA) 5 2002 IEA 2020 20% 25.578 kw h (25 578 TW h) 12% 2020 3 kw h 2 500kW (3 000 TW h) 4 000kW 1993 (OECD) (International Energy Agency 9

12 OECD 50 20 12% : 20 25 2008 25 2008 5 1.33746 kw(133 746MW) 36 ; 2013 15 ; 2018 10 2009 2014 20% 2013 4.62253 kw(462 253MW) 15 2018 10 2020 curve theory) 12 kw(120 20 MW) 3 kw h 2010 0.85 0.90 2026 (3 000TW h) 12% 1.0 (Industrial learning 2020 1.5149 kw(151 490MW) 10 2040 31 1MW 2008 kw(3 100GW) 22 1.3MW 2013 1.5MW 10

40 16 19 12 12 2020 179 2003 72 2020 752 2020 12 kw(1 200GW) 6 740 20 90 100 1 580 1 860 kw h(1gwh) 600t 2020 18.13 t 2040 2040 859.11 t 2002 48.6 t; 2020, 109.21 t, 832 3.88 623 2010 2.93 2020 497 kw 1 ; 2.34 kw h 2002 2 11

2.1 2.2 3 3.1 3.2 ; 1 2 (Export Credit Agencies ECAs) (Multilateral Development Banks MDBs) (International Finance Institutions IFIs) 12

12 (Wind Force 12) 13

12 (Wind Force 12) BTM 20 12 12 12 12?? 1998 BTM Danish Forum for Energy & Development FED) FED (European Wind Energy Association EWEA) 1999 10 2002 12 14

(1998) 23 10 10 (1999) (IEA)1998 2002 2020 1 2002 12 25 579TW h 25.878 kw h 25 878TW h) IEA 2000 1998/1999 2005 3 10 ( 5-6a) 2004 2015 2020 12 12 (2003) 25 20 15 2002 2040 12 2020 12 5 1.5 kw(150 000MW) 36 (capacity factor), 2040 3 25 24 2002 2000 2020 25.579 kw h 2002 20 2020 30 kw(3 000GW) 15

2020 2020 BTM 16

10 1999 2-1 1997 2002 / MW (%) / MW (%) 1997 1568 7636 1998 2597 66 10153 33 1999 3922 51 13932 37 2000 4495 15 18449 32 2001 6824 52 24927 35 5 2002 7227 6 32037 29 5 35. 7 33. 2 33 2-1 35.7 2002 720 kw(7 200MW) 2002 70 2002 4.7 2010 3200 kw(32 000MW) 1 600 8 4 000 74, 2002 85 ; 2002 150 kw(1 500MW) 50 9 10 7 8 324.7 kw(3 247MW) 1 200 kw(12 000MW) 18 17

8 170 kw(1 700MW) 2005 120 kw(1 200MW) 15 kw(150mw) 50 kw(500mw) 467.4 kw(4 674MW) 27 kw(270mw) 100 kw(1 000MW) 1997 2008 2012 5.2 1990 2002 1 18.9 kw(189mw) 5 kw(50mw), 2 46 kw (460MW) IPCC 5.8 170 kw(1 700MW)15 20 90 1997 14 2010 22 2002 18

2-2 2002 / MW 3247 2002 / MW 11968 1493 5043 530 429 220 219 2880 4674 1702 727 129 119 106 486 189 806 104 462 632 3100 7227 32037 5 20% 5 20 2 300 2 800 ; (Windpower monthly) 7m/s 700 2 300 2 800 19

3 2-1999 2000 2001 2002 2001-2002 3 /MW /MW /MW /MW (%) (%) 4442 6107 8734 11968 37. 0 39. 2 1812 2836 3550 5043 42. 1 40. 7 2445 2610 4245 4674 10. 1 24. 1 1738 2341 2456 2880 17. 3 18. 3 1035 1220 1456 1702 16. 9 18. 0 277 424 700 806 15. 1 42. 7 433 473 523 727 39. 0 18. 9 362 425 525 570 8. 7 16. 4 68 142 357 486 36. 1 92. 7 262 352 406 473 16. 5 21. 8 12 874 16 929 22 952 29 329 27. 8 31. 6 65 2 000kW 200 20 80 20 25kW 600 2 500kW 2002,, 1 390kW 2 000kW, 200 20 80 2 500kW 80m 70 100m 1 600 20

3 000 5 000 2003 Enercon 4 500kW 112m 20 25 3% 5% 50 10 21

12 (Wind Force 12) 20 90 2002 1 200 kw(12 000MW) 8 200 4.7 2010 8 2002 2 300 324.7 kw(3 247MW), 2001 20 90 3 37 10 1970 6.5TW h, 10 2000 11TW h 22

- (Schleswig-Holstein) Enercon Vestas 25 Deutschland Nordex GE Wind 2010 4.5 1/5 2002 2002 (Lower Saxony) 35 14 20 80 1991 (Stromeinspeisungsgesetz/Electricity Feed Law EFL) 90 (North- Rhine Westphalia) 2001 144.5 kw (1 445MW) - (Saxony- Anhalt) 129.4 kw(1 294MW) 2000 EFL (Brandenburg) 127.2 kw(1 272MW) 5 4.5 1/5 2002 23

30 19 2025 25 (North and Baltic Seas) 20 90 2010 27 2 300 kw(23 000MW) 2002 8 467.4 kw(4 674MW) 130 2003 5 (1998 2002) 24.5 10 /MW PacifiCorp 2004 2014 400 kw 4 000MW 140 kw (1 400MW) FPL Energy 24

PTC 5 1999 (Renewable Portfolio (North Dakota) Standards RPS) 50 100 kw(1 000MW) 2012 25 RPS PTC 2003 1 (wind rights) (RPS) 2003 2 11 RPS (federal production tax credit PTC) 1.5 1992 PTC 25

20 2 (North Dakota) 50 170.2 kw (1 702MW) 3 62.5 kw (625MW) /MW (The Ministry of Non-Conventional Energy Sources MNES) 10 4 500 kw(45 000MW) MNES 26

2002 10 BTM : 2007 100 400 kw(4 000MW) 70 Vestas RRB 20 80 Suzlon 800 1MW (Tamil Nadu) (Maharashtra) (Gujarat) (Andhra Pradesh) /MW 27

20 80 30 15 1981 2000 10 Vestas NEG Micon Bonus 6 20 15kW 10% 1981 5 000 2 230kW 21 2005 20 1988 2030 50 1/3 9 1994 36.8 kw (368MW) 2002 310 kw(3 100MW) 2030 1/3 550 kw(5 500MW) 2002 28

50 kw(500mw) 15 288 kw(2 880MW) (Copenhagen) 4 kw(40mw) 20 8 500 20 80 2008 75 kw (750MW) (Horns Rev)16 kw(160mw) 2002 ; (Roedby Sand)16 kw(160mw) 2003 80 /MW 29

(Electricity Feed Law) 1998 80 90 2003 6.2 kw h 1993 5.2 kw (52MW) (Tarifa) 2001 355 kw(3 550MW) 30 2002 504.3 kw(5 043MW) (Galicia) (Aragon) (Navarre) (Castilla la Mancha) (Navarra) (Castilla la Mancha) 1998 2010 12 10 2010 400 kw(4 000MW) 55 140 1994 5 30

2002 5 043MW 70% 2002 1 315MW 30% 2002 689MW 1 536MW (Energia Hidroelectrica de Navarra EHN) 2011 14 30 000MW (Catalonia) /MW (Spanish Renewable Energy Association,APPA) 31

2 MW 28 kw(280mw) 2002 (Horns Rev) 14 20km 2MW 80 16 kw(160mw) 2 2003 2 000 kw(20 000MW) (Baltic) (Rodsand) 60m 8m/s 1 200 kw(12 000MW) 20 40 60km 35m (national maritime authority) (Borkum) 100 kw(1 000MW) 2025, 25 000MW 15% : 2025 100 kw(1 000MW) 2 500 kw(25 000MW) 32

15 ( Nantucket) 42 kw(420mw) 2006 9 5 2003 The World Offshore Renewable Energy Report 8.6 kw(86mw) 2007 120 10 kw(100mw) ; 2010 52 kw 1 700 kw (520MW) 18 (17 000MW) 150 (1 500MW); 6 kw(60mw) 2003 15 km 2 35m (Massachusetts) 33

12 (Wind Force 12) 10m 5 5.5m/s 90 ( TW h) 5m/s 53 kw h(53 000TW h) 2020 25.578 kw h(25 578TW h) 2 34

1993 (Utrecht University) 3-1 Grubb&Meyer OECD 1 240 kw h(124tw h) 6 400 kw(64 000MW) 3-1 240 kw h(24tw h) 5 3-1 3-1 6 000 kw h(600 20 TW h) (penetration limit) 1993 250 300kW 1993 1995 1 000kW Joule Garrad Hassan 30m 100m Germanischer Lloyd 3.028 kw h(3 028 TW h) 53 000 4 800 4 800 10 600 4 600 5 400 14 000 3 000 10 600 14 000 3 000 14 000 10 600 4 600 5 400 3-1 ( :TW h) 35

15 1997 Garrad Hassan 2020 21 40m 30km 10 6MW 100m 1km BTM 3-2 (World Energy Council) (International Energy Agency IEA) IEA (2002) IEA 2020 25.578 kw h(25 578TW h) 2002 63 20m 2030 1 IEA 2020 (2000) 10km 90% IEA 1990 10 20km IEA ; 20 30km (2000) 3136 kw h(313.6tw h) 10(1999) 10% 10 9 400 kw h(940tw h) 12 36

3-3 IEA 2002 3-4 2020 20 3-5 40 20 12% 20 20% 1 3-15 /(TW h ) a 20 ( GW) 20% 60 3(1.5) 3 82 5(2.5) 5 31 10(4.5) 6. 2 3. 8 66 7(3.5) 7 491 85(42.5) 85 534 24(12) 24 379 114(57) 75. 8 38. 2 41 44(22) 8. 2 (?) 17 44(22) 3. 4 40. 6 207 69(34.5) 41. 4 27. 6 1 0 89 7(3.5) 7 32 15(7.5) 6. 4 8. 6 178 86(43) 35. 6 50. 4 176 41(20.5) 35. 2 22. 8 116 76(37) 23. 2 12 874 16 926 22 952 29 329 BTM, 1993, Wijk & Coelingh 1. 1989 OECD/IEA 3%, 1995 IEA (1998) 1995 OECD 2,678TW h 2. 37

2 3- TW h a / m 10km 20km 30km 20 551 587 596 1121 1402 1523 30 1597 2192 2463 40 1852 2 615 3028 Garrad Hassan & Germanischer Lloyd 1995 3 3-2000 /(TW h/a) 2010 /(TW h/a) 2020 /(TW h/a) 2000-2020 (%) OECD 3164 3763 4339 1. 6 OECD 4813 5758 6702 1. 7 OECD 1622 2003 2317 1. 8 804 1135 1566 3. 4 585 970 1461 4. 7 635 1001 1505 4. 4 1387 2282 3461 4. 7 462 675 899 3. 4 1484 1765 2238 1. 8 435 684 1091 4. 7 15 391 20036 25579 2. 6 2000 /(TW h/a) 4 3-2020 % /(TW h/a) /(TW h/a) 2020 20% (%) OECD 4339 867 630 313 1.04 OECD 6702 1340 14000 10.44 OECD 2317 463 3600 7.78 1566 313 5400 17.25 1461 292 4600 3.58 1505 301 4600 3.58 3461 692 4600 3.58 899 180 N/ a 2238 448 10600 23.66 1091 218 10600 48.62 25 579 5114 49743 9.53 IEA 2002 3-1 38

50 20% 2030 50 3-4 2020 20 5 3- ( IEA 2002 ) (%) / TW h / TW h (%) 2002 16233 54. 5 0.40 2003 16666 86. 3 0.52 2004 17110 110. 0 0.64 2005 17567 139. 8 0.80 2.67 2006 18035 184. 2 1.02 2007 18516 232. 5 1.26 2008 19010 292. 9 1.54 2009 19517 365. 4 1.87 2010 20037 452. 3 2.26 2011 20532 556. 6 2.71 2012 21040 763. 6 3.63 2013 21560 931. 9 4.32 2014 22093 1133. 8 5.13 2.47 2015 22639 1366. 0 6.03 2016 23198 1 633. 0 7.04 2017 23771 1 940. 1 8.16 2018 24359 2 277. 9 9.35 2019 24961 2 649. 5 10.61 2020 25578 3 021. 1 11.81 2021 26118 3 392. 7 12.99 2022 26670 3 764. 2 14.11 2023 27233 4 135. 8 15.19 2024 27808 4 507. 4 16.21 2.11 2025 28396 4 844. 3 17.06 2026 28996 5 172. 6 17.84 2027 29608 5 490. 1 18.54 2028 30233 5 794. 1 19.16 2029 30872 6084. 5 19.71 2030 31524 6358. 7 20.17 2031 31997 6613. 4 20.67 2032 32477 6844. 8 21.08 2033 32964 7048. 1 21.38 2034 33458 7217. 8 21.57 2035 33960 7357. 1 21.66 1.50 2036 34470 7994. 6 23.19 2037 34987 8063. 7 23.05 2038 35512 8099. 9 22.81 2039 36044 8099. 9 22.47 2040 36585 8099. 9 22.14 2041 37134 8099. 9 21.81 39

12 (Wind Force 12) 12% 12 4-1 12% 2002 3 200 kw(32 000MW) 2002 722.7 kw(7 227MW) 2003 2008 25 2008 1.33746 kw(133 746MW) 2009 2020 12.31 kw(1 231GW) IEA 12% 10 2030 20 2020 1.515 kw(151 500MW) S 30 40 30 kw (3 000GW ) 40

20 6 25 (repowering) kw(27 569MW) 2009 2008, 2 756.9 2025 2040 20 2015 15 2018 10 2020 1.5149 kw(151 490MW) 2003 (learning rate) 830 3.88 2003 1 20 180 20 0.8 (R&D) 15 20 0.85 0.80 : 20% 25% 0.85 2010 0.90 2025 1.0 1993 1998 10 40 1999 2002 31 41

5MW 4-2 6 (Capacity factor) 1997 23 1 12 10 1MW 1.5MW 10 (%) 1 4-12% 2 020 /MW /MW / TW h / TW h (%) 2002 25 7227 32037 64. 5 16233 0.40 2003 25 9034 41071 86. 3 16666 0.52 2004 25 11292 52363 110. 1 17110 0.64 2005 25 14115 66478 139. 8 17567 0.80 2006 25 17644 84122 184. 2 18035 1.02 2007 25 22055 106177 232. 5 18156 1.26 2008 25 27569 133746 292. 9 19010 1.54 2009 20 33083 166829 365. 4 1517 1.87 2010 20 39699 206528 452. 3 20037 2.26 2011 20 47639 254167 556. 6 20532 2.71 2012 20 57167 311333 763. 6 21040 3.63 2013 20 68600 379933 931. 9 21560 4.32 2014 20 82320 462253 1133. 8 22093 5.13 2015 15 94668 556922 1366. 0 22639 6.03 2016 15 108868 665790 1633. 0 23198 7.04 2017 15 125199 790988 1940. 1 23771 8.16 2018 10 137718 928707 2277. 9 24359 9.35 2019 10 151490 1080197 2649. 5 24961 10.61 2020 0 151490 1231687 3021. 1 25578 11.81 2030 0 151490 2592424 6358. 7 31524 20.17 2040 0 151490 3082167 8099. 9 36585 22.14 42

2 4- / kw 1997 472 560 623 279 422 550 514 707 1998 636 687 783 283 504 590 615 723 1999 610 750 919 283 589 775 617 720 2000 600 931 1101 401 648 802 795 686 2001 681 850 1281 441 721 1000 941 908 2002 709 1443 1397 553 845 1112 843 893 2006, 25 10 2012 28 12 2.5MW 20 16 19 1960 100 kw(1 000MW) 1997 3.43 kw(343 000MW) 12 1950 4 500 kw(45 000MW) 1996 50 7.14602 kw(714 602MW) (R&D 40 50 43

OECD 1998 IIASA 1981 1992 0.80 1982 1987 0. 80 100 kw(1 000MW) 0.80 1963-1980 0.9 9 000 kw(90 000MW) 12% 12 2020 12.31 kw(1 231GW)2020 12 kw(1 200GW) 4-3 3 4-2 020 % 12 IEA 2020 1200GW /GW 2020 1200GW (%) 2020 / TW h OECD 230 19. 2 4339 OECD ( 250 000) 310 25. 8 6702 ( 60 000) OECD 90 7. 5 2317 100 8. 3 1566 70 5. 8 1461 50 4. 2 1505 170 14. 2 3461 25 2. 1 899 130 10. 8 2238 25 2. 1 1091 1200 100 25579 44

12 (Wind Force 12) 45

12 (Wind Force 12) 2020 12% 2003 70 2020 750 2020 12.31 kw(1 231GW) 2002 6 740 20 20 90 1 580 1 860 2020 20 5-1 2020 12 2002 823 2020 504 39 4-3 5-2 21 20 5-3 46

5-1 2020 12% / ( / kw) / 10 / 10 2002 7227 823 5947 5947 141505 2003 9034 797 7198 13145 171286 2004 11292 770 8690 21834 206780 2005 14115 746 10525 32360 250460 2006 17644 721 12714 45074 302543 2007 22055 695 15319 60393 364528 2008 27569 670 18466 78859 439416 2009 33083 645 21349 100208 508025 2010 39699 623 24725 124933 588348 2011 47639 608 28973 153906 689430 2012 57167 594 33930 187836 807402 2013 68600 580 39777 227613 946532 2014 82320 566 46601 274214 1108924 2015 94668 553 52342 362556 1245524 2016 108868 540 58809 385365 1399406 2017 125199 528 66093 451458 1572732 2018 137718 516 71131 522589 1692633 2019 151490 506 76 627 599216 1823416 2020 151490 497 75233 674449 1790233 2002 RIS (RIS National Research Laboratory) 823 ; 1981 4.04 /kw h 1995 15.8 /kw h 5.7 /kw h 2/3 1 1 000kW(1MW) 2005 500kW 1.5MW 2.5MW 5 20 1.2MW 2010 1.4MW 2 2011 0.85 47

0.90 (decommissioning) (R&D) 3 23 2 2.5 2012 28 4 /kw h, 2010 3 /kw h 628 /kw 20 (combined cycle gas generation) 2020 2.34 /kw h 497 /kw 5-2 2001 2 020 / ( kw) 2003-2006 751 2007-2011 640 2011-2017 554 2018-2020 505 533 548 557 2020 180 5-1 12 2003 1 7m/s 700 /kw 20 48

3 5-2 020 2020 /MW /( /kw) OECD 230 000 2020 / 10 OECD 310 000 557 175. 2 OECE 90 000 50. 8 2006 100000 55.5 555 2006 70000 38. 8 2004 50000 28.0 560 2004 170000 95. 2 2006 25000 13.6 2006 130000 545 70. 9 2006 25000 13. 6 1200000 669. 7 128.1 (1998) 1MW 17 1996 1MW 5 (DWTMA) 1998 1 000 /kw DWTMA 100 22( 17+5) 12 50 12% 5-6a b 2005 2010 2015 2020 2005 2020 49

(MW) 5-6b OECD : 2020, 180 5-6b : 14.1 9 10 12 : 9 10 5-6a 5 14.1 5 12 4-1 5-6a 5 2005 2010 2015 /( M W/ a) /( M W/ a) /( M W/ a) 2020 /( M W/ a) OECD 8000 10000 14000 15000 OECD 3000 10000 23000 30000 OECE 1000 3000 8000 10000 500 3200 7500 15000 100 1000 4500 10000 600 3200 7500 16500 500 5000 13000 27000 100 600 1700 3000 200 3000 13000 22000 100 700 2500 3000 14 100 39700 94700 151500 ( 4.1) 14115 39699 94668 151490 - W / M 17. 7 14. 8 13. 1 11. 8 50

5-6b 5 x1000 2005 2010 2015 2020 OECD 141. 6 148. 0 170. 3 177. 0 OECD 53. 1 148. 0 288. 2 354. 0 OECE 17. 7 44. 4 104. 8 118. 0 8. 9 47. 4 85. 2 177. 0 1. 8 14. 8 59. 0 118. 0 10. 6 47. 4 85. 2 194. 7 8. 9 74. 0 170. 3 318. 6 1. 8 8. 9 22. 3 47. 2 3. 5 44. 4 170. 3 259. 6 1. 8 10. 4 32. 8 37. 8 250. 5 588. 3 1 245. 5 1 790. 2 ( 4.1) 14 115 39 699 94 668 151 490 W M 17. 7 14. 8 13. 1 11. 8 51

12 (Wind Force 12) 2020 12% 3 4 20 CO 2 CO 2 CO 2 6-1 20 100 kw h(1gw h) 600t CO 2 20 50 OECD OECD CO 2 12 CO 2 * CO 2 2002 3 870 t 2020 18.13 t * 2010 CO 2 11.57 t * 2020 CO 2 109.21 t * 2040 CO 2 48.6 t 859.11 t 52

25 2012 2036 28 30 2 000h 2 500 2 600h 3 000 4 000h 30 12 (embedded generation) [1] CO 2 CO 2 2044 : 2020 CO 2 109 t Extern E CO 2 10 15 2001 CO 2 0.2 0.7 /kw h 1 4 /kw h CO 2 2 15 /kw h 0 0.25 /kw h 3 11 /kw h 30 1 30 1 53

(decommissioning) 1 6- CO 2 ( t/gw ) h 751 2 96 726 428 600 WEC EWE A 1998 54

12 (Wind Force 12) 55

12 (Wind Force 12) 20 12% 4 30 56

1 2001 (Renewable Energy Directive) 1.2.1 2010 ( 6% 12 ) 1 22 7-1 1 7-2010 1997 2010 (biomass) 70. 0 78. 1 1. 1 6. 0 8. 7 29. 0 4. 5 12. 5 8. 6 20. 1 5 15. 0 21. 0 10 3. 6 13. 2 16. 0 25. 0 2. 1 5. 7 3. 5 9. 0 38. 5 39. 0 24. 7 31. 5 49. 1 60. 0 1.1 19. 9 29. 4 1. 7 10. 0 13.95 22. 1 57

1.2.3 15 1.2.2 (Renewable Portfolio Standards RPS) RPS ( ) RPS 1.2.4 RPS RPS 58

3.1 1.2.5 kw 20 80 RPS 2 * * * * * * * 3 59

3.2 G8 3.2.2 3.2.1 3 2 500 3 000 (The Worldwatch Institute) 630 (the Price-Anderson Act) 210 7 34 2003 5 2003 33 1998 OECD 1 2001 (G8) (carbon-constrained economies) 60

ECA ECAs 2 (Export Credit Agencies ECAs) (Multi-lateral Development Banks MDBs) (International Finance Institutions IFIs) * * ECAs (IFI) 1. 2 3 3.1 ; 3.2 G8 ECAs IFI 1. 2. (Export Credit Agencies ECAs) (Multi-lateral Development Banks MDBs) (International Finance Institutions IFIs) G8 G8 ECAs 61

62

2020 /GW /(TW h/a) 2 2020 2020 O C 2 2020 / 10 6 (%) /(10 t/a) /a(x1000) OECD 230 564. 0 13 129. 9 338. 4 177. 0 OECD 310 760. 1 11. 3 175. 2 456. 1 354. 0-250 ( 613.0) ( 13) ( 140.2) ( 367.8) (283.0) OECD 90 220. 7 9. 5 50. 8 132. 4 118. 0 70 000MW 100 245. 2 15. 7 61. 0 147. 1 177. 0 +10% 70 171. 7 11. 7 42. 7 133. 9 141. 6 50 122. 6 8. 1 30. 8 95. 6 233. 6 170 416. 9 12. 104. 7 325. 2 382. 3 +20 +10% CO 2 : +30% 25 61. 3 6. 8 13. 6 36. 8 47. 2 130 318. 9 14. 2 78. 0 229. 6 311. 5 25 61. 3 5. 6 15. 0 36. 8 37. 8 1200 3021. 1 11.81 702. 6 1931. 9 1980 +20 +10% CO 2 : +20% IEA OECD 15 OECD OECD 63

( /kw h)=a (X1X0)-b 2003 2 20 1 =0.9328 1 =6.94 1 7.43 64

65

12 (Wind Force 12) 66 20 21 12 21 2003 1 10, 1000MW 6000MW

5 1 6 2 3 10 4 12 67

12 (Wind Force 12) 68, 12 : 12 12 12, 12 2

4, A2106 100044 + 86-10-68002615 68003689 + 86-10-68002674 Email: lijf@public.bta.net.cn www.creia.net (Sven Teske) Gr. Elbstrasse 39 22767 Hamburg, Germany + 49-40-30618-304 + 49-40-30618-167 Email: sven.teske@greenpeace.de (Corin Millais) Renewable Energy House, 26 Rue Due Trone B-1000 Brussels, Belgium + 322 546 1940 + 322 546 1944 Email: corin.millais@ewea.org www.ewea.org