2.1 1980 1992 % 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 81.9 69.5 68.7 66.6 64.7 66.1 65.5 63.1 61.4 61.3 65.6 65.8 67.1 5.0 12.0 14.2 10.9 13.0 12.9 13.0 15.0 15.8 13.8 10.9 12.7 17.3 13.1 18.6 17.1 22.5 22.3 21.0 21.5 21.9 22.7 25.0 22.5 21.5 15.6 28.1 22.7 23.8 23.0 16.0 14.6 13.1 9.1 8.3 8.7 6.8 4.25 12.7 14.3 12.3 14.1 20.1 21.1 23.0 20.6 17.3 19.6 23.5 27.4 3.8 4.9 4.6 3.8 3.6 4.4 4.8 5.7 6.6 6.3 5.7 5.8 55.4 58.1 59.3 59.1 60.3 59.1 59.0 54.4 67.8 65.4 64.0 62.5

S I = ( P ) 4 2 K 2 S I P K K I 2 = ( ) 1 4 3 2 I P S S 3 = ( ) K1 = I ( 4 4) K 2

1 q 0 = 1 ( qf ) 2 1 2 4 5

4 6

4 7

= 4 8

2 1

t n+ 1 ) X X X X i + i i t + + t n+ 1 i= t Xt+ 1 = = 4 9 n n ) X t 1 t+ 1 ) X t X t n X t+ 1 = + X t 4 10 n n ) X n + X ( n 1) + X t t 1 t n+ 1 Xt + 1 = 4-11 1+ 2 + + n

) ) 1 Xt+ 1 = αx t + ( 1 α) Xt α α ) X t+1 ) X t+ 1 = X 0 + X ( t + 1) 4 13 ) X t+1 X ) t+ 1 Xt+ 1 = X0( 1+ X') 4 14 X ) t+1 Xt X'= t 1 X 0

X = a X = 1+ a X + + a X + e ( 4 15) t 1 t 2 t 2 n t n t X X ) Xt = e t b1e t 1 b2e t 2 b met m ( 4 16) X = a X + a X + + a X + e b e b e b e t 1 t 1 2 t 2 n t n t 1 t 1 2 t 2 m t m ( 4 17) i t

Σy bσx a = n NΣxy ΣxΣy b = 2 NΣx Σx Σx NΣxy Σx Σy R = ( 4 19) 2 2 2 2 [ NΣx ( Σx) ][ NΣy ( Σy) ] n Σ( x i x)( y i y) i= 1 R = n n 2 Σ( x x) Σ ( y = y) i i= 1 i= 1 i 2

B2 B1 Q 0 = 5 2 D D 1 2

= 5 3 5 4 SE CE 5 5 ( LCC) n Σ i =1 LCC CI CT y i

F Q = 1 P 5 6 V

Q Q 1 2 = 2 ( P1 V1 ) 4( P2 V2 ) F ( P1 V1) ( 5 7) 2( P2 V2) 2 P1 V1 4 P2 V2 F P1 V1 = ( ) ( ) ( ) 2( P V ) 2 2 d( y c) 2( P2 V2 ) Q + ( P1 V1 ) = 0 5 10 dq Q P1 V1 Q = 5 11 2( P V ) 2 2

max Z = Σ C X ( 5 12) j= 1 n j Σ a X B 0 X R Z j n j= 1 ij j i X j j j j

T K K 2 1 = 5 14 C C 1 2 x y 0 0 n Σ Qixi i= 1 = n 5-15 Σ Q i= 1 n i= 1 i Σ Qiyi i= 1 = n 5-16 Σ Q i

PA x CA = CB ( ) CF 6-2 P B Σ xi n= 1 x = 6-3 n lg yi xi = lgz ci + 1 yi = c pi + 1 zi = p i i i n C = Q ( 1+ Σ f ) A n i i= 1 6-5

= 6-6 = = = 360 6 7 + + + 360 6-8

= + + 6-9

Dp Kp = 6-12 P( 1 f ) 4. p D Kc = 6-13 P ( 1 f ) n c K D c P f n c g D D1 Kc = + g 6-14 P ( 1 f ) n 1 c D1 K r = + g 6-15 P n β β

n K = Σ WiK i i = 1 TFi BPi = ( 6 19) W i

FL EPS EPS EBIT EBIT = / / 6-20

EBIF DFL = ( 6 21) EBIF C R R S 3 CSR1 RCS R3 R1 RR 3 R2 = = ( 6 22) C ( 1 R) 1 R S R1 RR 3 R( R1 R3) R1 = 0 1 R 1 R Θ 0 R 1 R R 1 3 R > R R < R 2 1 3 1

B B / S

Cmax b = f( R1 R3 R4 R5) 6 23

1 P = F (7 2) ( 1+ i) n n ( 1+ i) 1 F = A ( 7 3) i n ( 1+ i) 1 i (1+ i) n -1 P = A (7 4) i(1 + i) n n ( l + i) 1 n i( l + i)

n A'(1+ i) -1 F'= i Μ n (1+ i) -1 F'' = G[ - n] i n n (1+ i) -1 (1+ i) -1 = A' + G[ - n] (7-5) i i n (1+ i) -1 P'= A' n i(1+ i) n (1+ i) -1 1 P''= G[ - n] i (1+ i) n n (1+ i) -1 A' + G 1 n (1+ i) -1 n n [ - n] (7-6) i(1+ i) (1+ i) i

n n (1+ i) - (1+ j) F = A' (i j) (7-7) i - j n n (1+ i) - (1+ j) 1 P = A[ ] i - j ( 1+ i ) n (1+ i) - (1+ j) = A n (i - j)(1+ j) = n A( 1 + i) n n 1 n 1 ( 1 + i) ( i j) ( 7 9) n 1 = na ( i = j) ( 7 10) 1 + i n+m m (1+ i) -1 (1+ i) -1 P = A[ n+m ] - m ] (7-11) i(1+ i) i(1+ i) P = A 1 i 1 1 1 1 n 1 P = A 0 0 + A1 1 + A 2 2 + + A n n = Σ A t ( 1 + i) ( 1+ i) ( 1 + i) ( 1+ i) t= 0 ( 1 + i) ( 7 13) t

= 7 18 7 19 = (7 20) S = 1 n 7-21 C n S C c 2 = 1 = 2 ( ) 100% 7-22 = 7-23 = 7-24 e = 7-25

= ( + 7-26

= 7 28

RR PT Pr NPV NPVR IPR R R = 7-29 Pt Σ ( CI CO) t = 0 7 30 t= 1 P t Σ t=1

= 1+ 7-31 P' t a Σ(CI - CO)t t = 0 (7 32) t=1 1 P' t a t a t = t (1+ i) i = (7-23) 1+ NPV = Σ n (CI CO)t a t (7 34) t=1

NPVR = NPV (7-35) P(I) 1 NPV = Σ n (CI - CO)t t = 0 (7-36) t=0 ( 1+ i) FNPV1 FIRR = i 1 + (i2 - i 1) (7-37) FNPV + FNPV 1 2 n Σ(CI - CO) t t=0 1 ( 1+ i) t = 0

m10x1 + m20x2 + + m k0x k M 0 m11x1 + m21x 2 + + mk1xk M1 ( 7 38) m1wx1 + m 2wx2 + + m kwx M w x1 0, x2 0 x k 0

n Ft NPV = Σ t F0 ( 8 2) t= 1 ( 1+ K)

2 2 σ = E(x ) - (E(x)) (8 3) E(x) = Σ x P ; i=1 i=1 Σ P = 1 n i n i i σ V = σ 100% ( 8 4) E ( x ) σ

8 6

σ σ

ξ'= P C + P C + + P C max 1 1 2 2 n n C1 C2 Cn + + + L l1 l2 l n C1 C2 Cn + + + G g1 g2 g n (9 1) C1 C2 Cn + + E e1 e2 e n Μ

(9 2) = (9 3) = + (9 4) (9 5) + (9 6) = + (9 7)

M n [(1+ i) -1](1+ i) = A + D n (9 9) M[(1+ i) -1] I

ay ak = dk dk - ay dl (9 10) al dk i i + i > i ( Θ t'< 1) (9-11) 1- t'

n Σ a v = a v + a v + a v (9 12) j=1 j j 1 1 2 2 n n y a = y j y (9 13) = ( y y ) P x - P Σ Σ y j t (1+ r)' i x jt y jt (9 14) Vjt = Σ Σ a j t j t ( 1+ r) 1 Σ Σ (CI - CO)t t j t D j = 1 ( 1+ r) G Di = G j (9 15)

G = 100% (9 16) = 100% (9 17) = (9 18) = ( / ) (9-19) = (9-20) = (9-21)

P = 1 a P i (10 1) n i=1 Σ n P = a n Σ W P i=1 i i n Σ W i i=1 (10 2) P'= A' (N A - P ) (10 3) A

g 1 1 n P1 i = Σ 100% ( 10 4) n i= 1 P 0i n Σ P1i i=1 g 1 = n 100% (10 5) Σ P 0 i=1 i ΣP1Q0 = 100% (10 6) ΣP Q 0 0 ΣP1 Q1 = 100% (10 7) ΣP Q 0 Q t N = Σ P W ( 10 8) 1 i= it it

N W V = Σ Σ P Q (10 9) i=1t=1 it it 100 (10 10) 100 (10 11)

V = t = R (1+ r) (11-1) 0 n t t t=1 n ( ) 1 =1 + t t

V = F + i F N 0 (11 12) 1 + r n V F i N n 0 r 100 10% 1990 1 1 1997 1 1 1995 1 1 12%( ) 100 + 10% 100 7 V0 = 1 + 12% 2 137. 10 137. 10 ( 2) F + i F n V0 = ( 11 3) 1 + r n 100 + 10% 100 2 V0 = 1 + 12% 2 = 96. 77 96. 77 ( 3) n i F F V0 = t + n ( 11 4) ( 1 + r) ( 1 + r) t= 1 2 10% 100 100 V = t + ( 1 + 12%) ( 1 + 12%) 0 2 t= 1 = 10( 108929 + 0. 7972) + 100 0. 7972

N F(1+ i) V 0 = n (11 5) (1+ r) N n 100 ( 1+ 10%) V0 = 2 ( 1+ 12%) 100 19487. = 12544. = 15535. 155.35 B V = 0 n t=1 t 1 i F( 1+ i) F n + ( 1+ r) ( 1+ r) 7 n = i n F (1+ r) 1 F n + n (11 6) r ( 1+ r) (1+ r) 2 10% 100 ( 1+ 12%) 1 V = ( + + 100 0 12% 1 12%) ( 1+ 12%) 10 12544. 1 =. + 100 2 12% 12544 ( 1+ 12%) 2 2 V = i (1+ r 2 ) 2n F 1 F 0 + r (1+ r (11 7) r 2n 2 ) 2n ( 1 + ) 2 2 B AIBD r = (1+ r') -1 n i F ( 1 + r) 1 F V 0 = n + n (11 8) 2( 1 + r -1) ( 1 + r) (1+ r)

F V 0 = (11 9) 1 - r n 365 n 1995 8 29 1996 4 27 100 12% 100 V0 = 1 12% 241 365 100 0. 92 = 108.58 F V = ( 11 10) 0 ( 1+ r) n V0 = d (11 11) r V 0 d (Statedannualdiscountrate) r 100 8 12 8 V0 = = 12% 6667.

d Dt V0 = + t ( 11 12) r t= 1 ( 1+ r ) d + E( Dt) V0 = ( 11 13) r D1 t E(Dt) tdt 100 8 / 2 8 2 V0 83.33 12% R t V0 = t ( 11 14) ( 1 + r) t= 1 R R R t V0 = t ( 1 + r) t= 1 t 1 = R t t= 1 ( 1 + r) R = ( 11 15) r

008. V0 = 12% 067. (2) V = 0 N t=1 Rn (1+ r) Rm PN = ( 1+ r) n m= N+ 1 PN + ( 1+ r) N m N (11 16) 1 1 1 13. V 0 = 0. 08( + 1 12%) 1 12%) 2 + + + 1 + 12%) 3 ) + ( ( ( ( 1 + 12%) 3 = 0. 08 2. 4018 + 13. 7118 = 112.

2 s E0( 1+ g) s E0( 1+ g) s E0( 1+ g) V0 = + 2 + ( 1+ r) ( 1+ r) ( 1+ r) D = s E 0 0 2 D 0(1+ g) D 0(1+ g) D 0(1+ g) V 0 = + 2 + (1+ r) (1+ r) ( 1+ r) D (1+ g) = = D 0 1 (r > g) (11 17) r - g r - g 85% 050. ( 1+ 5%) V0 = = 893. 10% 5% (2) N t (1+ g) PN V 0 = t + N (11 18) t=1 (1+ r) ( 1+ r) 3 t 3 0 50 85%(1 + 5%) 0 50 1 + 5%) 20 V0 =.. ( t + 3 t= 1 ( 1 + 10%) ( 1 + 10%) 0. 425 105. 0. 425 11025. 0. 425 11576. 0. 5 11576. 20 = + + + 11. 1. 21 1331. 1331. = 9. 86

V = 0 m n DN ( 1+ g) 1 m N m= N+ 1 ( 1+ r) ( 1+ r) DN+ 1 1 = N r g ( 1+ r) V = 0 N t= 1 N t= 1 D0( 1+ ga ) t ( 1+ r) D0( 1+ ga ) ( 1+ r) t t t + m= N+ 1 m n DN ( 1+ g) 1 m N ( 1+ r) ( 1+ r) N D 1 r g ( 1+ r) N+ 1 + 3 t 4 0. 4( 1+ 10%) 0. 4( 1+ 10%) 1 V0 = t + 3 t= 1 ( 1+ 12%) 12% 5% ( 1+ 12%) 04. 11. 04. 121. 04. 1. 331 0. 4 14641. 1 = + + + 112. 12544. 14049. 12% 5% 14049. = 711. N N ( 11 19) 1 0. 4 3 10% 3 5% 12%

100 (10-20)

= 100 (11-21) 3. = 100 (11-22) 4. = 100 (11-23) 5. = 100 (11-24)

= (11-25) 1 7. = 100 (11-26) 8. = (11-27)

= (11-28) = = (11-29)

= 100 (11-30) = + + (11-31) = 100 (11-32)

= ( ) (11-33) (2) = (11-34) ( ) = (11-35) (4) = (11-36) = (11-37)

MAi = 1 N N-1 j=0 P (12 1) i- j

N ( ) (N) RSI i 100 N N (12 3) 100 (N) RSI i 100 (12 4) N 1 N

10 + 3 + 10 + 20+ 9 ( 9) RSI 9 = 100 ( 10 + 3+ 10 + 20 + 9) + ( 8+ 8 + 14 + 10) 52 = 52 + 40 100 52 = 92 100 = 5652. 100 ( 9) RSI9 = 1+ 52 40 100 = 100 1 + 13. = 5652. 10 5 52 + 5 10 ( 9) RSI 92 5 10 100 10 = + = 54. 02

2 (12 7) 1 DI C 2 + H + L (12 8) 4

n µρ = X µ (13 1) i=1 i i µ n X i = 1 i= 1 2 2 2 σ S S σ σ S 2 2 2 σ = X σ + 2 XiXjσ i j ( 13 2) ρ n i i i= 1 i= 1 j= 1 n n ij σ = ρ σ σ ( 13 3) ij ij i j

S ρ 2 σ ρ S ρ 2 σ i = σ ( 13 4) 2 ρ σ ρ σ σ 2 2 2 2 σ = X σ 2( 1 X ) σ + ( 2 4X ) σ ( 13 6) p i i i j i ij 13 6 X 2 2σ p 2 2 = 2Xσ i 2( 1 Xi) σ j + ( 2 4Xi) σ ij ( 13 7) 2X i 13 7 0 2 2 2 2X σ + 2X σ 4X σ = 2σ 2σ i i i j i ij j ij 2 σi σij Xi = 2 2 σ + σ 2σ i j ij ( 13 8) σ ρ ρ σ ρ σ σ σ j( σi + σi ) σ j X = = ( 13 9) i ( σ + σ ) 2 ( σ + σ ) i j i j σ j ( σ + σ ) i j ρ σ ρ σ σ

X i X i 2 σ j = 2 2 ( 13 10) σ + σ i j 2 σ j = 2 2 σ + σ i j ρ σ ρ σ σ σ σ X = i 2 σ j σ σ 2 2 σ + σ 2σ σ i j j i i j σ j( σ j σi) = ( 13 11) ( σ σ )( σ σ ) j i j i σ σ σ σ 2 2 2 σ + σ 2σ = σ σ σ σ i j ij j ij 2 i σ = 0 ij ρ σ σ = 0 2 i ij i j Θ σ ( σ ρ σ ) = 0 σ i i i ij j σ = 0 ρ ij = σ i j σi ρij σ j

σ σ σ = ( 1/ 2) 10 + ( 1/ 2) 10 2 2 2 2 2 p = 2( 1/ 2) 10 2 2 = ( 1/ 3) 10 + ( 1/ 3) 10 + ( 1/ 3) 10 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 p = 3( 1/ 3) 10 2 2 N = ( 1/ N) 10 + ( 1/ N) 10 + 2 2 2 2 2 p = ( 1/ N) 10 2 2 2 2 N 2 10 σ p = 2 10 = N N 10 2 Sp = σp = 13 12 N ( )

n n 2 σρ = XiX jσ ij i= 1 j= 1 n µρ = Xiµ i ( 13 13) i= 1 N Xi = 1 i= 1 2 M σ in ρ 13-13 (Lagrangian ObjectiveFunction) n n Z = X X σ + λ [ X µ µ ] + λ ( X 1) i= 1 n i j ij 1 i i ρ 2 j= 1 i= 1 i= 1 ( 13 14) 13-14 X λ 0 (n + 2) Z 2 = 2X1σ1 + 2X2σ12 + 2 Xnσ1n + λ 1µ 1 + λ 2 = 0 X 1 Z 2 2 = 2X1σ12 + 2X2σ2 + 2 Xnσ 2n + λ 1µ 2 + λ2 = 0 X 2 Μ Z 2 2 ( 13 15) = 2X 1σn1 + 2X2σn2 + + 2Xnσn + λ 1µ n + λ2 = 0 X n Z = X1µ 1 + X2µ 2 + + Xnµ n µ ρ = 0 λ 2 Z = X1 + X2 + + X = λ n 1 0 2 n i i

C X K 2 2σ n X 1 2σ 12 2σ 1 µ 1 0 1 1 2 2σ 21 2σ 2 2 σ 2nµ 21 X2 0 Μ Μ Μ Μ Μ = Μ 2 2σ n 2 n 2 n n1 X 1 σ 2 σ µ n 0 µ 1µ 2 µ n00 λ1 µ ρ 11 100 λ2 1

σ 2 t Θ r = a + b r + ε µ = E( r ) = a + b E( r ) + E( ε ) = a + b E( r ) ( 13 18) 2 2 2 2 σ = V( r ) = V( a + b r + ε ) = b σ + σ ( 13 19) b i i i I i i i i i I i i i I i i i i I i i I εi 2 i σ σ 2 2 2 εi

Θ µ = X µ µ ρ µ = X [ a + b E( r )] ρ n i= 1 = a + b E( r ) i i i I n i= 1 n i i i i i I = X ia i + E( ri ) X ib i ( 13 20) i= 1 n i= 1 β X = n X b n+ 1 i i i= 1 13 20 n µ ρ = X a + X E( r ) i= 1 i i n+ 1 I 2 2 2 σ = X σ + Σ X X σ Θ σ p i i n i= 1 n j= 1 X X σ i j ij n 2 2 2 p Xi σi i= 1 i= 1 j= 1 Θ σ = b σ + σ 2 2 2 2 i i I εi n n 2 2 2 2 2 2 p I i i i εi i= 1 i= 1 σ = σ X b + x σ n n = 0 i j ij ( 13 22) 13 22 X = n X b n+ 1 i i i= 1 n ( 13 23) 2 2 2 σp = Xn+ 1σ I + Xiσ ε i ( 13 24) i= 1 2 µ σ ρ p

µ ρ

AG AG

µ m - R f µ ρ = R + σρ (13 25) σ µ σ µ σ µ M R σ ρ m m ρ m f R m β i m βi = cov(r,r ) 2 (13 26) σ m β = ΣX β (13 27) p i i µ

Θ u = f( β ) i u = a + bβ i i i µ = R + ( µ R ) β ( 13 28) i f m f i β µ β

λ λ λ λ λ λ λ

λ λ λ λ λ λ B F = ( 1 2 12. + 1 2 080. ) = 100. γ F = ( 1 2 134%. + 1 2 10. 6%) = 12% 13-1 ( ( ) (b) u +1000 +150 1.0 F -1000-120 -1.0 0 30 0

(1) = X B = 0 β jp i j i= 1 (2) X i = 0 N i t m (3) X e = 0 λ λ λ n i= 1 i i

14-1

Qi PV = Σ n i 14-5 i=1( 1+ r) 3000 3 1000 1210 1331 1100 1210 1331 3000 = + 2 + 3 ( 1 + r) ( 1+ r) ( 1 + r) K * = Vr 14 6 t t * * K K = Vr Vr = V( r r ) t t 1 t t 1 t t 1 * K = K * * I = K - K = K - K = V r 14-7 t t r = r r I t t t 1 t * * K K I I I t t t-1 t t t-1 t t t t t

i Kt = V(1 - λ) Σ λ r (0 < λ < 1) 14-8 i=0 t-i i ( 1 λ) ( 1 λ) λ ( 1 λ) λ 2 ( 1 λ) Σλ = 1 i K t 1 i = V(1- λ) Σ λ r 14-9 i=1 t-i-1 λ 14 9 i+ 1 λk = V( 1 λ) Σ λ r 14 10 t 1 14 8 14 10 K λk = ( 1 λ) Vr t t 1 t 0 t i 1 K K = ( 1 λ) Vr ( 1 λ) K 14 11 t t 1 t t 1 * K = K = (1- λ) K - (1- λ) k t t-1 t t-1 * I = K K = ( 1 λ)( K K ) 14 12 t t t 1 t t 1 λ K * t K * t

rt Pv = e [ Ptrt WtL t q tgi t ] dt 14 13 0 α r = AK L β t t t r t Wt = 14 14 L p t t r t Ct = 14 15 K p t t C = q (r + δ) - q 14-16 t t t δ Kt = K * t δ Pt rt Pt rt Pt rt Pt rt I t = β α α + β α α 1 1 1 1 2 2 0 ( ) 1( ) + β( ) 14 19 C C C C t t 1 t 1 t 2

β

dsw dy > 1 W dsw dy > 1 W

θ θ > 0 S t = S(W t, r t+1)0 < S w < 1Sr 14 26 < i r ω 1 i

ω( i) r i 1 i ω( i) r i = 0 1 i r ω( i) = 14 27 i 1 i

14-1 79 80 85 90 91 92 26.71 23.32 20.83 16.61 15.60 14.50 46.8 51.2 52.7 48.5 45.0 45.6 14-2 78 80 85 90 93 568.9 772.4 1383 2951.1 ( ) 133.57 191.33 397.60 686.31 921 210.6 399.5 1622.6 7034.2 14764.0

15 1 100.0 80.00 64.0 51.2 Μ 41.0 1 Y = I S Y 1 I 15 1 C 1 Y Y I S / Y 1 1 C / Y 15 1 S C 1 Y Y

n n n C Σ Yt = I( 1 + C + 2 C + + 1 1, C ) = I 15 2 t=1 1 C n 1 C 1 C

15 2 (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (4) (2) 5 (5) (3) 5 (7)=(5)+(6) 1 10 0 50 0 5 5 2 10 0 50 0 5 5 3 11 1 55 5 5 10 4 13 2 65 10 5 15 5 16 3 80 15 5 20 6 19 3 95 15 5 20 7 22 3 110 15 5 20 8 24 2 120 10 5 15 9 25 1 125 5 5 10 10 25 0 125 0 5 5 11 24-1 120-5 5 0

η η

15 3 C b(y -l) I I a(c -C -1) I I I Y C I 1 1000 1000 1000 2 500 1000 500 1000 2000 3 1000 1000 500 1500 2500 4 1250 1000 250 1500 2500 5 1250 1000 0 1250 2250 6 1125 1000 125 1000 2000 7 1000 1000-125 875 1875 8 937.5 1000-62.5 875 1875 9 937.5 1000 0 937.5 1937.5 10 968.75 1000 31.25 1000 2000 11 1000 1000 31.25 1031.25 2031.25 12 1015.625 1000 15.625 1015.625 2031.25

2 2. 1 ( 1 1 C) 3. V (1-1 - C) 4. 2 V 1 (1 1 C) 5. 2 ( 1 + 1 C) V 2

15 4 ( ) ( ) ( ) 1953 91.59 1103 1973 438.12 6.1 1954 102.68 121 1974 463.19 5.7 1955 105.24 25 1975 544.94 17.6 1956 160.84 528 1976 523.94-3.9 1957 151.23-60 1977 548.30 4.6 1958 279.06 84.5 1978 668.72 22.0 1959 368.02 31.9 1979 699.36 4.6 1960 416.59 13.2 1980 745.90 6.7 1961 156.06-63.0 1981 667.51-10.5 1962 87.28-44.1 1982 845.31 26.6 1963 116.66 33.7 1983 951.96 12.6 1964 165.89 42.2 1984 1185.18 24.5 1965 216.90 30.7 1985 1680.51 41.8 1966 254.80 17.5 1986 1885.48 17.7 1967 187.72-26.3 1987 2297.99 21.9 1968 151.57-19.3 1988 2762.76 20.2 1969 246.92 62.9 1989 2535.48-8.9 1970 368.08 49.1 1990 2918.64 15.1 1971 417.31 13.4 1991 3628.14 24.3 1972 412.81-1.1 1992 5273.64 45.4 1993 ( )

15 5 ( ) (%) 1953 1957 5 116.3 1958 1962 5 147.5 1963 1968 6 68.5 1969 1972 4 64 1973 1976 4 21.5 1977 1981 5 32.5 1982 1989 8 35.5 1990? 15 6 1953 10-15 1956 1958 1964 1969 1975 1978 1984 1985 1992

15 7 1953 110.3 14.0 1973 6.1 8.3 1954 12.1 5.8 1974 5.7 1.1 1955 2.5 6.4 1975 17.6 8.3 1956 52.8 14.1 1976 3.9 2.7 1957 6.0 4.5 1977 4.6 7.8 1958 84.5 22.0 1978 22.0 12.3 1959 31.9 8.2 1979 4.6 7.7 1960 13.2 1.4 1980 6.7 6.4 1961 63.0 29.7 1981 10.5 4.9 1962 44.1 6.5 1982 26.6 8.2 1963 33.7 10.7 1983 12.6 10.0 1964 42.2 16.5 1984 24.5 13.6 1965 30.7 17.0 1985 41.8 13.5 1966 17.5 17.0 1986 17.7 7.7 1967 26.3 7.2 1987 16.1 10.2 1968 19.3 6.5 1988 17.3 11.3 1969 62.9 19.3 1989 8.9 3.7 1970 49.1 23.3 1990 15.1 5.1 1971 13.4 7 1991 24.3 7.7 1972 1.1 2.9 1992 45.4 25.4

15 8 1957 1956 1961 1962 1959 1961 1967 1968 1967 1968 1972 1971 1972 1976 1976 1977 1981 1980 1989 1988 1989

15-9 (%) (%) 1953 110.3 15.8 0.93 1973 6.1 4.2 0.34 1954 12.1 7.9 0.93 1974 5.7 7.1 0.05 1955 2.5 8.0 0.44 1975 17.6 5.8 0.29 1956 52.8 37.7 0.66 1976 3.9 5.1 0.11 1957 6.0 4.1 0.24 1977 4.6 4.3 0.29 1958 84.5 67.5 0.66 1978 22.0 4.9 0.41 1959 31.9 1.6 0.23 1979 4.6 4.8 0.26 1960 13.2 13.1 0.04 1980 6.7 4.8 0.25 1961 63.0 13.4 0.23 1981 10.5 4.7 0.22 1962 14.1 16.4 0.65 1982 26.6 3.1 0.31 1963 33.7 1.1 0.74 1983 12.6 2.1 0.36 1964 42.2 5.2 0.87 1984 24.5 3.3 0.45 1965 30.7 7.9 0.80 1985 41.8 3.9 0.38 1966 17.5 4.7 0.78 1986 17.7 3.6 0.23 1967 26.5 2 0.32 1987 16.1 3.2 0.30 1968 19.3 3.8 1.60 1988 17.3 3.0 0.29 1969 62.9 8.7 0.89 1989 8.9 1 1970 49.1 9.2 0.83 1990 15.1 2.3 1971 13.1 5.1 0.27 1991 24.3 3.2 1972 1.1 2.9 0.12 1992 45.4 2.0 / (%) (%)

m X I(V V m ) II(C C) X

C = Q M m Q ( 16 M 1)

( ) ( ) A ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) A ( ) ( )

17 1 1988 45 50% 60% 70% 70% 80% 80% 90% 6 5 12 90% 20

17 2 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 1. 75% 25% 2. 100% 100% 3. 50% 50% 1. ( ) 2. ( ) 3. 4. 5. 6. ( )( ) 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. 17. 18.

R(1+ K) M 1 = (17 1) r 1 r