2016 9
3 4 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 21 22 2
6 3% 112017 2016 2017 Didier Duret 2016 9 3
4
2016 9 6 XX 7 XX XX XX 2016 2016 1.5% 1.5% 6.5% XX XX 5
XX 中性 XX 現金 XX 房地產 商品石油 黃金 白銀 XX 金融 公用事業 工業 股票 亞洲新興市場 資訊科技 健康護理 核心消費品 對沖基金 XX 債券 核心政府 投資級別 通脹掛鈎 新興市場債券 高息債券 XX XX -30-20 -10 主動偏差 (%) 10 20 30 3 Didier Duret - 6
10 2016 1-1.5% 8
2016 9 Han de Jong 2013 5 2015 12 (%) 1 指數 60 2016 9 2 2017 2017 55 1.9 2.3 1.9 2.3 1.0 1.2 1.5 1.3 0.5 0.6 2.3 2.4 50 0.7 0.8 1.0 0.6 45 美國歐元區中國 * 2.0 2.0 1.7 1.8 5.9 6.5 5.3 5.6 2.2 2.4 11.4 11.4 1.9 1.8 5.1 7.6 40 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 50 50 Datastream 3.1 3.6 3.2 4.6 1 * Consensus Economics 9
7 3% MSCI 15.2 * 美國 歐洲 2015 新興市場 12-9 -6-3 0 3 6 9 12 15 10 2016 預測 2015 2015 2016 預測 2016 預測 *F = 20162017 MSCI 2017 預測 2017 預測 2017 預測 2016 9 7 2017 市 15.2 MSCI 市場 - (MSCI ) 16.7 - (MSCI ) 14.6 - (MSCI ) 12.9 新興市場 - (MSCI ) 12.9 - (MSCI ) 14.3 - EMEA (MSCI EMEA) 10.2 MSCI
2016 9 Annemijn Fokkelman 11
12
2016 9 9% 8% 14% 11% 16% 42% 20132015 核心政府債券 * 歐元區外圍國家政府債券歐洲通脹掛鈎債券 歐洲投資級別企業債券 歐洲高息債券 新興市場主權債券 * Mary Pierterse-Bloem (%) 2016 9 7 2016 12 2017 12 0.38 0.80 1.30 3 0.83 0.80 1.40 2 0.73 1.00 1.50 10 1.55 1.40 1.80 0.00 0.00 0.00 3-0.30-0.40-0.40 2-0.68-0.80-0.80 10 0.11-0.20-0.10 13
2016 2016 8 2016 12 2017 2017 Hans van Cleef 14
2016 9 投 2016 9 6 2016 2017 47.8 50 70 45.2 50 65 1328 1272 1366 19.6 17.5 20.8 1065 1041 1181 677 605 666 1588 1620 1700 4617 4880 5800 蘭 350,000 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 布蘭特原油價格 ( 美元 / 桶 )( 右方 ) 非商業投機性短倉 ( 左方 ) 0 01/14 11/14 09/15 07/16 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 15
2015 1.05 1.15 110 105 100 95 90 85 80 75 70 2010 2012 2014 2016 2015 2013 2013 2017 Georgette Boele 16
2016 9 2016 9 5 20164 20174 1.1174 1.10 1.10 103.40 103 110 115.54 113 121 1.3346 1.33 1.40 0.8436 0.83 0.79 1.0918 1.10 1.14 0.7596 0.74 0.75 0.7300 0.70 0.75 1.2943 1.27 1.20 9.5665 9.50 9.00 9.2493 9.25 8.50 2016 9 5 20164 20174 6.69 6.83 7.00 66.80 69.00 69.00 1.36 1.40 1.38 32.40 33.00 32.50 13,146.00 13,400 13,000 65 64 58 2.9500 3.00 2.90 14.3700 15.00 14.50 4.3600 4.45 4.30 27.0200 27.15 26.50 309.57 320 300 3.26 3.35 3.20 18.49 18.50 17.50 17
2016 3.8% 3% 8 30 EPRA/ NAREIT 12% Ralph Wessels 18
2016 9 19
(%) 2003 5 22 2016 8 31 * 2016 2016 8 31 2003 5 22 2016 8 31 * 2016 2016 8 31 1 75.19 77.06 1.06 2.62 1.34-1.24 62.12 67.81 3.51 2.89 1.73-1.13 2 84.43 93.89 5.13 2.55 1.47-1.05 72.83 81.83 5.21 3.65 2.72-0.89 3 107.82 133.90 12.55 2.32 1.50-0.80 100.56 120.13 9.76 4.09 3.32-0.74 4 120.66 148.74 12.73 1.98 1.44-0.53 115.85 137.42 9.99 4.63 3.99-0.61 5 140.72 180.43 16.50 1.60 1.50-0.11 137.02 169.40 13.66 5.12 4.61-0.49 6 151.18 190.51 15.66 1.30 1.45 0.15 149.29 181.83 13.05 5.45 5.01-0.42 * 1 23 45 6 20
1 6 1 2 5 0 60 42 37 5 0 70 29 24 * 90 40 100 53-37 70 30 85 41-29 0 0 10 0 0 15 0 30 15 0 5 0 10 5 0 10 0 20 15 5 5 5 0 5 5 0 0 0 0 3 6 3 0 0 0 2 4 2 100 100 100 100 3 4 5 0 70 23 18 5 0 70 15 10 * 55 20 70 32-23 35 10 55 20-15 30 10 50 30 0 50 20 70 50 0 10 0 20 15 5 10 0 30 15 5 5 5 0 5 5 0 3 6 3 3 6 3 2 4 2 2 4 2 100 100 100 100 5 6 5 0 70 2-3 5 0 60 3-2 * 15 0 40 13-2 0 0 25 0 0 70 30 90 70 0 85 40 100 85 0 10 0 30 15 5 10 0 30 12 2 5 5 0 5 5 0 3 6 3 3 3 0 2 4 2 2 4 2 100 100 100 100 21
2016 9 Didier Duret didier.duret@nl.abnamro.com Gerben Jorritsma gerben.jorritsma@nl.abnamro.com Han de Jong han.de.jong@nl.abnamro.com Olivier Raingeard olivier.raingeard@fr.abnamro.com Neuflize OBC Bernhard Ebert bernhard.ebert@de.abnamro.com Bethmann Bank Rico Fasel rico.fasel@nl.abnamro.com Georgette Boele georgette.boele@nl.abnamro.com Hans van Cleef hans.van.cleef@nl.abnamro.com Roy Teo roy.teo@sg.abnamro.com Mary Pieterse-Bloem mary.pieterse-bloem@nl.abnamro.com Roel Barnhoorn roel.barnhoorn@nl.abnamro.com Willem Bouwman willem.bouwman@nl.abnamro.com Chris Huys chris.huys@nl.abnamro.com Shanawaz Bhimji shanawaz.bhimji@nl.abnamro.com Jasvant Jadoenathmisier jasvant.jadoenathmisier@nl.abnamro.com Carman Wong carman.wong@hk.abnamro.com Grace M K Lim grace.m.k.lim@sg.abnamro.com Barbara Cheung barbara.cheung@hk.abnamro.com Annemijn Fokkelman annemijn.fokkelman@nl.abnamro.com Maurits Heldring maurits.heldring@nl.abnamro.com Jaap Rijnders jaap.rijnders@nl.abnamro.com Ralph Wessels ralph.wessels@nl.abnamro.com Piet Schimmel piet.schimmel@nl.abnamro.com Paul van Doorn paul.van.doorn@nl.abnamro.com Chris Verzijl chris.verzijl@@nl.abnamro.com Martien Schrama martien.schrama@nl.abnamro.com Chew Hwee chew.hwee.lim@sg.abnamro.com Javy Wong javy.wong@hk.abnamro.com Hans Peters hans.peters@nl.abnamro.com Paul Groenewoud paul.groenewoud@nl.abnamro.com Linus Nilsson linus.nilsson@nl.abnamro.com 22
2016 9 1) 2) 1934 1934 1940 1934 23
ABN AMRO MEESPIERSON Rico Fasel rico.fasel@nl.abnamro.com BANQUE NEUFLIZE OBC S.A. Wilfrid Galand wilfrid.galand@fr.abnamro.com DFSA Bjorn Holderbeke bjorn.holderbeke@ae.abnamro.com BETHMANN BANK AG Bernhard Ebert bernhard.ebert@bethmannbank.de William Tso william.tso@hk.abnamro.com Jean-Marie Schmit jean.marie.schmit@lu.abnamro.com Peter Ang peter.ang@sg.abnamro.com - Tom Van Hullebusch tom.van.hullebusch@be.abnamro.com Andrew Pollock andrew.pollock@gg.abnamro.com ipad iresearch@nl.abnamro.com. www.abnamroprivatebanking.com