2010 03 11 600196.SH ()20.65 ()30.71 A() 685.65 () 25,560.05 () 21.45/12.36 300 3279.69 3048.93 24.36 22.36 20.36 18.36 16.36 14.36 12.36 090311 090605 1, 2010.2.24 2 2009.10.29 : 090826 (8621)61038218 huangting@gjzq.com.cn : (8621)61038315 lilj@gjzq.com.cn (8621)61038219 lijingl@gjzq.com.cn 1,200 091124 100222 800 600 400 200 969 15A 200011 0 300 1,000 2006 2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E () 0.272 0.506 0.558 1.972 0.799 0.918 62.96% 141.47% 10.40% 253.38% -59.48% 14.87% () 2.147 0.799 0.918 EPS () N/A N/A N/A 2.078 0.802 0.928 () 22.59 29.19 19.01 10.47 25.84 22.49 () 40.21 65.64 40.45 71.20 71.20 N/A () 25.86 45.72 15.55 29.70 29.70 N/A 7.15% 0.68% 0.94% 0.70% 0.70% 0.70% PE/G() 0.36 0.21 1.83 0.04-0.43 1.51 8.39% 16.16% 17.23% 38.59% 13.75% 13.85% () 3.25 3.13 3.24 5.11 5.81 6.63 () 1.89 4.72 3.28 2.78 2.45 2.15 () 0.19 0.11 0.19-0.28 0.12 0.13 A() 480.86 630.88 630.88 630.88 630.88 630.88 () 952.13 1,237.77 1,237.77 1,237.77 1,237.77 1,237.77 EPS 3 GSP GSP 此报告仅供平安资产管理有限责任公司使用 1
2009 1 DPP-IV PCT 380.2 30.71 35 269.5 237.16 2010 30 PB=1 2
... 5... 5... 5... 6... 6... 6... 7... 8... 8... 8... 10... 10... 11... 12... 12... 12... 13 DPP-IV... 13 RITUXAN AVASTIN... 13... 14... 15... 19 1... 5 2... 6 32010... 8 4... 9 5... 9 6... 10 7... 10 8... 11 9... 12 10Rituxan Avastin... 13 3
11Genentech... 14 4
1 1+1>2 2008 2009 2009 2010 2008 GSP 5
GSP 2 1000 5 OTC Alkmaar Export B.V.OTC 2008 1000 2008 500 2009 600 2010 6
2008 2009 3 2009 OTC 70% GMP GMP 1985 2009 D-Pharm Ltd. DP-b99 GMP DP-b99 III 2010 10 1 25% 7
42010 16000 14000 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010E 2011E 140% 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 1939 2009 7 5300 V 2009 3 20% 600 600 2000-3000 2009 100% 8
5 ICH CGMP 1997 FDA EDQM FDA 2010 2010 2.5-3 100% 100% 100% 100% 2010 10 9500 2 25-30% 6 9
7 2009 350 20 6 1 2006 2009 2009 8 7-8%2010 2 10
9 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 2006A 2007A 2008A 2009H1 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% ( 2009 4 5 2 91 85 2009 28 103 52 50 25 2 14 47 2010 15 3 2 27 26.7% 57 56.4 1 2009 1 DPP-IV PCT 11
10 DPP-IV ANDA / ANDA RITUXAN AVA ST IN me-too me-betters 2009 Fast Follower 5 7 2009 DPP-IV 18 DPP-IV 2009 1 DPP-IV PCT 2006 80% 3 1 8-9 2009 bio-similar bio-better 5 5 GMP 15 95% 12
DPP-IV DPP-IV DPP-IV Januvia Sitagliptin Janumet Galvus Vildagliptin 2006 Januvia 4290 Janumet sitagliptin 2007 4 2008 20 GalvusVildagliptin2007 9 FDA 07 08 800 4300 DPP-IV DPP-IV RITUXAN AVASTIN 11Rituxan Avastin 40% 10 Rituxan() Avastin Rituxan B 2006 Avastin 2004 2008 Rituxan Avastin Genentech 10 2008 50 Rituxan Genentech 1997 CD-20 B Avastin Genentech 2004 VEGF 13
12Genentech 6500 6000 5500 5000 4500 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Rituxan Herceptin Xolair Raptiva Avastin Lucent/Lucentis 2004 FDA (MPM) FDA MPM 2008 FDA 2004 FDA (NSCLC)2008 FDA 2008 3 60 2008 3.01 35 2006 3574 2008 13364 1072009 2007 2008 18 12 10 14
2005 FDA 30 3000 9300 5 2009 2006 0.83 2007 2.74 2008 5.41 155.3% 2005 11 2006 2 2007 5 2008 10 2010 2 SFDA 237.16 35 Morgan Stanley 35 Credit Suisse 36 7.7 35 269.5 237.16 PE 106.05 2010 30 PE 15
13 14 PE WIND 2009 50 PE 2009 30 PE 15 PE PE PB 25.41 PB 16
16 PB=1 PB=1 57% 3129 75% 612 100% 10262 69% 2816 100% 9991 80% 1360 97% 9403 67% 298 100% 4427 100% 100 92% 2227 100% 1000 100% 51730 100% 800 100% 1015 50% 302 54% 2864 100% 50148 100% 452 248 32% 4413 100% 5176 100% 2000 50% 5099 4000 14104 2700 5300 52495 5660 17.17 2010 14535 71940 395% IPO 2009 40 PE 21.2 3.15 17
17 380.2 30.71 380.2 18 380.2 30.71 35 269.5 237.16 2010 30 18
PB=1 2006 2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E 2006 2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E 3,102 3,693 3,773 4,360 4,980 5,750 989 1,074 1,006 2,685 3,752 4,839 19.1% 2.2% 15.6% 14.2% 15.5% 742 671 619 685 769 888-2,282-2,694-2,712-3,139-3,586-4,140 608 495 531 585 658 749 % 73.6% 72.9% 71.9% 72.0% 72.0% 72.0% 71 66 262 96 106 118 820 999 1,061 1,221 1,394 1,610 2,410 2,306 2,417 4,051 5,285 6,593 % 26.4% 27.1% 28.1% 28.0% 28.0% 28.0% % 36.4% 32.1% 32.2% 45.6% 53.3% 59.3% -14-18 -18-22 -25-29 2,707 3,471 3,684 3,585 3,464 3,464 % 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 1,274 1,139 1,145 1,050 951 851-418 -485-496 -567-647 -748 % 19.3% 15.8% 15.2% 11.8% 9.6% 7.7% % 13.5% 13.1% 13.1% 13.0% 13.0% 13.0% 214 262 253 204 210 216-362 -331-426 -480-548 -633 4,202 4,883 5,095 4,841 4,628 4,533 % 11.7% 9.0% 11.3% 11.0% 11.0% 11.0% % 63.6% 67.9% 67.8% 54.4% 46.7% 40.7% EBIT 25 165 122 153 174 201 6,612 7,190 7,512 8,892 9,913 11,126 % 0.8% 4.5% 3.2% 3.5% 3.5% 3.5% 1,465 1,556 503 0 0 0-79 -122-141 -104-82 -82 759 529 605 656 725 826 % 2.6% 3.3% 3.7% 2.4% 1.6% 1.4% 119 133 648 239 245 264 0-1 -21-5 -1-1 2,343 2,218 1,755 895 970 1,090 0 0 0 0 0 0 545 747 1,180 1,180 1,180 1,181 335 695 847 2,580 1,000 1,125 97 154 157 0 0 0 % 98.1% 91.9% 101.4% 97.2% 89.1% 88.3% 2,985 3,119 3,093 2,075 2,151 2,272 280 737 808 2,624 1,092 1,244 3,090 3,872 4,009 6,326 7,192 8,204 9.0% 19.9% 21.4% 60.2% 21.9% 21.6% 558 444 437 517 597 677 61 20 28 30 30 30 6,634 7,435 7,539 8,919 9,940 11,153 341 756 836 2,654 1,122 1,274 11.0% 20.5% 22.1% 60.9% 22.5% 22.1% -48-66 -75-133 -53-57 2006 2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E 14.1% 8.8% 8.9% 5.0% 4.7% 4.5% 293 690 761 2,521 1,069 1,216 0.272 0.506 0.558 1.972 0.799 0.918 34 64 70 80 80 80 3.246 3.128 3.239 5.111 5.810 6.628 259 626 691 2,441 989 1,136 0.194 0.106 0.188-0.277 0.123 0.134 8.4% 16.9% 18.3% 56.0% 19.9% 19.8% 0.000 0.100 0.100 0.100 0.100 0.100 8.39% 16.16% 17.23% 38.59% 13.75% 13.85% 2006 2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E 3.91% 8.42% 9.16% 27.37% 9.95% 10.19% 259 690 761 2,521 1,069 1,216 1.39% 2.25% 1.79% 1.81% 1.85% 1.91% 34 0 0 0 0 0 148 138 154 125 123 125 3.80% 19.06% 2.16% 15.56% 14.22% 15.46% -251-565 -696-2,571-948 -1,073 EBIT -36.44% 79.50% -26.28% 25.46% 14.22% 15.46% -5-132 -46-418 -92-102 62.96% 141.47% 10.40% 253.38% -59.48% 14.87% 185 131 172-343 152 166 17.07% 12.08% 1.40% 18.37% 11.48% 12.24% -248-200 -208 52 1 0-187 -18 206 99 120 0 55.2 46.0 43.5 42.0 41.0 41.0 100 165 58 2,580 1,000 1,125 91.1 74.7 69.0 68.0 67.0 66.0-335 -54 56 2,731 1,121 1,125 70.0 46.1 42.3 42.0 41.0 41.0 0 17 16 0 0 0 138.9 101.8 100.9 79.3 62.3 47.6 801 385-89 -583 0 1-432 -264-282 -126-206 -206 27.93% 28.35% 15.23% -21.99% -33.02% -41.18% 370 138-355 -709-206 -205 EBIT 1.2 1.3 0.9 1.5 2.1 2.5 219 216-126 1,679 1,067 1,087 45.00% 41.95% 41.03% 23.27% 21.64% 20.37% 19
0 0 1 1 4 0 1 1 1 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2.00 1.67 1.60 1.54 1 2 3 4 5 1.00 = 1.01~2.0= 2.01~3.0= 3.01~4.0= 4.01~5.0= () 1 2008-03-29 15.40 N/A 2 2008-04-29 15.10 N/A 3 2008-06-24 11.65 N/A 4 2008-08-18 10.51 N/A 5 2009-06-12 14.73 17.5517.55 6 2009-08-28 17.03 N/A 7 2009-10-29 18.26 N/A 8 2010-02-24 21.17 N/A 20.76 18.76 16.76 14.76 12.76 10.76 8.76 6.76 1 2 3 080311 080604 4 080826 081124 8 7 6 5 090223 090518 090810 091106 100128 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 612 20% 612 10%20% 612-10%10% 612 10%20% 612 20% 20