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A 1982 33 H 1932 81 E 1985 8 1986 1 [ ] A 1986 2 [ ]R.M. 1985 65 1987 172 1985 2 11
23 362
23 307 25 431 34 170
33 205
L.F. Urwick The Golden Book of Management Edited for the International Committee of Scientific Mange ment CIOS Newman Neame London 1956 P51
Μ Μ Μ Μ Μ Μ Μ Μ Μ
3 1 2
1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991
1979 151 1 1991 322
C x x n i i n i i = = 1 /
1 1991 225
) ) ) Y = a + b X ) ) a b ) ) ) ) Y = b + b x + b x, Λ, b ) 0 1 1 2 2 p x p ) b 0 ) ) b, b, Λ, ) 1 2 b p
) yt = f ( xt r) ) y = g( x τ ) Tth Tth
Money supply 28 9 Housing Permits l4 8 Stock market l4 5 Mortgage debt l3 7 Residential Investment l1 9 Business Loans l1 5 Capita1 goods orders 10 4 Inventeries 9 3 Business inventary 8 5 Credit outstanding 8 5 Industrial coustruction 6 6 Unemployed Rate 4 2 Automobile sales 3 9 Free reserves 2 9 Y (X ij ) X N X
a ij Xij =,( i, j = 1, Λ, n) X i a a a 11 12 Λ 1n A = Μ Μ Λ Μ an1 an2 Λ ann [ ] 1982 1981 1986
1 1991 119180 [ ]H.A. 1982 33
[ ] 1984 60 32
[ ] 1982 50 [ ] 1982 50 [ ] 1987 280
O 1 E 11 P 11 W 11 A 1 B 1 E 12 P 12 W 12 E 21 P 21 W 21 O 2 P A 2 E 22 P 22 W 22 B 2 D E 23 P 23 W 23 Μ Μ Μ Μ Μ E n1 P n1 W n1 O m A n E n2 P n2 W n2 B n E n3 P n3 W n3
0.7 100 0.3-20 I 0.7 40 0.3 30 0.7 1.0 95 1.0 40 0.3 30
L 1 L 2 L 2 L 2 L 3 L 3 L 3 L 3 L 3 L 3 L 3 L 3 L 3
L 1 F F L 2 L 2 L 2
L 1 F 1 F 1 L 2 L 2 L 2 F 2 F 2 L 3 L 3 L 3 L 1 F 1 L 2 F 1 F 2 L 3 F 2
F F
A B C
A B A C A D A B C A B D A C D A C B A D B A D C A B C D A C B D A D C D B C B D C B C D D B D C n( C 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 1 6 18 44 100 222 490 1080 2376 5210 11374 24708 2359602
1 2 3 4 1 2 2 4 3 6 4 8 5 5 3 6 9 12 10 2 4 6 8 15 2 4 6 10 8 10 10 4 22 24 25 27 28 30 31 33 34 36 37 39 40 42 8 11 7 10 6 9 5 8 4 71 4 6 4 5
3 5 2
1 20 20 25 35 2 25 20 25 30 3 35 35 10 20 4 5 25 20 50 5 90 10 6 10 90 7 20 25 25 30 8 10 15 10 65 9 30 20 20 30 10 20 15 35 30 11 15 25 35 25 12 10 30 10 50
=
A B C D E A 1 0 0 1 2 B 0 0 0 1 1 C 1 1 1 1 4 D 1 1 0 1 3 E 0 0 0 0 0
14 3 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
( ) : :,,
23 367
Y 1. ( ) 2. ( ) 1. ( ) 2. ( ) ( )
A B C D E F G H I J K
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
1 18
18 1
42 176 42 176
19 1
9 1.9 9.9 8 7 6 5 5.5 4 3 2 1 1.1 9.1
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1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
1 1991 139 1975 1982 1983 246 3 1991 897 899 898 3 1991 899
3 1991 901
4 1991 1440 1444 3 1991 902 3 1993 381 382
µβερυηητζ
1978 3
C F Q i Q i+1 Q
= 100% = 100% = 100% ( ) + = 100%
= 100% = 100% = 100% = 100%
= 100% ( ) = + + + = 2 = 100% + = 2
Μ Μ Μ Μ Μ
Q C P F + = ( 24 1) M C' Q o v CF = M C' v ( 24 2) dp = ( M C' ) dq + QdM QdC' dc v v F P = ( M C' ) Q + Q M Q C' C v v F
dq o = 1 M C dc CF F + ' ( M C' ) v v dc' CF ( M C' ) 2 v 2 v dm 1 CF CF Qo = CF + 2 C' v 2 M M C' ( M C' ) ( M C' ) v v Q Qo = Q v
a + 4m + b t( i, j) = 6 ES(i,j) = max h {ES(h, i) + t(h,i)}(i,j = 2,3,,n) min LF( i, n) = i EF( i, n) { } min LF( i, j) = k { LF( j, k) t( j, k) } ( i, j = 1, 2, Λ, n 1)
LS( i, j) = LF( i, j) t( i, j) i, j = 12,, Λ, n
1 620.21 3758.68 840.87 4209.19 750.00 500.00 2 3 36.50 221.20 45.12 181.11 41.50 240.00 4 438.12 2653.10 644.86 024.20 537.00 220.00 5 6 39.01 217.30 34.96 152.22 35.00 170.00 7 0.34 2.07-0.16 1.70 8 9 106.24 665.01 116.09 849.36 136.50 870.00 10 18.05 154.15 45.21 158.57 25.00 150.00 11 0.08 1.24 0.76-5.01 12 7.l0 119.53 22.21 115.46 19.20 115.00 13 0.00 0.02 0.01-0.04 14 10.87 33.36 22.23 43.08 5.80 35.00 15-0.07 0.07 0.31 16 11.66 87.25 17.57 67.27 12.00 70.00 17 105.45 611.19 120.75 825.48 130.30 835.00 450.51 10.7 741.32 16.5 184.35 21.8 204.99-21.8 4.42 2.8 4.15 2.8 9.72 30.8 1.64 1.1 19.98 29.7 17.25 24.6 214.29 26.5 223.81 24.8 24 4/ 5.95 4.3 1.6 5.9 5.3 0.6 70.6 71.8 1.2 70.6 71.6 1.0 5.8 3.6 2.2 5.8 3.8 2.0 17.7 20.2 2.5 17.7 18.9 1.2 21.6 30.4 8.8 21.6 22 0.4
= 100% = + + 100%
=
=
90 1988
80 82 ] 90 1988 6
90 1988 14
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