26 5 5. % 1 4.75 4.5 4.25 4. 3.75 3.5 Apr-5 Jun-5 Aug-5 Oct-5 (%) Dec-5 Feb-6 Apr-6 : DataStream, April 25 to April 26 415% 22 6 ( ) 1 1 ( ) 1 ( ) 1
4261 4.8%2541.7% 4 419.6 4ISM 355.2 4 57.3 3 6.1%13 784.8% 3.4% 1?.88.86.84 / /.59.58.57.56 1. 8.5 7. 5.5 - - /.82.8.78.76.74.72 28/4/25 26/5/25 23/6/25 21/7/25 18/8/25 15/9/25 13/1/25 1/11/25 8/12/25 5/1/26 2/2/26 2/3/26 3/3/26 27/4/26.55.54.53.52.51.5.49 / % 4. 2.5 1. -.5-2. -3.5-5. -6.5-8. Apr-5 May-5 Jun-5 Jul-5 Aug-5 Sep-5 Oct-5 Nov-5 Dec-5 Jan-6 Feb-6 Mar-6 : DataStream, April 26 : DataStream, April 26 12 4 17% 5.25% 26 27 GDP 6% - 261 26121.8%1 42% 4 ( ) 2
452.% 5 1.%1.7% 4 Renu 8 4 3 7 5.2 6 5.1 5 4 3 2 (%) 5. 4.9 4.8 1 4.7 4.6 4.5 3M 6M 2Y 3Y 5Y 1Y 3Y : Bloomberg, April 26 : Bloomberg, April 26 51 348 7%5:1 14% 5 16.6%26 113.2% 154 5261 251 66% 33% 2 3 4 45 1 5 7.6% 5 5.1% ( ) 3
4 263 5 15 5 3 2 1.3% 64 2.4% 42.5% 26 63 Euribor 4.5 3.2 4. 3 3.5 3. 2.8 2.5 2.6 % 2. 1.5 % 2.4 1. 2.2.5 2 21 22 May-5 Jun-5 Jul-5 Aug-5 Sep-5 Oct-5 Nov-5 Dec-5 Jan-6 Feb-6 Mar-6 Apr-6 23 24 25 26 e 27e : IMF, Eurostat & Bloomberg, April 26 : Bloomberg, April 26 4 9 26 1.8% 2.% 3 263 GDP.7%2.6%3.5% /( ) 84 26 63.25% 3 3.75%42.5% 25 12 2 3 8.6% 3 15 ( ) 4
54 ().2% Blackstone 4.5% EPS(%) 7 6 5 4 3 2 % 25% 2% 15% 1% 5% 1 % Apr-5 May-5 Jun-5 Jul-5 Aug-5 Sep-5 Oct-5 Nov-5 Dec-5 Jan-6 Feb-6 Mar-6 Apr-6-5% Mar-4 May-4 Jul-4 Sep-4 Nov-4 Jan-5 Mar-5 May-5 Jul-5 Sep-5 Nov-5 Jan-6 Mar-6 : DataStream, April 26 : Bloomberg April 26 4() Continental BBV Argentaria Societe Generale4 Thomson Analytics26 8.2% 9.2% 27 ( ) 5
- 47 1 4.5%8 1.6% 1.8% 2.2%3.7% 44 3 1.1%.1%3126 9376 3 313 1.8%. 16 % 2. 3. 14 1.5 2.5 12 1 98 96 94 1..5. -.5-1. -1.5-2. (%) 2. 1.5 1..5 92 Q1 1999 Q3 1999 Q1 2 Q3 2 Q1 21 Q3 21 Q1 22 Q3 22 Q1 23 Q3 23 Q1 24 Q3 24 Q1 25 Q3 25 Q1 26-2.5 Mar- Jul- Nov- Mar-1 Jul-1 Nov-1 Mar-2 Jul-2 Nov-2 Mar-3 Jul-3 Nov-3 Mar-4 Jul-4 Nov-4 Mar-5 Jul-5 Nov-5 Mar-6 : DataStream, 1991 to 26 : DataStream, January 2 to March 26 2% 1.7%25 4.9%19993 4 4 1.1%.5% 1.8% 1.6% 1 3 13 3 1.8%2 2% 3 4 3 1.4% 1.3% Mervin King 2% ( ) 6
6 1.1%1.2%.6%.7% Vodafone (%) (%) 4% 35% 3% 25% 2% 15% 1% 5% % 3. 2.5 2. 1.5 1..5 12 1 8 6 4 2-2 Q2 1996 Q4 1996 Q2 1997 Q4 1997 Q2 1998 Q4 1998 Q2 1999 Q4 1999 Q2 2 Q4 2 Q2 21 Q4 21 Q2 22 Q4 22 Q2 23 Q4 23 Q2 24 Q4 24 Q2 25 Q4 25-4 : RIMES, MSCI-UK, 26/4/6 : DataStream, Bloomberg, 1996 to 26 5.7% 4.8% () 3 13 ( ) 7
26 3 314.3%24.3% 7.1%8.6% 27.8% 27 3 31 2.4% 2.% 6. 5. 5GDP -4-3 ( ) ( ) -2 4. -1 (%) 3. 2. () 1 2 1. 3 4. 198 1982 1984 1986 1988 199 1992 1994 1996 1998 2 22 24 26 5 Mar-9 Mar-91 Mar-92 Mar-93 Mar-94 Mar-95 Mar-96 Mar-97 Mar-98 Mar-99 Mar- Mar-1 Mar-2 Mar-3 Mar-4 Mar-5 Mar-6 : Cabinet Office, data as of 26/4/6 : Bank of Japan, data as of 31/3/6 5 1.9%.3% 9 35.9%1991 1.9% 5GDP 1.6% 14 ( ) -1-11992 / 14 ( ) 8
46 1328 1489 26 4 27187 ( 3 ) 25/2617.8%14.2%? (12) 5 45 4 35 3 25 2 15 (1) (5) () (, ) 12 1 8 6 4 2 (lhs) (lhs) 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 1 5-2 -4 5 Feb-88 Jul-9 Dec-92 May-95 Oct-97 Mar- Aug-2 Jan-5-6 1982 1984 1986 1988 199 1992 1994 1996 1998 2 22 24 26 : DataStream, data as of 31/3/6 : DIR, MoF, Bloomberg data as of 31/12/5 12 2 2 25 199 ( ) 2325 ( ) 9
261GDP 6.2% 1.2% 2 : Firing on all cylinders :? 4 零 GDP 1.3 5. 35 1.2 4. 3 1.1 3. % 25 2 1. % 2. 15 9.9 % 1. 1 9.8. 5 9.7-1. 9.6 1Q5 2Q5 3Q5 4Q5 1Q6-2. Q1'4 Q3'4 Q1'5 Q3'5 Q1'6 : National Bureau of Statistics, CEIC : DataStream, April 26 1 1.2%1 26.5% 24.9% 12.8%1 27.7% 1.27% 5.85% 24 1 26 8.2% 9.5% 261.7% 25 4 4.2% 3 CLSA 15.2 9.57.2 12 2.2 FIST 64-19 E 61 ( ) 1
4 24 11 7.4%() 3.2%4 27 4 32 1 GDP6.2% 15.3% () ( ) 1.9 / 1.7 1.5 1.3 1.1.9 % 2 4 6 8 1 12.7 Jan-5 Apr-5 Jul-5 Oct-5 Jan-6 Apr-6 : Bloomberg, April 26 : DataStream, April 26 3.43% 1.73% 3.23% 3.78% 4 3 6 ( ) 7 4 4.86 12 2 1(3.8 4.9) 4 / 4 1.4 3 4.6.4.9 1.6 2.5 FIST 64-19 E 61 ( ) 11
3 14 13 13 12 Total return rebased to 1 12 11 1 99 Total return rebased to 1 11 1 99 98 98 Jan Feb Mar Apr Jan Feb Mar Apr : Merrill Lynch, 26 4 45 1.25%.4% A.43% AAA.35%.9% 1 2.4% 4.87% 1.2% 1 5% 5.6% ( ) : Merrill Lynch, 26 4 ().6%.3% 4 1 2.% 1999 8 4 5.5% 1.36% 1 1.78% 1.93%3 2.26% 2.45% ( ) 12
4 32 14 4 3 454 54 2.4%3 2.2% 13 18 12 16 Total return rebased to 1 11 1 Total return rebased to 1 14 12 1 99 98 98 96 Jan Feb Mar Apr Jan Feb Mar Apr : Merrill Lynch, 26 4 4 1.5% 1.% 1.1% 4 2.14% 4.58% 2.19% 4.44% Stephen Nickell5 : Merrill Lynch, 26 4 4 2.4%.9%.4% BBB AAA 2 3.29% 3.38% 2.19% 4.18% 5 3.25% ( ) 13
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