,,,,, ;,,, 2008 /4 ( 16 ), 79 102 Q uarterly Journal of Intenational Politics 79
:,,, 1900,,,,,,,,,,, 20,,,, 1978 :,, 2002, 10 12 ; :, 2001, 382, :,, 2008, 17 :,, 1999, 37 :, 1988 ; :,, 2005, 6 7, 11 12 :, 2002, 407 80
,,,,,,,,,,,, :,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, :,,,,, :, 1999 2, 64 : :,, 1998, 25 27 :, 1987 5, 49 :,, 2004, 129 81
:,,, :,,,,,,,,,,, :,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, ;, ;,,,,, :,, 2004, 170 173 :,, 1993, 7 :,, 2002, 160 161 :, 1990 1, 96 82
,,,, ( ),,,,,,, :,,,,,,,,,,,,, :, ;, ;,, :, 3 83
,,,,,,, ( ),,,,, :,,,,,,,,,?,,,,,,!,,, :,,,,,,,,,, ; ;, 84
, :,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, :,,,,, :, ;,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,!,,, :,, 1992, 410 ; :, 1980, 342 343, :,, 2000, 184 186 85
, ( ),,,,,,,,,,,,, :,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, : :,, 1999, 10,,,, 2001, 310, 1603, 105 86
,,, :,,,,,,,,,,,, :,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, :,,,,,, :, ( ),,, 87
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, :,,, ;,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, :,,,,, ;,,,,,,,,,, ;, ;, ;,,,, ;, ;,, ;, 88
,,,,,,,,,,, ( ),, ;,,, :,,,,,,,,,,,,,,!,,, 89
,,,,,, ; ;,,,, ;,,,,, ( ),,,,,,,,, :,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, ;,, :,, 1984, 70,,, :, 1981, 266 267 90
,,,,,,,,, :,,,,,,,,,,, ( ),,,,,, :,,,,,,,,,, ;,, 91
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, :, 120, ;, ;, ;, 92
,,,,,, : ;,,,,, ( ),,,, :,,,,,,,,,, ;,,,, ;,,,,,,,,,, :,,,,,,,,, :,, 2005, 1, ;, ;, ;, ;,, 93
,,,,,,,?,,,,,,,,,, ;, :,,,,,!,,,,,,,,, ;,,,,!,,,,,, ;,,, ( ),, 94
,,,,,,,,,, :,,,,,,,,,, :,,,,,, :,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,!!,,,, 5 95
,, :,,,,,,, :,, ;,,, ;,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, :,,,,, ( ),,,, Robert Powell, In the Shadow of Power: S tates and S trategies in International Politics ( Princeton, N. J. : Princeton University Press, 1999 ), p. 195; Randall L. Schweller, D eadly Im balances: Tripolarity and Hitlerπs S trategy of W orld Conquest (New York: Columbia University Press, 1998), p. 69., 96
,,,,,,, :, :,,,,,,,,,,, :,,,,,,,, :,,,,,,,,,,,,,, :,,,,,,!?,,,,,, ;, ;, ; ;,, ;, 97
,,,,,,,,,,, ( ) ( ),,,,,,, :,,?, 20 70,, 21, 98
,,,,,,,,,, ( ),,,, :,,,,, Rose McDermott, Political Psychology in International Relations ( Ann A rbor: The University of M ichigan Press, 2004; Jerold M. Post, Leaders and Their Followers in Dangerous W orld: The Psychology of Political B ehavior ( Ithaca and London: Cornell University Press, 2004) ; Jerold M. Post ed, The Psychological Assessm ent of Political Leaders w ith Profiles of Saddam Hussein and B ill Clinton (Ann A rbor: The University of M ichigan Press, 2003). 99
,,,,,,,,,, (1), (2), (3),,, ( ),,,,,,, 100
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, ( ),,,,,,,,, : ( ),, 2003, 544,,, 101
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 102
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