10384 200015140 UDC Hainan Airlines Investment Valuation Analysis (MBA) 2003 3 2003 3 2003 9 2 0 0 3 3
1993 A B 8 1000 100 2002 10 11 501 473 560 85% 1999 2001 SWOT EBO
Abstract Hainan Airlines, as the first pulbic company in Shanghai A- and B- share stock markets of China civil aviation industry, was founded in 1993. Only eight years later, this local Airlines has become the fourth big Airlines in China. It s assets has expanded, from 10 millions RMB to more than 10 billions RMB, In Oct.11th, 2002, China founded three large air groups. They are China Southern Air Group which has 50.1 billions assets, China Eastern Air Group which has 47.3 billions assets, and Air China Group which has 56 billions assets. And the big three will control about 85 per sent domestic air market, Hainan Airlines will only has about 5 per sent domestic market. That means China airline sector changed, from fragmentation to an oligopoly market; as a result, local airlines will endure more and more hard competition. Based on this situation, the paper analysts the investment valuation of Hainan Airlines with original research. There are six chapters in this paper. Chapter introduces the basis information and the problems of Hainan Airlines. Chapter makes an industry analysis of China civil aviation, focus on the developing history and the trend of China civil aviation, and the influence of Hainan Airlines bringing by China civil aviation reform. Chapter is Hainan Airlines financial analysis. Based on Hainan Airlines annual reports from the fical year of 1999 till 2001, the paper analysis it s account quality and financial data, then make a finance appraisal. Chapter is the SWOT analysis of Hainan Airlines, which analysis Hainan Airlines strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats. Chapter is the stock valuation of Hainan Airlines. By using Free Cash Flow (DCF) Model and EBO Model, the paper makes the valuation of the company. Chapter analysts the investment risk of Hainan Airlines,including the
influence of profit changing, air safety, competition, finance and stock market. Then we make an investment suggestion, based on the above chapters analysis. Key Words: Civil Aviation Regroup; Financial Analysis; Valuation Model.
... 1... 3... 3 1999 2001... 4... 7... 7... 8... 12... 16... 20... 21... 28... 35... 38... 42 SWOT... 45... 45... 46... 47... 49... 51-7 -
DCF Model... 51 EBO... 58 EBO... 64... 67... 67... 67... 68... 68... 68... 70... 71 1998 2001... 75 1998 2001... 78 1998 2001... 79 1998 2001... 82 1998 2001... 85... 88 EBO... 90...91 2002 20 9% 2020 5 2320-8 -
WTO 2002 10 11 501 473 560 85% 1993 1 A B 1000 100 2000 50 5% - 9 -
A 600221 B 900945 1993 1 1993 5 2 A B 2002 7 73 34 B737 300/400/800 19 Dornier328 300 6 Hawker800XP 2 A109 3 70 Dash8 Q400 9 4 CAAC CAAC121 ISO9000 2001 300 5% 50% - 10 -
1999 2001 2001 32.55 9.38 1 1 1999 80.13% 88.73% CAAC 1999 20.35% 20.43% 45.31% 31.52% 40.98% 50.54% 1997 2 3 1 2 1 3 2001 2001 25.46% 9.29% - 11 -
1 1 1999 2001 1999 2000 2001 % 1 18.07 22.96 32.55 80.13 4.97 6.1 9.38 88.73 % 8.84 7.82 4.62-47.74 2 106.69 118.22 128.39 20.35 18.43 20.63 22.19 20.43 % 3.15 0.30 2.07-34.32 24.84 29.34 35.01 40.98 5.88 6.75 8.86 50.54 % 11.95 24.82 107.72 23.43 26.21 34.04 45.31 5.94 5.27 7.82 31.52 % 6.29 6.70 6.49 1999 2001 1 2 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 7.50 7.30 14.13 15.40 15.26 9.21 8.28 22.46 12.19 4.30 10.63 26.72 3.29 23.74 24.97 18.34 19.87 19.37 15.73 11.07 0.49 31.52 13.29 29.70 28.66 27.21 24.75 40.01 44.13 92.18 27.21 24.75 40.01 44.13 25.46 CAAC1996 2001 1 3 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 1 1997 6 B 0.47 1999 11 A 4.6 2 1997 11 A 2.45-12 -
1.30 2.20 5.89 10.30 11.94-2.17-0.83 3.31 20.36 15.29-0.95 23.12-1.38 12.40 15.95 7.60 20.36 2.26 4.19 15.61-0.22 23.64 0.74 28.49 20.25 29.54 26.47 30.24 29.44 57.26 29.54 26.47 30.24 29.44 9.29 CAAC1996-2001 - 13 -
9 11 3 60 90 3 2000 1 P11-14 -
2.2% 3.4% 1.9% 4 GDP CAAC 90 1991 1997 1998 2.08 2.53 1978 2001 GDP 2 10% 1985 1 10 CAAC 1998 4 2000 8 P1 6-15 -
15 2 1 CAAC 2000 7 2002 10 11 2 1 CAAC CAAC CAAC 2000 1 90 CAAC - 16 -
Degree papers are in the Xiamen University Electronic Theses and Dissertations Database. Full texts are available in the following ways: 1. If your library is a CALIS member libraries, please log on http://etd.calis.edu.cn/ and submit requests online, or consult the interlibrary loan department in your library. 2. For users of non-calis member libraries, please mail to etd@xmu.edu.cn for delivery details.