2004 19461969 1970 1950 1969 1950 1
1969 1969 1963 1967,1975:13 1982:100, 2002 1 2 1970 1970 1970 2002;2003 1969 1 1969 1970 2 1969 2
1969 1950 19691970 1990 1970 1970 19471970 Barclay 1954, 1982, 1986 1965 1968 1960 3
1963 1956 1959: 173 19461956 1975: 13; 1982: 5 19401947 1979 45 1982: 5 1 19471970 1970 1970 cohort 3 1950 1950 X 1970 35~65 1 1970 1970 3560 歳 19471950, 2002 3 1 1970 4
彚 4 2002: 97 4 (1968) 5
2-1 1956 1966 30-35 40-45 -200000-100000 0 100000 200000-200000 -100000 0 100000 200000 1980 1990 50-55 60-65 -200000-100000 0 100000 200000-200000 -100000 0 100000 200000 1956 2-2 1966 35-40 25-30 -1000000-500000 0 500000 1000000-1000000 -500000 0 500000 1000000 1980 1990-1000000 -500000 0 500000 1000000-1000000 -500000 0 500000 1000000 NOTE 1. 2. X Y 100+ 歳 3. X 200,000() X 1,000,000() 6
1969 1969 19691970 1968 7
3-1 1946 1948 1950 1952 1954 1956 1958 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 3-2 1946 1948 1950 1952 1954 1956 1958 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 8
19471970 cohort 1947 1970 1947~1950 1956 1956 1950 P(t)=P(t-1)+B(t)-D(t)+M(t)+E(t) 1970 M(t) 1947 5 % 5 1956 1967, 1970 ( 1955: 176,185) ( 1959:184) (Barclay, G. W.) ( 1959: 188-9) 1964: 25 9
2002 19461970 2-1 2-2 (1947~1980) 1947 27907 50000 1964-1085 30060-1000 1948 69955 189908 130000 1965-220 35052-200 1949 337783 242104 460000 1966 77 21564 1950 105963 135492 120000 1967 39099 1951 36917-59964 20000 1968-757 1952 21773-6885 15000 1969 93527 1953 16550-12074 24000 1970 86240 1954 10748-3005 20000 1971 20510 1955 25192-7285 32000 1972 12278 1956 9486-19346 9000 1973-8461 1957 5314-7853 5000 1974-11475 1958 11359 73032 11000 1975-150 1959 5713 109912 6000 1976-18777 1960 2946 39707 3000 1977 15282 1961 3381 12857 3000 1978-16081 1962 1631 25864 2000 1979-7565 1963-268 22370-300 1980 6086 NOTE 1. 1 2. 2 P(t)=P(t-1)+B(t)-D(t)+M(t)+E(t) T P(t)P(t-1) B(t)D(t) M(t) E(t) 1948 1948~1949 P(t)P(t-1) B(t)-D(t) 3. 1965 1968: 55 1950 1 10
6 19461970 19521970 7 彚 8 1950 1951 1966 1956 (1) 9 (2) 6 1946~1960 1954 1963 7 1963 1967 1964 () 8 1977 1978 1978 9 ( ) 11
1947-1970 (1) (2) (1)-(2) (3) 1951 21770 36059-14289 1952 9125 9125 23217 58168-34951 1953 8774 8774 33002 31900 1102 1954 6660 6660 30303 38482-8179 1955 29243 29243 55698 77342-21644 1956 9904 9904 95958 128284-32326 1957 5636 5636 79432 97713-18281 1958 15795 5486 21281 97876 102482-4606 1959 12939 15794 28733 139099 107193 31906 1960 6824 6619 13443 118248 104408 13840 1961 3491 9907 13398 116084 96598 19486 1962 4008 4304 8312 122644 112452 10192 1963 3325 6862 10187 125738 111236 14502 1964 3206 6941 10147 131654 111556 20098 1965 4124 4240 8364 131320 107511 23809 1966 4237 6263 10500 134251 114081 20170 1967 7030 5865 12895 125863 100073 25790 1968 7662 6908 14570 119565 100300 19265 1969 20441 13848 34289 648054 327307 320747 1970 12271 11961 24232 365124 338911 26213 1971 12131 13853 25984 31470 23123 8347 1972 10654 9224 19878 13251 3272 9979 1973 10496 21302 31798 13435 3249 10186 1974 7766 14771 22537 4491 1752 2739 1975 5462 17832 23294 3448 1056 2392 1976 2065 899 1166 1977 1271 725 546 1978 591 468 123 1979 507 401 106 1980 456 369 87 1. 2. 3. (1) (2) (3) 1983 12
10 1970 1950 1970 彚 19521968 11 1946 1970 10 11 Intelligence Advisory Committee 1958 Morton H. Halperin, The Taiwan Strain Crisis of 1958, Santa Monica: Rand Corporation Research Memorandum, 1966, pp.5-9, 1985: 38-42 Jacoby 1951-65 (The republic of China) Jacoby, 1966:118 Ho 1949 Ho, 1978:107 1963 1963:30 1946~1952 1964:19 1959: 174-6 196855 1998 11 582,060, 1990: 110-1 13
1958 1963: 23;, 2002: 114, 119-122, 1964 1963 14
12 1969 1959 1969 彚 19471951 鳯 12 2003: 235-7 15
紥 13 1950 14 2003, 1981;, 1993 2003 195-206 13, 1991:17 17 14 1952: 39-41 3 16
1956 15 1956 1958 1956,1995 1950 1960 1946~1968 16 1968 2004 15 敍 1956 8 17 1956 9 5 1956 8 17 16 17
1946 1947, 1996: 263-4 1948 踪 17 18 19 17 (1992) 18 19 18
20 1970 1950 1969 1950, 1993:111-133;, 1999 2003 20 Skocpol & Weir, 1985; Skocpol, 1992 19
20
(1) (2)(3)(4) (1) (2)(3)(4) 1947 37726 36201 1525 9819 7322 2497 1948 302541 221599 80573 369 161137 150150 10233 754 1949 640691 266156 374341 194 258855 222103 36506 246 1950 502109 322720 179207 182 582547 509121 73304 122 1951 431558 363713 45396 679 21770 412834 367617 8897 261 36059 1952 411637 359871 27381 1168 23217 446381 381442 6123 648 58168 1953 394857 342791 11482 7582 33002 382463 348049 1547 967 31900 1954 379823 337356 4774 7390 30303 382990 343092 309 1107 38482 1955 422813 340243 21908 4964 55698 424597 345575 274 1406 77342 1956 526548 418853 7304 4433 95958 556411 425876 619 1632 128284 1957 462116 375046 2594 5044 79432 475889 375852 513 1811 97713 1958 484841 373233 7993 5739 97876 474576 369721 441 1932 102482 1959 538650 390064 5430 4057 139099 498016 387049 1684 2090 107193 1960 541891 415894 2789 4960 118248 527489 418278 2513 2290 104408 1961 512829 389182 1636 5927 116084 496525 395745 1142 3040 96598 1962 561169 431934 1337 5254 122644 548533 431121 678 4282 112452 1963 569465 438647 1028 4052 125738 551525 434942 957 4390 111236 1964 608510 471527 1294 4035 131654 583114 465144 834 5580 111556 1965 609788 473396 1004 4068 131320 581130 468327 632 4660 107511 1966 680765 540134 853 5527 134251 661991 541607 563 5740 114081 1967 574334 403674 38817 5980 125863 592515 436625 50071 5746 100073 1968 617342 407280 84100 6397 119565 621844 410662 104274 6608 100300 1969 1150619 404807 91648 6110 648054 858669 408793 115756 6813 327307 1970 898144 424943 101540 6537 365124 899448 427157 126886 6494 338911 1971 553348 419757 96718 5403 31470 581615 421600 129925 6967 23123 1972 547613 419200 107011 8151 13251 581078 423730 136816 17260 3272 1973 614462 472955 118369 9703 13435 642351 486752 140053 12297 3249 1974 634524 485572 129591 14870 4491 651473 488306 141119 20296 1752 1975 690550 528518 145006 13578 3448 693676 527925 155570 9125 1056 1976 687863 528128 146369 11301 2065 686330 530044 145874 9513 899 1977 695526 537653 146483 10119 1271 712064 539867 159531 11941 725 1978 745348 582460 151206 11091 591 754522 582225 159739 12090 468 1979 747932 545996 191876 9553 507 753987 546155 197563 9868 401 1980 740729 503540 228421 8312 456 744318 501972 234803 7174 369 1981 672976 466510 196893 9026 547 688814 470606 211354 6560 294 1982 728602 508272 211011 8850 469 748167 506943 234301 6657 266 1983 697104 491823 195802 8967 512 736070 497980 229561 8309 220 1984 709458 508113 191672 9149 524 749950 508308 227617 13623 402 1985 707102 503690 192503 10394 515 748824 500688 228479 19187 470 1986 672650 478088 182188 11992 382 737393 486794 234409 15833 357 1987 695892 491604 187977 15983 328 748221 490492 233933 23338 458 1988 735886 522282 195768 17456 380 766059 525921 219064 20625 449 21
1989 732629 512192 200784 19224 429 731131 517531 196817 16329 454 1990 728755 508612 201708 18035 400 699368 509932 175834 13213 389 1991 479402 191859 15140 479684 168534 20821 1992 496470 206309 16631 496233 169741 22157 1993 509755 216711 21683 509708 160108 21764 1994 505731 192431 24862 511962 176724 31051 1995 513764 206019 33225 517560 169403 45665 1996 496828 194613 36736 490669 174325 50253 1997 503476 212606 38751 500856 178856 28845 1998 1999 2000 1977 1978 1978 1997 (1) 1952 1948 1952 1952 (2) 1991 1992 1952 1991 1991 A. B. 1992 1992 A. B. 1990 1991 1991 1975 400,000 1995 500,000 1991 1990 (3) 1991 1978 600 (4) 19 19 19691970 19 19 19 19 (A) (C) (B) (D) (A) (B) (C) (D) 1969 1970 22
1952.1. 5 1957. 1.11 11 11 12 1959. 8.14 1974.12.23 1992. 7.18 1999. 4.21 13 328 774 1 1044 1-2 2824 2-3 81:58 () (= 2586) 330-331. 6270 12 2003: 222 23
19712000 1990 1971 1970 1975 1980 1990 1988~2000 1974 1974 1975 1990 1992 1998 1998 1996 1998 1999 1948~1953, 1957~1960 1956 1966 24
1964 1971 1943-1977 (1943) (1977) 19781997 (1978) (1997) 1959 1999 1981 1987 2001 1981 1952 1968 1963 10(4): 9-31 1985 2002 1905-2000 2003 (19491970) 1959 1993 1990 1969 1997 25
1982 1905-1979 6:99-113 1986 9:1-21 1964 1985 1986 1996 1991 Barclay, G. W. (1954) Colonial Development and Population in Taiwan, New Jersey: Princeton Univ. Press. Chapman, Brian1970Police State, London: Pall Mall Press Ltd. Gates, Hill1987Chinese Working-Class Lives: Getting by in Taiwan, New York: Cornell University Press. Hacking, Ian1991 How Should We Do the History of Statistic?, in The Foucault Effect: Studies in Governmentality, edited by Graham Burchell, Colin Gordon and Peter Miller, Harvester Waheatsheaf Press. Ho, Samuel P. S.1978 Economic Development of Taiwan, 1860-1970, New Haven : Yale University Press. Jordan, Amos A., Jr.1962Foreign Aid and the Defense of Southeast Asia, New York : Praeger. Jacoby, Neil H.1966U.S. Aid to Taiwan : A Study of Foreign Aid, Self-Help, and Development, New York : F. A. Praeger. Skocpol, Theda1985 Bringing the State Back In: Strategies of Analysis in Current Research, in Peter B. Evans, Dietrich Rueschemeyer and Theda Skocpol (eds.), Bringing the State Back In., Cambridge: Cambridge University Press..1992 Introduction: Understanding the Origins of Modern Social Provision in the United States. in Protecting Soldiers and Mothers, Cambridge, MA: The Belknap Press of Harvard University Press. Weir, Margeret & Theda Skocpol, 1985. State Structures and the Possibilities for Keynesian Responses to the Great Depression in Sweden, Britain, and the United States, in Peter B. Evans, Dietrich Rueschemeyer and Theda Skocpol (eds.), Bringing the State Back In., Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. 26