鈮 C00069-5-r1 VI-1
C00069-5-r1 251 2 +852 2511 2011 +852 2511 2005 hk@censere.com www.censere.com 鈮 CMOC Anglo American Nióbio Brasil Limitada AANB Anglo American Fosfatos Brasil Limitada AAFBAANB 15 100% CMOC CMOC VI-2
18 18 CMOC CPR 18VALMIN 660.5 715.5 780.0 763.3 876.9 1,030.6 1,400 1,600 1,800 Brett Shadbolt VI-3
1. Stratiqa 19 Stratiqa Brett Shadbolt Brett Shadbolt30 (NYU Stern) Brett(Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors) Energy Risk Professional of GARP (Australasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy)Brett AMD DY Affluent ERA Real Estate Garena Glamour Sales KV Asia L Capital Multimedia Development Corporation MyIPO Navis Capital Nikkei Terratech Resources UTAC Francois Grobler () Francois (UOFS)(WITS) (UNISA) Ecole des Mines Francois (Curtin) Francois (AusIMM) (SAIMM)(SACNASP) (Pr.Sci.Nat) VALMIN Francois VI-4
2.... VI-2 1.... VI-4 2.... VI-5 3..... VI-7 4.... VI-12 4.1.... VI-12 4.2 VALMIN... VI-13 4.3.... VI-14 4.4.... VI-16 4.5.... VI-16 5..... VI-16 6..... VI-17 7.... VI-18 8.... VI-19 9.... VI-20 9.1... VI-20 9.2... VI-20 9.3.... VI-23 9.4.... VI-25 9.5.... VI-26 10..... VI-27 10.1... VI-27 10.2.... VI-30 11.... VI-31 11.1.... VI-31 11.2... VI-37 12.... VI-38 12.1.... VI-38 12.2.... VI-45 12.3... VI-45 VI-5
13..... VI-46 13.1.... VI-46 13.2... VI-46 14.... VI-47 14.1... VI-47 14.2.... VI-50 14.3... VI-52 15..... VI-52 15.1.... VI-52 16.... VI-53 17.... VI-54 1.... VI-54 2.... VI-56 3... VI-62 4... VI-70 5... VI-75 VI-6
3. % AAFB Anglo American Fosfatos Brasil Limitada AANB Anglo American Nióbio Brasil Limitada Argus Media Argus Media Ltd AusIMM The Australasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy CAGR CAPM 18 18 15 CMOC VI-7
ha Runge Pincock Minarco CPR Runge Pincock Minarco VI-8
JORC CMOC VALMIN Mt VI-9
VI-10
Roskill Consulting Group Roskill Consulting Group Limited tpa VALMIN (Code for Technical Assessment and Valuation of Mineral and Petroleum Assets and Securities for Independent Expert Reports) VALMIN WACC VI-11
4. 4.1 Catalão Cubatão Catalão III Catalão Ouvidor 15 Uberlândia 115 Boa Vista 3.1 13 Santos Catalão Cubatão Catalão IChapadão 5.8 7Catalão 55% Catalão45% 750 Cubatão CatalãoCubatão VI-12
(ha) DNPM 860.119/14 FFG-019 1,035.40 728 26/02/2015 24/02/2017 861.103/13 FFG-008 1,704.22 7,113 3/09/2015 1/09/2017 861.210/13 FFG-009 852.45 7,153 3/09/2015 1/09/2017 861.211/13 FFG-010 1,100.70 7,154 3/09/2015 1/09/2017 861.212/13 FFG-011 768.67 7,155 3/09/2015 1/09/2017 861.379/13 FFG-015 1,950.53 7,175 3/09/2015 1/09/2017 861.380/13 FFG-016 1,000.85 7,176 3/09/2015 1/09/2017 801.560/68 FFG-001 166.76 85 27/01/1984 804.513/68 AREA-05 40.94 87 6/05/2004 860.402/01 FFG-004 455.91 6,370 6/09/2004 860.897/12 DGF-005 1,996.90 860.898/12 DGF-004 1,958.31 861.461/15 FFG-007/B 1,964.07 20 21/01/2016 21/01/2019 860.351/03 MCG-003 726.08 4,883 13/03/2007 4.2 VALMIN 18 18 VALMIN VI-13
4.3 VALMIN VALMIN VI-14
Runge Pincock Minarco VALMIN VALMIN VI-15
4.4 98,000 4.5 5. Runge Pincock Minarco CMOCChen Ching Yung CMOC Runge Pincock MinarcoJeremy Clark VI-16
(Bloomberg) 18 VALMIN VALMIN JORC Roskill Consulting Group Argus Media 6. Francois Grobler RPM JORC Francois JORC VI-17
7. VI-18
8. VI-19
9. 9.1 CMOC AANB AAFB AANB15 100% CMOCGoiás 9.2 鈮 Goiás Catalão Ouvidor Catalão25 Uberlândia Catalão 115 Santos Catalão750 3.1 Boa Vista Mina I Mine II 750 Santos 65% 9.0 VI-20
JORC Nb 2 O 5 (Mt) (%) BOA VISTA 0.3 0.86 0.1 0.74 1.3 0.83 BV 1.7 0.83 BOA VISTA 27.1 0.95 13.1 1.06 BV 40.2 0.99 BOA VISTA 0.2 0.89 6.3 1.24 BV 6.5 1.23 MINA I 7.9 0.97 5.5 0.92 Mina I 13.4 0.95 VI-21
Nb 2 O 5 (Mt) (%) MINA II 0.1 1.19 3.2 1.19 2.6 1.06 Mina II 5.9 1.13 MINA II 2.2 1.07 Mina II 2.2 1.07 0.4 39 31 70 VI-22
Nb 2 O 5 (%) 500 0.90 35,000 0.92 35,500 0.92 18 11.1.6 9.3 Goiás Catalão Ouvidor Catalão I CubatãoCatalão CatalãoCubatão Cubatão Santos12 5.8 VI-23
ChapadãoChapadão Chapadão37 47767 Catalão 50% Catalão50% 750 Cubatão CatalãoCubatão JORC (Mt) (%) CHAPADÃO 75 13.2 230 11.9 65 9.9 Chapadão 370 11.8 VI-24
(%) 56,000 13.2 150,000 12.0 206,000 12.3 18 11.8 9.4 Brett Shadbolt 1 2 Pinheiro Neto Advogados Pinheiro Neto Advogados VI-25
9.5 Boa Vista 25 VI-26
10. 10.1 CF 1 CF 2 DCF = + +... (1+r) 1 (1+r) 2 + CF n (1+r) n CF = r = n= VI-27
10.1.1 鈮 34 27 129 38 44 72 1.1 1.4 34% 65% Roskill Consulting Group Argus Media Roskill Consulting Group VI-28
Argus MediaMAP 10.1.2 = + = 65% VI-29
WACC 10.2 EV/EBITDA EV/EBIT VI-30
EV/EBITDA EV/EBIT EV/EBITDAEBITDA EV/ EBITEBIT EV/EBITDA EV/EBIT 11. 鈮 11.1 11.1.1 (48%) (15%) (13%) (12%) (12%) 65% VI-31
Roskill Consulting Group * ** 33.0 33.0 35.0 1.54% 35.5 36.4 2.37% 38.2 36.5 2.49% 39.2 36.6 2.34% 40.2 36.8 2.16% 41.3 36.9 3.00% 42.7 37.1 3.00% 44.2 Roskill Consulting Group* ** 7.9 ktpa 13.1 ktpa 10.7 ktpa 2.5 ktpa 15.1 ktpa 243.7 ktpa35.038.9 VI-32
11.1.2 29,510 18,576 24,285 32,090 VI-33
11.1.3 15.0% WACC 3 11.1.4 11.1.5 WACC 1.5% 660.5 715.5 780.0 11.1.6 VI-34
5% -5% 982.3 715.5 +5% 559.5 15% +15% 957.0 715.5-15% 538.3 15% +15% 828.4 715.5-15% 602.7 VI-35
15% -15% 619.0 715.5 +15% 812.0 15% -15% 745.4 715.5 +15% 685.6 -/+5% 10% 20% +/-15% 115% 85% +/-15% 115% 85% -/+15% 85% 115% -/+15% 85% 115% (100%) 16.4 2.6 VI-36
18 674.1 740.3 822.3 -/+5% 10% 20% +/-15% 115% 85% +/-15% 115% 85% -/+15% 85% 115% -/+15% 85% 115% (100%) 19.0 2.5 11.2 660.5 780.0715.5 5 VI-37
12. 12.1 12.1.1 MAP11-52-00 MAP11-52-00Argus Media ** 384 384 448 1.54% 455 437 2.37% 454 477 2.49% 508 503 2.34% 548 535 2.16% 596 541 3.00% 621 547 3.00% 646 Argus Media* ** VI-38
Catalão Cubatão * 402 222 214 671 528 * MAP11-52-00 Catalão Cubatão * 296,000 62,000 620,000 541,000 102,000 * VI-39
12.1.2 Catalão Cubatão CAPEX 37,726 55,147 57,680 68,263 110,780 12.1.3 13.0% WACC 3 VI-40
12.1.4 12.1.5 WACC 1.5% 763.3 876.9 1,030.6 12.1.6 VI-41
5% -5% 1,683.3 876.9 +5% 591.1 15% +15% 1,632.5 876.9-15% 118.3 15% +15% 1,121.0 876.9-15% 632.8 VI-42
15% -15% 1,391.4 876.9 +15% 362.4 15% -15% 947.3 876.9 +15% 806.4 -/+5% 8% 18% +/-15% 115% 85% +/-15% 115% 85% -/+15% 85% 115% -/+15% 85% 115% (100%) 51.1-3.3 VI-43
18 764.8 880.3 1,038.1 -/+5% 8% 18% +/-15% 115% 85% +/-15% 115% 85% -/+15% 85% 115% -/+15% 85% 115% (100%) 53.2-3.3 VI-44
12.2 10.2EV/EBITDA EV/EBIT P/E 0% 12.3 763.3 1,030.6 876.9 5 VI-45
13. 13.1 1,400 1,800 1,600 660.5 715.5 780.0 763.3 876.9 1,030.6 1,423.8 1,592.4 1,810.6 13.2 VI-46
14. 14.1 14.1.1 (i) (ii)(iii) 14.1.2 鈮 VI-47
14.1.3 14.1.4 VI-48
14.1.5 IT 14.1.6 14.1.7 Chapadão Buraco Catalão VI-49
14.2 14.2.1 VI-50
14.2.2 14.2.3 VI-51
14.3 14.3.1 15. VALMIN 15.1 VI-52
16. VI-53
17. 1 鈮 BRAZIL Brasilia GOUS Morro Preto Deposit Boa Vista Mina Calalao Complex MINAS Chapadao Mine GEPULS Qunidor Benefieiation Plant 650km Belo Honionte SAO PAULO Cubatao Compler Runge Pincock Minaco VI-54
鈮 VI-55
2 鈮 Boa Vista Boa Vista VI-56
鈮 BV BVFR VI-57
鈮 BV BVFR VI-58
Chapadao Catalão VI-59
Cubatão Cubatão VI-60
Catalão Catalão VI-61
3 (WACC) WACC = K e * W e + K d * (1 - t) * W d K e = K d = W e = W d = t = WACCWACC50/50 WACC WACC K e = R f + [R x - R f ] + K e = R f = = R x = = Epsilon VI-62
a 5.07% 1.48% b 9.40% 6.00% c 0.90 0.90 d 0.93 0.93 e=a+d*b 13.83% 7.07% Epsilon f 5.00% 5.00% 18.83% 12.07% 50.00% 50.00% 15.45% 9.41% 6.03% a: b: Damodaran c: d: f: Epsilon VI-63
a 5.07% 1.48% b 9.40% 6.00% c 0.83 0.83 d 1.03 1.03 e=a+d*b 14.7% 7.7% Epsilon f 5% 5% g=e+f 19.74% 12.65% 50.0% 50.0% 16.2% 9.9% 6.3% a: b: Damodaran c: d: f: Epsilon VI-64
Beta Beta beta 4 1- % % % % % 1 NioCorp Developments Ltd. 94% 6% 2.62% 74% 1.93% 2 Alkane Resources Ltd. 100% 0% 0.00% 70% 0.00% 3 Avalon Advanced Materials Inc 100% 0% 0.00% 74% 0.00% 4 Commerce Resources Corp 100% 0% 0.00% 74% 0.00% 5 Critical Elements Corp 100% 0% 0.00% 74% 0.00% 6 Mineral Resources Ltd. 87% 13% 3.93% 66% 2.59% 7 83% 17% 2.96% 100% 2.96% 8 Lynas Corp Ltd 38% 62% 3.96% 100% 3.96% 9 100% 0% 0.00% 100% 0.00% 10 94% 6% 0.83% 100% 0.83% 11 Merafe Resources Ltd 74% 26% 8.47% 100% 8.47% 12 Cia Ferro Ligas da Bahia FERBASA 97% 3% 14.76% 100% 14.76% 0.93 0.07 3.13% 86% 2.96% 95% 5% VI-65
(%) (%) 1 NioCorp Developments Ltd. 0.91 7% 27% 0.87 2 Alkane Resources Ltd. 0.86 7% 30% 0.82 3 Avalon Advanced Materials Inc. 1.26 0% 27% 1.26 4 Commerce Resources Corp 1.34 0% 27% 1.34 5 Critical Elements Corp 1.07 0% 27% 1.07 6 Mineral Resources Ltd. 1.54 16% 30% 1.39 7 1.12 21% 25% 0.96 8 Lynas Corp Ltd 1.16 166% 24% 0.51 9 1.22 0% 25% 1.22 10 1.09 6% 25% 1.04 11 Merafe Resources Ltd 1.08 35% 28% 0.86 12 Cia Ferro Ligas da Bahia FERBASA 0.50 3% 34% 0.49 1.09 22% 27% 0.99 5% 34.0% 0.90 VI-66
1 % % % % % 1 Agrium Inc 70.30% 29.7% 2.4% 72.4% 1.76% 2 Coromandel International Ltd 63.88% 36.1% 7.0% 67.8% 7.01% 3 FMC Corp 71.99% 28.0% 1.3% 60.0% 0.81% 4 Israel Chemicals Ltd 60.37% 39.6% 2.1% 75.8% 1.61% 5 K+S AG 69.45% 30.6% 1.3% 72.7% 0.93% 6 Mosaic Co/The 71.00% 29.0% 3.3% 60.0% 1.96% 7 Potash Corp of Saskatchewan Inc. 74.56% 25.4% 3.1% 76.0% 2.35% 8 Sociedad Quimicay Minera de Chile SA 76.83% 23.2% 4.9% 72.2% 3.52% 9 Stonegate Agricom Ltd 85.56% 14.4% 1.8% 79.3% 1.46% 10 Vale SA 41.08% 58.9% 16.8% 70.0% 11.73% 11 Yara International ASA 87.23% 12.8% 1.2% 79.3% 0.95% 70.2% 29.8% 4.1% 71.4% 3.1% 70% 30% VI-67
(%) (%) 1 Agrium Inc 1.002 42.2% 27.6% 0.77 2 Coromandel International Ltd 1.016 56.5% 32.2% 0.73 3 FMC Corp 1.112 38.9% 40.0% 0.90 4 Israel Chemicals Ltd 0.868 65.6% 24.3% 0.58 5 K+S AG 1.017 44.0% 27.4% 0.77 6 Mosaic Co/The 1.098 40.8% 40.0% 0.88 7 Potash Corp of Saskatchewan Inc. 1.011 34.1% 24.0% 0.80 8 Sociedad Quimicay Minera de Chile 1.050 30.1% 27.8% 0.86 SA 9 Stonegate Agricom Ltd 1.864 16.9% 26.5% 1.66 10 Vale SA 1.861 143.4% 40.0% 1.00 11 Yara International ASA 0.810 14.6% 20.8% 0.73 1.16 0.48 30.0% 0.88 0.43 34.0% 0.80 Epsilon epsilon 5% VI-68
a 8.90% 14.30% 3.50% 50.0% 50.0% 7.2% 1.8% 8.9% a. WACC 95% 5% 70% 30% WACC WACC = K e * W e + K d * (1 t) * W d = 15.5% * 95% + 8.9% * (1 34%) * 5% = 15.0% WACC = K e * W e + K d * (1 t) * W d = 16.2% * 70% + 8.9% * (1 34%) * 30% = 13.0% VI-69
4 鈮 1 NioCorp Developments Ltd. NB CN NioCorp Developments Ltd. Elk Creek Carbonatite 2 Alkane Resources Ltd. ALK AU Alkane Resources Ltd. 3 Avalon Advanced Materials AVL CN Avalon Rare Metals, Inc. 4 Commerce Resources Corp CCE CN Commerce Resources Corporation 5 Critical Elements Corp CRE CN Critical Elements Corp VI-70
6 Mineral Resources Ltd. MIN AU Mineral Resources Ltd. 7 600549 CH 8 Lynas Corp Ltd LYC AU Lynas Corp Limited 9 000831 CH VI-71
10 600111 CH 11 Merafe Resources Ltd MRF SJ Merafe Resources Limited 12 Cia Ferro Ligas da Bahia FERBASA FES A4 BZ Cia de Ferro Ligas da Bahia Ferbasa 1 Agrium Inc AGU US Agrium Inc 2 Coromandel International Ltd GRIN IN Coromandel International Ltd VI-72
3 FMC Corp FMC US FMC Corp FMC Corp 4 Israel Chemicals Ltd ICL US Israel Chemicals Limited 5 K+S AG SDF GR K+S AG 6 Mosaic Co/The MOS US Mosaic 7 Potash Corp of Saskatchewan Inc. POT US Potash Corporation of Saskatchewan Inc. VI-73
8 Sociedad Quimicay Minera de Chile SA SQM US Sociedad Quimica y Minera de Chile SA SQM100 9 Stonegate Agricom Ltd ST CN Stonegate Agricom Ltd. 10 Vale SA VALE US Vale SA 11 Yara International ASA YAR NO Yara International ASA VI-74
5 (100%) 72,527 127,811 79,149 85,059 鈮 A B C=A+B 15.0% 1.5% 16.5% 591,648 0 591,648 0.0% 15.0% 646,640 0 646,640-1.5% 13.5% 711,102 0 711,102 D E=C-D 15.0% 1.5% 16.5% 0 591,648 0.0% 15.0% 646,640-1.5% 13.5% 711,102 D G=C* 1-D 15.0% 1.5% 17% 0.0% 591,648 0.0% 15% 646,640-1.5% 14% 711,102 VI-75
H I=G+H 15.0% 1.5% 17% 68,870 660,518 0.0% 15% 715,510-1.5% 14% 779,972 660,518 715,510 779,972 (100%) 62,916 72,100 121,008 229,875 421,659 210,127 A B C=A+B 13.0% 1.5% 14.5% 655,289.39 11,848.82 667,138 0% 13.0% 759,869.59 20,870.32 780,740-1.5% 11.5% 897,256.15 37,192.64 934,449 D E=C D 13.0% 1.5% 14.5% 0 667,138 0% 13.0% 780,740-1.5% 11.5% 934,449 VI-76
D G=C*(1 D) 13.0% 1.5% 15% 0.0% 667,138 0% 13% 780,740-1.5% 12% 934,449 H I=G+H 13.0% 1.5% 15% 96,156 763,294 0% 13% 876,896-1.5% 12% 1,030,605 763,294 876,896 1,030,605 VI-77