...1...2...5...1...1...2...5...6...7...9...11...12...19...19...25...32...38...45...47

...54...56...57...61...62...63...64...66...67...67 2

1

320001 1.00 1000 1.0% 1000 1000 5000 0.5% 5000 5000 3 60 100 1.5100 100 1000 1.21000 1000 5000 1.05000 5000 0.5 2

1000 1000 20 2000 60 0.5% 100 3

4

A 65% 30% 5% 45-75% 20-50% 5-10% 5

80/20 80% 20% 80% 20% 1 2 / / 6

/ 3 80% 20% 80% 20% 80% 20% 20% 1 Key Factor Model 40-45% 2 (Core Competence Analysis) ROE 7

3 PEG EV/EBITDA PEG P/E G 3 PEG PEG PEG PORTER 5 10% 8

65% 35% 9

1997 11 14 2000 10 8 2004 6 1 5-1

1997 11 14 2000 10 8 ( ) 5-2

2 100 3 / T T+n T n T 5-3

60 60 5-4

[2004]40 5-5

4013 19 20 2003 12 9 2003 132 1 0755 83026688 0755 83026677 55 1984 1 1 1983 9 17 1710.24 010 66106912 010 66106904 5-6

1 4013 19 20 0755 83026688 0755 83026677 2 3 1 618 021-62580818 177 2 171 021-54033888 3 188 010-65186758 5-7

4 98 021 53594566 4125 5 1030 010-84864818 63266 4013 19 20 0755 83026688 0755 83026677 E 9 / 8610 65171188 8610 65176800 8610 65171188 8610 65176811 1 8610 65246688 5-8

8610 85188298 1 3 2 ( ) 1 2 1 2 T T+2 2 5-9

1000 1000 20 2000 1.0% M M<1000 1.0% 1000 M<5000 0.5% M 5000 1.00 = = + = / 10 5-10

50 1.0% = 100,000 1.0% = 1,000 = 100,000+50-1,000 =99,050 = 99,050/1.00 = 99,050 1000 6,000 0.5% = 10,000,000 0.5% = 50,000 = 10,000,000+6,000-50,000=9,956,000 = 9,956,000/1.00 = 9,956,000 2 100 30 20 100 20 5,000 60 100 60 5,000 5-11

1 60 3 2 9 30 11 30 1 00 3 00 9 30 11 30 1 00 5 00 3 3 1 2 3 3 5-12

4 1 2 T T+1 T 2 3 T 7 1 1000 1000 2 20 2000 3 100 4 3 5-13

1 2 M M<100 1.5% 100 M<1000 1.2% 1000 M<5000 1.0% M 5000 0.5% 3 4 0.5 N N<1 0.5% 1 N<3 0.3% N 3 0 5 ( ) 5-14

6 3 1 T 10 1.5% 1.2000 = 100,000 1.5% = 1,500 = 100,000-1,500 =98,500 = 98,500/1.2000 = 82,083.33 1000 1.0% 1.2000 = 10,000,000 1.0% = 100,000 = 10,000,000-100,000=9,900,000 = 9,900,000/1.2000 = 8,250,000 2 T 2 10 1.2000 1.2000 100,000= 120,000 = 120,000 0.3% = 360 5-15

=120,000 360 = 119,640 3 T T 1 4 5 6 T+1 T+2 T+1 3 1 1 2 5-16

3 4 5 1 4 2 1 2 3 4 3 20 3 4 1 10 2 5-17

1 2 10 3 3 20 5-18

3 -- [2003]132 1 5-19

32 23 1 1952 1956 1964 1937 1941 5-20

1941 2 1959 1944 1982 1971 3 1964 2002 10 1967 2002 10 1968 2002 10 4 1968 1995 5-21

1995 7 2003 9 1972 1996 1996 10 2002 6 2002 6 2003 9 1 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 5-22

12 13 14 2 1 2, 3 4 5 6, 7, 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 5-23

15 16 15 17 18, 19 20 21 22 23 24 1 1 2 3 50% 4 2 5-24

1 2 3 4 5 5 1 5-25

1 2 3 4 5 6 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 5-26

3 1 2 3 4 5 4 1 a b c d 2, a b c, d,, 5-27

(3) Var 1,, 1 2 3-4 5 5-28

6 2 1 2 3 4 5 3 1 2 a : I) 5-29

II) III) b. c. 5-30

d. e. f. 1, 2, 5-31

1 55 1984 1 1 1983 9 17 1710.24 010-66106912 2 2.6 810 4 100 45 50 500 2002 3 2002 4.06 2.96 4.8 5-32

4 1998 2 QFII 50 5 2003 500 180 100 28 1. 2 3 1 2 3 5-33

4 5 6 4 5 1 2 3 4 6 1998 2 1 5-34

2 3 4 1 (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) 2 1 2 3 4 5 5-35

6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 15 16 17 5-36

18 19 20 21 22 23 1 1 2 3 50% 4 2 1 2 3 4 5 5-37

5 1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 3 1 2 3 4 5 5-38

6 10% 10% 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 1 2 3 4 5 6 5-39

1 2 3 10% 10% 1. 30 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 2. 1. 5-40

1 2 50% 50% 2. 1 2 3 50% 50% 4 5 3. 10 4. 1 5-41

2 50% 50% 5. 1 2 3 50% 50% 4 5 1 10% 10% 10 5-42

, 5 5 5 1 2 10% 10% 20% 20% 2 (1) 5-43

50% 50% (2) 1. 2. (1) 50% 50% 2 (2) 3. 4. 5. 1 (1) 5-44

(2) (3) (4) 2 5 5-45

1 T+5 2 20 3 30 1 6 0755 83026888 2 http://www.lionfund.com.cn 3 5-46

65% 35% A 65% 30% 5% 45-75% 20-50% 5-10% 80/20 80% 20% 5-47

80% 20% 1 2 / / / 5-48

3 80% 20% 80% 20% 80% 20% 20% 1 Key Factor Model 40-45% 2 (Core Competence Analysis) ROE 5-49

3 PEG EV/EBITDA PEG P/E G 3 PEG PEG PEG PORTER 5 10% 5-50

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 1 80% 2 20% 3 10% 4 10% 5 5-51

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 1 2 1 2 3 5-52

4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 3 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 5-53

13 14 15 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 1 2 5-54

3 4 5 6 1 2 3 4 5-55

5 6 7 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 1 2 3 5-56

1 A. 5-57

B. 2 3 4 5 4 5-58

0.5% 1 2 1 2 3 5-59

4 5 6 7 3 1 2 3 4 5 0.5% 5-60

1 2 1 4 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 1 1.5% H=E 1.5% H E 5-61

2 0.25% H E 0.25% H E 3 3 7 5-62

1 90% 2 3 3, 4 5 6 7 8 1 2 1 1 12 31 5-63

3 4 5 6 7 1 2 3 5 90 60 1 5-64

2 3 4 30 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 15 15 http://www.lionfund.com.cn 5-65

1 60 100 60 5000 2 3 4 5 6 1 30 2 3 1 2 3 4 5-66

5 6 7 5 3 15 5-67

5-68