Tenke Fungurume C00069-6-r1 VI-1
C00069-6-r1 251 2 +852 2511 2011 +852 2511 2005 hk@censere.com www.censere.com Tenke Fungurume - Tenke CMOC Freeport Freeport-McMoRan DRC Holdings Ltd.100%Freeport56%Tenke CMOC 18 18 CMOC 18 VALMIN VI-2
44.8 51.0 58.5 56% 25.1 28.6 32.8 Brett Shadbolt VI-3
1. Stratiqa 19 Stratiqa Brett Shadbolt Brett Shadbolt30 (NYU Stern) Brett(Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors) Energy Risk Professional of GARP (Australasian Instit ute of Mining and Metallurgy)Brett Albidon Limited Terratech Group Ltd Sino Vanadium Inc. Ultro Technologies Ltd Adventus Holdings AMD ExxonMobil Keppel Corporation Quam VI-4
2.... VI-2 1.... VI-4 2.... VI-5 3..... VI-7 4.... VI-11 4.1.... VI-11 4.2 VALMIN... VI-12 4.3.... VI-12 4.4.... VI-14 4.5.... VI-14 5..... VI-14 6..... VI-16 7.... VI-16 8.... VI-17 9.... VI-18 9.1... VI-18 9.2 Tenke Fungurume -.... VI-18 9.3.... VI-23 9.4.... VI-23 10..... VI-24 10.1... VI-25 10.2.... VI-26 11.... VI-27 11.1... VI-27 11.2.... VI-28 11.3.... VI-30 11.4... VI-31 11.5... VI-32 11.6.... VI-32 11.7... VI-32 11.8.... VI-33 11.9... VI-33 11.10... VI-33 VI-5
12.... VI-37 12.1.... VI-37 12.2.... VI-38 12.3... VI-38 12.4... VI-38 13..... VI-39 13.1.... VI-39 13.2... VI-39 14.... VI-40 14.1... VI-40 14.2.... VI-43 14.3... VI-45 15.... VI-46 16.... VI-47 1.... VI-47 2.... VI-48 3... VI-51 4... VI-55 5.... VI-57 6.... VI-63 VI-6
3. % CAPM CHIP CMOC Runge Pincock Minarco CPR Runge Pincock Minarco CRU CRU International Ltd. Freeport Freeport-McMoRan Inc. VI-7
JORC CMOC Freeport VALMIN VI-8
Mt VI-9
Tenke Tenke Fungurume - VALMIN (Code for Technical Assessment and Valuation of Mineral and Petroleum Assets and Securities for Independent Expert Reports) VALMIN WACC VI-10
4. 4.1 56% TF Holdings Limited 449.66335.306 198199 Tenke 123 448 38,060 9707 405 34,407 9708 134 11,384 987 83,851 Fungurume 159 435 36,955 4728 135 11,469 4729 322 27,356 892 75,780 Etude Kabinda Advocats DRC VI-11
4.2 VALMIN Tenke 18 18 VALMIN 4.3 VALMIN VALMIN VI-12
Runge Pincock Minarco Etude Kabinda Advocats DRC VI-13
4.4 4.5 5. Runge Pincock Minarco Etude Kabinda Advocats DRC TF Holdings Limited Freeport-McMoRan DRC Holdings Ltd. Tenke VI-14
CMOC Mining USA LtdChen Ching-Yung CMOC Runge Pincock MinarcoJeremy Clark Damodaran 18 VALMIN VALMIN JORC CRU WoodMackenzie (Bloomberg) VI-15
6. 7. VI-16
CPRCPR CPR 8. VI-17
9. 9.1 CMOCFreeport Freeport 56 9.2 Tenke Fungurume - Tenke Fungurume - 175 Tenke 123 448 38,060 9707 405 34,407 9708 134 11,384 987 83,851 Fungurume 159 435 36,955 4728 135 11,469 4729 322 27,356 892 75,780 Etude Kabinda Advocats DRC VI-18
CPR SX-EW 540 SX-EW 5 LOM15 26 CPR 99.9 38% Freeport VI-19
TF Holdings Limited 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 265,151 280,796 347,606 462,742 446,761 449,663 20,337 24,652 25,726 28,111 29,396 35,306 CPR, Mt 125.8 57.3 183.1 TCu % 2.5 2.7 2.6 AsCu % 2.2 2.4 2.3 TCo % 0.32 0.3 0.31 AsCo % 0.26 0.24 0.25 TCu Mlbs 6,944.2 3,457.3 10,401.5 TCo Mlbs 882.0 372.5 1254.4 CPR TCu/TCo AsCu/AsCo VI-20
TCu TCo AsCu AsCo 0.8 0.8 0.54 0.5 0.47 1.1 0.7 0.56 0.4 0.48 0.7 0.4 0.49 0.3 0.42 2.6 0.6 0.53 0.4 0.46 115 3.0 0.31 2.7 0.24 114.3 2.6 0.27 2.3 0.21 31.2 2.9 0.19 1.9 0.16 260.4 2.7 0.28 2.4 0.22 42.3 3.4 0.28 1.6 0.17 69.8 2.9 0.25 1.4 0.15 22 2.2 0.23 1.1 0.13 134.1 3.0 0.26 1.4 0.15 13 4.3 0.28 0.7 0.11 20.5 3.5 0.21 0.6 0.07 10.5 2.8 0.15 0.3 0.03 43.9 3.6 0.22 0.6 0.07 VI-21
TCu TCo AsCu AsCo 3.7 3.0 0.34 2.64 0.25 26.4 3.0 0.29 2.68 0.22 13.2 3.2 0.28 2.78 0.19 43.3 3.1 0.29 2.71 0.21 5.8 3.4 0.20 1.71 0.12 59.3 3.2 0.26 1.52 0.15 155.9 3.0 0.3 1.43 0.16 221 3.1 0.28 1.46 0.16 1.0 3.2 0.31 0.6 0.06 25.4 2.9 0.22 0.8 0.04 91.8 3.0 0.25 0.8 0.05 118.2 3.0 0.25 0.8 0.05, CPR 18 11.10 VI-22
9.3 Brett Shadbolt 1 2 Etude Kabinda Advocats DRCEtude Kabinda Advocats DRC 9.4 CHIPSXEW PLSCHIP VI-23
10. () VI-24
10.1 CF 1 CF 2 DCF = + +... (1+r) 1 (1+r) 2 + CF n (1+r) n CF = r = n = (1) (2) = + = CHIP VI-25
WACC 11.9 10.2 (1) (2) VI-26
(3) 11. 11.1 Tenke Tenke 7 26 231 30% Wood MacKenzie Wood MacKenzie CRU International Limited VI-27
11.2 Wood Mackenzie Tenke 4,858 4,858 5,175 1.54% 5,255 5,324 2.37% 5,534 5,732 2.49% 6,106 6,504 2.34% 7,090 7,165 2.16% 7,980 8,047 3.00% 9,231 7,937 3.00% 9,378 7,496 3.00% 9,123 7,275 3.00% 9,120 7,275 3.00% 9,394 7,275 3.00% 9,675 7,275 3.00% 9,966 7,275 3.00% 10,265 7,275 3.00% 10,573 7,275 3.00% 10,890 7,275 3.00% 11,217 7,275 3.00% 11,553 7,275 3.00% 11,900 7,275 3.00% 12,257 Wood Mackenzie 3% VI-28
CRU (CRU) 6.01 6.01 6.37 5.9% 6.72 5.6% 7.12 5.9% 7.70 8.2% : CRU 5 402494 463 16 894.05 183.1 261.2 24.330.3 12.846.2 3.3 944 0.4183.1 261.2 VI-29
11.3 : 571,302 746,258 757,620 763,781 793,916 763,200 763,033 818,831 831,294 770,305 861,555 826,521 916,099 738,665 715,668 879,010 857,942 853,779 902,099 914,786 931,900 1,010,208 703,475 485,447 501,380 515,010 530,461 546,374 564,308 579,649 597,038 614,949 635,133 652,400 82,923 : VI-30
167,462 68,656 189,446 92,095 86,978 55,745 43,821 110,590 114,805 65,170 59,993 132,071 108,943 35,722 87,093 88,355 21,849 94,636 94,412 23,404 127,367 101,702 19,844 18,693 15,067 24,682 15,540 16,006 16,486 16,981 17,490 18,015 18,555 19,112 19,685 : 11.4 Tenke 12.5% WACC VI-31
11.5 47Mt 5.4Mt 97%AsCu 94% AsCo = CF n +1 1- (1+r)-n/r CFn+1 = N 1 r = n = 11.6 11.7 VI-32
11.8 WACC 1.5% 44.2 49.4 55.9 11.9 44.255.9 49.456% 27.7 5 11.10 VI-33
5% 100% 56% +5% 35.3 19.7 49.4 27.7-5% 79.4 44.5 15% 100% 56% -15% 35.4 19.6 49.4 27.7 +15% 63.3 35.5 15% 100% 56% -15% 41.2 23.1 49.4 27.7 +15% 57.5 32.2 VI-34
15% 100% 56% -15% 43.6 24.4 49.4 27.7 +15% 55.2 30.9 15% 100% 56% +15% 48.2 27.0 49.4 27.7-15% 50.6 28.3 VI-35
(-/+5%) 7.5% 17.5% (+/-15%) 115% 85% (+/-15%) 115% 85% (-/+15%) 85% 115% (-/+15%) 85% 115% (100%) 129 16.1 (56%) 72.4 9 18 4.43 4.96 5.64 56% 2.48 2.78 3.16 VI-36
(-/+5%) 7.5% 17.5% (+/-15%) 115% 85% (+/-15%) 115% 85% (-/+15%) 85% 115% (-/+15%) 85% 115% (100%) 132 16.1 (56%) 74 9 12. 12.1 Las Bambas 5.85 3.14 4.90 2.50 Kamoa 0.41 9.95 1.94 (IVN) (50%) PanAust Limited Frieda River 0.08 3.18 2.19 3.06 Alsons Prime Indophil Resources 0.36 2.55 2.18 1.01 Investments NL Limited First Quantum Inmet Mining 5.09 14.7 8.46 Minerals Ltd. Group 25 0.010100% 166 VI-37
6 12.2 050 67.5 165.6 263.8 12.3 67.5 263.8 165.656% 93 6 12.4 0% 0.004 67,483 25% 0.010 165,622 50% 0.016 263,761 VI-38
18 140.7 345.4 550.1 56% 78.8 193.4 308.1 13. 13.1 Tenke100% 44.858.551.0 56%25.132.828.6 44.8 51.0 58.5 56% 25.1 28.6 32.8 13.2 VI-39
14. 14.1 14.1.1 VI-40
14.1.2 VI-41
14.1.3 14.1.4 14.1.5 IT CMOC VI-42
14.1.6 CMOC CMOC 14.2 14.2.1 VI-43
14.2.2 VI-44
14.2.3 14.3 14.3.1 VI-45
15. VI-46
16. 1 Tenke CPR VI-47
附錄六 估值報告 附錄2 照片 Tenke 粉碎線 資料來源 信協 礦場 資料來源 信協 VI-48
附錄六 估值報告 主要粉碎機傳送帶 資料來源 信協 集中器及半自磨機 資料來源 信協 VI-49
附錄六 估值報告 制酸一廠及制酸二廠 資料來源 信協 VI-50
3 WACC) =K e * W e + K d * (1 - t) * W d K e = K d = W e = W d = t = WACC WACC33/67WACC K e = R f + [R m R f ] + K e = R f = = R m = = Epsilon, VI-51
a 9.1% 1.8% b 16.1% 6.0% c 0.90 0.90 d 2.07 2.07 e=a+d*b 42.3% 14.2% Epsilon f 5% 5% 47.3% 19.2% 33.3% 66.7% 15.9% 12.8% 28.6% a: b: Damodaran c: d: / f: Epsilon VI-52
4 1- % % % % % 1 41.78% 58.2% 2.1% 40.0% 0.83% 2 Freeport-McMoRan Inc 38.39% 61.6% 4.4% 60.0% 2.63% 3 Ivanhoe Mines Ltd 95.05% 5.0% 2.3% 73.5% 1.71% 4 Katanga Mining Ltd 6.89% 93.1% -0.9% 165.1% -0.57% 5 Tiger Resources Ltd 25.83% 74.2% 3.4% 70.0% 2.37% 41.6% 58.4% 2.3% 61.7% 1.4% 35% 65% D(%)/E(%) 1 2.80 139.4% 60.00% 1.80 2 Freeport-McMoRan Inc 2.06 160.5% 40.00% 1.05 3 Ivanhoe Mines Ltd 1.28 5.2% 26.50% 1.23 4 Katanga Mining Ltd 1.40 1352.0% 17.92% 0.12 5 Tiger Resources Ltd 1.46 287.2% 30.00% 0.49 1.80 388.8% 34.9% 0.94 1.86 30.0% 0.90% VI-53
n 10.50% 3.50% 33.3% 66.7% 3.50% 2.33% 5.83% n. 10.5 WACC 35% 65% WACC WACC = K e * W e + K d * (1-t) * W d = 28.6% * 35% + 5.8% * (1 30%) * 65% = 12.5% () VI-54
4 1. First Quantum Minerals Ltd FM CN First Quantum Minerals Ltd Kansanshi 80 100 Bwana/Lonshi First Quantum Minerals Ltd Mopani16.9 NkanaMufulira 2. Freeport-McMoRan Inc FCX US Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX) Morenci Cerro Verde Grasberg Tenke Fungurume the Rod & Refining VI-55
3. Ivanhoe Mines Ltd IVN CN Ivanhoe Mines Ltd. Bushveld Platreef Kamoa Kipushi KamoaPlatreef Kipushi Kamoa Platreef Bushveld Kipushi 4. Katanga Mining Ltd KAT CN Katanga Mining Ltd 5. Tiger Resources Ltd TGS AU Tiger Resources Ltd KipoiLupotoLa Patience Permit VI-56
5 1,033,083 1,349,754 1,370,000 1,347,972 1,430,983 1,650,488 1,717,824 1,850,505 1,967,918 1,994,884 1,640,172 1,874,933 1,888,904 1,971,212 1,350,361 1,206,540 1,384,050 1,473,715 1,438,693 1,524,558 480,354 705,483 630,972 634,714 651,632 680,807 658,471 667,366 702,980 671,418 636,947 706,212 677,109 742,765 614,393 604,634 754,996 741,451 736,943 774,430 EBITDA 552,729 644,271 739,028 713,258 779,351 969,681 1,059,354 1,183,139 1,264,938 1,323,466 1,003,224 1,168,722 1,211,795 1,228,446 735,969 601,907 629,053 732,263 701,750 750,128 90,948 142,749 115,286 122,906 112,149 113,109 104,730 95,667 115,851 159,876 133,358 155,343 149,412 173,334 124,272 111,034 124,014 116,491 116,836 127,669 EBIT 461,781 501,522 623,741 590,352 667,202 856,572 954,624 1,087,473 1,149,087 1,163,591 869,867 1,013,379 1,062,383 1,055,112 611,697 490,872 505,039 615,773 584,914 622,459 EBITDA 53.5% 47.7% 53.9% 52.9% 54.5% 58.8% 61.7% 63.9% 64.3% 66.3% 61.2% 62.3% 64.2% 62.3% 54.5% 49.9% 45.5% 49.7% 48.8% 49.2% EBIT 44.7% 37.2% 45.5% 43.8% 46.6% 51.9% 55.6% 58.8% 58.4% 58.3% 53.0% 54.0% 56.2% 53.5% 45.3% 40.7% 36.5% 41.8% 40.7% 40.8% 2.5% 32.6% 1.6% 6.2% 15.3% 4.1% 7.7% 6.3% 1.4% 17.8% 14.3% 0.7% 4.4% 31.5% 10.7% 14.7% 6.5% 2.4% 6.0% EBITDA 33.7% 33.7% 3.5% 9.3% 24.4% 9.2% 11.7% 6.9% 4.6% 24.2% 16.5% 3.7% 1.4% 40.1% 18.2% 4.5% 16.4% 4.2% 6.9% EBIT 80.2% 35.1% 5.4% 13.0% 28.4% 11.4% 13.9% 5.7% 1.3% 25.2% 16.5% 4.8% 0.7% 42.0% 19.8% 2.9% 21.9% 5.0% 6.4% VI-57
1,624,258 1,646,401 1,697,982 1,395,531 1,156,435 1,194,391 1,226,862 1,263,668 1,301,578 1,344,298 1,380,844 1,422,269 1,464,937 1,513,019 1,554,152 1,600,777 787,874 784,284 860,425 560,942 358,614 372,828 384,342 398,067 411,982 427,187 440,074 453,967 467,377 480,961 489,092 488,979 EBITDA 836,384 862,117 837,557 834,589 797,821 821,564 842,520 865,601 889,596 917,111 940,770 968,302 997,560 1,032,059 1,065,060 1,111,797 126,912 147,616 149,783 142,534 126,832 128,552 130,668 132,394 134,393 137,121 139,575 143,071 147,572 154,172 163,307 182,992 EBIT 709,472 714,501 687,774 692,055 670,988 693,012 711,852 733,207 755,203 779,991 801,195 825,231 849,988 877,886 901,752 928,805 EBITDA 51.5% 52.4% 49.3% 59.8% 69.0% 68.8% 68.7% 68.5% 68.3% 68.2% 68.1% 68.1% 68.1% 68.2% 68.5% 69.5% EBIT 43.7% 43.4% 40.5% 49.6% 58.0% 58.0% 58.0% 58.0% 58.0% 58.0% 58.0% 58.0% 58.0% 58.0% 58.0% 58.0% 6.5% 1.4% 3.1% 17.8% 17.1% 3.3% 2.7% 3.0% 3.0% 3.3% 2.7% 3.0% 3.0% 3.3% 2.7% 3.0% EBITDA 11.5% 3.1% 2.8% 0.4% 4.4% 3.0% 2.6% 2.7% 2.8% 3.1% 2.6% 2.9% 3.0% 3.5% 3.2% 4.4% EBIT 14.0% 0.7% 3.7% 0.6% 3.0% 3.3% 2.7% 3.0% 3.0% 3.3% 2.7% 3.0% 3.0% 3.3% 2.7% 3.0% VI-58
FCFF EBIT 461,781 623,741 590,352 667,202 856,572 954,624 1,087,473 1,149,087 1,163,591 869,867 1,013,379 138,534 187,122 177,105 200,161 256,972 286,387 326,242 344,726 349,077 260,960 304,014 90,948 115,286 122,906 112,149 113,109 104,730 95,667 115,851 159,876 133,358 155,343 167,462 68,656 189,446 92,095 86,978 55,745 43,821 110,590 114,805 65,170 59,993 (43,914) (8,819) 5,974 4,967 20,901 (16,008) 2,320 33,442 7,483 (40,671) 55.467 FCFF 290,647 492,068 340,732 482,129 604,830 733,230 810,757 776,180 852,101 717,765 749,248 VI-59
EBIT 1,062,383 1,055,112 611,697 490,872 505,039 615,773 584,914 622,459 709,472 714,501 687,774 318,715 316,534 183,509 147,262 151,512 184,732 175,474 186,738 212,842 214,350 206,332 149,412 173,334 124,272 111,034 124,014 116,491 116,836 127,669 126,912 147,616 149,783 132,071 108,943 35,722 87,093 88,355 21,849 94,636 94,412 23,404 127,367 101,702 (19,401) 51,755 (110,846) (15,519) 94,873 (10,189) (2,973) 28,672 8,932 10,005 44,873 FCFF 780,410 751,214 627,583 383,071 294,314 535,872 434,613 440,307 591,206 510,394 484,650 VI-60
FCFF EBIT 692,055 670,988 693,012 711,852 733,207 755,203 779,991 801,195 825,231 849,988 877,886 901,752 901,752 207,617 201,297 207,903 213,555 219,962 226,561 233,997 240,359 247,569 254,996 263,366 270,526 270,526 142,534 126,832 128,552 130,668 132,394 134,393 137,121 139,575 143,071 147,572 154,172 163,307 19,112 19,844 18,693 15,067 24,682 15,540 16,006 16,486 16,981 17,490 18,015 18,555 19,112 19,112 (177,595)(126,675) 9,630 8,238 9,338 9,618 10,839 9,272 10,510 10,825 12,199 10,436 10,436 FCFF 784,724 704,506 588,963 596,044 620,761 637,411 655,790 674,159 692,733 713,723 737,939 764,986 620,791 VI-61
A B C=A+B -1.5% 11.0% 5,475,770 115,309.18 5,591,078.85 12.5% 0% 12.5% 4,869,033 69,620.71 4,938,653.46 1.5% 14.0% 4,372,804 42,362.02 4,415,166.32 D E=C*(1-D) -1.5% 11.0% 5,591,078.85 4,415,166 4,938,653 5,591,079 12.5% 0% 12.5% 4,938,653.46 1.5% 14.0% 4,415,166.32 56% 2,472,493 2,765,646 3,131,004 VI-62
6 / / 2014/7/31 La s Bambas 5.85 3.14 4.90 2.50 10.49 0.253 2015/12/8 Ka moa 0.41 9.95 1.94 11.89 0.016 (IVN) (50%) 2014/8/25 PanAust Limited 0.08 3.18 2.19 3.06 8.46 0.004 2015/1/23 Al sons Prime In dophil Resources 0.36 2.55 2.18 1.01 5.74 0.029 Investments Corporation NL 2013/4/9 5.09 14.70 8.46 23.16 0.100 / + / 0.010 16,788,300 165,622 VI-63