Vol. 42 No. 2 March Population Research 1984 ~ 2050 * ~ Estimation and Prediction of China s Agricultur

Size: px

Start display at page:

Download "Vol. 42 No. 2 March Population Research 1984 ~ 2050 * ~ Estimation and Prediction of China s Agricultur"

领从蓝
5 years ago
Views:

1 Vol. 42No. 2 March Populatio Research 1984 ~ 2050 * ~ Estimatio ad Predictio of Chia s Agricultural Surplus Labor Stock i Zhao Weiju Jiao Bilog Ha Yuayua AbstractIt has bee cotroversial i measurig stock of agricultural surplus labor usig ma-days coversio method due to differet defiitios of reasoable ad effective ma-days of the agricultural labor force. I this paper we make correctios to the ma-days coversio method by costructig the utility madays coversio model. The seasoal idex ad the weather chagig idex are itroduced to determie the reasoable workig load ma-days. O the premise of utility maximizatio of par cosciousess the utility maximizatio ma-days is determied. Agricultural labor force kowledge coefficiet ad agricultural techology idex are itroduced to determie the effective ma-days of agricultural labor force. The surplus madays are determied o the basis of reasoable workig load ma-days ad effective ma-days. The agricultural surplus labor time is coverted ito the quatity of agriculture surplus labor force through two kids of represetatio of productivity. I additio Chia s agricultural surplus labor stock i 1984 ~ 2050 is estimated ad predicted by the model. The aalyses are evaluated by comparig the results with those of other scholars. KeywordsMa-days Coversio Method Agricultural Surplus Labor Force Agricultural Surplus Labor Time Utility Ma-days Coversio Model Utility Maximizatio AuthorsZhao Weiju is PhD Cadidate School of Ecoomics Shaxi Uiversity of Fiace ad Ecoomics @ 139. com. Jiao Bilog is Professor Shaxi Uiversity of Fiace ad Ecoomics Vice Director of the Developmet Research Ceter of Shaxi Provice People s Govermet. Ha Yuayua is Lecturer School of Ecoomics Shaxi Uiversity of Fiace ad Ecoomics. * 16CJL

2 ~ Taylor ~ = = - / = L t = i M ijt S ijt j L M S i

3 56 42 j t L t = i m ijt Q ijt /y ijt 2 j m y Q i j t L i t= S i td i t/mt Lt= L i t= S i td i t/mt L i t i t S i t i t D i t i t Mt Lt t L bt = L at - S it Q it /K/ S it V it /A t L bt L at t i S it Q it K V it A t θ i i X θ = θ i = 365 X i δ i i M

4 ~ δ = δ i = 365 M i 7 T = θ 1 - δ Q = fl K K珔 L Q = fl K 珔 1 Figure 1 1 The Output Curve of Productio Fuctio of a Variable Factor Y Y 1 M MP L = 0 Y 2 N

5 58 42 MP L = 0 L 1 L 2 1 L 2 2 Figure 2 2 The Idifferece Curve of Labor 2 U H H 0 W 1

6 ~ W' 1 W 2 W' 2 = / W' W = W' ( 16 - H ) 0 W' 1 > W' 2 U E ON OP F OM OR OM < ON OR > OP 16 - H 0 H 0 i 365H e /8 i = T k e = 1 365H e 8 k i 9 i e i = N

7 60 42 ε e 0 ε 1 e λ λ λ λ i λ = = k ε e e = 1 k i i e i 0 λ i 1 λ i = 0 λ φ φ = 0. 4A A A 3 11 φ % A 1 % A 2 % A 3 % λ φ λ φ T = T 1 - λ 1 - φ= k e = 1 365H e 8 k i λ 1 - φ 12

8 ~ T = T - T = θ 1 - δ- k e = 1 365H e 8 k i 1 - λ 1 - φ = = T m ρ 1j j = 1 t L = Y i m ρ 2j j = 1 t L = T ρ 1 ρ 2 = Y 14 i ρ 1j i j ρ 1 ρ ρ 2j i j ρ 2 ρ 2 Y L ~ ~ θ ~ ~ ~

9 62 42 θ = X /365 = 143 /365 = δ 24 10mm 10 ~ 24. 9mm 25 ~ 49. 9mm 50 ~ 99. 9mm 100 ~ 250mm 250mm 25mm M 25 δ M T λ λ = 0 λ = 1 λ = 5 T t i R i 17 λ = T = 1 t i R i t i t 1 = 1 t 2 = 6 t 3 = 9 t 4 = 12 t 5 = 16 R i φ T T T 3. 2 ρ 1 ρ L

10 ~ ~ 2015 L Table 1 Estimatio Results of L Agricultural Surplus Labor Forcei L % δ T 2 λ 3 φ 1984 ~ ρ 1 ρ 2 5 = - L = L / 3. 3 θ δ T 250 λ φ ρ 1 ρ 2

11 64 42 θ δ λ ρ 1 ρ 2 L T φ φ L T 250 L L φ L T 250 L L T φ Table 2 2 Comparig Differet Measurig Methods ad Results of Agricultural Surplus Labor Force ~ ~ ~ β β = β = ~ ~ ~ 2015 SPSS19. 0

12 ~ θ δ λ φ ~ Table 3 3 Fittig Models ad Regressio Equatios of Historical Tred Extrapolatio of the Parameters P F R 2 λ λ = t /t φ S φ = e E - 5t 3 1 S 2R 2 F 3P θ δ 2016 ~ 2050 θ = δ 30 δ = M /365 5 ρ 1 = /365 ρ 2 = / ρ 1 ρ 2 = /365 1 θ δ λ φ θ δ λ φ 2050 L 2050 φ φ φ φ φ 2 λ 2024 λ λ λ %

13 % ~ 3. 05% % 1. 05% ~ 1. 24% % 1. 43% ~ 1. 63% % % ~ 2050 L Table 4 Predictio Results of L Agricultural Surplus Labor Forcei L % φ % φ = 99% 3 T ~ 2050 L L

14 ~ λ L λ L λ λ 1 λ L 2 λ L ~ ~ 2050 L Figure 3 The Chagig Tred of L Agricultural Surplus Labor Forcei L 2015 ~ L 2015 ~ 2016 t 1984 ~ ~ ~ ρ 1 ρ 2 ρ 1 ρ 2 = /365 L = T ρ 1 ρ 2 L θ δ λ φ T L T T φ λ T L L L λ λ L = - L

15 ~ ~ % ~ % θ δ λ φ /Refereces 1 Taylor J. R Rural Employmet Treds ad the Legacy of Surplus Labor The Chia Quarterly Ma Xiaohe ad Ma Jialei How Much is Rural Surplus Labor Force i ChiaChiese Rural Ecoomy Zhog Yu ad La Haitao Aalysis o Rural Surplus LaborState ad Tred. Chiese Joural of Populatio Sciece Meg Ligguo ad Liu Weiwei A Study o the Quatity ad Age Structure of Chia s Rural Surplus Labor Force Based o the Data from 2002 to Ecoomist Du Xigdua Che Cheg ad Li Xiao Estimatio of Sichua Rural Surplus Labor ad Policy Recommedatios. Joural of Souther Agriculture Cai Fag ad Wag Meiya Re-examiig Rural Labor Surplus ad Its Relevat FactsBased o Couterfactual Measuremet Method. Chiese Rural Ecoomy Shi Ruohua A Study of the Trasfer Problem of Rural Surplus Labor Force i Chia. Chiese Prospect Press Thomas Rawski ad Robert Meade A Study of the Quatity of Agricultural Labor Force i Chia. Chia Rural Survey

16 ~ Suo Ruixia Wag Fuli ad Su Xu A Study o the Aalysis ad Improvemet of Labor-Days Method of Rural Surplus Labor Force Estimatio. Mathematics i Practice ad Theory We Qig The Latest Estimatio of Chia s Rural Surplus Labor Force ad Policy Implicatios. Southwest Fiace Wag Jiagui ad Dig Shouhai How Much is Surplus Agricultural Labor i Chia. Social Scieces i Chia Cetral Compilatio ad Traslatio Bureau Complete Works of Karl Marx ad Frederick Egels Volume 23. Remi Press Wag Shudog Reflectios o the Relatios of Marx s Simple ad Complex Labor. Fiace ad Trade Research Shao Yami The Experiece of the U. S. -Japa Agricultural Techology Progress ad the Choice of Chia s Agricultural Techology Advacemet Patter. Northeast Asia Forum NY /T The Miistry of Agriculture of the People s Republic of Chia NY /T Evaluatio for the Level of Agriculture Mechaizatio. Chia Stadard Press. 16 W Thodore W. Schults Ivestmet i Huma Capital. The Commercial Press Li Xiaoma ad Zeg Xiagqua New Theory of Huma Capital-Dyamic Research Based o the Huma Capital Theory of the Ability. Ecoomic Perspectives Wag Hoglig Estimatio Methods ad Empirical Aalysis of the Quatity of Agricultural Surplus Labor Force. E- coomic Research Joural Wag Guoxia Study o the Trasfer of Rural Surplus Labor i ChiaThe Quatity Estimatio of Rural Surplus Labor ad the Predictio of Its Trasfer Scale. Joural of Shaxi Uiversity Philosophy ad Social Sciece Editio Guo Jixig The Estimatio of Surplus Labor i Chiese Agriculture i A Stochastic Frotier Approach. Nakai Ecoomic Studies Zhou Jia Research of Defiitio ad Estimatio Methods of Chiese Rural Surplus Labor Force. Social Sciece Frot Wag Chuzhi ad Zhao Guojie A New Calculatio Method of Agricultural Surplus Labor Force. Statistics & Decisio

三农研究

三农研究中国农学通报 2014,30(34):315-320 Chiese Agricultural Sciece Bulleti 基于 DEA 的甘肃农业产业化国家重点龙头企业绩效评价王铁, 杨林娟, 王霖, 辛文文 ( 甘肃农业大学经济管理学院, 兰州 730070) 摘要 : 运用数据包络分析方