,, (Tiebout) (Oates) (federalism) GDP,, [1][2] [12] (Jinetal),,,, [3] (ZhangandZou) [13],,,, [4] [14] (LiandLiu), (Goldsmith) [5] (FIR), 1994, [

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1 * [ ] (co-integration model), (FMOLS), [ ] ; ; ; ; , 9.8%,,, ( ),, 30,,,,,,,,, *, :430072, :yingma9494@126.com;, ; (13JJD790021), 5

2 ,, (Tiebout) (Oates) (federalism) GDP,, [1][2] [12] (Jinetal),,,, [3] (ZhangandZou) [13],,,, [4] [14] (LiandLiu), (Goldsmith) [5] (FIR), 1994, [15] , (KingandLevine) ,, [16][17], (Demetriadesand Hus- [6] GDP sein) 16 GDP,,, [7], [18],,1994 (Levineetal) ( ), [8] GDP, 1994 [9], [19] (RiojaandVa- lev) [10] 6, [11] ( )

3 [20] (ZhangandJin),, GDP, (amissinglink),, [21], GDP, [28] [22] GDP [23],, [29], [24], GDP [30], , [25],,,, [26],, [31],,, [27], : ; ;,,

4 ,, , 1994,, 20 70, ;,, 1978 [32],1980, , GDP, [33], 30,,,,, :,, 1979, ,, , ; :,,, 8

5 :,,,,,,,,,,,, 1985,,, [36][37][38],, [34] 20 90,,,, ( ), [35] 2000, GDP, 2008,,, 1 :, [39] (Pedroni), : 1,,,,, 9

6 perrgdp it =αit +β 1itDecenrateit +β 2itChannelrateit + β 3itFinanrateit +β 4itRDVGIOit + μ it x it =x it-1 +εit (1),x it = (Decenrate it,channelrate it,finan- rate it,rdvgio it ) ; i ( );t ; μ it ( ) 1.perRGDP GDP 1978,, ( ), ( ) ; ( ) Channelrate ( ),, Bank [17],Channelrate, 1978, GDP 2.Decenrate, 4.Finanrate, ( ), ( )GDP [4],, GDP,,,, Decenrate, ( ),,Decenrate 1 5.RDVGIO (realdiferentiatedvalueofgross 3.Channelrate industrialoutput) ( ) 1, ( )Finanrate,, ,1999 ( ) 1999, ( ), , ( ) , ,, ( ) 10

7 , ( ), :(1),, (2) 1998,, ,,, 1978,, RDVGIO, [21], , perrgdpi,decenratei,channelratei,, FinanrateI RDVGIOI, Rats7.0 ( ) 28 ( ), 1 1 perrgdp Decenrate Channelrate Finanrate RDVGIO ( ) (1), 5 5 ( ), (1), (Pedroni) [41], 5 I (1),, 3 (Imetal) [40] 3, 7,, 2 5 1% 5, Panelrho-stat Grouprho-, 5 stat, P ;,, 5 5%, 5, 5 I (1) 11

8 2 perrgdp Decenrate Channelrate Finanrate RDVGIO [ ] [ ] [ ] [ ] [ ] 珚 Zt 珟 Zt [ ] [ ] [ ] [ ] [ ] ΔperPGDP ΔDecenrate ΔChannelrate ΔFinanrate ΔRDVGIO [ ] [ ] [020] [000] [000004] 珚 Zt * * * * * [ ] [ ] [ ] [046] [ ] 珟 Zt * * * : P * 10% 3 Panel Group v-stat rho-stat pp-stat ADF-stat rho-stat pp-stat ADF-stat * * * * * : * 1% ( ) (1) Channelrate GDP,,Channelrate (FMOLS), 4 1, GDP0.01 ( Channelrate GDP ) ,, ( ) 5,Finanrate ( ) 1, GDP1978, 0.2 ( ) 4 ( )FMOLS GDP ( 4 ), Channelrate Finanrate, t,fmols, Decenrate RDVGIO 1978,Decenrate 12 1, GDP0.16 1, GDP

9 4 FMOLS perrgdp Decenrate Channelrate Finanrate RDGIOV perrgdp Decenrate Channelrate Finanrate RDGIOV (-0.43) (-1.16) 0.11 (0.45) 0.01 (1.48) 0.46* (2.57) 0.04 * (4.06) * (-2.87) 0.03 * (6.67) 0.07* (2.83) (0.57) 0.25 * (4.15) (7.77) 0.14 (1.37) (2.49) * (-10.07) 0.01 * (6.70) 0.21* (3.15) (0.68) * (-8.58) * (-2.10) 0.04 (0.71) - (-1.12) (-0.66) (7.96) 0.07 (0.80) - (-0.43) * (-2.47) 0.01 * (2.76) 0.24* (2.67) * (2.79) * (-1.97) 0.03 * (7.56) 0.26* (2.24) (-0.77) * (-2.05) 0.02 (0.88) 0.16 * (4.61) (2.91) (0.41) 0.01 * (7.75) (-1.55) (0.97) (-1.12) (1.14) 0.02 (0.27) 0.01 (0.54) (-1.20) 0.01 (1.55) 0.04* (2.36) (-1.58) * (-4.85) 0.01 * (4.96) 0.03 (1.43) 0.01 (1.27) 0.04 (0.71) - * (-3.66) 0.23* (1.96) 0.03 (1.53) 0.50 (1.29) 0.01 (1.76) 0.08 * (2.51) (0.65) * (-11.79) (1.22) (-0.92) (-0.45) 0.19 (1.12) 0.04 * (5.70) 0.06 * (3.29) (1.16) * (-6.76) * (3.41) 0.54* (9.15) 0.01 * (2.42) * (-3.22) (6.09) 0.05 (0.70) 0.03 * (2.31) (-1.05) 0.01 (1.68) 0.39* (3.99) (0.13) - (-0.02) 0.03 * (3.13) 0.21 * (2.15) 0.02 (1.07) (-0.89) 0.04 * (5.43) 0.14 (-1.40) (2.50) * (-3.59) (1.52) 0.03 (0.26) - (-0.22) 0.43 (1.09) 0.03 * (3.71) 1.09* (3.12) 0.10 * (4.60) (-0.47) 0.06 * (3.16) 0.02 (0.40) (0.69) * (-4.78) (0.77) 0.04 (0.47) (1.55) (-1.49) 0.01 (1.33) (-0.53) (-1.31) (-0.78) (1.91) FMOLS Decenrate Channelrate Finanrate RDGIOV 0.16 * (9.65) 0.01 * (6.03) * (-11.76) (17.34) : 28 (commonfactor) ; t ; * 10% t ;

10 0.02, ( ), Channelrate,Decenrate ( ),Finanrate, (, ), (,Finanrate, Decenrate ( ) 28 ( ), GDP ( Fi-,Decenrate nanrate ),, Decenrate Channelrate Decenrate,, Finanrate Finanrate ( ); ( ); 22 ( ),, Decenrate Channel-, rate, Finanrate ( );, Decenrate Channelrate : 0.54 * 0.39 * 1.09 * ( ), 0.46 * 0.16 * ; Channelrate : 0.01 *, 0.10 * 0.04 * ( ), Finanrate ( : * - ) * Finanrate (Decenrate 0.26 * ) Decenrate, Channelrate, 1,, ( ), 1,,,,, : [22][27][34] 14

11 ( RDGIOV, 0.03 *, ) 28 ( ) (0.06 * ) (0.04 * ) (0.04 * ),,,, 18 ( ),,, 12 ( ),Decenrate Channel- rate, Finanrate 1,Decenrate Finanrate, Channelrate,,, 12, ( ) ( ),,,, ( ), Finanrate, * * * * *,, Finanrate, RDGIOV, ( ) ( ) Finanrate Channelrate 12 ( ) ( ),, ( ),Decenrate, Channelrate Fi- 20 nanrate, Finanrate 90,, * * ( ) Decenrate, Channelrate, Finanrate 0.43, Finanrate GDP, GDP, 15

12 20, 90,,, 30,, :, ( ), Decenrate,,,, ( ),,,,, RDVGIO GDP,,,, ( ),,, (, ),, Channelrate, Finanrate, :,Channelrate Decenrate, ( ), Finanrate ( ), ( ),, 16

13 ,, 28,,,, ;,, [1]C.Tiebout.A PureTheoryofLocalExpenditures [J].JournalofPoliticalEconomy,1956,(64). [2] W.E.Oates.FiscalFederalism [M].New York:HarcourtBraceJovanovic,1972. [3]H.H.Jin,Y.Y.Qian,B.R.Weingast.RegionalDecentralizationandFiscalIncentives:Federalism,ChineseStyle [Z].StanfordUniversity WorkingPaper,2000.SWP [4]T.Zhang,H.P.Zou.FiscalDecentralization,PublicSpendingandEconomicGrowthinChina [J].JournalofPublic Economics,1998,(67). [5]J.Y.Lin,Z.Q.Liu.FiscalDecentralizationandEconomicGrowthinChina [J].EconomicDevelopmentandCultural Change,2000,(49). [6],. [J]. ( ),2005,(1). [7],,. : [J].,2006, (1). [8],AryeL.Hilman,. [J]. () 2002,(1). [9] [J].,2004,(11). [10]. : [J].,2006,(10). [11],. [J].,2005,(1). [12]. [J].,2006,(5). [13],. : [J].,2007,(1). [14],. [J].,2008,(1). [15]R.W.Goldsmith.FinancialStructureandDevelopment [M].YaleUniversityPress,1969. [16]R.G.King,R.Levine.Financeand Growth:Schumpeter MightBe Right [J].QuarterlyJournalof Econom- ics.1993,(aug). [17]R.G.King,R.Levine.Finance,Entrepreneurship,andGrowth:TheoryandEvidence [J].Journalof Monetary 17

14 Economics,1993,(32). [18]P.O.Demetriades,K.A.Hussein.DoesFinancialDevelopmentCauseEconomicGrowth TimeSeriesEvidencefrom 16Countries [J].JournalofDevelopmentEconomics,1996,(51). taryeconomics,2000,(46). [20]F.Rioja,N.Valey.DoesOneSizeFitAl:A ReexaminationoftheFinanceandGrowthRelationship [J].Journalof DevelopmentEconomics,2004,(9). [21],. : [J].,2002,(10). [22],. : VAR [J].,2004,(6). [23],,. [J].,2006,(2). [24],,. Shapley [J].,2007,(5). [25],. : [J].,2007,(5). [26],. [J].,2008,(20). [27],. : [J].,2010,(2). [28]J.Zhang,Y.Jin.IntergovernmentalFiscalReform,FinancialDeepening,and RegionalDisparitiesin China:A MissingLink [J].SocialSciencesinChina,2006,(Spring). [29],,. [J]. ( ),2007, (5). [30],. [J].,2008,(6). [31],. [J].,2009,(1). [32]. [J].,2003,(1). [33]. [J].,2007,(7). [34],. ( ) [J]. ( ), 2002,(2). [35],,. [J].,2011,(12). [36],. [J].,2003,(3). [37],,. [J].,2004,(7). [38],. [J].,2008,(1). [39]P.Pedroni.Fuly Modified OLSfor HeterogeneousCointegratedPanels [Z].Indiana University WorkingPaper, 1999,10 (2). [40]K.S.Im,M.H.Pesaran,Y.Shin.TestingforUnitRootsin HeterogeneousPanels [J].JournalofEconometrics, 2003,(1). [19]R.Levine,N.Loayza,T.Beck.FinancialIntermediationandGrowth:CausalityandCauses [J].JournalofMone- [41]P.Pedroni.PanelCointegration,AsymptoticandFiniteSamplePropertiesofPooledTimeSeriesTestswithanAp- plicationtotheppp Hypothesis [Z].IndiansUniversity WorkingPapersinEconomicsNo95-013,1995. ( : ) 18

15 ANEMPIRICALANALYSISON REGIONALDISPARITIESOFFISCAL DECENTRALIZATION,FINANCIALDEVELOPMENT, INDUSTRIALIZATIONANDECONOMICGROWTHINCHINA MA Ying 1 LIJing 2 CHENBo 3 (1.CenterforEconomicDevelopmentResearch,WuhanUniversity;2.SchoolofEconomics, AnhuiUniversity;3.WuhanBranch,thePeople sbankofchina) Abstract:Inthispaper,weadopttheprovincialpaneldataofChina s28regionssince1978anddevel- opaco-integrationmodeltotestthelong-runrelationshipamongfiscaldecentralization,financialdevelop- ment,industrializationandeconomicgrowth.then,weusethefmols methodtoestimatethemodel. Wealsoembedahypothesisthatthebehaviorsoflocalgovernmentoficialswhojoininthe politicalpro- motiontournament havemadeimpactsoneconomicperformanceintotheanalysisofprocessofdecentrali- zationreform,andtrytoexplainthereasonswhy,sincethereform andopening-up,thecompetitiona- mongthelocalgovernmentoficialshascausedtheregionaldisparitiesinfiscaldecentralization,financial development,industrializationandeconomicgrowthwhileithasproppedupchina shighrateofeconomic growthinaggregateamount.inaddition,wediscussthepolicyimplicationthatiscontainedinourempiri- calfindings. Keywords:fiscaldecentralization;financialdevelopment;industrialization;economicgrowth;region- aldisparities 19

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<C8ABD2B3D5D5C6AC> 书名 : 深化改革, 稳中求进 : 保险与社会保障的视角北大赛瑟 (CCISSR) 论坛文集 2012 著者 : 北京大学中国保险与社会保障研究中心 (CCISSR) 编地址 : 北京大学经济学院新楼 343 室 (100871) 网址 :http://www.ccissr.org 出版时间