* * 2012 L12AGJ002 2013 4 36 1 35 Quarterly Journal of International Politics 1

2013 4 1 2 1 2 2011 261 2006 55 2

1 2 P 100 U lim P 100 50 < P U < 100 = P > 50 2012 4 5 13 960 9200 29. 98 GDP 2011 2247. 54 GDP 7. 8 GDP 2. 88% 3 2012 3 23 1 1 2 3 2008 111 134 2011 http / /www. stats. gov. cn /tjsj /qtsj /gjsj /2011 / 3

2013 4 1 7500 41 183 1 25000 309 81 1 5176 289 18 1 632 159 4 1 63 0 63 0 25 0 25 0 2285000 120000 19 1 800000 130000 6 1 250000 34000 7 1 800000 20000 40 1 / 47575 2379 20 1 972 120 8 1 2600 0 2600 0 1000 20 50 1 GFP The comparisons of global military powers http / /www. globalfirepower. com 1945 2013 4

20 60 1 1975 2 1816 1996 54% 3 1 Raymond Aron Peace and War A Theory of International Relations Garden City NY Doubleday & Company 1966 p. 86. 2 Andrew Mack Why Big Nations Lose Small Wars the Politics of Asymmetric Conflict World Politics Vol. 27 No. 2 1975 p. 175. 3 Michael P. Fischerkeller David versus Goliath Cultural Judgments in Asymmetric Wars Security Studies Vol. 7 No. 4 1998 p. 3. 5

2013 4 1 2 1 2 2012 2 94 2011 1 33 6

1 1 2 3 2 4 30 1 2 3 4 46 7

2013 4 3 1 2 4 1 2 2012 1 117 8

1 = / 2 1 Joseph Nye The New National Interest Foreign Affairs July /August 1999. 2 - Andrew Mack Why Big Nations Lose Small Wars the Politics of Asymmetric Conflict Ivan Arreguin - Toft How the Weak Win Wars A Theory of Asymmetric Conflict New York Cambridge University Press 2005 2012 9

2013 4 1 1 112 113 10

1. 1 1 S > X = S - X - C 2 S X = - C S X C 2 1 2 2011 282 282 11

2013 4 2 0 0 2 > = - 0 < = - 0 = 0 10 9 1 0 1 12

2. = + 1 A B A a A c A d A x B A 1 x - a > 0 A 0 ~ + 2 x - a 0 A c A - c 3 - c < x - a 0 A - c ~ 0 A - c < x - a 13

2013 4 1 A x - a - c - c ~ + 4 - a x - a - c A - a ~ - c A - c 5 x - a - a A - ~ - a A x - a - c A - c A 1 A A A B 14

= + a = c + d 1 - c < x - a - c < x - c - d 0 < x - d d < x A 2 x - a - c x a - c x c + d - c x d A 3 B y x = y A x d y d B A A B A 1 B A 2 B A 15

2013 4 1 1 Jeffrey Record and Beating Goliath Why Insurgents Win and Lose January 2007 http / / www. au. af. mil /au /awc /beating_ goliath. pdf. 16

1945 2012 55 3 1 3 1945 2012 01 1945. 9 1954. 7 02 1947. 3 1948. 12 03 1945. 9 1949. 2 04 1948. 6 1957. 8 05 1952. 1 1956. 3 06 1952. 10 1963. 12 07 1953. 2 1953. 2 08 1954. 8 1956. 3 09 1954. 11 1962. 3 1 2011 2 11 17

2013 4 10 1955. 4 1960. 8 11 1950. 6 1953. 7 12 1947. 11 1949. 3 13 1953. 10 1961. 6 14 1955. 12 1960 15 1956. 7 1960 16 1956. 10 1956. 11 17 1958. 7 1958. 10 18 1958. 7 1958. 11 19 1960. 7 1964. 11 20 1956. 10 1956. 11 21 1961. 5 1975. 4 22 1961. 11 1967. 6 23 1967. 6 1967. 6 24 1968. 8 1989 25 1963. 10 1967. 11 26 1965. 4 1966. 9 27 1971. 2 1975. 5 28 1969. 4 1979. 12 29 1970. 4 1970. 7 30 1970. 4 1975. 4 31 1973. 4 1973. 4 32 1973. 10 1973. 11 33 1974. 1 1974. 1 34 1974. 7 1974. 8 18

35 1975. 8 1976. 1 36 1975. 11 1983. 6 37 1979. 2 1979. 3 38 1979. 1 1989. 9 39 1979. 12 1989. 2 40 1982. 4 1982. 6 41 1982. 6 1982. 9 42 1983. 10 1983. 12 43 1986. 3 1986. 4 44 1989. 12 1990. 5 45 1990. 8 1991. 2 46 1991. 1 1991. 2 47 1993. 4 1993. 11 48 1999. 3 1999. 6 49 2001. 10 50 2003. 3 2010. 8 51 2006. 7 2006. 6 52 2008. 8 2008. 9 53 2008. 12 54 2011. 2 2011. 10 55 2012. 4 J. David Singer Melvin Small Correlates of War 1945 1999 Toft 1816 2003 Melvin Small and J. David Singer Resort to Arms International and Civil Wars 1816-1980 Beverley Hills Sage Publications 1983 1999 390 401 Ivan Arreguin - Toft How the Weak Win Wars A Theory of Asymmetric Conflict pp. 228-232 170 1993 55 56 19

2013 4 3 16 100% 39 10 25. 64% SPSS Statistical Product and Service Solutions 1945 2012 55 SPSS 4 Beta Sig. * Constant 0. 000-0. 664 0. 000-0. 205 0. 049 * Sig. 0. 05 Sig. 0. 01 Sig. 0. 05 4-0. 664 0. 000-0. 205 0. 049 20

5 1 2 3 4 5 1 1 21

2013 4 = - / 5 1 2 3 4 5 1 1 5 22

6 1 2 3 4 5 6 0 1 5 4 3 2 1 5 4 3 2 1 0 P = x y + a P = xy + a x y 0 a 0 P A B 23

2013 4 C D E 2 P Pmax = 5 5 + 5 = 30 2 P 0 30 P /Pmax > 50% 24

1 2013 1690 1816 1833 20 80 2 1 2006 27 2 2006 646 25

2013 4 5 1 5 1981 2 3 P = 5 5 + 3 = 28 P /Pmax = 93. 3% > 50% 1 2 2007 4 9 26

1 1 2 0 P' = 5 1 + 0 = 5 P' /Pmax = 16. 7% < 50% 1956 1869 1 2 647 2001 1 17 18 27

2013 4 800 12 1956 7 26 1956 5% 7% 1 1956 6 18 74 2 5 1956 1948. 6 1957. 8 1952. 10 1963. 12 1955. 4 1960. 8 1955. 12 1960 1954. 11 1962. 3 1956. 7 1960 6 18 1956 7 22 1 2 3 1 2 1956 1997 6 31 254 28

1 3 1956 5 16 1956 7 26 2 2 P = 5 3 + 2 = 17 P /Pmax 57% > 50% 5 1 3 /5 3 1 2 http / /book. sina. com. cn /longbook /his /1108610420_ shijizhanzheng /55. shtml 2005 3 1986 3 86 2003 429 29

2013 4 2 997 1 5 P' = 5 2 + 5 = 15 P' /Pmax = 50% 1650 5000 6200 255 215 226 1030 4 20 2 1 2 2011 22 80 83 2 http / /zh. wikipedia. org /wiki /% E7% AC% AC% E4% BA% 8C% E6% AC% A1% E4% B8% AD% E4% B8% 9C% E6% 88% 98% E4% BA% 89 30

2013 2013 2013 2 12 3 11 3 30 4 2 4 4 4 5 4 8 4 14 31

2013 4 3 31 1 5 2006 2 4 9 TBS 3 3 1 http / /military. people. com. cn /n / 2013 /0401 / c101120988639. html 2 http / /paper. people. com. cn /jhsb /html /2006-10 /13 / content_ 11475907. htm 3 http / /news. china. com / focus / cxhsy /11136138 /20130409 /17767690. html 32

2021 5 P = 5 3 + 5 = 20 P /Pmax 66. 7% > 50% 4 4 4 24 1 2 1 http / /news. xinhuanet. com / cankao /2013-04 /19 /c_ 132321565. htm 2 http / /news. xinhuanet. com / world /2013-02 /19 /c_ 124360114. htm 33

2013 4 4 2 5 P' = 5 2 + 4 = 14 P' /Pmax 46. 7% < 50% 4 34

16 16 35

xxg1972@ 126. com 2011 yuep05@ 126. com Yuen Foong Khong yuenfoong. khong@ nuffield. ox. ac. uk zhongquan100@ 126. com 2011 dearjxc@ 163. com 2012 chiyong1212@ gmail. com