翁啟惠演講 談基礎研究與創新發展 P.04 / 臺灣觀光工廠風潮興盛 P.32 12 VOL.278/ 2014 展望2015年 創新將成為產業翻轉的力量 看好臺灣在機械 通訊 半導體 綠能 生醫產業的發展 及早因應變化 提早布局 必定能帶動更多的市場契機 掌握臺灣產業的領先優勢
12 目錄 Contents 03 04 08 16 20 工業技術與資訊 第 278 期 12 月號 出刊日期 2014.12.01 發行人 徐爵民 總編輯 林佳蓉 副總編輯 許淑珮 主編 張彥文 讀者服務 張珈瑋 電話 886-3-591-7703 傳真 886-3-582-0494 信箱 enews@itri.org.tw 編輯製作 商周編輯顧問股份有限公司 電話 02-2505-6789 分機 5508 24 32 36 工研院技術服務詢問窗口 電話 0800-458899 傳真 886-3-5834268 網址 http://www.itri.org.tw/chi/ 本刊獨家取得美國麻省理工學院 Technology Review 期刊 授權刊載圖文 An article in this issue reproduces from Technology Review Copyright 2014,All rights reser ved Technology Review, Published by MIT www.technologyreview.com 40 42 編者的話 Editor's Note 謀定才能後動 專欄 Column 探索未知世界 創造經濟價值 微軟的量子力學 湯姆 西門奈 Tom Simonite 譯 梁豫婷 創新之鑰 Innovation 電動車多元典範運行 共探車輛產業未來 陳玉鳳 積極探究研究基礎 推動創新獲肯定 唐祖湘 封面故事 Features 改變帶來新市場 尋找產業翻轉的力量 柯盛哲 產業焦點 Focus 臺灣觀光工廠風潮興盛 劉麗惠 深化產業價值 觀光工廠向前行 許慈倩 科技快訊 News 工研院將世界級技術應用於產業界 胡湘湘 電子旅遊套票 低碳遊憩新風潮 張煥鵬 行政院新聞局出版事業登記證局版台省誌 153 號 歡迎線上閱讀並下載本刊 網址 http://www.itri.org.tw/itmonthly 免費訂閱 請註明公司 單位 地址 收件人 電話 傳真或 E-mail 至編輯室 新竹縣竹東鎮 310 中興路 4 段 195 號 著作權所有 本刊圖文非經同意不得轉載 翁啟惠 觀念探索 Trend 中華郵政中台字第 0859 號執照登記為雜誌交寄 發行所 工業技術研究院 地址 張彥文
Editor's Note 2014 2015 2014 2014 2015 IEK IoT.com 2015 IEK 4G 3D 2020 3 IEK 2014 9,600 4G 2015 IEK 2015 Industrial Technology 3
Column 1950 DNA Polymerase chain reaction; PCR 4
1980 Human Genome Project; HGP 30 biomarker 2014 Eric BetzigStefan W. Hell William E. Moerner super-resolved fluorescence microscopy 0.2 1 10 1 9 Scripps Prof. George M. Whitesides 1983 Texas A&M 1986 1987 1989 Scripps 2003 2006 9 2011 10 40 700 2014 Wolf Prize in Chemistry Industrial Technology 5
Column 40 32 31 business model 6
1980 FDA 2007 3,000 20 10 3 Industrial Technology 7
Trend (Tom Simonite) Technology Review Technology Review, Published by MIT. TECHNOLOGY REVIEW internet URL: www. technologyreview.com 2012 Majorana fermion 1937 Craig Mundie 10 1982 Richard Feynman quantum bit qubit IBM 2012 topological qubit 8
(Michael Freedman) Station Q Joseph Escamilla Industrial Technology 9
Trend Peter Lee (Michael Freedman) 63 Station Q 16 30 IBM D-Wave Systems 512 Google 2009 D-Wave D-Wave Google D-Wave Poincaré conjecture 95 (Fields Medal) 1988 1997 Alexei Kitaev 10
2004 60 0 1 superposition 0 1 entangle Raymond Laflamme decoherence 7 2009 Google D-Wave Systmes 2013 512 D-Wave Google (Chris Monroe) Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity; IARPA Station Q electron liquid Industrial Technology 11
Trend Leo Kouwenhoven 110 non-abelian anyons Station Q 1937 Ettore Majorana 0 1 Niels Bohr Institute Charlie Marcus 2012 2012 John Preskill Bob Willett Alexander Graham Bell 1947 12
Industrial Technology 13
Trend 2009 2013 1-272.15 0 1 AT& T 14
3 Windows Microsoft Office 1978 Krysta Svore - Technology Review Copyright 2014,Tom Simonite.All Rights Reserved. Industrial Technology 15
Innovation 10 TAIFE) Taiwan Automotive International Forum and Exhibition Ecosystem for xev- the Blueprint for the Future TAIFE TAIFE IDTechEx Automotive Technology Automotive News China 16
10 5 BMW Tesla Renesas NVIDIANidec Taiwan Automotive Research Consortium; TARC 635 2013 7.5 2009 4 2005 5 TAIFE IDTechEx Peter Harrop IDTechEx 1999 37 2025 5,330 BMW i3 Tesla Model S BAIC Motor Corp. 15,000 GM 200 3 Zero Motorcycles Brammo Yamaha 2 Tesla Industrial Technology 17
Innovation kwh 100 1,000 IDTechEx 2024 65 EV Automotive Technology Tatsuhiko Hayashi 3D IT 2 4 1 60 1 40 70 2015 SUBARU EyeSight 50 10 Nissan Skyline 2 Daihatsu IT IDTechEx Dr. Peter Harrop 18
1,800 50 10 60 LMC 82% 90% 2013 14,600 3,000 2014 8 Automotive Technology IT Automotive News China 490 10% 35 25,946 3 VW Proton ABB TASS International Nomura Research Institute CALSTART Carnegie Mellon University TOPIA Infineon Tokyo R&D Efficient Drivetrains Industrial Technology 19
Innovation 21 21 7 110 1998 1 IC 2002 12,000 1,500 8 2010 2011 10 2012 1 (1) 50 100 ; (2) 3 20
7 ; (3) OLED OLED Industrial Technology 21
FEATURES 封面故事 22
2015 Industrial Technology 23
FEATURES IEK 2015 2014 2015 4G 2015 2014 FTA IEK 2015 4G IoT 2015 2015 24
4G 2015 IEK 2014 9,641 2013 7% 12.54% 10.83% 4.92% MarketsandMarkets 2020 3 IEK MarketsandMarkets 2013 1,712 2014 1,847 8% 2020 3,019 2013 2020 CAGR 8.53% MarketsandMarkets 2014 250 2020 Industrial Technology 25
FEATURES 391 CAGR 7.75% 2013 90.3 40% 2020 164 2014 2020 CAGR 8.5% IFR 2013 178,132 2008 2013 CAGR 12% 3 6 10% 2013 2014 FTA QE 2014 4G 2014 2014 1 105 2013 17.4% 2015 2015 Android 2014 13 2013 28.9% 200 2016 54% 2015 1 692 IEK 2015 2014 400 2015 440 2015 53.4GW 2014 10% 2015 FIT 2015 26
2014 500GW 4 500GW 2014 2014 2 3 2014 0.8% 1.92 2015 1.98 3.2% 40% 2013 1,975 2015 2,388 Google auto driving Apple carplay Tesla connected vehicle Tesla VW Toyota Nissan Industrial Technology 27
FEATURES 10 2013 19 2011 1 143% 3 4 5 20% 28
IoT 4C ICT IEK ICT PC Mobile IoT Google Eric Schmidt ICT Web First Mobile First Mobile Only Data Economy Industrial Technology 29
FEATURES 2013 130 2018 415 2013 2018 CAGR 26.2% 3.2 4.5 2025 2.7 6.2 100 IT 5 IT 3 5 2020 330 2014 IC 2014 21,983 2013 16.4% 2015 IC 23,330 2014 6.1% 2015 IC IC IC 3D 3D 3D Inside 3D printing Wohlers 3D 2013 3D 30
30.7 2012 34.9% 2014 40 4 3 3D 75% 2020 210 2014 3 2011 2015 2020 ICT Industrial Technology 31
Focus 10 10 2003 32
20 2003 2014 8 160 117 2013 117 1,350 28 100 40 28 19 17 5 5 19 16 12 3 1980 2005 30 Industrial Technology 33
Focus 5 DC 5 RoboteX 2014 BoBo Ship BoBo Ship BoBo Ship Auto Guided Vehicle; AGV BoBo Ship 300 6 1886 34
DIY DIY DIY 1970 2011 2012 9 9 19 200 9 DIY DIY DIY DIY DIY DIY 1985 3 2011 2014 NBA 2014 600 9,000 Industrial Technology 35
Focus 2014 2003 2009 2013 2014 8 2014 5 8 10 36
2014 8 4 6 3 20 5,000 Industrial Technology 37
Focus DIY 1998 WTO 1 2002 2005 2008 38
20 2007 2010 2 3 6 DIY QR code DIY Industrial Technology 39
News 52 R&D 100 Awards R&D 100 Awards R&D Tim Studt 20 R&D 100 Awards Tim Studt R&D Lindsay Hock 7 90% 40
LED LED LED LED CPU 0.3 LED LED LED LED 2.5 6 LED 11 2000 LED LED 90 3,000Wt 2012 1.9MWt 30 50 ( 50 80 ) 2 3000 1 2 Bloomberg Gartner Frost and Sullivan Navigant Industrial Technology 41
News 5 360 990 680 1,540 4 6 42
800 1.5 App APP 7 6 7 1 1.5 87% 3 3 Near Field Communication; NFC Over-the-Air Technology; OTA 35-8 04-22256418 04-36018665 163 049-2856879 338 049-2996147 18-1 049-2983589 Industrial Technology 43