大陸情勢 2003‧7

大陸情勢 200510 總評 : 本期整體情勢 : 5 9 23 1.53 對外關係方面 : 60 3 對臺工作方面 : 1

政治 : 10 8-11 5 2010 2000 1 20 10 19 32,000 12 0.4520 4.7 20 50 2005.9.19 1992 1:2.452004 14.39 2005.10.9 2003 5 2005.8.25 2.5 2,610 900 1 10 2,200 76 46 1 700 1993 7,000 2003 1.4 10 30 2

80 4,090-6,830 GDP 3-5 7 20,455 244 2005.8 經濟 : 106,275 2005 1-9 9.4 57,061 26.1 CPI 2.0 1-9 10,245.1 23.7 5,464.2 31.3 4,780.9 16 683.3 1,303.25 21.81 432.47 2.11 9 M2 28.7 17.9 M1 10.1 11.6 M0 2.2 8.5 7,690 49.5 28 19.1 4-9 1.7 1.6 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.9 30-40 8 5-6 6-8 10 11 1,838.7 1-9 4.5 27.9 20.1 3 39.8 1-9 3

9 1 3.1 6 1.8 3 1.3 432 5 4 500 2004-2005 M 2 2004 9.5 25.8 3.9 11.5 14.6 4.2 35.4 36.0 13.32 2005 1 - - 1.9 20.9 14.1-42.2 24.0 10.72 1-2 - 24.5 2.9 16.9 13.9-36.6 8.3 8.21 1-3 9.5 22.8 2.8 16.2 14.0 4.2 34.9 12.2 9.48 1-4 - 25.7 2.6 16.2 14.1-34.0 13.3 2.24 1-5 - 26.4 2.4 16.3 14.6-33.2 13.7-0.79 1-6 9.5 25.4 2.3 16.4 15.7 4.2 32.7 14.0-3.18 1-7 27.2 2.2 16.3 16.3 32.0 13.8-3.42 1-8 27.4 2.1 16.3 17.3 32.0 14.9-3.02 1-9 9.4 26.1 2.0 16.3 17.9 4.2 31.3 16.0-2.11 社會 : 8 25 1 3 10 8 28 12 1 1/5 1/3 3 4

1:0.43:0.15 88 7 2005.8.8 7 10 20 485 10 16 7 2 36 7 11 83 8 7 123 90 2004 2/3 23,388 3 1/3 2005.8.25 8 9 3 8,648 1.7 3 1 11.2 5.67 51 45 25 3 20-40 2005.9.22 4 50 3.3 312 3 63 12 50 2 5 7 21 4,264.12 2000 8 2005.8242005.9.2 253 3 5

6,000 36,000 22 5 2,300 2005.8.11 52 61 40 9 1 50 10 1 22 10 63 640 56 54 39 42 8 29-30 9 6 5 16 文化 : 2004 2,000 19 1 1 GDP 7,517 6,000 2005.10.3 79.82 2004 9,422 1 13.6 2004 23.8 GDP20 1 4.2 2,936 2005.8.16 9 19 6 8 18 10 2 2005.8.5 6

1 2 2004 7 25 2003 12 30 18 6 30 12 7 25 1 1 TK-1 9 23 20-60 83 98 15.2 7.8 3,980 18 10,000 60 8 25 2005.8.25 73.5 47 78.6 57.2 2005.8.9 8 2003 2004 4 2008 2 9 1 7

40 1 2005.8.25 7 20 9 1 9 25 7 23-25 2005.8.24 2005.9.20 17 2005.9.20 9 3 2005 20 278 12 8

軍事 : 9 1 1995 11 2003 12 2 8 30 9 20-27 3 1 6 2 F 10 12 10 17 3 2 9 6 2010 12 2005.9.7 9,000 UGT6000 ZUBR 9

2005.8.26 2005.8.22 2005.9.28 2 636 73.8 9.9 20 300 SU-30 8 2005.7.255 9 2005.9.26 31 3 5 6 9 2 28 JH7A 2 2005.7.27 100 SU-27SSU-30MKK 27N 329 SU-30MKK 2005.8 8 8 12,500 2005.8.8 7 54 100 AL31FN J 10A 10 J10A F16A/B 10,886 2005.8.14 8 18-25 3-2005 1 3 3 10

055-27 IL-76 IL-78 A-50 SU-30 SU-27SM SU-24M2 TU-95MS TU-22M3 TU-160 AS-15 2005.9.279 27 16,000 9 21-23 -2005 24 40 4 2005.9.26 2005.9.279 25 1 2 1 10 16-19 9 5-9 12 30 IL-76 6-10 IL-78 20 9 13-20 9 1 9 21-22 9 9 9 5 9 5-11 10 18-20 9 13-16 8 31-9 1 975 57 9 1-4 11

外交 : 7 19 2005 8 2 8 24 1 11 2005.8.24 8 1-2 8 1 7 8 2 4 8 30 9 3 9 13 9 5 8 1985 3 2004 9 21 10 17 10 23-24 9 30-10 1 3 8 2 1 2 1 9 9 8 2 2005 4 2004 9 1 7 26-8 7 9 13-19 2 6 11 5 12

9 8-1117 9 13-16 9 11-12 60 11 10 28-30 9 4-6 9 7-11 7-9 2 10 26-27 4 9 19-25 10 8-11 8 2 8 3-6 9 15-28 7 26-31 7 26-8 1 8 16-24 12 9 8-17 9 18-25 60 港澳 : 9 10-12 60 9 25-26 10 12 10 12 67.4 72.3 6 8 5 4 13

3 10 19 5 800 70 1 1,600 60 1 6.1 2 6.8 1 0.6 1-8 11.3 9.3 581 6-8 5.7 9 2-6 9 11 9 25 3 29 12 10 7 28 220,654 5 18 125 128,829 58.39 2 7 29 9 15 10.8 2 8.2 1 0.4 1-8 112.8 24.1 192.4 7.4 79.6 6-8 4.1 5-7 0.1 1-8 12,321.130 13.3 55.5 對臺政策 : 9 3 60 4 14

9 14 4 8 1 2005.8.2 8 9 14-16 8 17 60 7 25 2 18 1 15 8 300 5 8 15 21 (ANMC21) 15

9 20-10 1 10 25 16

5 90 5 2005 10 8 11 191 150 17

4 5 3,700 2005.10.11 1 5 10 2005.10.18 1. 2. 6 2010 GDP2000 20 9 7 3. 7 4. 18

5. 6. 4 20 5 5 2005.9.30 20 19

2005.10.10 5 1949 1952 1963 1965 1953 5 10 5 WTO 2005.9.20 8 14 20

5 2005.8.17 8 2005.8.15 2005.1.31 1 2005 2005.1.31 2005.10.24 2005 5 BBS 2005 8 21

6 10 2 54 2005 7 7 4 7 29 7 25 20 2 7 27 75 65 8 2 3,750 2005 8 17 2005.9.25 22

2005 7 6 30 2005.6.237 5 2005 8 20059 25 6 33 11 2005.9.25 10 26 2005.9.28 Christian Science Monitor2005.9.22 2002 International Herald Tribune2005.7.9 10 2005 7 2005.7.1 23

2005.9.25 4 2 20 5 2005 9 8 1 8 8 8 10 8 12 24

1998 2 2000 2005 9 8 13 30 2005.8.16 2005.8.17 2005.8.3 2005.8.1 2005.8.17 8 11 20 90 3 11 The Wall Street Journal2005.9.6 90 20059.10 2005 8 25

The Asian Wall Street Journal2005.9.28 2005 9 The Asian Wall Street Journal2005.9.28 8 2005.9.11 5 5 The Asian Wall Street Journal2005.8.25 8 2004 1 6 2005.3 5 80 2005.9.21 26

5 9 2005.10.4 8 19 The Reuter's news agency 2005.10.6 29 47 2007 2005.8.17 27

2002 2004 3 3 53 1994 70 2003 13 5 9 2005.6.287.23 2005.7.27 8 7 2005.8.278.28 2005.8.28 2005 9 9 2005.9.25 20 9 9 28

2005.9.10 4 25 31 2005.4.28 7 7 13 7 7 2005.7.7 7 18 10 29

21 10 2005.7.18 2005.4.28 7 27 2004 3 22 10 2004.04.20 2005.7.27 2006 4 30 2005.7.27 30

3 2005.9.20 50 2005.8.7 296 68 83.8 62.8 6.5 2005.8.2 2005.9.20 7 5 2005.8.22 2005.8.2 5 7 28 31

2005.9.13 7 12 2005 3 20 2005 9 10 19 2005.10.19 3 32

2005.10.19 2005.10.21 2005.10.20 Foreign Affairs2005.8.25 USA Today2005.8.11 Far Eastern Economic Review2005.7.27 10 20 159 9 2005.10.21 2003 6 9 5 2005 7 2005.8.22 33

2005 9.5 2004 9.7 0.2 2005 1-8 CPI 2.1 CPI 3 2.7 8 1.3 2005 1-8 27.4 30.3 2005 9 23 3 2005 9.5 2 2005 GDP 6 7,422 9.5 2004 GDP 9.7 0.2 6,707 5.0 3 9,635 11.2 2 1,080 7.8 1978 34

2003 GDP 9.4 2004 GDP 9.5 2005 2005 1 2005 9 IMF GDP 2005 4 8.5 9 2006 8 8.2 IMF GDP 40 2 GDP GDP 9.2 8.7 3 8 1.3 8 2.1 2005 1-8 CPI 2.1 35

3.7 1.3 17. 3.6 8 CPI 1.3 CPI 1.2 CPI 1.5 7 0.2 CPI 3 CPI 2.7 8 CPI 1.3 0.9 3.0 5.2 CPI 1 2 2005 2006 CPI 2.0 2.1 CPI 2 2004 1-3 2004 4-6 2004 7-9 2004 10-12 2005 1-3 2005 4-6 2005 1-8 2.8 4.4 4.8 3.6 2.8 2.3 2.1 1-8 2005 1-8 3 3,585.4 13.0 0.1 14.0 11.6 36

10.6 12.8 17.6 0.1 1 1-8 16.0 1-8 16.3 11.2 14.2 3 16.9 14.9 15.7 0.8 1 1-8 27.4 1-8 27.4 30.3 12.3 29.5 47.3 17.1 10.2 1 35000 1 60 30000 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 50 40 30 20 10 0 2003 2004 2005 37

1-8 23.5 2005 1-8 8,917.3 23.5 4,762.5 32.2 4,154.7 15.0 607.8 8 1,262.1 28.6 684 33.2 578.1 23.5 105.9 45 9 8 930 320 3 1500 2 1000 500 0 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 2004 2005 1,250 GDP 6.5 WTO 1 38

6 1-8 3.02 9.84 1-8 FDI 20.69 3.02 9.84 2005 8 537,334 12,093.15 6,000.93 4 2004 1-3 2004 4-6 2004 7-9 2004 10-12 2005 1-3 2005 4-6 2005 7-8 342.1 384.9 347.2 460.6 352.2 509.71 265.15 140.7 198.1 148.1 119.4 133.9 151.73 94.3 3 2005 7 21 19 1 8.11 0.3 1.5 2 10 10 39

1 8.0864 2.3 2005 9 23 1.5 3 0.3% 8 7 8 7 1,013.64 6 3 8 1,011.50 7 11 7 8 31 1,162.80 278.98 1 1,740.73 8 4,641.27 40

AB 2004 2 1,293 48,441.32 15,320.81 63.41 7,129.17 2004 3 1,302 50,417.42 15,855.94 55.58 5,697.19 2004 4 1,314 45,804.96 14,367.68 98.31 5,215.63 2004 5 1,324 44,742.63 14,119.75 215.67 1,801.25 2004 6 1,346 40,408.09 12,604.36 345.54 2,604.09 2004 7 1,367 40,377.19 12,717.65 219.86 2,536.77 2004 8 1,380 39,031.39 12,223.73 99.03 1,864.52 2004 9 1,378 40,928.61 12,906.97 13.93 3,936.40 2004 10 1,378 38,741.88 12,231.59 33.48 2,873.37 2004 11 1,377 39,458.96 12,532.42 89.09 3,016.78 2004 12 1,377 37,055.57 11,688.64 237.61 2,069.62 2005 1 1,377 34,877.62 11,067.77 47.38 1,740.73 2005 2 1,378 38,443.12 12,161.18 8.78 1,984.27 2005 3 1,379 34,802.72 10,996.52 7.05 2,977.30 2005 4 1,383 33,871.01 10,658.99 328.16 2,964.56 2005 5 1,388 31,330.34 9,989.17 11.12 1,457.74 2005 6 1,391 31,590.02 1,004.21 504.93 3,086.10 2005 7 1,390 31,397.34 9,814.85 31.26 2,176.59 2005 8 1,389 33445.61 10,633.67 225.76 4,641.27 41

4 8 7 8 101.86 7 3.10 1-8 8,920 22.3 1.08 10.5 104.35 7 0.14 1.96 1 70 8 10 6 2 2 40 42

10 11 2010 GDP 2000 21,600 20 ; ; 5 11 GDP 1-6 67,422 9.5 1-6 39,635 11.2 CPI=100 8 8 1-8 1-8 5,040.8 39,585.4 1.3 2.1 12.5 13.0 1-8 41,150.90 27.4 1-8 FDI1-8 6 9 30 8,911.1 4,756.7 4,154.5 602.2 28,393 379.93 1,127.06 7,109.73 8.0920 23.5 32.0 14.9 -- -1.03-3.02 20.69 43

1.(www.stats.gov.tw) 2.(www.imf.org) 3.(www.pbc.gov.cn) 4.(www.mofcom.gov.cn) 5.2005.5 6.(www.e-economic.com) 7.(www.csrc.gov.cn) 8 (www.sse.com.cn) 9.(www.szse.cn) 10.(www.mof.gov.cn) 11.(www.xinhua.org) 44

3 6 20 4.7 20 50 668 2,610 924 4,977 2,200 3 1 3 1 3 1 2004 7 4,000 203 2001-2004 10 188 7.4 1 2004 33.2 80 70 2,500 2005 1 9 20 1,630 2000 5 20 4,090-6,830 2 119.86100 2,300 60 1 3,000 21 6 21 45

6 2005.9.6 () 3 30-40 1,000 () 2004 4.3 30 27 25 40 () () 1,200-1,300 () () 3 3 2005.7.18 1950 5 20 6 6 5.4 13 2005.9.4 46

5 2003 5 20 4.7 20 50 0.45 2005.9.19 668 2672 2,610 924 3,696 4,977 2,200 2005.7.5 1 9,787 9 8 8 3 3 1 3 1 3 1 2005.7.31 2004 7 4,000 203 3 47

1 6 92 341 17 5,000 46 1,740 340-400 1,360-1,600 2005.8.29 8 4 8 6 3 3 2005.8.8A11 8 31 2005.9.1 7 2 1 2 2005.7.4 7 2005.7.21 7 45 2005.7.8 8 26 1 2005.8.28 7 2001-2004 10 48

188 7.4 2004 16 6 33.2 6,027 80 3.96 0.039 100 2005.8.13 2005 2,672 85 10 24 2 14 214 3 2005.7.19 7 7 19 26 2005.7.20 8 2 24 2005.8.3 8 8 14 2 2005.8.8 8 7 420 123 15 2005.8.15 26 7,000 5,290 2,000 2005.8.16 2,500 7 3 3 1 10 1 30 70 2,500 1 2005.8.26 49

2005 22 9,000 4 6,000 9 6,000 1,513 2005.8.11 2005 10 59 1,319 164 2005.7.16 5 20 2000 5 20 2004 500 700 2005.9.7 2000 2005 6 3 4,685 3 8,554 480 2005.7.27 2004 12 9 6 2005.9.30 2005.8.19 8 12 50

2 752 143 1,451 2005.8.12 102 211 17 3 2005.8.20 603 7 28 2 188 7 28 15 15 2005.7.28 450 7 4 2005.7.5 OECD 3-5 4,090-6,830 2005.10.2 3 1,600 2005 1 9 20 51

1,630 1,630 145 1,335 2005 1990 2005.9.22 180 180 30 1-2 1 1 30-40 1 1 600 1 2005.8.7 87 6,300 300 1980 5,800 19.3 21.51 2005.8.23 2 2 0 110 0 92.3 2005.7.14 52

5 4 198919951998 3 2005.8.3 119.86100 103~107100 3 2005.8.24 2,300 2,300 2005.7.20 1 3,000 3 60 1 3,000 10 2015 60 2 14 2025 60 2 8,000 18.4 2005.9.24 1 4,000 1993 7,000 2003 1 4,000 53

10 30 15 15-35 80 2005.7.27 5 18 2005 2010 5 ( 2005.5.18) 8 29 30 2005 2010 5 ( 2005.8.30) 9 31 54

7 ( 2005.8.21) 2006 41 33 25 30 2006 200 5,000 25 1 30 50 5 1 1 55

2005.9.31 34 52 100 600 ( 2005.9.9) 4 47 2005.9.10 821 2 (2005.8.21) 1 592 258 43.4 2005.10.5 56

2005 6 29 ( ) ( ) ( ) 1. 57

5 2. 3. 3 4. 2 2006 2 1/3 1-2 ( ) 2005 5 2 2-3 1. 58

( 2005.8.2) 2. ( ) ( 2005.7.16) 3. ( 2005.8.2) 2005 59

PK ( 2005.8.30) 15 2,000 4 5 ( 2005.8.29) ( 2005.8.27) American Idol ( 2005.8.30) fans 3 3 60

( 2005.8.28) ( 2005.9.24 ) ( 2005.8.28) ( 2005.8.24) ( 2005.10.6 ) ( 2005.10.07) 61

( 2005.8.29) ( 2005.9.24 ) ( 2005.10.17) ( 2005.9.24) 9 26 1 ( 2005.9.27) 62

( 2005.10.13) ( 2005.8.27) 4-5 2005 ( 2005.8.29) 2 SOHO ( 2005.9.24) 2004 52% 7,000 2015 7.3% 14.2% 2005.10.08 8 8 63

2005.08.08 1. 2. 3. 4. 51% 5. 51% 6. 7. 64

8. 2005.08.09 65

28 JH-7A 22 Il-76 Il-78 2 99 66

(http://www.wenweipo.com/news.phtml?cat=001yo&news_id= YO0508050008 &PHPSESSID=5fdelf32c85) 31 (http://www.wenweipo.com/news.phtml?news_id=ch0507200012&cat=002ch) (http://tw.yahoo.com/050726/43/23 wib.html) (http://www.wenweipo.com/news.phtml?cat=001yo&news_id= YO0507190012&P HPSESSID=5ffb0ecae2a) ( 2005.8p.28) 3 2 3 (Ibidp.29) (http://news.xinhuanet.com/mil/2005-07/12/content_3206991.htm) (http://news.xinhuanet.com/mil/2005-7/13/content_3213137.htm) 9 1 67

80 2 (http://news.xunhuanet.com/mil/2005-09/01/content_3429141_2.htm) 28 JH-7A WS9 JL-10A YJ-91/Kh-31 (Jane s Defense Weekly2005.8.3p.6) 22 (http://news.xinhuanet.com/newscenter/2005-09/16/content_3498795.htm) 2 L-15 3,100 1 Su-27 (http://www.wenweipo.com/ news.phtml?news_id=c H0509250 021&cat=002CH) 30 Il-76 8 Il-78 20 Il-76 15 Il-76 16 (JDW2005.9.21p.16) 526 9 26 (http://tw.news.yahoo.com/050927/432ci8q.html) (http://tw.news.yahoo.com/050928/43/2co2u.html) 99 140mm 98 125mm BMP-3IFV 100mm BMD -73 /30mm (JDW 2005.6.22p.40 p.59-61) 2.4 50 8 68

F-16 2005.9.233 2005 8 18 8 25 7,000 1,800 1 2 3 (http://www.wenweipo.com/news. phtml?news_id=ch0508260015&cat=002ch) 3 1 2 3 (http://www.wenweipo.com/news.phtml?news_id=ch0508250012&cat=002ch) 2005 9 27 16,000 (http://news.xinhuanet.com/mil/2005-09/27/content_3551570.htm) 24 (http://news.xinhuanet.com/mil/2005-09/27/content_3551555.htm) 69

Unocal 10 18 20 2001 11 70

Unocal 10 18 20 2001 11 () 8 1 2 (senior talk) ( 2005.7.216 ) 2004 ( 2005.8.26 ) ( 2005.7.31) ( 2005.8.3A3 ) () 9 7 10 8 30 78712 ( ) 9 13 71

60 ( 2005.9.4A13 ) 1 30 ( 2005.9.15A10 ) ( 2005.9.157 ) (join the Chinese side) ( 2005.9.15A1 ) 4 2004 6 3 1 4 7 26 2 9 13 6 ()1 3 13 (2005.8.9) 2004 72

7 30 8 7 ( 2005.8.8A14 ) ()2 1 9 13 6 9 19 5 ( 2005.9.20A11 ) 6 11 ( 2005.9.203 ) ( 2005.9.203 ) 9 20 () 6 ( 2005.9.20A1 ) 2004 9 ( 2005.9.228 ) 3 ( 2005.8.29) 73

8 18 25 2005 55 1 1 ( 2005.8.19A13 ) 8 18 19 8 20 22 8 23 25 () 2001 (2005.7.4)2004 7 (Asia Wall Street Journal 2005.8.22A7) ( 2005.3.18) () ( 8 2005.7.4) 2 3 3 ( 2005.8.3A13 ) 74

() 90 ( 2005.6.3A6 ) ( 2005.6.10) ( 2005.8.14) ( 2005.8.22A14 ) () 20 (2005. ) 1 TU-95 TU-22M TU-160 ( 2005.1.15) IL-76 IL-78 15 ( 2005.9.8) 75

() 8 7 13 2005 EP-3 24 ( 2005.8.18A13 ) 2006 1 ( 2005.8.19A13 ) ( 2005.8.19) () 8 23 ( 2005.8.196 ) ( 2005.8.17) 7 ( 2005.8.21) 9 5 17 76

() 2004 5 100 11 2005 1 5 Paul Martin Paul Martin (2005.9.9) ( 2005.9.15 ) () 5 )( 2005.9.11) (BBC2005.9.12) ( 2005.9.14) () Paul Martin Paul Martin Jim Abbott 77

( 2005.9.9A2 ) 8 9 5 2003 () 1 9 5 ( 2005.9.6A5 ) 25 ( 2005.9.7) ( 2005.9.9) () 6 2005 ( 2005.9.5) 78

( 2005.9.6) ( 2005.9.6) 2005 7.13-21 4 2 7.18-3 7.18-22 7.22-29 7.25-7.26-31 7.26-8.7 4 13 7.26-8.1 10+3 12 8.1-2 9 8.2-6 8.16-24 6 8.25-8.27-29 8.29-9.2 8.31-9.1 4 6 ( 2005.9.2p.7) 9.4-9 2 2 9.6-9.6-9.8-17 60 9.12-25 3 79

9.14-9.15-28 4 9.19-25 2 2 9.26-28 6 6 9.28-9.30-10.1 3 10 10.8-11 5 10.14-16 G20 7.13-7.16-7.17-7.19-7.19-7.25-9.1-9.1-9.2-9.5-9 ( 2005.9.6A13) 9.5-2 9.5-11 9.11-9.13-20 9.13-16 9.14-9.21-22 9 9.27- -2005 24 6 ( 2005.10.4) 9.28-9.28-80

81

4 1 5 18 7 8 14 22 2005.7.10 9 12 81

9 25 26 25 16 2005.9.27 2005.8.31 Los Angeles Times2005.9.24.PartA.P6 2005.9.30 8 5 4 8 6 3 2005.8.6 2005.8.8 2005.8.9 3 2005.8.9 8 15 23 82

2005.8.16 2005.8.1 2005.8.13 2005.8.16 2 2 6.8% 0.6 8 2 2 4.5%5.5% ( 2005.8.26 2005.8.27) ( 2005.8.27) 2 4% 5.5% 4% 5% ( 2005.8.27) 5 7 5.7% 4 6 9 12 ( 2005.8.18) 2 0.7% 1.5%( 2005.8.26) ( 2005.8.28) 83

912 18,000 40 1,480 37 700800 ( 2005.9.12) 7 17 23 2005.7.18 84

2005.7.18 2005.7.18 ( 2005.7.10) 0 10 5.81 32 60 60 28 2005.8.23 7 8 (14(1)14(2)1 4(5) ) 30 2002 85

4 ( 2005.7.9) ( 2005.7.9) 9 10 12 9 12 2005.9.12 2005.9.12 2005.9.12 2005.9.12 2005.9.14 86

2005.9.12 2005.9.14 2003 7 34 1 8,000 Market Insight Group 2005 27 2 23 1 7 4 2005.7.31 2005.8. 2005.7.31 9 External Risk 2005.9.6 87

2005.8.23 2005.8.1 2005.8.2? 3 2005.8.1A8 1999 2000 10 2005.8.29A22 8 26 28 3 Richard D Amato 2005.8.29 88

8 4 2007 stability without democracy is illusory 7 19 17 2005 1 6 1989 8 30 9 3 2005.8.31 9 23 89

2003 2 81 4 4 9 20 2005.9.23 4 2005.9.25 10 1 2005.9.24 3 3 9 25 29 12 10 7 18 125 4 10 90

10 10 58.39% 6.05 12 23,472 ( 澳門日報 星報 市民日報 2005.9.24) 7 29 ( 大眾報,2005.7.31) ( 澳門日報 新華澳報, 2005.7.8) 1 8 1 8 298 14% ( 澳門日報,2005.8.31) 2 2 (GDP) 8.2%1 0.4 ( 澳門日報,2005.9.8) 4 8 15% 460 470 ( 澳門日報,2005.9.2) 2005 6 8 4.1% 5 7 0.1 0.8 2005 6 8 25 24 91

1 ( 市民日報,2005.9.29) 29 7 15 (The Historic Center of Macao) ( 澳門日報,2005.7.16) 10.8% 5139 502 82 50% 1 ( 市民日報,2005.8.4) ( 大眾報,2005.8.6) 92

2 2 7 25 28 3 ( 澳門日報,2005.7.26) 2 703 1,150 13 23 ( 澳門日報,2005.7.29) 9 15 311 ( 澳門日報,2005.9.17) ( 澳門日報,2005.9.16) 9 16 17 3 9 18 ( 澳門日報,2005.9.19) ( 澳門 日報,2005.9.21) ( 澳門日報,2005.9.22) 93

( 澳門日報,2005.9.22) 9 28 ( 澳門日報, 2005.9.29) 2005 2005 7 18 18 280 ( 澳門日報 華僑報,2005.7.28) ( 華僑報,2005.7.29) ( 華僑報, 2005.8.8) 94

26 35 95

7 300 300 5 15 60 96

97

98