* 3 I. (Johnson et al., ) (IMF, 2) 1 199798 (IMF, 2) 1991 (IMF, 2) 2 1) 2) * 1 Altman (1968, ) (Z-score model) (multiple discriminant statistical methodology) 2 1 5
II III (IMF, 2).251.75 III. II. 5 1991 3 12 199179 717 4 3 1999 1 1999 (Brealey and Myers, 1991) 6 19 1991 7 (IMF, 2) 8 3 H Thomson Financial 4 54,823 717717 58.4% 5 (IMF, 2; Wong et al., ) 6 7 8 6
a. 1a 41%47% 9 1998 47%11 37% 9 1b1993 1 199821% 112% 1b 1 (a) 3 (b) 5 25 3 15 1 Thomson Financial 1. 1 2. 3. 9 41% 32%, 25% 13% (IMF, 2) 1 3.8%91% 7
2a 34%125% 1998 5%% 11 2b 12 1996 71%159% 13 1998 1 b. 2 (a) 9 (b) 5 8 7 3 5 Thomson Financial 1. 2. 3. 11 7% 57%% 45% (IMF, 2) 12 1 13 986% 176% 1 76% 8
3 (a) (b) 3 25 3-3 15-1 -9 5-1 Thomson Financial 1. 2. 3. 4. 1999 24%199815% 1% 3a19997 19%199811% 199726%19981 55%3b 18% 9 199496 13%16% 9(IMF, 2) 14 4a19981 18% 15 1998 15% 15%5% 18%1 %4b 14 15 1999 19981 9
4 (a) (b) 18 16 - - 14 - Thomson Financial 1. 2. H 3. 4. 1999 4 91%1 4% 1) 2) c. 5a1991996 17% 5 1 (a) (b) 1 15 8 1 5-5 -1 Thomson Financial 1. 2. H 3. 4. 1999 1
199% 1998 1 5b 16 19974 19 17 6 d. 1998 112 1998 88%117% 2, 6 (a) 2, (b) 1,5 1, -2, -4, 5-6, -8, Thomson Financial 1. 2. 3. 4.1999 16..3..8IMF, 2 17 19 1997 11
7 (IMF, 2) 18 175 e. 15 125 1 75 9 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 1 Thomson Financial 1. 2. H 3. 7 1 8%1991997 65% 8a %69% 9 8 (a) 1 (b) 8 1 7 1 8 5 Thomson Financial 1. 2. H 3. 18 12
8b9 1998 1 III. (Benito et al., 1) 3 19 19 313 3 11998 13
1 (1) (2) (6) (3) = (7) + (8) (4) = (9) + (5) (1) (11) 2 (12) (13) (14) (15) (16) = (12) - (13) (18) (17) (19) = (16) + (17) - (18) () (21) = (19) - () (23) = (21) - (22) (24) (22) 14
3 1a (1) - (11) (1) 1b (8) (8) + (11) 2a (7) (7) + (8) 2b (9) (7) + (8) 3 * (19) + (14) + (15) (12) 4 (16) + (14) + (15) (12) 5 () (19) 6 (6) (23) 7 (2) - (4) (7) + (1) 8a (12) (4) 8b (12) x 2 (5) t + (5) t-1 12 * 16 15