02 04 06 2 08 10 12 16 18 20 22 19 23 24 26 241 28 30 32 For a Better Tomorrow 2012 34 36 38 EMBA 39 43 46 48 50 52 20122 53 B. BoxII 56 58 59 60 62 o n t e n t s
1970Edward Norton Lorenz The Butterfly Effect 2002 2012 172 2
2012 3
20076 2012 20121723.3 201112745 35.40.87 90 10,00038 5,00027 17 4
8 5 4 2 4 2 5 3 7 4 4 2 77 45 32 19 19 11 10 6 2 1 38 22 27 16 90 52 17 10 2012 2012 5
20112012 2011 57 932 6 2 1,683 67 101
2012 90 5,000 19 2012
8
2011 2012 9
30 2011 10
11 2012 190 130
2011 2012 100 60 12
13 2012 33 2012 200988 75% 4
14 20119 2011 15 1 2
15 2012 10014 101 29 2012 2
16 60 5 11
17 2012 2010 50 2012 200 20116
2011 2007 2011 101 8 80 18
19 2012 2005 11 250 10 Von 2009321 5 3 VCD? 2011
19 20
20115 2012 21
22 19 48 1,000 2 5
23 2012 1 6 2008 2011 6
24 2012 10 PO 3 10 10 4 500
2008 30 2,110 2012 25
? 250 26
250 27 2012 2012 2012 70 250 3 1,683 50 11 1 30 100
103 BC 300B B 1 2012 120 6,000 2007728 18 300BC 28
7 1 2 5 2012 29
125 226 3 85 325 429 527 623 728 819 922 1021 Rose 4,141 Rose 1117 1215 300 2012 30
31 2012 60 101 1004,200 2012 5,000 101 101
For a Better Tomorrow 2012 2012 For a Better Tomorrow 1976 EasyHush! Mary See the FutureTizzy Bac 1,600 9,000 Taipei 101 80 32
2012 38 5,000 EMBA 2012 8
EMBA 34
2012 35
EMBA 2007 24 2011 EMBA EMBA EMBA 101EMBAEMBA Push yourself to the limit! 8 55 5.58 30 5 EMBA7 EMBA100 36
EMBA 20126 EMBA 9 300EMBA 6 EMBA 6 & 8 80,000 30,000 15,000 15,000 80,000 30,000 15,000 15,000 2012 37
38 2011 EMBA EMBA 2012EMBA 2012 EMBA 2012 EMBA EMBA9 EMBA EMBA EMBA 7WTO 7WTO WTO 20 2012 2012 24 200 8 51 82
2007 100 101 19 8 8 4 2012 39
40
41 2012 41 What s the next? 2 2 2 4 2 S&P500Beta S&P500Beta 2 8 7 Bloomberg What s the next? 2
42 8 2 2 2
5 50 2012 EMBA 201931 707161121 José A. Scheinkman WTO 2012 43
44 9 200 80 2012 30 500 2012 2011 201212 20 2012
2012 27 20122 B. BoxII 2012 45
2008 46
319 3,000 94 2012 47
20122 B. BoxII 48
2012 49
2012 500100 12 50
10 500 250 100 500 20122 20 B. BoxII 800 300 300 100 200 500 2012 51
52 20122 20122 20 DIY 20
B. BoxII B. Box II B. Box 2012 53
54 54 20 340 10 1980
2012 13 11 50 2012 55
20102 2 6,000 319 2011123319 6 900 201212368 56 57932
2012 57
58 58 2010
50 2012 50 11 11 15 59 2012 500300 2011 17,667 21.78% 2007 2012 4 6 284 DM
2012 520 40 10 10 10 2012 10 10 5 15 80 51,351 30 60
170 7,000 1206,000 120 50 240 10 2,600 500 30DIY 50 20 Proof 20 30 2012 15 30 B. Box 2 40-10 - 20 5 2012 61
2002 11 2007 2008 5 18000-2009 - - 2010 319 200Rueibin Chen- 88 62
2011 18 (20122017) 5 2011 EMBA 2012 2012 63
64