EQUITY RESEARCH 中 國 南 方 航 空 (1055.HK) 短 期 業 績 波 動 不 改 長 期 向 上 趨 勢 香 港 航 空 運 輸 更 新 報 告 去 年 業 績 符 合 預 期 南 方 航 空 2015 年 全 年 實 現 收 入 1116.5 億 人 民 幣 元, 同 比 增 加 2.8%, 歸 屬 於 公 司 股 東 淨 利 潤 37.36 億 元, 同 比 大 幅 增 加 110.2%, 翻 番 有 餘 每 股 收 益 0.38 元, 每 股 派 息 0.08 元, 派 息 率 21%, 業 績 符 合 我 們 預 期 美 元 負 債 比 例 大 幅 下 調, 匯 率 彈 性 顯 著 下 降 正 如 我 們 在 之 前 報 告 中 指 出, 由 於 美 元 負 債 比 例 最 高,2015 年 南 航 的 匯 兌 淨 損 失 為 59.5 億 元, 是 三 大 航 中 最 高 的 然 而, 公 司 通 過 大 量 的 置 換 美 元 負 債 為 人 民 幣 負 債, 將 美 元 負 債 比 例 從 2014 年 底 的 93% 下 降 至 2015 年 底 的 61%, 是 三 大 航 中 調 整 力 度 最 堅 決 的 據 目 前 比 例 估 算, 人 民 幣 每 貶 值 1%, 南 航 淨 利 潤 將 只 減 少 4.4 億 元, 風 險 敞 口 顯 著 縮 小 借 款 方 面, 南 航 償 還 了 100 億 左 右 的 負 債, 資 產 負 債 率 下 降 4 個 百 分 點 至 73%, 並 將 現 有 負 債 中 的 浮 動 利 率 貸 款 置 換 為 固 定 利 率 貸 款, 盡 可 能 的 降 低 美 國 加 息 預 期 對 公 司 未 來 的 負 面 影 響 儘 管 手 握 現 金 減 少 100 億 左 右, 考 慮 到 尚 未 使 用 的 銀 行 授 信 額 度 高 達 1310 億, 管 理 層 認 為 公 司 的 流 動 資 金 足 以 應 付 營 運 及 資 本 開 支 所 需 一 季 度 業 績 繼 續 向 好, 多 賺 41% 2016 年 第 一 季 度 公 司 業 績 繼 續 向 好 發 展, 在 收 入 穩 定 的 情 況 下, 歸 屬 淨 利 潤 大 漲 41% 至 26.83 億 元, 合 每 股 收 益 0.27 元 買 入 ( 維 持 ) 8 JUNE 2016 現 價 : HKD 4.67 ( 現 價 截 至 6 月 6 日 ) 目 標 價 : HKD 5.66 (+21%) 公 司 資 料 普 通 股 股 東 ( 百 萬 股 ) : 9819 市 值 ( 港 幣 百 萬 元 ) : 13052 52 周 最 高 價 / 最 低 價 ( 港 幣 元 ) : 10.36 / 4.00 主 要 股 東 % 中 國 南 方 航 空 集 團 公 司 53.13 香 港 中 央 結 算 ( 代 理 人 ) 有 限 公 司 17.83 股 價 & HSI 指 數 投 資 建 議 短 期 業 績 波 動 不 改 長 期 向 上 趨 勢 油 價 和 匯 率 的 波 動 在 短 期 內 會 造 成 航 空 公 司 業 績 的 波 動, 不 過 我 們 認 為, 中 國 居 民 出 境 游 國 內 長 途 旅 遊 等 消 費 性 需 求 成 長 具 備 逆 週 期 特 徵, 目 前 正 進 入 快 速 增 長 階 段, 未 來 空 間 廣 闊 預 計 未 來 2 年 南 航 將 在 深 圳 機 場 加 大 國 際 航 線 比 例,2018 年 廣 州 白 雲 機 場 擴 建 工 程 完 工 後, 機 場 產 能 瓶 頸 將 進 一 步 突 破, 利 好 南 航 以 廣 州 為 中 心 的 樞 紐 網 絡 佈 局 根 據 最 新 的 數 據, 我 們 調 整 公 司 2016/2017 年 的 每 股 盈 利 預 測 至 0.58/0.79 元 人 民 幣, 維 持 買 入 評 級 目 標 價 5.66 港 元, 對 應 2016/2017 年 各 8/6 倍 預 計 市 盈 率,1/0.9 倍 預 計 市 淨 率 ( 現 價 截 至 6 月 6 日 ) Source: aastock, Phillip Securities (HK) Research 財 務 資 料 CNY mn FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E Net Sales 108,584111,652120,126130,651 Net Profit 1,777 3,736 5,686 7,715 EPS, CNY 0.18 0.38 0.58 0.79 P/E, x 20.3 10.3 6.8 5.0 BVPS, CNY 3.64 3.98 4.48 5.25 P/BV, x 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.8 DPS (CNY) 0.04 0.08 0.11 0.15 Div. Yield (%) 1.2% 2.0% 2.8% 3.8% Source: Company reports, Phillip Securities Est. 研 究 分 析 員 章 晶 (+ 86 51699400-103) zhangjing@phillip.com.cn Page 1 PHILLIPCAPITAL HONGKONG RESEARCH
風 險 油 價 大 幅 上 漲 人 民 幣 加 速 貶 值 超 出 預 期 航 空 事 故 及 流 行 病 如 SARS 事 件 經 濟 下 滑 超 出 預 期 影 響 航 空 出 行 需 求 CSA s Forward P/B in ten years 4.5 4 3.5 3 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 January-07 July-07 BEst P/Bk (Curr Ann) Source: Bloomberg, Phillip Securities Hong Kong Research average EP/B January-08 July-08 January-09 July-09 January-10 July-10 January-11 July-11 January-12 July-12 January-13 July-13 January-14 July-14 January-15 July-15 January-16 Page 2 PHILLIPCAPITAL HONGKONG RESEARCH
財 務 報 告 FYE DEC FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16F FY17F Valuation Ratios P/E (X), adj. 7.3 14.0 18.1 20.3 10.3 6.8 5.0 P/B (X) 1.15 1.12 1.05 1.01 0.98 0.88 0.75 Dividend Yield (%) 5.3% 1.3% 1.1% 1.2% 2.0% 2.8% 3.8% Per share data (RMB) EPS, reported 0.52 0.27 0.20 0.18 0.38 0.58 0.79 EPS, adj. 0.52 0.27 0.20 0.18 0.38 0.58 0.79 DPS 0.2 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.08 0.11 0.15 BVPS 3.28 3.34 3.50 3.64 3.98 4.48 5.25 Grow th & Margins (%) Grow th Revenue 18.2% 10.1% -1.0% 10.2% 2.8% 7.6% 8.8% EBIT -53.5% 17.1% -70.4% 214.4% 183.0% 5.9% 12.3% Net Income, adj. -11.8% -48.7% -24.2% -10.5% 110.2% 52.2% 35.7% Margins EBIT margin 4.8% 5.1% 1.5% 4.4% 12.0% 11.9% 12.2% Net Profit Margin 5.7% 2.6% 2.0% 1.6% 3.3% 4.7% 5.9% D/E 38.4% 18.7% 19.8% 23.8% 21.0% 19.0% 19.1% Key Ratios ROE (%) 15.9% 8.1% 5.9% 5.1% 10.0% 13.7% 16.2% ROA (%) 3.9% 1.8% 1.3% 1.0% 2.0% 2.9% 3.5% Income Statement (RMB mn) Revenue 90,395 99,514 98,547 108,584 111,652 120,126 130,651 Operating expenses (87,063) (95,877) (98,280) (106,026) (101,492) (109,351) (118,278) Other Gains-net 1,021 1,462 1,243 2,190 3,278 3,461 3,615 Profit from operations 4,353 5,099 1,510 4,748 13,438 14,236 15,988 Non-operating income/expense 2,577 (361) 1,974 (1,682) (7,320) (5,331) (4,509) Profit before tax 6,930 4,738 3,484 3,066 6,118 8,905 11,479 Tax (840) (954) (734) (668) (1,300) (1,888) (2,433) Profit for the period 6,090 3,784 2,750 2,398 4,818 7,017 9,045 Minority interests (980) (1,165) (764) (621) (1,082) (1,331) (1,330) Total capital share 9,818 9,818 9,818 9,818 9,818 9,818 9,818 Net profit 5,110 2,619 1,986 1,777 3,736 5,686 7,715 Source: PSR (Financial figures as at 6 June 2016) Page 3 PHILLIPCAPITAL HONGKONG RESEARCH
PHILLIP RESEARCH STOCK SELECTION SYSTEMS Total Return Recommendation Rating Remarks >+20% Buy 1 >20% upside from the current price +5% to +20% Accumulate 2 +5% to +20%upside from the current price -5% to +5% Neutral 3 Trade within ± 5% from the current price -5% to -20% Reduce 4-5% to -20% downside from the current price <-20% Sell 5 >20%downside from the current price We do not base our recommendations entirely on the above quantitative return bands. We consider qualitative factors like (but not limited to) a stock's risk reward profile, market sentiment, recent rate of share price appreciation, presence or absence of stock price catalysts, and speculative undertones surrounding the stock, before making our final recommendation GENERAL DISCLAIMER This publication is prepared by Phillip Securities (Hong Kong) Ltd ( Phillip Securities ). By receiving or reading this publication, you agree to be bound by the terms and limitations set out below. 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SINGAPORE Phillip Securities Pte Ltd 250 North Bridge Road, #06-00 Raffles City Tower, Singapore 179101 Tel : (65) 6533 6001 Fax: (65) 6535 3834 www.phillip.com.sg INDONESIA PT Phillip Securities Indonesia ANZ Tower Level 23B, Jl Jend Sudirman Kav 33A, Jakarta 10220, Indonesia Tel (62) 21 5790 0800 Fax: (62) 21 5790 0809 www.phillip.co.id THAILAND Phillip Securities (Thailand) Public Co. Ltd. 15th Floor, Vorawat Building, 849 Silom Road, Silom, Bangrak, Bangkok 10500 Thailand Tel (66) 2 2268 0999 Fax: (66) 2 2268 0921 www.phillip.co.th UNITED STATES Phillip Futures Inc. 141 W Jackson Blvd Ste 3050 The Chicago Board of Trade Building Chicago, IL 60604 USA Tel (1) 312 356 9000 Fax: (1) 312 356 9005 Contact Information (Regional Member Companies) MALAYSIA Phillip Capital Management Sdn Bhd B-3-6 Block B Level 3, Megan Avenue II, No. 12, Jalan Yap Kwan Seng, 50450 Kuala Lumpur Tel (60) 3 2162 8841 Fax (60) 3 2166 5099 www.poems.com.my CHINA Phillip Financial Advisory (Shanghai) Co. Ltd. No 436 Heng Feng Road, Green Tech Tower Unit 604 Shanghai 200 070 Tel (86) 21 5169 9400 Fax: (86) 21 6091 1155 www.phillip.com.cn FRANCE King & Shaxson Capital Ltd. 3rd Floor, 35 Rue de la Bienfaisance 75008 Paris France Tel (33) 1 4563 3100 Fax : (33) 1 4563 6017 www.kingandshaxson.com AUSTRALIA PhillipCapital Australia Level 12, 15 William Street, Melbourne, Victoria 3000, Australia Tel: (61) 3 9618 8238 Fax: (61) 3 9200 2277 www.phillipcapital.com.au HONG KONG Phillip Securities (HK) Ltd 11/F United Centre 95 Queensway Hong Kong Tel (852) 2277 6600 Fax: (852) 2868 5307 www.phillip.com.hk JAPAN Phillip Securities Japan, Ltd 4-2 Nihonbashi Kabutocho, Chuo-ku Tokyo 103-0026 Tel: (81) 3 3666 2101 Fax: (81) 3 3664 0141 www.phillip.co.jp INDIA PhillipCapital (India) Private Limited No. 1, 18th Floor, Urmi Estate, 95 Ganpatrao Kadam Marg, Lower Parel West, Mumbai 400013 Tel: (9122) 2300 2999 Fax: (9122) 6667 9955 www.phillipcapital.in UNITED KINGDOM King & Shaxson Ltd. 6th Floor, Candlewick House, 120 Cannon Street London, EC4N 6AS Tel (44) 20 7929 5300 Fax: (44) 20 7283 6835 www.kingandshaxson.com SRI LANKA Asha Phillip Securities Limited Level 4, Millennium House, 46/58 Navam Mawatha, Colombo 2, Sri Lanka Tel: (94) 11 2429 100 Fax: (94) 11 2429 199 www.ashaphillip.net/home.htm Page 5 PHILLIPCAPITAL HONGKONG RESEARCH