28 4 2010 12 1006-7639 2010-04 - 0411-07 Journal of Arid Meteorology Vol. 28 No. 4 Dec 2010 50 a 1 2 3 4 1 1. 737200 2. 733300 3. 737100 4. 733000 1959 ~ 2009 Mann - Kendall T - Yamamoto 1990 1996 50 a 1983 1992 ~ 2009 20. 6 mm 1984 50 a 86% 3 a 1960 1990 1970 ~ 1978 1992 ~ 2009 1998 P468. 0 A IPCC 2007 100 a 1906 ~ 2005 0. 74 50 a 0. 13 /10 a 1850 1 12 11 1995 ~ 2006 1. 1 50 a 1961 ~ 1993 1. 8 mm 3. 1 mm 108 1. 1 ~ 6. 4 18 ~ 59 cm 1 0. 2 ~ 0. 8 /10 a 2 20 1. 2 3 1959 ~ 2009 4 1990 5 Mann - Kendall T 2010-03 - 02 2010-09 - 25 1966 -. E - mail yctsc@ 126. com Journal of Arid Meteorology 2010 28 4 411-417 411
412 28 Yamamoto 6 1960 ~ 1980 7 1990 1959 K = 0. 16 T 10 2000 4 T R 10 > 10 10 2 R 10 > 10 K 1960 de Martonne 7 I dm = P / T 1990 1970 ~ 1980 + 10 P T I dm de 1996 13 a Martonne 1975 ~ 1998 1960 ~ 1975 2 1960 ~ 1970 1967 50 a 3. 8-0. 2-0. 3 1980 1960 1970 1980-0. 95 0. 52 0. 32 0. 64 /10 a 1990 1 4 Tab. 1 The decadal change of seasonal temperature 1990 anomaly in Yongchang county Unit 2000 ~ 2009 0. 78 /10 a 0. 6 / 10 a 1993 1995 1996 1998 2006 2009 50 a 1. 4 10 a 1978 2. 1 2. 1. 1 1978 1989 1 1959 ~ 2009 50 a 5 a 50 0. 23 /10 a 0. 24 /10 a a 0. 24 /10 a 0. 26 /10 a 0. 38 /10 a 3 0. 259 /10 a 4 1960-0. 8 0. 1 0. 1-0. 2-0. 2 1970-0. 3-0. 3-0. 3-0. 6-0. 3 1980-0. 2-0. 2-0. 1-0. 4-0. 1 1990 0. 5 0. 2 0. 3 0. 0 0. 3 2000 ~ 2009 0. 7 1. 0 1. 0 0. 7 0. 8 2. 2 2. 2. 1 50 a 1960-23. 5 mm /10 a 1970-11. 8 mm /10 a 1980 0. 98 mm /10 a 1990 13. 7 mm /10 a 3 1959 1 1959 ~ 2009 ~ 2009 3 a 1982 Fig. 1 The annual change of average temperature 201. 7 mm 1983 ~ 1991 departure in Yongchang county during 1959-2009 50 a 23 a 1960 4 a 2. 1. 2 1970 3 a 1980 4 a 1990 12 a 1 52 % 1992 18 a 412 Journal of Arid Meteorology 2010 28 4 411-417
4 50 a 413 2 Fig. 2 The annual change of seasonal average temperature in Yongchang county during 1959-2009 1960 1990 1980 3 2000 ~ 2009 Fig. 3 The yearly change of annual precipitation 4 in Yongchang county from 1959 to 2009 20. 6 mm 80% 2 4 2007 294. 6 Tab. 2 The decadal change of seasonal precipitation mm anomaly percentage in Yongchang > 10 mm 4. 4 5. 1 1993 278. 5 1960-10. 0% 10. 0% - 20. 0% 10. 0% - 10. 1% mm 2002 269. 7 mm 2003 201. 7 mm 1992 5 a 50 a 1970 1980 1990 1987 2. 2. 2 2 50 a 1960 ~ 1980 1990 1970 1960 ~ 1970 1990 1980 2000 ~ 2009 1960 1970 2000 ~ 2009 1980 ~ 1990 1970 1970 10. 0% - 20. 0% - 20. 0% 30. 0% - 4. 9% 1980 0. 0% 10. 0% 0. 0% - 20. 0% 0. 9% 1990-20. 0% 20. 0% 10. 0% - 20. 0% 2. 0% 2000 ~ 2009 0. 0% 20. 0% 0. 0% 30. 0% 10. 7% Journal of Arid Meteorology 2010 28 4 411-417 413
414 28 4 Fig. 4 The yearly change of seasonal precipitation in Yongchang from 1959 to 2009 2000 3 a 5 5 a T 50 a 50 a 6 1983 1992 2003 2009 1970 2. 3 t α = 4. 032 n 1 n 2 t 0 n 1 = 38 n 2 = 13 Mann - Kendall UF K 1959 ~ 1996 1997 ~ 2009 2 UF α = 0. 05 U 0. 05 = ± 1. 96 t 0 = 7. 178 > 4. 032 UF K > U a 1996 UB 21 a UF UB 1997 1996 1974 1984 1996 α = 0. 01 1959 ~ 2009 5 1980 ~ 1990 1990 5 Yamamoto 0. 05 0. 01 1996 SBN = 1. 2428 > 1 1993 SBN = U 0. 01 = 2. 56 0. 9359 < 1 1996 1993 UF UB 1996 50 a 1993 1996 414 Journal of Arid Meteorology 2010 28 4 411-417
4 50 a 415 5 Fig. 5 The yearly abrupt change of temperature in Yongchang county from 1959 to 2009 Mann - Kendall 1959 ~ 2009 α = 0. 05 t α = 1. 69 1966 > t α 1959 ~ 1982 1983 ~ 2009 1959 ~ 1984 1984 1985 ~ 2009 1959 ~ 1991 1992 ~ 2009 3 a T 1963 1966 1982 50 a 8 1984 1992 50 a 1963 ~ 1969 1970 ~ 1981 1963 1982 1992 1982 ~ 1991 1992 M - K ~ 2009 α = 0. 05 6 50 a t α = 3. 182 n 1 n 2 1963 1966 1982 t 0 n 1 1984 1992 n 2 1959 ~ 1963 1964 ~ 2009 t 0 = 3. 747 > t α 1959 ~ 1966 1967 ~ 2009 t 0 = 3. 194 t 0 < t α t 0 3. 044 6 Fig. 6 The yearly abrupt change of precipitation in Yongchang from 1959 to 2009 Yamamoto 3 Yamamoto 3 1963 Tab. 3 Yamamoto test of corresponding time to seek the 1963 truth or falsity of precipitation abrupt change year 1959 ~ 1963 4 a 1962 1963 1966 1982 1984 1992 50 a M - K 1984 1984 SBN 0. 8985 1. 0391 0. 6598 0. 3703 0. 5236 0. 4692 Journal of Arid Meteorology 2010 28 4 411-417 415
416 28 2. 4 1970 ~ 1978 1992 ~ 2007 50 a K 50 a Martonne 7 1 ~ 1. 5 1. 5 ~ 4. 0 I dm < 10 10 ~ 30 50 a 86% >30 7 3 a 1960 10 de Martonne 1990 1991 1963 1980 7 7 Fig. 7 The abrupt change trend of annual dryness in Yongchang from 1959 to 2009 2. 5 50 a 109 d 158 d 2008 76 d 1969 82 d 8 1960 5 d 1970 8 d 1980 10 d 1990 6 d 2000 ~ 2009 8 24 d Fig. 8 The yearly change of frost - free 3 a 3 period in Yongchang 1 1959 ~ 1984 26 a 75% 50 a 1965 1967 1978 24 d 1998 ~ 2009 50 a 3 1981 1983 12 d 1 2 1991 ~ 1997 3 1985 ~ 1990 1998 ~ 2009 2 17 d 20 d10 a 1970 416 Journal of Arid Meteorology 2010 28 4 411-417
4 50 a 417 ~ 1978 1992 ~ 2009 1980 3 1996 5 3 a J 1984 530. 50 a 4 7 1959 ~ 1984 1998 10 a 24 d 8 5 50 a 4. 50 J. 2002 38 2 163-170.. 50 a. 2008 28 4 512-6 M. 1999. 69-75.. J. 2004 28 6 582-861.. 47a J. 2007 25 2 50-54. 9. J. 2006 24 2 57-60. 10. 50 a 1990 J. 2009 11 27 3 221-226.. 250 a J. 2007 25 2 56-60. 12. 38a J. 2007 27 6 1048-1054. 1. J. 13. 2007 3 2 63-73. J. 2005 25 2 135-141. 2. 50 14. 40 J. J. 2005 28 2 176-182. 2009 20 1 103-106. 3. 15. J. 1992 16 J. 2003 23 2 153-165. 4 482-493. Climate Analysis in Recent 50 Years in Jinchang of Gansu Province TENG Shuichang 1 ZHAO Mingrui 2 ZHAI Cheng 3 YIN Yuchun 4 WANG Shengyuan 1 1. Yongchang Meteorological Station of Gansu Province Yongchang 737200 China 2. Minqin Meteorological Station of Gansu Province Minqin 733000 China 3. Jinchang Meteorological Bureau of Gansu Province Jinchang 737100 China 4. Wuwei Meteorological Bureau of Gansu Province Wuwei 733000 China Abstract The monthly seasonal and annual average temperature series precipitation in Yongchang during 1959-2009 was analyzed using linear and polynomial regression methods. The results show that the average temperature presented increasing trend the abrupt change occurred in 1996 for temperature. The annual precipitation also showed increase trend since 1983 and during 1992-2009 annual precipitation was 20. 6 mm more than climate average value and abrupt change occurred in 1984 for precipitation. In the 1960s and the early of 1990s it was relatively dry the driest year in history occurred in this period and during 1970-1978 1992-2009 it was relatively humid the frost - free period prolonged since 1998 and it was gradually moving to the relatively warm and humid period. Key words annual average temperature annual rainfall dryness frost - free period variation Journal of Arid Meteorology 2010 28 4 411-417 417