30 4 2010 7 JOURNAL OFDESERT RESEARCH Vol.30 No.4 Jul.2010 :1000-694X(2010)04-0926-07 50a 12 12 12 3 (1. 100875;2. 100875;3. 130024) : 46 1957 2007 Mann-Kendal R/S 50a 20 90 99% 0.32 /10a ;Hurst ; 90 : ; ; :P468.021 :A IPCC (2007) 1970 1 [1] [11] [2] ( 1) [3-4] [5-6] 10 177 ( ) 4 20 7.26 10 7 hm 2 50% [7] [8] 2~ [9] 8 300~450mm 1961 2000 ( 25%) 40a [12] [10] (Ⅰ- ) (Ⅱ- ) (Ⅲ- ) ( 1) ; ; 2 46 1957 2007 2.1 Mann-Kendal R/S ( htp://cdc.cma.gov.cn/) :2009 11 11; :2009 12 10 : (2007CB106807); (40871055); (070104) : (1983 ) : Email:dongmy@ires.cn : (Email:jiangy@bnu.edu.cn)
4 : 50a 927 1 Fig.1 Distributionofmeteorologicalstationsinfarming-pastoralecotoneofnorthernChinaanditsadjacentarea x k-x t 0 ;sgn(x k-x t ) 46 1957 2007 1 0-1 -Z 1-a/2 Z c Z 1-a/2 50a H 0 ±Z 1-α /2 1 -α/2 α (1 12 Kendal ) (3 5 ) (6 8 ) (9 11 ) (12 2 ) : ( ) β= Median xi -x j j<i (3) i-j 2.2 :1<j<i<n β β >0 2.2.1 Mann-Kendal β <0 Mann-Kendal Mann-Kendal (WMO) [17-19] [19] 2.2.2 R/S [13-16] H 0 R/S X (HurstH E) 1965 Mandelbrot H 1 X Mann- [16] Kendal : 烄 S-1 槡 var(s ) S >0 [20-21] R/S (R) Z c = 烅 0 S =0 (1) S S+1 槡 var(s ) S < 0 (R/S) 烆 [21] : n-1 n S = sgn(x k -x t ) (2) R(τ) t=1 k=t+1 S(τ) = (ατ) H (4)
928 30 :α ;τ ;H 80% Hurst H=0.5 90 21 ; H >0.5 90% 50a H 1 ;0 H<0.5 ( 1) 1 70 H 0 3 80 ;2 60 50 80 3.1 ;3 2 1 2 60 1 ( : ) :20 80 Table1 Decadalvariationsofannualandseasonalmean airtemperatureanomaliesinthefarming-pastoral ecotoneofnorthernchina( ) 1957 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 1959 1969 1979 1989 1999 2007-1.09-0.46-0.56-0.11 0.66 1.02-0.65-0.30-0.35-0.04 0.13 0.93-0.50-0.47-0.28-0.29 0.45 0.86-0.51-1.07-0.54-0.19 1.44 0.61-0.53-0.45-0.30-0.03 0.80 0.98-0.65-0.40-0.55-0.15 0.34 1.19-0.62-0.10-0.45-0.21 0.27 0.83-0.70-0.43-0.31-0.21 0.50 0.83-1.13-1.20-0.31-0.30 1.20 1.19-0.77-0.53-0.40-0.22 0.58 1.00-0.04-0.19-0.40-0.29 0.29 0.77-0.23-0.30-0.23-0.25 0.26 0.71-0.51-0.43-0.36 0.00 0.51 0.57-0.82-0.94-0.40-0.02 0.72 1.12-0.45-0.46-0.35-0.13 0.45 0.80 3.2 Mann-Kendal 2 3 2 ( 3) M-K Fig.2 Curvesofannualmeanairtemperatureanomalies inthefarming-pastoralecotoneofnorthernchina 1957 1962 1962 1970
4 : 50a 929 1970 20 90 > > 99% 0.21 /10a 0.32 /10a 2 Hurst (0.22 /10a [22] 0.13 /10a [1] ) H 0.8 Hurst [23] [20] ( 3) 20 50a 2 H 99% 0.8 ; (z c>2.58) H > > 0.5 /10a [24] 50a [22] : (Ⅰ): : > 3 Mann-Kendal Fig.3 TheMann-Kendaltrendtestforannualmeanairtemperatureinthefarming-pastoralecotoneofnorthernChina 2 Table2 TheMann-Kendaltrendtestresultsforannualandseasonalmeanairtemperature inthefarming-pastoralecotoneofnorthernchina β /( a -1 ) 0.040 0.017 0.029 0.051 0.033 zc 3.744 3.614 3.354 3.598 5.125 H 0.733 0.696 0.758 0.847 0.874 β /( a -1 ) 0.035 0.015 0.032 0.055 0.037 zc 4.670 3.533 4.102 4.946 5.791 H 0.731 0.728 0.767 0.912 0.921 β /( a -1 ) 0.021 0.020 0.028 0.050 0.028 zc 3.533 3.891 4.573 5.531 5.596 H 0.686 0.686 0.854 0.931 0.909
930 30 3 Hurst Table3 ClasificationsystemofHurstIndex Hurst Hurst 1 0.50<H 0.55-1 0.45<H 0.50 2 0.55<H 0.65-2 0.35<H 0.45 3 0.65<H 0.75-3 0.25<H 0.35 4 0.75<H 0.80-4 0.20<H 0.25 5 0.80<H 1.00-5 0.00<H 0.20 3.3 99% AicGIS [25] Kendal β 89%76%85%96%100% ( 4) 4 β Fig.4 βcontourofannualandseasonalmeanairtemperaturechangeinthefarming-pastoralecotoneofnorthernchina
4 : 50a 931 4 ( 4A) Mann-Kendal R/S 0.42 /10a 50a 0.1 /10a ; : 1) 50a -0.04~0.35 /10a :20 80 90 21 0.27 /10a 90 0.04 99% /10a ( 4B); 2) 50 0.32 /10a 0.41 /10a > (-0.01 /10a)( 4C); > > Hurst 0.74 /10 3) 0.38 /10a( 4D); 0.47 /10a 0.47 /10a 0.16 /10a 4) 50a 0.37~0.47 /10a 20 90 0.16 /10a( 4E) (References): 3.4 Mann-Kendal icalgeography199721(3):315-353. [3] 200127(5):3-7. [19] 4 Mann-Kendal 1957 2007 [1] IPCC.ClimateChange2007:ThePhysicalBasisClimate[R]. Cambridge:CambridgeUniversityPress2007:18. [2] MartinKWendyJGRuthE Wetal.Landscapeandplant communityboundariesinbio-geography[j].progressinphys-. [J]. [4]. :Ⅰ. [J]. 200727(1):32-39. [5]. [J]. 200518(3):274-280. [6]. [J]. 20 90 [26] 200313(6):651-654. [7]. 4 [J]. 20073(2):91-94. Table4 Catastrophechangeyearsofannualmeanair temperatureinthefarming-pastoralecotoneof northernchinabymann-kendaltest [8] [9]. [J]. 200459(2):230-238.. 40 [J]. ( )200737(4):653-656. 1992 1992 1990 [10].
932 30 [J]. 200221 (1):54-60. [11]. 199216(4):482-493. [J]. (E )200636( ):124-132. [12]. [J]. 200726(4):835-843. [J]. 200819(9):2016-2022. Kendaltrendtestunderthescalinghypothesis[J].Journalof Hydrology2008349:350-363. [14]. [23]. [J]. 200828(2):362-369. [15]. [J]. [24]. 50 200828(5):915-919. [16]. [25]. [J]. 200629(2):186-192. [17]. 40 [26]. [J]. 200525(1):137-139. [18]. 1961 2000 [J]. 200828(5):908-914. [19]. [J]. [20]. [21]. [J]. 200830(3):363-370. [22]. (Ⅰ): [J]. 2006 2(1):3-8. [M]. : 2007:91-97. [J]. 200462(2):228-236. [J]. 200828(6):1151-1155. [J]. 200832(4):794-805. [13] HamedK H.Trenddetectioninhydrologicdata:The Mann- VariationTrendandCatastropheChangeofAirTemperatureintheFarming- PastoralEcotoneofNorthernChinaduringRecent50Years DONG Man-yu 1 2 JIANGYuan 1 2 RENFei-peng 1 2 WUZheng-fang 3 1.State Key Laboratoryof Earth Surface Processesand Resource Ecology Beijing Normal University Beijing100875 China 2.Colegeof ResourcesScience & Technology Beijing Normal University Beijing 100875 China 3.Schoolof Urbanand EnvironmentalScience Northeast Normal University Changchun130024 China Abstract Basedonairtemperaturedatain1957 2007from46meteorologicalstationsinthefarming-pasto- ralecotoneofnorthernchinaanditsadjacentarea thispaperanalyzedthevariationtrendofairtemperature anditscatastrophechangeusingthenonparametricmann-kendaltrendtestandr/smethods.theresults showedthattheannualandseasonalmeanairtemperatureintheresearchregionhadbeenrisingduring these50years andasignificantlyincreasingtrendsincethe1990swasdetected whicharrivesat99%con- fidencelevel.theannualmeanairtemperatureincreasedatarateof0.32 /10a whichwashigherthan thatofournationandthewholeworld.thiswasmainlycontributedbyahigherrateofairtemperaturein- creaseinwinter.ananalysisbasedonhurstindexshowsthattheannualandseasonalmeanairtemperature wilincreasecontinualyinthisareainthefuture andtheincreasingtrendwilbemoreobviousinwinter. Theincreasingrangeofannualandseasonalmeanairtemperatureexhibitedregionaldiversity.Acatastro- phechangeofannualmeanairtemperatureoccurredintheearly1990s. Keywords airtemperature variationtrend catastrophechange farming-pastoralecotone