GEOGRAPHICAL RESEARCH Vol.31,No.3 Mar.,2012, (, ) :21,,,,,, 1980~2010, :,, ;, ;, ;,,,, : ; ; ; ; ; : (2012)

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1 GEOGRAPHICAL RESEARCH Vol.31No.3 Mar.2012 ( ) : ~2010 : ; ; ; : ; ; ; ; ; : (2012) : OPEC ; % 12.22% [1] 18.66%; 6% % 21.58% 1956 [1~3] ; [5~7] ;2001 [78] [37] ; : ; : : ( ); ( ); : (1981-) lisahul@163.com

2 % 2 [1011] [112~16] ; [17~21] [22~26] ; [27~31] ; ; ; (1) [32] (M) (F U ) (F L ) (Min) (Max) (Box) ; (d F ) (Box) 50% ;F U +3/2d F F L -3/2d F (outliercutofs) ; (F U +3/2d F F U +3d F ) 1 [9] 2 BPStatisticalReviewofWorldEnergy2011

3 3 : 509 (F L-3d F F L-3/2d F ) (mildoutliers) F U +3d F F L-3d F (extremeoutliers) * ( 1) [3233] ( ) ( 1) [3233] 1 Fig.1 Boxplotsofasetof positivelyskeweddata ArcView GIS (2) ArcView GIS Jenk (Natural Break) ( ~ ) (3) = /

4 ; ; BPStatisticalReview of WorldEnergy =1t; ; (EnergyStatisticsDatabaseht- tp://data.un.org/data.aspx d=edata&f=cmid%3acr%3btrid%3a04) 3 ( 1~ 3 2~ 6) ~ ; 2 Fig.2 Boxplotsandgradingofworldoilprovedreserves : I- ; I- ; I- ;IV- ;V-

5 3 : Tab.1 Statisticalindicatorsintheboxplotsofworldoilsupplies /Mt /Mt /Mt (FU ) (M) (FL) (df=fu -FL) (NOMax) (NOMin) (FU -M) Tab.2 IntervaldistributionofAfricancountriesintheboxplotsofworldoilsupplies / / / / / / / [FU NOMax] [MFU ) * ( ) * * * * [FLM) ( ) * ( ) * / ( ) ( ) * ( ) * ( ) [NOMinFL) * * * ( ) / : / * 3 Tab.3 Thenumberofcountriesofeachgradeindiferentpaternsofworldoilsupply /Mt /Mt /Mt

6 ( 2) 1980 ~ 31.66% 0.79; % 1.12 ~ ( 4a) - ( 2) % % 3.2 ( 2 3) ~ ; 3 Fig.3 Boxplotsandgradingofworldoilproduction

7 3 : Fig.4 Rankeddistributionpaternsofworldoilsupply ~ ~ ( 2) 1980 ~

8 ~ ~ 90.66% ( ) ~ ~ 2010 ~ ( 0.99) ~ OPEC ~ ~ ( ) ( ) ( 4b) ~ ~ ; ; 1.13 ; ; 3.3 ( 2 5)

9 3 : 515 ~ 2010 ( 2) ~ Fig.5 BoxplotsandgradingofworldoilR/Pratio ~ 30 ~ ( 4c) ~ ;

10 ( ) ~ 6 Fig.6 Boxplotsandgradingofworldoilexports ( 2) ; 36.51% ~ ; 2008 ( ~ ) ( 4a 4c 4d); ( 4b 4d) 2008

11 3 : 517 ; ; 15.74% 17.73% (1) 1980~2010 ; ( ) ; - (2) ; (3) % 1 1 BPStatisticalReviewofWorldEnergy2011

12 (4) % 59.79% 75.14% (2008 ) (1) [34] [518] ( ) (2) ; % % [34] 1 BPStatisticalReviewofWorldEnergy2011

13 3 : [3536] [37~40] : [1] AfricanDevelopmentBanktheAfricanUnion.OilandGasinAfrica.New York:OxfordUniversityPress2009. [2] JedrzejGFManuelP.AnewscrambleforAfricanoil Historicalpoliticalandbusinessperspectives.AfricanAf- fairs (423)229~251. [3]. 2008(3):7~11. [4]. 2007(1):32~34. [5]. 2003(4):74~56. [6] XuY C.ChinaandtheUnitedStatesinAfrica:Comingconflictorcommercialcoexistence AustralianJournalof InternationalAfairs200862(1):16~37. [7]. 2010(1):57~62. [8] (3):74~78. [9] (3):15~27. [10] HurstC.China soilrushinafrica.washington:institutefortheanalysisofglobalsecurity. nainafrica.pdf [11]. 2006(11):32~37. [12] KletT RGautierD LAhlbrandtTS.AnEvaluationoftheUSGS WorldPetroleum Assessment2000.AAPG Buletin200589(8):1033~1042. [13] RiaziM R.EnergyEconomyEnvironmentandSustainableDevelopmentintheMiddleEastandNorthAfrica.In- ternationaljournalofoilgasandcoaltechnology20103(3):201~244. [14]. 2008(12):96~103. [15]. 2010(10):75~78. [16]. 2005(2):52~53. [17] KnightR.ExpandingpetroleumproductioninAfrica.ReviewofAfricanPoliticalEconomy200330(96):335~339. [18] AndersenA.Africanpetroleumreservesgrowth.CapeTwon:The16thAnnualAfricaOilWeek.htp://middleeas- toil.net/african%20petroleum%20reserves%20growth.pdf2009. [19]. 2009(2):32~36. [20] (1):79~81. [21]. 2004(12):14~20. [22] ElisS.Briefing:WestAfricaanditsoil.AfricanAfairs :135~138. [23] PetzetA.Africa'sreservesproductionenterperiodofsteadygrowth.OilandGasJournal (8):44~50. [24] (11):13~16.

14 [25] (3):88~82. [26] (3):16~22. [27] BahgatG.Thegeopoliticsofenergy:EuropeandNorthAfrica.TheJournalofNorth AfricanStudies (1):39~49. [28] Bradshaw MJ.Thegeopoliticsofglobalenergysecurity.GeographyCompass20093(5):1920~1937. [29]. :. : [30] (8):7~13. [31] (1):172~177. [32].Boxplot. 2003(1):34~35. [33] HoaglinDCMostelerF.. : [34] (3):297~304. [35] LeBP.OilandarmedconflictsinAfrica.AfricanGeographicalReview201029(1):63~90. [36]..htp://blog.caing.com/article.php itemid=16497&preview= [37]..htp://ng.mofcom.gov.cn/aarticle/slfw/200503/ html [38] (1):19~23. [39]. 2007(2):35~42. [40]. 2008(9):67~69. Africa'spositionshiftinworldoilsupplypatern HAO Li-shaZHAO Yuan (SchoolofGeographicalScienceNanjingNormalUniversityNanjing210046China) Abstract:Inthe21stcenturyAfricahasbeenastrategicplaceformajoroilimportersseekingto diversifyimportsinordertoachievegreateroilsecurityandalsoafricahasbeenthesecondbig- gestsourceforchinasothatanalysesofafrica'spositionshiftinworldoilsupplypaterncould helpustogetabeterunderstandingofafrica'sadvantagesanddisadvantagesintheoilsupplyin ordertooptimizechina'sstrategyforoilcooperationwithafrica.inthispaperboxplotsandspa- tialclusteranalysisareintegratedtogetherwith modifiedshareandrankanalysistoexamine andcompareafrica'spositionsandtheirshiftinthepaternsofworldoilprovedreservesoilpro- ductionreserves-to-productionratioandexports.theresultsshowthatafricaisthe most concentratedareaofoilsupplyingcountriesbesidesmiddleeastandwiththesupersessionofthe oldbythenewitsoveralsupplypositionisrelativelysteadyorevenpromoted;africa'srelative advantagesinworldoilsupplypaternareitshighreserves-to-productionratioandhighexport ratiosothatitisoneofthekeyareastoprovidesustainedgrowthofoilproductionandexportin thefuture;africahasgradualypenetratedtheworld'sheartlandofoilsupplyanditsoilgeopo- liticalimportanceisenhancedgreatly;inthelong-termperspectiveafricawilstilbeoneofthe majoroilsourcesforchinaandchinashouldpromotediversestrategiestoafricaandenterafri- ca'scoreoilmarketinordertoenlargesupplyandachieveriskdiversification. Keywords:Africa;oilsupply;positionshift;boxplots;spatialclusteranalysis;oilcooperation

3 : 451 [4] [5] [6] [7~9] [10] (NIA) 10 [11] DimitriosVarvarigos [12] Kawata [13] [14] [15] [16] (1)

3 : 451 [4] [5] [6] [7~9] [10] (NIA) 10 [11] DimitriosVarvarigos [12] Kawata [13] [14] [15] [16] (1) 31 3 20123 GEOGRAPHICAL RESEARCH Vol.31No.3 Mar.2012 12 12 (1. 430079;2. 430079) : : ; ; ; :1000-0585(2012)03-0450-11 1 (WHO) [1] [2] 1997 ( ) [3] 2005 ; :2011-07-15; :2011-12-18 : (40671050); : (1984-)