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N = δ U α U α = P (1 P ) δ 2 P (1 P ) α α α 2 n = 0.1 2 0.6 (1 0.6 ) [ Z pq + Z p q + p q ] 2 β α 1 1 0 0 n = D 2 ( p p ) 1 0 2 13
α α α α α β β β p 1 + p p 0 2 q 1 p 14
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2003 V Bremer, U Marcus, A Hofmann, O Hamouda Sex Transm Infect 2005; 81:173-179 - 34 -
; 1 Robert Koch - 35 -
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HIV ϰ - 40 -
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M. Giuliani, B. Suligoi, and the STD Surveillance Working Group Euro. Surveill. 1998, 3(6):55-58 - 43 -
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A Sasse, A Defraye, G Ducoffre Euro Surveill. 2004,9(12) - 48 -
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Jeanne Pimenta, Kevin A Fenton Euro Surveill. 2001; 6(5):81-84 - 52 -
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Kevin Fenton, Johan Giesecke, Françoise F Hamers Euro Surveill, 2001, 6(5):69-70 - 55 -
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(ESSTI) MSM HIV/STI Isabella von HolsteinKevin A. FentonCatherine Ison Euro Surveill. 2004; 8(25) - 57 -
http://www.cdc.gov/std/stats/trends2003.htm - 58 -
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< - 63 -
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2003 http://www.cdc.gov/std/stats/trends2003.htm - 65 -
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