EQUITY RESEARCH 上 汽 集 團 (600104.CH) 穩 中 有 進 態 勢 持 續 中 國 汽 車 製 造 更 新 報 告 上 汽 集 團 是 中 國 最 大 的 汽 車 製 造 商, 是 中 國 汽 車 行 業 當 之 無 愧 的 領 軍 者, 主 要 業 務 涵 蓋 了 乘 用 車 和 商 用 車, 零 部 件 的 研 發 生 產 銷 售, 同 時 還 包 括 汽 車 服 務 貿 易 以 及 汽 車 金 融 後 市 場 業 務 公 司 2015 年 總 銷 量 同 比 增 5% 至 590 萬 輛, 占 中 國 汽 車 市 場 的 份 額 接 近 四 分 之 一, 旗 下 的 上 海 大 眾, 上 汽 通 用 及 上 汽 通 用 五 菱 分 別 位 列 中 國 車 企 乘 用 車 榜 單 的 第 一, 第 二 和 第 四 其 中, 上 汽 通 用 五 菱 因 旗 下 SUV 需 求 暢 旺, 銷 量 同 比 增 長 12.9% 至 204 萬 輛, 上 汽 大 眾 和 上 汽 通 用 分 別 同 比 增 長 5% 和 微 跌 0.5%, 至 172.5 萬 輛 及 176 萬 輛 公 司 整 體 業 績 穩 中 有 進 的 趨 勢 繼 續 保 持 2015 年 公 司 實 現 歸 屬 淨 利 潤 298 億 元 人 民 幣, 同 比 增 長 6.5%, 每 股 收 益 2.7 元, 每 股 派 息 1.36 元, 業 績 較 我 們 預 估 值 低 約 6%, 不 過 分 紅 派 息 率 維 持 在 50%, 符 合 我 們 預 期 2016 年 第 一 季 度, 公 司 歸 屬 淨 利 潤 錄 得 79.36 億 元, 同 比 小 幅 增 長 6.3%, 每 股 收 益 0.72 元 上 汽 憑 藉 在 汽 車 產 業 鏈 上 較 為 完 整 的 佈 局 持 續 提 升 的 創 新 研 發 能 力, 在 新 能 源 汽 車 智 能 駕 駛 互 聯 網 汽 車 領 域, 均 位 列 國 內 廠 商 第 一 梯 隊 1 在 新 能 源 汽 車 方 面, 除 了 已 量 產 的 3 款 新 能 源 乘 用 車, 上 汽 今 年 內 還 將 推 3 款 新 能 源 車 型, 包 括 一 款 SUV 混 合 動 力 2 在 互 聯 網 汽 車 領 域, 公 司 與 阿 裏 巴 巴 合 作 的 首 款 互 聯 網 汽 車 榮 威 RX5 已 完 成 車 型 開 發, 有 望 在 今 年 年 底 前 正 式 上 市 3 在 智 能 駕 駛 方 面, 公 司 研 發 的 無 人 駕 駛 轎 車 已 經 在 廣 德 試 驗 場 順 利 完 成 路 試 公 司 在 這 些 新 領 域 的 投 入, 未 來 有 望 成 為 公 司 的 核 心 競 爭 力 同 時, 公 司 150 億 元 的 定 向 增 發 獲 批 也 會 將 為 公 司 的 創 新 轉 型 戰 略 保 駕 護 航 投 資 建 議 公 司 現 金 流 充 沛,2016 年 一 季 度, 賬 面 現 金 接 近 800 億 元, 未 分 配 利 潤 高 達 943 億, 我 們 預 計 公 司 較 高 的 現 金 分 紅 率 (50% 左 右 ) 有 望 持 續, 息 率 有 望 超 過 6.5% 我 們 調 整 公 司 盈 利 預 測 和 目 標 價 24.55 人 民 幣 元, 對 應 2016/2017 年 各 8.5/8.1 倍 預 計 市 盈 率, 維 持 評 級 買 入 ( 現 價 截 至 6 月 10 日 ) 14 JUNE 2016 買 入 ( 維 持 ) 現 價 : CNY 20.32 ( 現 價 截 至 6 月 10 日 ) 目 標 價 : CNY 24.55 (+20%) 公 司 資 料 普 通 股 股 東 ( 百 萬 股 ) : 11026 市 值 ( 人 民 幣 百 萬 元 ) : 224040 52 周 最 高 價 / 最 低 價 ( 人 民 幣 元 ) : 25.98/ 12.22 主 要 股 東 % 上 海 汽 車 工 業 ( 集 團 ) 總 公 司 72.95 躍 進 汽 車 集 團 公 司 4.48 股 價 & 上 證 指 數 Source: Phillip Securities (HK) Research 財 務 資 料 CNY mn FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E Net Sales 630001 670448 713239 755040 Net Profit 27973 29794 31689 33306 EPS, CNY 2.54 2.70 2.87 3.02 P/E, x 8.0 7.5 7.1 6.7 BVPS, CNY 14.30 15.88 17.09 18.76 P/BV, x 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.1 DPS (CNY) 1.30 1.36 1.44 1.52 Div. Yield (%) 6.4% 6.7% 7.1% 7.5% Source: Company reports, Phillip Securities Est. 研 究 分 析 員 章 晶 (+ 86 51699400-103) zhangjing@phillip.com.cn Page 1 PHILLIPCAPITAL HONGKONG RESEARCH
Monthly sales of SVW, SGM and Wuling 300000 250000 200000 150000 100000 50000 0 Source: SAIC, Phillip Securities Hong Kong Research SVW SGM Wuling Page 2 PHILLIPCAPITAL HONGKONG RESEARCH
財 務 報 告 FYE DEC FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16F FY17F Valuation Ratios P/E (X), adj. 11.1 10.8 9.1 8.0 7.5 7.1 6.7 P/B (X) 2.2 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.1 Dividend Yield (%) 1.5% 2.9% 5.9% 6.4% 6.7% 7.1% 7.5% Per share data (RMB) EPS, (Basic) 1.83 1.88 2.25 2.54 2.70 2.87 3.02 EPS, (Diluted) 1.83 1.88 2.25 2.54 2.70 2.87 3.02 DPS 0.30 0.60 1.20 1.30 1.36 1.44 1.52 BVPS 9.28 11.10 12.49 14.30 15.88 17.09 18.76 Grow th & Margins (%) Grow th Revenue 18.6% 11.6% 18.9% 12.0% 6.4% 6.4% 5.9% EBIT 26.5% -4.4% 3.0% 0.9% 7.2% 6.3% 4.8% Net Income, adj. 23.4% 2.6% 19.5% 12.8% 6.5% 6.4% 5.1% Margins Gross margin 17.0% 15.2% 12.7% 12.8% 12.6% 12.7% 12.7% EBIT margin 10.1% 8.7% 7.5% 6.7% 6.8% 6.8% 6.7% Net Profit Margin 4.8% 4.4% 4.4% 4.4% 4.4% 4.4% 4.4% Key Ratios ROE 21.3% 18.4% 19.1% 18.9% 17.9% 17.4% 16.9% Income Statement (RMB mn) Revenue 423750 473004 562368 630001 670448 713239 755040 Gross profit 71879 71867 71379 80765 84615 90367 95588 EBIT 42785 40918 42149 42524 45578 48470 50773 Profit before tax 42028 40156 41493 42689 45810 48723 51004 Tax 7039 6628 5909 4438 5736 6188 6478 Profit for the period 34990 33528 35584 38251 40074 42536 44527 Minority interests 14768 12777 10780 10277 10280 10847 11221 Total capital share 11026 11026 11026 11026 11026 11026 11026 Net profit 20222 20752 24804 27973 29794 31689 33306 Source: PSR (Financial figures as at 10 JUNE 2016) Page 3 PHILLIPCAPITAL HONGKONG RESEARCH
PHILLIP RESEARCH STOCK SELECTION SYSTEMS Total Return Recommendation Rating Remarks >+20% Buy 1 >20% upside from the current price +5% to +20% Accumulate 2 +5% to +20%upside from the current price -5% to +5% Neutral 3 Trade within ± 5% from the current price -5% to -20% Reduce 4-5% to -20% downside from the current price <-20% Sell 5 >20%downside from the current price We do not base our recommendations entirely on the above quantitative return bands. We consider qualitative factors like (but not limited to) a stock's risk reward profile, market sentiment, recent rate of share price appreciation, presence or absence of stock price catalysts, and speculative undertones surrounding the stock, before making our final recommendation GENERAL DISCLAIMER This publication is prepared by Phillip Securities (Hong Kong) Ltd ( Phillip Securities ). By receiving or reading this publication, you agree to be bound by the terms and limitations set out below. This publication shall not be reproduced in whole or in part, distributed or published by you for any purpose. Phillip Securities shall not be liable for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of material contained in this publication. The information contained in this publication has been obtained from public sources which Phillip Securities has no reason to believe are unreliable and any analysis, forecasts, projections, expectations and opinions (collectively the Research ) contained in this publication are based on such information and are expressions of belief only. Phillip Securities has not verified this information and no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made that such information or Research is accurate, complete or verified or should be relied upon as such. Any such information or Research contained in this publication is subject to change, and Phillip Securities shall not have any responsibility to maintain the information or Research made available or to supply any corrections, updates or releases in connection therewith. In no event will Phillip Securities be liable for any special, indirect, incidental or consequential damages which may be incurred from the use of the information or Research made available, even if it has been advised of the possibility of such damages. Any opinions, forecasts, assumptions, estimates, valuations and prices contained in this material are as of the date indicated and are subject to change at any time without prior notice. This material is intended for general circulation only and does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. The products mentioned in this material may not be suitable for all investors and a person receiving or reading this material should seek advice from a financial adviser regarding the suitability of such products, taking into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of that person, before making a commitment to invest in any of such products. This publication should not be relied upon as authoritative without further being subject to the recipient s own independent verification and exercise of judgment. The fact that this publication has been made available constitutes neither a recommendation to enter into a particular transaction nor a representation that any product described in this material is suitable or appropriate for the recipient. Recipients should be aware that many of the products which may be described in this publication involve significant risks and may not be suitable for all investors, and that any decision to enter into transactions involving such products should not be made unless all such risks are understood and an independent determination has been made that such transactions would be appropriate. Any discussion of the risks contained herein with respect to any product should not be considered to be a disclosure of all risks or a complete discussion of such risks. Nothing in this report shall be construed to be an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of a security. Any decision to purchase securities mentioned in this research should take into account existing public information, including any registered prospectus in respect of such security. Disclosure of Interest Analyst Disclosure: Neither the analyst(s) preparing this report nor his associate has any financial interest in or serves as an officer of the listed corporation covered in this report. Firm s Disclosure: Phillip Securities does not have any investment banking relationship with the listed corporation covered in this report nor any financial interest of 1% or more of the market capitalization in the listed corporation. In addition, no executive staff of Phillip Securities serves as an officer of the listed corporation. Availability The information, tools and material presented herein are not directed, intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity in any jurisdiction or country where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to the applicable law or regulation or which would subject Phillip Securities to any registration or licensing or other requirement, or penalty for contravention of such requirements within such jurisdiction. Information contained herein is based on sources that Phillip Securities (Hong Kong) Limited ( PSHK ) believed to be accurate. PSHK does not bear responsibility for any loss occasioned by reliance placed upon the contents hereof. PSHK (or its affiliates or employees) may have positions in relevant investment products. For details of different product's risks, please visit the Risk Disclosures Statement on http://www.phillip.com.hk. 2016 Phillip Securities (Hong Kong) Limited Page 4 PHILLIPCAPITAL HONGKONG RESEARCH
COMPANY NAME INITIATING COVERAGE Contact Information (Regional Member Companies) SINGAPORE Phillip Securities Pte Ltd 250 North Bridge Road, #06-00 Raffles City Tower, Singapore 179101 Tel : (65) 6533 6001 Fax: (65) 6535 3834 www.phillip.com.sg INDONESIA PT Phillip Securities Indonesia ANZ Tower Level 23B, Jl Jend Sudirman Kav 33A, Jakarta 10220, Indonesia Tel (62) 21 5790 0800 Fax: (62) 21 5790 0809 www.phillip.co.id THAILAND Phillip Securities (Thailand) Public Co. Ltd. 15th Floor, Vorawat Building, 849 Silom Road, Silom, Bangrak, Bangkok 10500 Thailand Tel (66) 2 2268 0999 Fax: (66) 2 2268 0921 www.phillip.co.th UNITED STATES Phillip Futures Inc. 141 W Jackson Blvd Ste 3050 The Chicago Board of Trade Building Chicago, IL 60604 USA Tel (1) 312 356 9000 Fax: (1) 312 356 9005 MALAYSIA Phillip Capital Management Sdn Bhd B-3-6 Block B Level 3, Megan Avenue II, No. 12, Jalan Yap Kwan Seng, 50450 Kuala Lumpur Tel (60) 3 2162 8841 Fax (60) 3 2166 5099 www.poems.com.my CHINA Phillip Financial Advisory (Shanghai) Co. Ltd. No 436 Heng Feng Road, Green Tech Tower Unit 604 Shanghai 200 070 Tel (86) 21 5169 9400 Fax: (86) 21 6091 1155 www.phillip.com.cn FRANCE King & Shaxson Capital Ltd. 3rd Floor, 35 Rue de la Bienfaisance 75008 Paris France Tel (33) 1 4563 3100 Fax : (33) 1 4563 6017 www.kingandshaxson.com AUSTRALIA PhillipCapital Australia Level 12, 15 William Street, Melbourne, Victoria 3000, Australia Tel: (61) 3 9618 8238 Fax: (61) 3 9200 2277 www.phillipcapital.com.au HONG KONG Phillip Securities (HK) Ltd 11/F United Centre 95 Queensway Hong Kong Tel (852) 2277 6600 Fax: (852) 2868 5307 www.phillip.com.hk JAPAN Phillip Securities Japan, Ltd 4-2 Nihonbashi Kabutocho, Chuo-ku Tokyo 103-0026 Tel: (81) 3 3666 2101 Fax: (81) 3 3664 0141 www.phillip.co.jp INDIA PhillipCapital (India) Private Limited No. 1, 18th Floor, Urmi Estate, 95 Ganpatrao Kadam Marg, Lower Parel West, Mumbai 400013 Tel: (9122) 2300 2999 Fax: (9122) 6667 9955 www.phillipcapital.in UNITED KINGDOM King & Shaxson Ltd. 6th Floor, Candlewick House, 120 Cannon Street London, EC4N 6AS Tel (44) 20 7929 5300 Fax: (44) 20 7283 6835 www.kingandshaxson.com SRI LANKA Asha Phillip Securities Limited Level 4, Millennium House, 46/58 Navam Mawatha, Colombo 2, Sri Lanka Tel: (94) 11 2429 100 Fax: (94) 11 2429 199 www.ashaphillip.net/home.htm Page 5 PHILLIPCAPITAL HONGKONG RESEARCH