30 2 Vol. 30, No. 2 2010 4 SC IENTIA METEOROLOGICA SIN ICA Ap r., 2010,,.., 2010, 30 (2) : 1432150. Zhi Xiefei, Gao J ie, Zhang Xiaoling. An app lication of the Dopp ler radar data in the nowcasting using mesoscale model. Scientia Meteorologic Sinica, 2010, 30 (2) : 1432150. 1 1 2 (1, 210044) (2, 100081) Lev2 9 ARPS( the Advanced Regional Prediction System), 2007 7 18,,,, sp in2up,,,,,,,, ARPS P41512 A An application of the Doppler radar data in the nowcasting using mesoscale model Zh i X iefe i 1 Gao J ie 1 Zhang X iaoling 2 ( 1 Key Laboratory of M eteorological D isaster of M inistry of Education, NU IST, N anjing 210044, China) ( 2 N ational M eteorological Center, B eijing 100081, China) Abstract In order to test the effect of the Dopp ler radar data on the mesoscale model forecasting, a heavy rain event occurred on 18 July 2007 has been studied by app lying the new generation Dopp ler raw radar data in China which contains 9 levels reflectivity and radial velocities in the ARPS ( the Advanced Regional Prediction System) model. The results show that the initialization of both radar reflectivity and radial w ind may significantly imp rove short2term quantitative p recip itation forecasting by using m esoscale model. It was found that the radar radial w ind adjustment may cause the small2 and m edium scale charac2 teristics in the initial field and reduce the model sp in2up time. A s integral goes on, vapor adjustment has also an influence on the p recip itation forecasting, but less significantly compared w ith the w ind adjust2 m ent. Radar reflectivity m ainly imp roves the hum idity parameter and increases the cloud water content in the initial field. A s integral begins it leads to a considerable w ind adjustm ent. In this study, the distribu2 tion of radar echoes and water vapor centers have been p redicted noticeably in the control run. The distri2 bution of the forecasted p recip itation is sim ilar to that of the observations, but p redicted radar echo inten2 sity and correspondingly p recip itation in the mesoscale model seemed to be larger. Key words ARPS model Radar radial velocity Radar reflectivity : 2009203226; : 2009204207 : (2720), (40505010) : (19652),,,,. zhi@ nuist. edu. cn
144 30, [ 1-3 ],,,, 2007 7 18 1h, 151 mm, 50 a,,,,, Xue [ 4 ] ARPS, W SR2 7 18 (09 12, 98D,, ) 1 h ( 1), sp in2up, 10 Zhang [ 5 ] 2,,, Rogers [ 6 ] 60 mm /h 11, 6 Gao [ 728 ] ARPS23DVAR,, 60 mm /h,, 60 mm /h,, [ 9 ], 50 mm /h,, 30 mm /h,, 20 mm /h 12,, [ 16 ],,, ARPS,, 2007 7 18, 1,, sp in2up [ 10215 ], 50 mm /h 1 09 12 1 h ( 10mm), (3617 N, 11710 E), ( a) 09 10 ; ( b) 10 11 ; ( c) 11 12 Fig. 1 The distribution of the hourly p recip itation ( unit: mm) during the period 09: 00 12: 00 UTC July 18, 2007 taken from AW S in Shandong p rovince, where the station Jinan is depicted as a black triangle. The contour interval is 10 mm. ( a) 09: 00 10: 00 UTC; ( b) 10: 00 11: 00 UTC; ( c) 11: 00 12: 00 UTC
2, : 145 2 3 2. 1 ARPS ARPS (Advanced Regional Prediction System) A rakawa2c [ 17 ], [ 18 ] Hu [ 19220 ], ARPS, (ADAS), 3DVAR ARPS23DVAR, ARPS,, 2. 2 10 km 3 km, (3617 N, 11710 E), 32, 650 m, 6 s, 1 km Kain2Fritsch,, 6 h NCEP 1 1 GR IB, 06 15, 09 12, 09 C INRAD2SA ARPS, ARPS23DVAR,, 3 h ; : : ; : :,, 311 (09 ), ( 2) ( 2a) ( 2c),,,, ( 2d) ( 2b), 1 h, ( 3a), 15 km, 150 mm /h,, 50 mm /h,,, ( 3b) ( 3c), 100 mm /h, 25 mm /h ( 3d ), 150 mm /h,,,,,,,,,,,, 40 km, 2 h, ( 4a),, 100 mm /h ( 4b), ( 4c), 50 mm /h ( 4d),
146 30 2 3 km 7 18 09 ( : mm) ( a) ; ( b) ; ( c) ; ( d) Fig. 2 The distribution of the simulated precipitation (unit: mm) and surface wind fields during the period 09: 00 UTC July 18, 2007 with a resolution of 3 km, where the station Jinan is depicted as a black triangle. (a) control run; (b) experiment I; (c) experiment II; (d) experiment III 3 7 18 09 10 1h ( :mm) (a) ; (b) ; (c) ; (d) Fig. 3 Same as Fig. 2, excep t for the period 09: 00 10: 00 UTC July 18, 2007 ( a) control run; ( b) experiment I; ( c) experiment II; ( d) experiment III
2, : 147 45 km,, 100 mm /h, 150 mm /h,,,, 312,, 5, 3 h ( ),,,,, 46 dbz,,,,,,,,, NCEP 1 h ( 6 ),,,,,,, 60 dbz,,,,,,,,,,, 59 dbz 4 7 18 10 11 1 h ( : mm) ( a) ; ( b) ; ( c) ; ( d) Fig. 4 Same as Fig. 2, excep t for the period 10: 00 11: 00 UTC July 18, 2007 ( a) control run; ( b) experiment I; ( c) experiment II; ( d) experiment III
148 30 5 3 km 7 18 09 1 500 m ( : dbz) ( a) ; ( b) ; ( c) ; ( d) Fig. 5 The distribution of the simulated radar echoes at the altitude of 1500m ( unit: dbz) at 09: 00 UTC July 18, 2007 with a resolution of 3 km, where rep resents the station Jinan. ( a) control run; ( b) experiment I; ( c) experiment II; ( d) experiment III 6 7 18 10 1 500 m ( : dbz) Fig. 6 Same as Fig. 5, excep t for 10: 00 UTC July 18, 2007 ( a) control run; ( b) experiment I; ( c) experiment II; ( d) experiment III
2, : 149 7 7 18 11 1 500 m ( : dbz) Fig. 7 Same as Fig. 5, excep t for 11: 00 UTC July 18, 2007 ( a) control run; ( b) experiment I; ( c) experiment II; ( d) experiment III,, 25 dbz 2 h ( 7),,, 60 dbz,,,, 25 dbz,, 30 km, 40 dbz, 3 h ( ),, 50 dbz,,, 58 dbz,,, 3h,,, 4 ARPS 3DVAR,, 2007 718, : (1) (2),, sp in2up,,, (3),,,,,,,,
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