中国及亚洲酒店数据权威发布 Hotel Performance in China and Asia 中国酒店业依旧是捷报频传? Still good news for China performance? 叶朋勤 Jesper Palmqvist 刘博 Christine Liu 2016 年 5 月 18 日 18 May 2016 apinfo@strglobal.com 2016 STR, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
旅游 travel 投资 investment 业绩 performance 2016 STR, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
越来越多的市场呈现积极增长 Growth markets 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 2016 年 3 月,12 个月均线每间可售房收入 ( 当地货币 ) RevPAR growth (LC, %), Rolling 12m up until Mar 2016 French Polynesia Q1: +26.4% 0 Japan New Zealand Vietnam Thailand Sri Lanka India Australia Philippines China (Mainland) 2016 STR, Inc. All Rights Reserved. www.strglobal.com
但也有市场表现得不尽人意 Declining markets 0 2016 年 3 月,12 个月均线每间可售房收入 ( 当地货币 ) RevPAR growth (LC, %), Rolling 12m up until Mar 2016 Malaysia Singapore Indonesia Maldives South Korea Myanmar -5-10 -15-20 -25 2016 STR, Inc. All Rights Reserved. www.strglobal.com
Millions 中国内地入境游客人数 Int l Arrivals to Mainland China 136 135 Perspective! 约 1 亿 800 万人次来自香港, 澳门和台湾 ~108 million is Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan 134 133 132 131 130 129 128 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 STR, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Source: PATA, National Tourist Organizations
Millions 中国内地入境游客人数 Int l Arrivals to Mainland China 5 4 +6.3% 3-8.1% +26.4% -0.4% 2 1-22.7% -4.8% - South Korea Japan Vietnam USA Russia Malaysia 2016 STR, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Source: PATA, National Tourist Organizations
2015 年中国内地表现盘点 Mainland China 2015 Highlights 2015 年, 人民币 YE 2015, CNY +0.4% RevPAR growth year-over-year
中国内地供需趋势变化 Mainland China Demand & Supply 2012 年至 2016 年 3 月,12 个月均线同比变化率 12MMA, 2012-Mar 2016, %Change 15% 供给 Supply 需求 Demand 每间可售房收入 RevPAR 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
2015 年多数城市业绩优异 2015 was mostly positive 2015 全年, 每间可售房收入同比变化率 - RevPAR % Change, 2015 FY, CNY
少数城市业绩走低 Fewer cities declined 2015 全年, 每间可售房收入同比变化率 - RevPAR % Change, 2015 FY, CNY
一二线城市入住率 Hotel Occ % 1 st and 2 nd tier cities 2008 年至 2016 年 3 月,12 个月均线同比变化率, 人民币 12MMA, Jan 2008 - Mar 2016, CNY 一线城市 1st Tier Cities 二线城市 2nd Tier Cities 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
一二线城市平均房价 Hotel ADR 1 st and 2 nd tier cities 2008 年至 2016 年 3 月,12 个月均线同比变化率, 人民币 12MMA, Jan 2008 - Mar 2016, CNY 一线城市 1st Tier Cities 二线城市 2nd Tier Cities 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
猴年真的是酒店业的大吉吗? Will the Monkey bring us fortune?
2016 Q1 RevPAR growth year-over-year 第一季度 RevPAR 变化率 Mainland China
是什么带动了内地酒店业绩的增长? Mainland China - What s driving growth? +3.5% Supply +7.1% Demand +3.4% Occupancy +2.6% RevPAR +6.2% Market Revenue -0.8% ADR Mar 2016 YTD, Main KPIs YoY, % Change, CNY - 2016 第一季度, 同比变化率, 人民币
每间可售房收入增长对比 RevPAR growth comparison 2016 Q1 12 mts rolling 1 st 一线城市 +6.0% -4.2% 2 nd 二线城市 +0.4% 0.0%
2016 年第一季度所带来的新改变 2016 Q1 brought few changes from 2015 大城市的增长 Big city growth B I G 4 上海 Shanghai 北京 Beijing 深圳 Shenzhen 广州 Guangzhou +5-7% +1.9% 2016 年第一季度, 每间可售房收入同比变化率 RevPAR % Change, 2016 Q1, CNY
2016 年第一季度所带来的新改变 2016 Q1 brought few changes from 2015 持续增长 still growing 杭州 Hangzhou 苏州 Suzhou 大连 Dalian 武汉 Wuhan 持续下降 still declining 青岛 Qingdao 成都 Chengdu 业绩回升 comeback 西安 Xi an 天津 Tianjin 业绩下滑 now declining 沈阳 Shenyang 三亚 Sanya
上海业绩持续走高 Shanghai keeps growing 12 个月均线变化率, 人民币 12MMA, CNY 60% 45% 30% 15% 0% -15% 金融危机 GFC 世博会 EXPO 连续 26 个月增长 26 months of growth -30% -45% 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2016 STR, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
新增供给 Pipeline 2016 STR, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
中国主要城市未来新增供给 Major Cities Pipeline 截至 2016 年 4 月, 以客房数 ( 千间 ) 统计 as of April 2016, by room count ( 000) Beijing +4% Shanghai +10% Guangzhou +5% Hangzhou +14% Shenzhen +7% 现有供给 Existing 新增供给 Pipeline
仍然有些城市面临新增供给压力 But some cities still adding a LOT of rooms 截至 2016 年 4 月, 在现有供给基础上增加 % as of April 2016, % of new rooms over existing in market Sanya Changsha Chengdu Tianjin 56% 36% 28% 26%
目前而言 依旧是捷报频传? So mostly good news?
谢谢 Thank You apinfo@strglobal.com www.strglobal.com Any reprint, use or republication of all or a part of this presentation without the prior written approval of STR, Inc. or STR Global, Ltd. trading as STR (collectively STR ) is strictly prohibited. Any such reproduction shall specifically credit STR as the source. This presentation is based on data collected by STR. No strategic advice or marketing recommendation is intended or implied. 2016 STR, Inc. All Rights Reserved.