~ % ~ % % %

论坛 陈 沫 100007 94

1 2001 ~ 2011 24. 4% 2. 28 4. 45 1 1 2001 ~ 2011 2011 2012 4 9 1990 292 2010 2. 393 2011 2. 538 1 2 2011 56. 7% 2011 2020 67% 2030 70% 2 1 2 2011 2012 4 11 http / /news. jinti. com /caijingupiao /1442929. htm 2012-10 - 08. 95

2012 6 2 2001 ~ 2011 2011 2012 4 12 2011 1. 3 51. 2% 3 3 2011 2006 ~ 2011 2012 3 60 ~ 61 96

1. 中东剧变及其溢出效应危及石油供应安全 2010 2011 160 2% 120 1 2011 3 9 2010 737 2011 259 64. 8% 2 4 1 2 http / /news. china. com. cn /rollnews /2011-08 /24 /content_ 9743236. htm 2012-09 - 30. 2012 3 60 97

2012 6 4 2008 ~ 2011 2011 270 10% 1 2011 2011 1 Vali Nasr When the Shiites Rise Foreign Affairs July /August 2006 p. 58. 98

2. 地区局势变化对石油供应安全的潜在影响 80% 1 /3 2003 99

2012 6 2013 240 / 80% 2003 1990 2011 100

2012 2012 1 8 3. 美国因素的影响 2002 22. 9% 2011 17. 1% 54. 45% 1 1991 1 BP BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2012 p. 18. 101

2012 6 1. 中东地区能源资源禀赋优越 1945 46. 4% 1975 63. 9% 2010 59. 1% 2011 2 343 1 082 48. 1% 1 1991 2001 2011 2011 12. 32 23. 01 21. 75 41. 7 7. 46 9. 88 32. 47 > 100 7. 68 9. 88 32. 47 22. 3 66. 08 69. 87 79. 50 78. 7 6. 04 9. 68 13. 24 41. 2 3. 70 4. 05 4. 13 14. 0 10 327 126. 74 165. 26 54. 2 Source BP BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2011 p. 6. 102

2011 78. 7 54. 2 1 2011 80 38. 4% 100 2 1991 2001 2011 2011 9. 5 7. 7 10. 8 12. 5 5. 3 7. 0 7. 6 45. 2 54. 9 56. 8 68. 0 75. 9 42. 7 70. 9 80. 0 > 100 9. 5 13. 1 14. 5 71. 7 9. 3 13. 1 16. 8 35. 0 131. 2 168. 5 208. 4 63. 6 Source BP BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2011 p. 20. 2. 中东地区石油增产潜力大 1945 7. 78% 1975 37. 36% 1 /3 2011 13. 01 2 769 32. 6% 2 1 2 BP BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2011 p. 6. Ibid. p. 10. 103

2012 6 5 2001 ~ 2011 Source BP BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2011 p. 8. 20 90 1990 115. 36 2000 7 000 60 1 1990 22 2011 11. 8 1 104 2011 8 25

2011 39 1. 8% 10 0. 4% 10 2011 1. 1% 0. 1% 1 6 2005 ~ 2011 2006 ~ 2011 2012 3 60 ~ 61 2011 32 11 2 27. 1% 2 20 90 1 2 BP BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2012 pp. 6 10. Ibid. p. 28. 105

2012 6 2002 21. 13% 2011 1 1 Vali Nasr op. cit.. 106

2011 1. 75 78. 9% 1. 1 62. 2% 1 1 BP BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2012 p. 18. 107

2012 6 2006 1 12 1 2012 5 2 1 2 http / /www. sgst. cn /xwdt /shsd /200705 /t20070518_ 93767. html 2012-10 - 03. http / /news. ccvic. com /guoneixw /szyw /2012 /0513 /195220. shtml 2012-10 - 03. 108

1. 非洲石油在国际石油市场中崛起 443 3. 3% 372 2. 8% 135 1. 0% 122 0. 9% 67 0. 5% 1 2000 ~ 2011 780. 4 880. 4 2011 10. 4% 2011 2 245. 7 174. 6 172. 9 73. 5 47. 9 2 7 Source BP BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2011 p. 8. 1 2 BP BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2012 p. 6. Ibid. p. 8. 109

2012 6 2011 8 670 15. 5% 1. 07 18% 6 120 18. 7% 1 2011 14. 5 2 027 7. 0% 6. 2% 2 2. 中国进口非洲油气具有重要的安全价值 1990 ~ 2000 3 000 1 /3 1 /3 1 /10 1 2 BP BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2012 p. 18. Ibid. pp. 20 22. 110

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2012 6 New Thoughts on China s Energy Security Chen Mo Abstract Upheaval in the Middle East and world energy structure challenged China s traditional concept of energy security. By reexamining the importance of the Middle East energy it is obvious that China s energy market still depends on the supply of energy from the Middle East. Now the energy cooperation between China and countries in the Middle East faces challenges. Therefore despite from maintaining and developing further energy cooperation with countries in the Middle East several other things need to be taken into consideration in order to maintain China s energy stability. Among these are considering Japan Korea and India s energy interest in the Middle East fostering energy cooperation with African countries and diversifying energy supply. Key Words Energy Security Oil Supply The Middle East Upheaval Africa 112