2014 9 12 20140417 S1060513090002 RAV4 021-38638123 Fanglei593@pingan.com.cn (2009.3.25) RAV4 (2009.3.25) 燕翔 S1060514050001 021-38631130 Shenshaojie196@pingan.com.cn
E=MC2 1... 11 2 IC... 15 3... 17 4... 20 5... 23 2 / 31
1 A... 6 2 A... 7 3 TMT... 7 4 5 TMT 20... 8 5 5 8 4 66%... 9 6 E=MC2 5 TMT... 10 7 TMT E=MC2... 10 8... 11 9 2010-2017... 12 10 2010-2017... 12 11 2010-2017... 13 12... 14 13... 14 14 2010-2015 IC... 15 15 EMV IC... 15 16 IC... 16 17... 16 18... 16 19 6... 17 20 2008-2013... 18 21 2008-2013... 18 22 2013Q3... 19 23... 19 24... 19 25 2011-2017... 20 26 2013... 20 27 2014... 21 28... 21 29 2013 2014... 22 3 / 31
30... 23 31... 23 32... 24 33... 24 34... 25 35... 25 36 2012-2016... 26 37... 26 38 Apple Watch Google Glass Gear2... 27 39... 27 40 Google... 27 41 A/H... 28 42 2011-2013 A/H... 29 43 2011-2013 A/H... 29 44 TMT... 29 4 / 31
2014 9 4 ( ) 568 180 380 ST 2014 8 31 90% 263 2014 8 31 81% () 5 / 31
1A 2 A A A 1 A WIND 6 / 31
2 A WIND 3 TMT Wind 7 / 31
4 5TMT20 WIND 8 / 31
5 58466% WIND E=MC2 TMTE=MC2 1TMTTMT E=MC2Efficiency MobilityCommunicationCloud Computing IC 9 / 31
6 E=MC25TMT 7 TMTE=MC2 10 / 31
8 A E=MC2 1 11 / 31
9 2010-2017 60 100% 50 90% 80% 40 70% 60% 30 50% 20 40% 30% 10 20% 10% 0 2010A 2011A 2012A 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 0% iresearch 10 2010-2017 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 1.20% 1% 1.20% 7.10% 12.60% 20% 16.80% 20.50% 26.30% 22.70% 29.50% 31.20% 31.90% 33.30% 34.30% 35.10% 76.90% 71.10% 67.60% 59.90% 53.60% 48.10% 43.60% 40.60% 2010A 2011A 2012A 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E iresearch 12 / 31
11 2010-2017 120,000 119439.2 100,000 80,000 84576.7 60,000 52570.6 40,000 20,000 0 29412.4 12197.4 586.1 798.7 1511.4 2010A 2011A 2012A 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E iresearch 13 / 31
12 13 1 2 3 14 / 31
2 IC 14 2010-2015IC 100,000 700% 90,000 80,000 600% 70,000 500% 60,000 400% 50,000 40,000 300% 30,000 200% 20,000 10,000 100% 0 2010A 2011A 2012A 2013A 2014E 2015E 0% 15 EMVIC iresearch 15 / 31
16 IC iresearch 17 18 16 / 31
19 6 3 17 / 31
20 2008-2013 3,500 35% 3,000 30% 2,500 25% 2,000 20% 1,500 15% 1,000 10% 500 5% 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 0% 21 2008-2013 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 0% 18 / 31
22 2013Q3 2013Q3 59.70% 15.00% 6.80% 6.50% 6.30% 500 5.70% 23 时间类型中标企业 2005 体彩 2013 体彩 金帆 深圳思乐 深圳穗彩 广州乐得瑞 北京英特达 北京高腾深圳穗彩 广州乐得瑞 北京英特达 北京高腾 广州洛图 青岛海信 希腊因特洛拉 - 福彩深圳思乐 深圳穗彩 广州三环永新 24 时间 收购方 被收购方 备注 御泰中彩以 2.27 亿元购入内地彩票系统及 2006 御泰中彩深圳思乐 金帆技术 彩票机供应商深圳思乐 50.9% 的股权 ( 后在 2007 年逐步完成收购 ), 又以 2900 万元收购金帆技术有限公司 100% 的股权 2007 华彩控股 广州洛图 广州三环永新 华彩控股收购了两家公司各 90% 的股权 2008 御泰中彩广州乐得瑞御泰中彩收购了该公司 90% 的股权 2010 亚博科技北京高腾 亚博科技间接收购了高腾 35% 的股权, 后在 2011 年完成对余下 65% 股权的收购 19 / 31
2012 中体产业北京英特达 中体产业以 9000 万元收购了北京英特达 45% 的股权 4 25 2011-2017 ( 400 350 300 250 18.6 9.9 5 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 200 150 100 50 0 30.7 362.5 321.8 265.6 44.6 178.5 49.5 59.1 91.9 8.1 19.5 2011A 2012A 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 iresearch 26 2013 20.60% 4.30% 4.90% 6.00% 12.10% 22.50% 29.60% RPG 20 / 31
iresearch 27 2014 18.9% 81.1% IDC 28 40%/50% 20%/30% 20%/30% iresearch 21 / 31
29 20132014 22 / 31
5 30 3.20% 7.00% 7.50% 8.10% 11.40% 62.80% Strategy Analytics 31 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.4 2013H1 1.5 2013H2 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.2 2013H1 1.6 2013H2 Strategy Analytics 23 / 31
32 Strategy Analytics 33 59.50% 57.10% 42.90% 33.30% 31.00% 27.20% 26.20% 21.40% 16.60% 14.30% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 24 / 31
34 35 25 / 31
36 2012-2016 25 120% 20 99.20% 100% 15 10 5 0 23.7 48.80% 42.90% 33.30% 11.9 8.0 5.6 4.2 2012A 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 37 26 / 31
38 Apple WatchGoogle GlassGear2 39 40 Google 27 / 31
1 2 A/H TMT A/H TMT H A TMT 4 H A 41 A/H Wind A/H A/H 28 / 31
A H H H A 42 2011-2013A/HHA 50% 2011 2012 2013 50% 2011 2012 2013 40% 40% 30% 30% 20% 20% 10% 10% 0% -10% 0% -10% -20% Wind 43 2011-2013A/HHA 2011 2012 2013 2011 2012 2013 500% 400% 150% 100% 50% 300% 200% 0% -50% -100% 100% -150% -200% 0% -100% -250% -300% -350% Wind 44 TMT 29 / 31
Wind 30 / 31
6 300 20% 6 300 10% 20% 6 300 10% 6 300 10% 6 300 5% 6 300 5% 6 300 5% 2014 [DOCID]201409110002 [/DOCID]