EPS

2010 02 01 002262.SZ ()21.00 ()0.00 A() 66.74 () 3,780.00 () 23.03/11.57 300 3204.16 5665.33 31.57 26.57 21.57 16.57 11.57 090202 090424 1, 2009.10.29 2, 2009.9.23 : (8621)61038218 huangting@gjzq.com.cn : (8621)61038219 lijingl@gjzq.com.cn (8621)61038315 lilj@gjzq.com.cn 090720 200 091016 100107 969 15A 200011 0 300 150 100 50 2006 2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E () 0.266 0.296 0.339 0.327 0.458 0.599 0.95% 56.95% 52.69% 44.84% 39.86% 30.78% () 0.327 0.458 0.599 EPS () N/A N/A N/A 0.339 0.454 0.657 () N/A N/A 48.53 61.07 43.67 33.39 () 31.75 68.42 36.07 39.66 39.66 39.66 () 25.86 45.72 15.55 20.60 20.60 20.60 N/A N/A 0.61% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% PE/G() N/A N/A 0.92 1.36 1.10 1.08 14.69% 18.32% 12.08% 14.89% 17.23% 18.39% () 1.81 1.62 2.81 2.20 2.66 3.26 () N/A N/A 5.86 9.09 7.52 6.14 () 0.48 0.54 0.39 0.46 0.63 0.78 A() N/A N/A 30.00 30.00 30.00 30.00 () 63.90 90.00 120.00 180.00 180.00 180.00 EPS 2009 11 13 2008 2009 2010 10 1-2 10 2 此文档仅供大成基金管理有限公司刘明 2 使用 1

1.1 2005 200920102011 EPS 0.327 0.458 0.599 2010 43 30 300 7 70 5 35... 4... 4... 6... 10... 11... 11... 11... 12... 12... 12... 14 1... 4 2... 4 3... 5 4... 5 2

5... 6 6 80%... 7 7... 8 8... 8 9... 8 10... 9 11... 10 12... 11 13... 12 14 5 5 5... 13 3

2009 5 19 1959 1972 100% 2008 1 2 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 2000 2003 2004 2005 1000 10 2003 4

3 / 19 1 2-3 1960 100 4.2 1974 1000 2.5 1996 134 9.5 1-2 1 80% 4 30000 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 5

5 20 80 1989 100 3.3 6

90 90% 07 10 20% 80% 6 80% 82.00% 76506 60% 49.20% 45904 13% 10.66 % 9 946 10% 8.20% 7651 17% 13.94% 13006 8.33% 7774 88.40% 7.37% 6872 11.60% 0.97% 902 7.10% 6627 79.90% 2.32% 2160 20.10% 0.58% 543 10.00% 9330 100.00% 93300 30%-50% 1300 / 100 / 2007 85% 10 7

7 8, 82.00% 80% 9 70000 60000 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 8

10 9

11 1.1 2005 2 24.7% 6.1% 700 200 2009 140 4- β α αβ ACEI AT1 II III 75% 5 10

2010 2011 2012 -- 180160 12 2007 2012 3.4 3500 260 5000 1000-2000 50% 11

2009 2010 2011 EPS 0.327 0.458 0.599 2010 43 30 300 7 70 5 35 13 2007 2008 2009E 2010E 14347.32 17878.40 22424.89 28234.07 35.44% 24.61% 25.43% 25.91% 88.34% 83.70% 84.36% 84.14% 11148.00 15557.80 19750.23 25290.37 23.28% 39.56% 26.95% 28.05% 79.57% 78.91% 79.53% 80.10% 1801.93 2360.95 3230.09 4330.09-17.27% 31.02% 36.81% 34.05% 84.78% 76.64% 76.00% 76.00% 27297.25 35797.15 45405.22 57854.53 25.13% 31.14% 26.84% 27.42% 84.52% 81.15% 81.67% 81.77% 12

14 5 5 5 13

2006 2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E 2006 2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E 696 805 952 1,106 1,274 1,458 91 126 226 168 477 707 15.7% 18.3% 16.1% 15.2% 14.5% 125 171 171 205 237 271-470 -509-592 -665-731 -803 77 83 95 95 104 114 % 67.5% 63.2% 62.1% 60.1% 57.4% 55.0% 29 11 22 29 31 34 226 296 361 441 543 656 323 391 514 497 849 1,127 % 32.5% 36.8% 37.9% 39.9% 42.6% 45.0% % 64.0% 65.5% 70.5% 64.8% 72.9% 76.1% -5-6 -8-9 -11-12 0 0 25 26 25 25 % 0.7% 0.7% 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 138 159 149 195 233 263-133 -170-216 -265-328 -397 % 27.3% 26.7% 20.4% 25.4% 20.0% 17.8% % 19.1% 21.1% 22.6% 24.0% 25.7% 27.2% 38 41 38 47 55 64-64 -73-75 -82-92 -102 181 206 215 270 315 353 % 9.2% 9.1% 7.9% 7.4% 7.2% 7.0% % 36.0% 34.5% 29.5% 35.2% 27.1% 23.9% EBIT 25 47 62 84 112 145 504 597 729 767 1,164 1,480 % 3.5% 5.8% 6.5% 7.6% 8.8% 9.9% 160 170 139 94 380 761-9 -10-11 -11-10 -10 168 237 228 254 282 308 % 1.4% 1.3% 1.2% 1.0% 0.8% 0.7% 49 33 19 16 19 21 1-3 -4-4 -5-6 377 440 385 365 681 1,090 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 4 0 0 0 0-1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 % n.a 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 382 444 386 365 681 1,090 16 34 48 69 97 129 116 145 337 396 478 586 2.3% 4.2% 5.0% 6.3% 7.6% 8.8% 7 7 7 6 5 4 2 5 2 2 2 2 504 597 729 767 1,164 1,480 18 39 50 71 99 130 2.6% 4.9% 5.2% 6.5% 7.8% 8.9% -3-13 -10-14 -18-24 2006 2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E 16.4% 32.7% 19.7% 18.9% 18.0% 18.1% 15 26 40 58 81 107 0.266 0.296 0.339 0.327 0.458 0.599-2 0-1 -1-1 -1 1.809 1.616 2.808 2.200 2.658 3.257 17 27 41 59 82 108 0.485 0.539 0.388 0.464 0.625 0.783 2.4% 3.3% 4.3% 5.3% 6.5% 7.4% 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 14.69% 18.32% 12.08% 14.89% 17.23% 18.39% 2006 2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E 3.37% 4.47% 5.58% 7.69% 7.08% 6.42% 15 26 40 58 81 107 7.20% 9.69% 10.36% 13.79% 10.68% 8.76% 0 0 0 0 0 0 13 20 23 26 34 42 8.92% 15.66% 18.35% 16.10% 15.22% 14.46% 11 12 17 16 11 12 EBIT -13.84% 90.61% 32.21% 35.54% 33.28% 28.58% -8-10 -33-16 -13-19 0.95% 56.95% 52.69% 44.84% 39.86% 30.78% 31 49 47 84 113 141 4.44% 18.34% 22.22% 5.13% 51.81% 27.15% -36-42 -37-81 -77-79 -1 0 0-1 0 0 56.7 56.0 56.1 60.0 60.0 60.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 56.1 57.5 54.9 52.0 52.0 52.0-36 -42-37 -82-77 -79 79.7 75.4 63.0 65.0 65.0 63.0 0 3 152 0 0 0 63.4 55.8 51.6 54.1 53.4 50.8 38 11-58 -44 286 181-30 -11-15 -15-12 -13 59.56% 31.53% -25.48% -18.37% -20.03% 9.15% 9 2 79-60 273 168 EBIT 2.6 4.7 5.6 7.7 11.2 15.0 3 9 89-58 309 230 75.68% 74.47% 52.87% 47.62% 58.50% 64.89% 14

0 0 0 1 3 0 0 0 0 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1.00 1.71 1 2 3 4 5 1.00 = 1.01~2.0= 2.01~3.0= 3.01~4.0= 4.01~5.0= () 1 2008-12-22 15.79 N/A 2 2009-02-20 17.70 N/A 3 2009-04-03 17.50 N/A 4 2009-04-22 20.44 N/A 5 2009-04-26 20.71 N/A 6 2009-08-12 13.63 N/A 7 2009-09-23 16.08 N/A 8 2009-10-29 15.39 N/A 21.68 19.68 17.68 15.68 13.68 11.68 9.68 7.68 5.68 080714 081010 1 081231 2 3 54 090401 090626 6 7 090916 8 091215 250 200 150 100 50 0 612 20% 612 10%20% 612-10%10% 612 10%20% 612 20% 15