東亞／西北太平洋氣候變遷

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1 h Ù 215 ¹ mfqý ó Ž Û 1 2,3 Joo-Hong Kim 2 2! 2 Ó 2,3 2, üžü ç h 2 x ç 3 ræ h Õ v Œ ½ Õ v Œ n½ î Ð ˆ n h ä n ä hv n ³x Œ ½³ ³ x ä hv n õ ³v v é Œî åð ³ÍŠ e é ö³ z n éö³ù i ô 50 v Ä 1950 v x hnn žwî Œ ½æ hnn Œžw hn³ u ¼ Œ ½æ n ³ é 1976/1977 v³ ö¼ì³ ³ Ì ÑÌm õœ ³é Œo ³ Í çõ ³hv( ) òôœ³ hv Ä 1950 v x nn žwî ä hv éöˆ Œ ½ƒåä hv u ˆ³ wv ïx ѳ ˆ v v é Ñ Œî ëäç(wmo)oì u ˆÑ éö³oo oä õ ˆ«x(Knutson et al. 2010) æ Œäžìˆ õ î Š ˆäžìˆ³ ìñ v š¹æ äž ³õ u ˆ ³ Œé îõð é ³uv š yõ ³ u ˆäž ôè ³ x v ù i

2 216 æ p õ v (1951 v x) v u ˆ ˆ Œ v é Ð 1961 v x v u ˆ ˆ v g ÌŒ î Ó Ë}òôŠŒ 1970 v x Æzé wv³é ˆ 2005 v³ ½æ Ð 1970 v xä hv u ˆwv w u ˆ ˆŒg î æ ~ Š ³x šõ ½³ì± 숳 Œ Ðze} î p Œ g î Åç öœ ½æ æé õœhv é ³ ŒÆzî ùo é ³ è Œ³äž î é ˆõ é Š Œ õ v Ä 1950 v x u ˆ³ïxŒ ½ ³ö¼ òhv v ³ ö¼ Ä 1976/1977 v 1998 vt wöä v ïxé Œ ³Æzî ö ô³v( )³ Öxì ô v ( )³ šœ e³ u ˆ ˆ Æzî e éö³ù i ³ œ Œ ³Š î Ð 1948 v i ˆ ³gŸ œ uähv gšî v ³ Œî Œ ez³t õhhˆ ³î Œ¾ x Œ õ ç õ ÑŸv³v ª}Ñ ¾ éö y ýn n ä hv n u ˆ éö Í éö ³é éö ³é x e³ x p ³h ÄÅ Ð ˆ šq h n ä hv n ³x å Š oð ³ h ³x y äy å n ³ éö j n n ³nÄÅ ØÁ uä 20 N 45 N 110 E 140 E ³ e Œ Ð õ h ³œe(Wang and LinHo 2002) hn áä n ä Å h ³ g hv ³hv u g n n ä h ³ä g œ ³ gä (Chang 2004, Webster et al. 1998) ä hv n (Western North Pacific, WNP) hnn

3 h Ù 217 ³ nn ÄÅ ä Å Öxìœ ³n hnšæn ³wv Ê n³ähv u ˆ Œo Ð ˆ n n ³é x Ð ³h ÄÅ n ³ y v Œ n³ Ð h Ð ³ n 5 6 Œ³ n x³ n Œ³h Œ h ná ³Š n á³ n öœ n ô Ìhn á³ä n j ½ Ü ³ ü o Õ Ð Ð u Ðp Ð ä u ëš ù Ð n jp õ ñ³šœ v³ Œ Šhn á³ ä hv u g Ƴ ähv Öxìœ Üxä hv n n Œä ³ëo wž v u ñ³o ÄÅi ¼n 10 Œ 11 Œ h j š š n n ä n³ á hn î n³ šö Ç ƒô ³ Ð Œ ÍŠ n ³ x³ ~ Ð õp ³ëh òˆëšh ³ n n nš Ðv o Ð p ä ³ n nšð á n ˆ hpî ³ xp ä ÜˆÍ xo Ì ô ò Ì hn ä hu³š ½ î n ³½ ò Ð õ Ð nv ³ ùö òh noæh n o v ³ì«n³ n o Ÿ³x x Ð n³ÿv õño «n Œo ³ n wš Ÿ p õw Ì n ³o õ ³ ¾ Ÿ Œˆ ä hv n õ ³ éö ô ½ ³ì ˆ ½ˆšx h nç n õ ³ éö ƒ uõð h ¼n ³ u ˆ ç ä hv n ³ éö Œ Œ õ ³ Œé î ç ³ e éö z e¼i¾ Œ ½ f vf éˆ n w v³ Œî Š ³ NCEP (National Centers for Environmental Prediction) / NCAR (National Center for Atmospheric Research) Reanalysis I ³ìˆ Æ ho jš 1948 v e³ î CRU (Climatic Research Unit) version 2.0 ³Œv ìˆ Æ ho 숚 1901 Ð 2002 v ô Ÿ œÿî v³ HadCRUT3 (Brohan et al. 2006)ìˆ œv gî v³ HadSLP2 ìˆ(allan and Ansell 2006) ä hv u ˆ ³ Ê Í éf y(joint Typhoon Warning Center, JTWC)ƒ ³ u ˆ ïx(best track)ì ˆ ošåü u ˆ y Ê

4 218 h õ ƒô ³wvŠ JTWC ³nË o u ˆ wv u g u îä Œˆ ö ƒ æš v Œ³ u ˆË ³±} Å ƒô õ³ u ˆ zš u ˆ õ½ Ó ùo nwv æ ½½ ˆ 1960 v ³ìˆ ìò ¹n n u g³ åü ö 1961 vð 2009 vìˆ u ˆ³ Œé» ô ò ( ) ú ò tœæh ½ Š ÍŠ n é Guo et al. (2003)³ 1951 vð 2000 v n žw õ hv ( ) ³äž ç o pd õ žo 1 o ph á hn³o õ žo 2 ~ n žw³î IPCC æ f (IPCC 2007) Œ ½³ 7 8 Œo pœé ³î Š u ½ ³ ¼ n ³žw õ ˆ e gh g ³î (Yu et al. 2004) h Œ ½ n ³žw hn u³ ¼Œxi³ (Zhai et al. 2004) õ y ³ Óo Š Ÿ n žw³î Î ö IPCC æ f p Guo et al. (2003)³nË o n ³ Œé w Ð 1850 v n žw³î p õ 1850 v Ð æ p 1940 v v pv³é ò h ôv vn žwî ò ³ŠŒ Œ ½æ n ³ é 1976/ 1977 v³ ö¼ì³ ³(Wang 2001) Ì éñìm õœ ³é Œo ³ Í(Huang et al. 2003, Qian et al. 2003) 2007 v xo hnn ˆ³ ½õ p ä h oî ³ ½ i³ n v n ž w³î (Zhou et al. 2008) ³ 1970 v x hnn Ìm³ õ w õ ³v é y(wang et al. 2008) h Œ ½æ hnn šœžw Ì ¼ (Li et al. 2010) p e ³hn gw³î h nn y³ Êé ÌoгÅç o Ñ n žw³î ( ) n ò nn o ph ³ ä Å h ³ä g hv ³ g á ô p Œ šq³ á ½ Œ ˆä g ½³ n òw ä g òw Ÿò ½ Ñéw (Shi 1996, Gong and Wang 1999, Kang et al. 2006, Jhun and Lee 2004, Cui and Sun 1999, Li 1988, Qiu and Wang 1984) õ ³v( ) Ÿ³ nn é ç ùoõ ³hv ( ) (Gong and Wang 1999) òôœ³ v³ ½(chen et al. 2000, Shi 1996, Kang et al 2006, Cui and Sun 1999)

5 h Ù vð 2010 v Webster and Yang (1992)nË hnn ˆé Š v tå oˆ Ÿt õá Ÿ x³ ˆˆ ˆnË 10 N 40 N 110 E 140 E ev 850hPa Æ ž 200hPa Æ Œ NCEP/NCAR reanalysis I (Kalnay et al. 1996)ìˆåÀ ÚÆ v ÄÆ 11 v¼ v ÅÆ ŒÆzî vð 2010 v Li and Zeng (2002)nË hnn ˆé Š v tå oˆ Ÿtõá Ÿ x³ ˆˆ Œ NCEP/NCAR reanalysis I (Kalnay et al. 1996)ìˆåÀ Á 10 N 40 N 110 E 140 E ÚÆ v ÄÆ 11 v¼ v ÅÆ ŒÆzî

6 220 æ p º nn žw õ 50 hv ( ) 500hPa vf ³ î ) 3(a)* é wv È nn õ žw Ìä g wv ³v é Œ î ) 3(b)* õ tœ ½³Åç Ð(Jhun and Lee 2004, Cui and Sun 1999, Li 1988, Qiu and Wang 1984) nn žw tœ ½ ä gžwš n³ÿv (Shi 1996, Gong and Wang 1999, Kang et al. 2006) i 4(a)º 1960 vð 2009 v ³ n h ô Ÿv Æz î p 40 N Ÿôõ Œ Ð ³ gÿ x õ Cyr 1 œ hv Æv hv Ä 10 N 20 N œÿ yw î hv v gšî ŠŒ³œv gé i 4(b)º 45 N œv gšõ î ˆä g³ ä e 40 N 70 N 70 E 120 E Æv œv gšõ ³î ä gžw ³ ë г q ogsß ô u ˆ(Tropical Cyclone, TC)³ Š h äá Š œv Ÿv Îg ph ³ Î õ ³ éœ ˆ u ˆ³ ³p(Gray 1979) Š ÍŠ h éš Ä³ é in ÄÅ ³é ³d f é) x u ˆ³ ³p ïx u ˆ ³ Œé æh ă ä hv n ³ n n Í u ˆ³Ÿv òˆ ôô hv hn nn žwî Wang et al. (2001)nË ùvä hv n wv Œé ³ ô v ä hv n wv î Œ v é ä hv u ˆ Œ v é Ì m(chan 1985, 2000, Lander 1994, Chen et al. 1998, Wang and Chan 2002) v pÿ v (Chan 1995) õœ³v é (Chan and Shi 1996, Ho et al. 2004) Œo Ìõv n x i 1970 v ŒŒ³hv v ³ óé é hv ³œ (Nitta and Yamada 1989, Trenberth 1990, Graham 1994, Trenberth and Hurrell 1994) wî Ìm ˆ ³v é i Wang 1995) ÿˆìmoä hv u ˆ ³x Chan and Liu (2004) wç ƒ Œ u ˆwv³é Š y oìm ˆ i Š é ³ Ä Ë}õ p wv ïx Ñ ³ ˆ åçä hv u ˆ³v v é Ñ Œî ( ) v Š ÍŠ u ˆ³ z ½ õœ³ é x y 1990 v Œ j õœ ÌmŠ pv 2 7 v ³ v v é õ ä hv œ e u ˆ é ³ùäé (Lander 1994, Chan and Shi 1996) õ 49 v ( ) ä hv v u ˆ ˆ³é 5 ää hv u ˆ ˆ

7 h Ù (a) v 30 N 45 N 125 E 145 E e 500hPa vf ïvé á wv ³é Š v tå oˆ Ÿtõá Ÿ x³ˆ ÚÆ v ÅÒ Æ î Æ ÄÒ Æ ÚÒ Æ 11 vÿ v Å (b) 40 N 60 N 70 E 120 E e œv g ïvé áä gwv³é ìˆ Ÿ NCEP/NCAR reanalysis I (Kalnay et al. 1996)

8 222 æ p 4 n 12 ŒÐ v 2 Œ ³ ŒÆzî (a) vô Ÿ œÿî ( o Cyr 1 ) ìˆ HadCRUT3 (Brohan et al. 2006) (b) 1960~2008 vœv gî (hpa yr 1 ) Æ ï Ò ï ìˆ HadSLP2 (Allan and Ansell 2006) ³é õœä 30 v³v 5(a) wv x wv w³ u g 5(b) ò ³v é Yumoto and Matsuura (2001)³ 1951 v Ð 1999 v wvðoõ u ³ u ˆv «Œ ³ õ Œ oô n ³ô v³õœ òõv «Ñ «ŠŒœŸ³ ³ wvðoõ u ³ u ˆv «Ñ 150 E ³œv ŸvŒ ³ ƃ ½ x Matsuura et al. (2003)xÈÈÈ ò h -œ Ì w(aogcm) ÑäžÅ oä hv wvðoõ u ³ u ˆ «v v pvé ƒ Î ³x îõ hv h v ³œv Ÿv ùä³åò îõ hv œv Ÿvw³îõähv Ñ hv ³ä ïv oðn w h Œ u ˆ ³ e Ì òh u ˆ Webster et al. (2005) 1970vÐ 2004vŒ u ˆ «³Æzé ³ çë}

9 h Ù vð 2009 vä hv u ˆ ˆ³õvé (a) ³ u ˆ ˆ (b)ð(e) JTWC (Joint Typhoon Warning Center)³nË wv x u g u îä ³ ˆ ÚÆ 49 v³æzî ÄÆ 7 vÿ v (a) (d) ³Æzî õõ 90%³ yv n

10 224 Ç «Ë}ä hv œe wvðo õ ³ u ˆ «Åå ³ é Œ ½owvòw³ u Ð u g Ë}õ ùˆ 1970 vð 2009 v ä hv ³ u ˆ «³ u ˆÇ ˆ Åå ³Æzé Óo ³ŠŒ w u ˆ wv ij u ˆ ˆŒÅå ³ î i 5 º Ð 1961 vî õ 49 v ä hv u ˆ³ «v ³õ«žo 5(a) wv x wvõ ij u ˆ õ«( 0.047yr 1 )ò 5(d) ÇÅ ç Œäžìˆ³õ v ä hv ³ v u ˆ ˆ Œ v é õ v v g ³ é ÓË}äžìˆ ì o ò ³ŠŒ 1970 v x Æzé ˆäž³ v ì õ Æzé Š Œ p ¹ ³nç (Kuntson et al. 2010) õ ÁŒõ åç ( ) Õ ˆ u ˆwv³v v é Chan ˆÁçˆ(Chan and Liu 2004, Chan 2006, Chan 2008)wçä hv ³ u ˆwvŒÅ å ³v é v é Chan (2008) x w wvõ Ä Ä «(occurrence)³v v é ³hp v æ i ʳ é Î ä Ä w ˆò ³v ä hv ³ 5 N 20 N 150 E ³œ Ÿv ïv ³h Ñ æ p Œ u ˆ u ˆ ä¼á ï¼ áåšœ gw Ðwv Ä Ä ³ õ õw v v é ³ Ž ¼v ˆ õ u ˆwvv pvé ³ (Chan and Liu 2004, Camargo and Sobel 2005, Chan 2007) h Chan (2008)ƒ u ˆwv³h v (multidecadal)é ˆÌm³hv é hv v (Pacific Decadal Oscillation, PDO) (Mantua et al. 1997)³x Matsuura et al. (2003)Ñ Kim et al. (2010) v pv³ u hv gÿ x uä hv o p³ äh u ˆwv³ Œî ˆ Œ ½ wœgwî i Webster et al. (2005) 1970 vð 2004 vwvðoõ u ³ u ˆ ˆé wçy 1970 vî ä hv wvðoõ Ä Ñ Ä ³ u ˆ ˆ g Emanuel (2005)æ u œÿ³ ä hv u ˆ³w õ (peak wind speed) g (destructiveness) ˆ 1970 v Œ x h Ú Ä á äžùˆo wv Œ Ðz o ò ³ u ˆäž(Kossin et al. 2007) Elsner et al. (2008) õ ô v ( )ä hv w 2.5% u ˆ³wvŒ ³ î Œ o ½p Åç o ä Œ ½ µˆ u ˆìˆ Œ Ðze } æ šp Œ g î ³ ë Å ç ì± JTWC ïx(jtwc best track) ³ u ˆ õ순 ¹nz o ³wv î Åå z î i Wu et al. 2006, Kamahori et al. 2006, Kossin et al. 2007,

11 h Ù 225 Song et al. 2010) h Œ ½æ äž ³ Æzî õœhv é ³ õ ½ tƒ ³ Chan ˆÁçˆ (Chan and Liu 2004, Chan 2006, Chan 2008) õ ½ ˆ½ á u ˆwv iwvðo õ Ä Ä Ñ ³ u ˆ ˆ Ë i Typhoon Destruction Potential (Gray et al. 1992) Power Dissipation Index (Emanuel 2005) 鈳 Œé ½Å wçä hv ³ u ˆwvŒÅå ³v é v é ³ÑŸn g Š Œ ³Æz î ò áz³ Chan (2006) Webster et al. (2005)³Åç Óo Š w Ð 1960 v 1970 v î Ä Ñ Ä ³ u ˆ ˆ g ³ ë 6 o hv ³ oˆõ õ äž º³ u ˆ Œé Š Í ç ëäç (World Meteorological Society, WMO) h ½å (World Weather Research Programmes, WWRP) oì u ˆÑ éö³oo oä õ ˆ«xõ è³áoˆ (Knutson et al. 2010) o x ëäç u ˆ å (Seventh International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones)Ñ Ë³ (WMO 2011) æˆçô u ˆ ³é ä õ ˆåç œ e³ u ˆ é äåç ˆ Œä ž v ì³ Œî Œ v š¹æ äž ³õ u ˆ ³ Œé ½¾ îõð ÄÅÎõé 6 v g (Potential Destruction Index, PDI) ä hv wvðoõ Saffir Simpson scale Ä Ñ Ä ³ u ˆv ˆ(NCat45) v 5 ŒÐ 11 Œv (5 N 30 N 120 E 180 E)³œŸïv (SSTA) Œé Œéˆ tå o г ŸtÅõ Ÿ Ü Ð Chan 2006

12 226 ³uv( Trend detection is further impeded by substantial limitations in the availability and quality of global historical records of tropical cyclones. Therefore, it remains uncertain whether past changes in tropical cyclone activity have exceeded the variability expected from natural causes ) ˆ ö šyõ ³ u ˆåü ôè ³ éö³åü( Despite some suggestive observational studies, we cannot at this time conclusively identify anthropogenic signals in past tropical cyclone data ) ( ) ÿ ˆ Š ÍŠ ä hv u ˆï xi é Œ³äž h ùˆv p v³é u ˆïx³ Œé Œ ³Æzî ö Ho et al. (2004) 1951 vð 2001 vœ ìˆ Ñ Wu et al. (2005) 1965 vð 2003 vœ ìˆ ³ ˆ 1970 v ŠŒ 1980 v Œ³ ³ é hn u ˆ³v áïx ä ¼ ŠŒ 1970 v ŒŒ hv g ä ½ w (Gong and Ho 2002) õ ½æ n Áv ³ u g ä w x hpv ³ow õì énáv ³ u ˆï x Јhv u g ʳ½ é Î u v ähv œá ŸvÑo ³ é (Zhou et al. 2009) h Liu and Chan (2008) 1960 vð 2005 vä hv wvðoõ u ³ u ˆ «Åõ v šü x Å ˆ (Empirical Orthogonal Function, EOF) ä v u ˆïx³v é x ³ ä (mode) ˆ æ p v ³ «Œ³ u ˆ «³d } Ho et al. (2004)Ñ Wu et al. (2005)³ ³v é 1990 v ŒŒ ˆ œñð u³½é Tu et al. (2009)oˆx ËŒæij ½ Ð 2000 vî u ˆ wvð oõ u ïxœ ½ ³ é Ì ƒôð ô³ u ˆ z g 7 y äž³ 2000 vî u ˆïxŒ œ ¼³ ë Š w³hv u gñò gw³n uä hv œv Ÿv³gŠ õ é³ õ Š Œ Í ä ³ƒå y ôäž ³ x õ v u ˆïx³½ ö¼(shift) Ñ uœá Ÿv hv u g³½ é Œ õ é v Ñhv v ³ ö¼(regime shift) Š³ wöä 2 v hv v ³ ö¼ ³ 1976 vð 1977 v(nitta and Yamada 1989) 1998 vt (McPhaden and Zhang 2004) ö¼³ ³ Œµhçš æ Ÿ ˆ hv ÆvÑ u v hv ³Ì õ¼ Îoˆç ä hv n u gäå õìx u ˆ³ïx ùäåò (q) ñêµ šœ u ˆ Ñïx³é ŒpÑ u ˆ³³ õ³ Œ Í æ h ½ ³ Ñ ³ Œ é ˆ u ˆo ³á Ren et al. (2006) 1957 vð 2004 vx h ³ u ˆ

13 h Ù vð 2006 v n 6 ŒÐ 10 Œ õõð ô(21 N 26 N 119 E 125 E) ˆ³Š v ìˆ h ëpƒ Ð Tu et al Œwv³ u ˆ v Ñv ³é æ ½ u ˆ z³ Œî ³ u ˆÑ ³ ˆ u ˆ³ ù v u ˆõ³ë ³ «u ˆu vç ù³ «žo³î ½ º u ˆ o ³á Œ ³Æz î Ì õá ½ ëp(china Meteorological Administration, CMA)³ ïxìˆ Wang et al. (2008) ìˆ Ÿ Ê Í éf y (Joint Typhoon Warning Center, JTWC) ë p À u ˆo ³á ³ Ë Ð ëpìˆo ³Å òw ³žoî ÿˆ ìˆ Ÿ гî æùõ Æzî Šy è} Å u ˆ v pv ³ é Kim et al. (2006)³ ˆ 1970 v ŒŒî u ˆ wvðoõ u g ³ õ³h ( 100mm day )Œ ïñ 1 z³v ½é 1970 v ŒŒhn³ ½é y hv u g ä w ö o p ³ ¼ óx áõ³ u ˆ ò õ Æv³ä Ì u ˆÑ o p Æ ³ g w õ é ô³ é igw ³ o pò ò õ Ñü x u ˆwгh gw õ ³ ³ u ˆ ˆ Œ ³v é õ 60 v( )Œ ŠŒ vñ v ŠŒ v (Choi et al., 2010) ³ ³é ô Kubota and Chan (2009) y 1902 vð 2005 v³ Öxì³ u ˆ)wvÐoõ u * ˆ ³ v é õœ 10 vðõœ 32 v³v n Ì Œ³î Chan and Xu (2009)

14 228 õ o Ä f e î Öxì) Ñ Œ y 1945 vð 2004 vœ wvðoõ u u ˆ³ ˆ³é ŒŠ v ³é ÑÌm hv v ³é Œ x šœ Æzî» ô Š ç œ Œ ³Š î i 8 º Ð 1948 v oˆ ei hv ÆvÄ 35 N 45 N ³œe œ ³g Ÿ Ÿv x y õ é Äh ³é x ³î ³ eé ÓŸv é ò ½ ³ z i IPCC æ f ô î Æv e ³ g ³ Ì u u ˆh n³x Ì ž o³ º eo Š Œ ³ ~ (Zhang et al. 2007) v ³ Œî i ô ³ é Ñ Œ ez³t õhh ˆ ³î v î Œæh ½ ¾ ³ «g õ îv ³ Œé x Áp Œ p ÑŸv³v ª} ¾ ç õ ³ éö y æ ( ) 1. Õ p (1) v Ÿv v Ÿé î Ñ î õ 50 v( ) v Ÿ 1.1 C î o ³½ t ˆŠ ä î ž³hn Ÿ î (Ren et al. 2004) Óo Š w v³ 97 v v Ÿ 0.79 o C ŠŒ 1930 v Ð 1940 v Ñ 1980 v Ð 1990 v õ 97 vœ nñ n³gÿ hn ³ î (Ding et al. 2007) (2) ¾Ÿv Ð 1950 v v ³ Ÿ ˆ 0 C ³hˆ õ žo Ÿ ˆ 35 C ³hˆ g î (Ren et al. 2004) Ÿv é î ³½ ˆ ô 45 v ( ) Ñä œ³ «Œ õ î p šœ u Œžoî 9 (Piao et al. 2010) 2. ñê (1) v ô v 1950 v x v v î (Ding et al. 2007, Piao et al. 2010) 10(a) ˆv Ñ š e žoî p 10(b) eñ ä hˆ e Œ ³ g î ev ù³g î ä hn ³ 10(b) (Ding et al. 2007) Ó òná ³î

15 h Ù vð 2009 v vv ô Ÿ œÿ³ ŒÆzî ( o Cyr 1 ) ìˆ HadCRUT3 (Brohan et al. 2006) vð 2006 v œ³ «î (day(10yrs) 1 )³½ Ð Piao et al. 2010

16 230 æ p vð 2006 v h ³ Œé Ñî (a)h v vv tž v v ³ Œé )mm* o nñ vv ù³î (mm(yr) 1 ) (b) nñ vv î vv ù (%(yr) 1 )³½ Ð Piao et al. 2010

17 h Ù 231 vv ˆõ ô v ( )hnÑ n Œg î ¼n ž oî wv³é 1960 vð 2006 vœ v ˆ ³ žoî (Piao et al. 2010) 11 ô vv ù î ³ ë wvî òw³{x ùohn Endo et al. (2005) 1961 vð 2000 v ³v ù ˆ wv ³hnv wvh g ³î x ³ Š ÍŠ ³ Œé öuœv é ³åÜ i ³ õ v Œ ³ óé õ ³é õ ³ Å (tripole pattern) (Lau 1992, Tian and Yasunari 1992, Nitta and Hu 1996, Weng et al. 1999, Hsu and Liu 2003, Hsu and Lin 2007)Œ (2) ¾ Ren et al. (2004) ½õ 50v ³ ¾ ³ «é pvìå î Gong and Wang (2000) õ é o ³Š v v ŠŒ ³ ³ õ ŠŒ î võ ŠŒ ³ ¾ ³ž¾ ˆ ³ ¾ ôv v g î Qian et al. (2007) hn ìˆ o vœ ³ wv Äo (light rain events) (moderate rain events) ¾ (extreme vð 2006 v ˆî (day(10yrs) 1 )³½ Ð Piao et al. 2010

18 232 æ p rain events) î é ³Åå Å º ço î ez³å õñ ôù hnn Œ Ì ¾ ³{x e³é oˆ e Endo et al. (2005)ùo võ Š ohn wv Ä wä ù h ˆ 90%³hnĽ ù î õ 40% šq ˆ± º ³î Zhang, Zhang, and Jiang (2007) o e h ù x e³ ¾w Œ g ³{x Ren et al. (2004) ³õ v ( ) e³ ³ «ùo e³hn Zhang et al. (2009)æ hnç ù î ˆŒ žoî ÌwvŒ g î æ é Ñwvg Ð ˆ w ³žo h ùo ³ «³ Œé Gong et al. (2005) h v Œ në õè ³ ˆ ˆ 1956 vð 2000 v³ Œé oˆ 10 ³ Œ³ «ä Œ g 10 ³ Œ³ «Œ g î e î ( ) it 1. Õ Œ Œ Ÿ Œî Ð Œ o éöf (JMA 2010) (1) v Ÿv 1898 vð 2009 v v Ÿ 1.13 o C (100yrs) 1 ³õ«(JMA 2010) (2) ¾Ÿv 1901 vð 2009 v ¾ Œ Ÿ³³ «Œ î ¾ Œ Ÿ³³ «1931 vð 2009 v Ÿ ˆ 30 o C ³hˆ î ˆ 35 o C ³hˆ 1980 v x g 12 Ÿ ˆ 0 o C ³hˆ Ÿ ˆ 25 o C ³hˆ g o hžo Šhg º ³Š î x ³ òˆ Ÿ ˆ 35 C hˆ 1980 v ½ g Š î Œ Ðz³é ñê (1) v ôœ v Œ³vv î Ä 1920 v Ñ 1950 v oòh oì å ôˆ v ³v é ò òh (JMA 2010) h 20 Ä ) v* hn ùˆ 20 Ä Œ Œòh ³ Œî Ñvv ³é (2) ¾ Fujibe et al. (2005) 1898 vð 2003 vˆ Š å v³ Œž¾ìˆ o wv Äõá Å ºòw³ g î ³vÄg 20%Ð 30% ò w žo õ ³{š n³ w³ g {x hn ¼n n 20 Äx ³gu 20 Ä

19 h Ù Œ Ÿ ˆ 35 o C ³hˆ Ÿ ˆ 0 o C ³hˆ Ÿ ˆ 25 o C ³hˆ Ð JMA 2010

20 234 æ p vð 2009 v Œvv ³õvé Žª vv vœ 51 ž¾³ v ÃÆ 5 vÿ v Ð JMA 2010 h Fujibe et al. (2006) 1901 vð 2004 v 51 ž¾ìˆ Œ wvñ «³ Œé wvñ «10 Ä ùhˆ 100mm v h ƒv 100 ³ 104 v é ³{xi 10% 10 vg 2.3% ³h 10 vg 2.6% õ é ä ŒÑ¼h ÑnÁ Œòw ³åÜ w) ih ˆ 50mm ³ ù 1000 h³ *³ î ³ Š Îg Fujibe et al. (2006) Œ³ h é ³ 1901 vð 2004 v g î oˆ 1mm ³ náñ ³g v 10 väg 0.4%Ð 0.7% 31 ùƒv ³ 1% 10 vg 10% ˆ³ Œ éöf (JMA 2010) Œ ˆ³ ¾ î ù i Ð 1901 vð 2009 v ¾oŒ ³³ «Œ î ¾hŒ ³³ «î 1901 vð 2009 v ù ˆ 100mm h ˆŒ g î ˆ 200mm hˆ î 1,000 Ð ù¾æ 1976 vð 2009 v Š ùé Š ù ˆ 50mm ³³ «³g Åå z 14 ˆ 80mm ³³ «Œg Åå z ù ˆ 200mm Ñ 400mm ³³ «Œg î Åå z

21 h Ù vð 2009 v Œ 1000 Ð ù¾š ù ˆ 50mm ³³ «Ð JMA 2010 ( ) Œ Ÿ Œî Ð o éöf (Yoon 2010) 1. Õ (1) v Ÿv õ 100 v Ÿ 1.87 C o î 15 hnÿvî n 1980 v x Ÿv (2) ¾Ÿv ¾ ŸÑÅ ³ «ˆ 5.5ºC ³hˆ žo ¾ Ÿ³ «Šh³ «g (Yoon 2010) 2. ñê (1) v õ ˆ v v ù Šõ g 1996 vð 2005 v v g Äg 10% (Yoon 2010) hn ˆ Jung et al. (2010) 1973 vð 2005 v ³ ùž¾ìˆ ºhn z g Ì nñ n Œ žo áhn vçù³ g ŒÄ 50%ƒ Ð 60%t i Œô³v숳 6 ž¾ 1970 v ³ v ùé î Œ yg 1970 v x³g î o æh ³hn ù 20 Ä g ³g î î 10 väg 0.15mm(day) 1 õõ 95% Åå z

22 236 æ p 15 v Ÿ tž v v ³õvé ÜÆ ÆÑoÆ 4 12 Ñ 20 ž¾v Ð Yoon 2010 Óo Ðo e v ) 16* ³ v 6 ŒÐ 9 Œ³ ù i v hn é 20 ÄŒ ù h³šœ Ì 19 ČР20 Ä ù o³šœ 20 ij ù g î hnç ù³é hn Œ ù³ t Œ é ˆ 8 Œ³ ù 20 Äx g Ì 7 Œ 8 Œ Ñ ³ g Ð eœžo³{x(ha et al. 2006, 2009, Lee et al. 2010) Wang et al. (2007) ù³ìˆ Å ºæ ³ n j Š Œ wxî 18 ÄŒÄ 37 6 Œ 30 Ð 7 Œ 4 Ð 20 ÄŒté 44 8 Œ 4 Ð 8 Œ 8 n j (2) ¾ Ho et al. (2003) ô 50 v³ ìˆ Å ºôv h ³³ Ç h ˆhn Œ r ïš Ç Œ 7 Œ 9 Œ óé 7 Œ 8 Œ Ð 8 Œv Wang et al. (2006) ùo ž¾ Œ ³ hv³åü ùîõ 75mm ˆ h ù ƒvˆ 99% ¾ ˆ ¾ ù³œ î ÌÓ w ƒv Çùõ ³ 67% ˆ wv ˆ Œ î á w vg Jung et al. (2010) ½ 1973 v x 183 ž¾³ ùìˆ 3 ³v ù 95% wv ³ ¾ hh g ³î i ô g ˆ Œth ³hn i i À ìÿ ˆ³ ˆ³ éöf (Yoon 2010) ˆ³ ¾ î ù i ˆžo ùg º wvg v ¾ ù î vð 2005 v hn 6 ŒÐ 9 Œ Šõg æhž¾³ wv g

23 h Ù vð 2004 v 6 ŒÐ 9 Œ ù Ã Æ á Œ h o ³ 30 v Ð Wang et al vð 2006 v v ù ¾ ³õvé ÃoÆ 5 vÿ v Æ Æzô Æ Æzî 230mm (56yrs) 1 Ð Yoon 2010 Choi and Moon 2008

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32 246 æ p Climate Changes in East Asia/Western North Pacific Yi-chao Wu 1 Huang-Hsiung Hsu 2,3 Joo-Hong Kim 2 Peng Liu 2 Pao-Chun Tang 2 Wei-Kai Huang 2,3 Chun-Kai Yang 2,3 Chia Chou 3 Chung-Hsiung Sui 2 1 National Science and Technology Center for Disaster Reduction 2 Department of Atmospheric Sciences, National Taiwan University 3 Research Center for Environmental Changes, Academia Sinica 4 Central Weather Bureau, Taipei, Taiwan (manuscript received 9 February 2012 in final form 4 May 2012) ABSTRACT Located in the Asian Monsoon region, Taiwan s climate and weather are primarily influenced by two monsoon systems, the East Asian monsoon and the western North Pacific monsoon. To realize the climate change in the nearby regions of Taiwan, this study reviews the decadal, interdecadal variability, and the long-term trend of the climate in these two monsoon regions. The climate changes in the East Asian Monsoon are summarized below. Over the past 50 years (since 1950s), the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) shows a weakening trend. Some studies argue that the EASM does not actually weaken. Rather, it is the tendency for a southward shift of the summer rain belt that results in the seeming weakening of the EASM. Some studies argue that the EASM changes along with the occurrence of 1976/1977 climate regime shift, and that it is closely related to the variations in ENSO during that period. No matter over the past 100 years ( ) or over the past 50 years (since 1950s), the East Asian winter monsoon exhibits a weakening trend. The climate changes in the western North Pacific monsoon is represented by the changes in the formation, intensity, track, and associated precipitation and landfall activity of tropical cyclones. In a comprehensive review (Knutson et al. 2010), the World Meteorological Organization s (WMO) expert team on Climate change Impacts on Tropical Cyclones concluded that, given the limitation in the availability and

33 h Ù 247 quality of global historical observation of tropical cyclones, it is still unsure whether past changes in tropical cyclone activity have exceeded the variability expected from natural causes. Identifying anthropogenic influences in tropical cyclone activity in the past is still unachievable currently. The climate changes in the western North Pacific tropical cyclone activity are summarized below. The annual number of tropical cyclone exhibits prominent decadal variability over the past 60 years (since 1951) and a significant decreasing trend over the past 50 years (since 1961). However, no significant linear trend is found if a shorter period (since 1970) is considered. In terms of the changes in tropical cyclone intensity, some observational studies (Webster et al. 2005; Emanuel 2005) reported that the intensity and the number of intense tropical cyclone exhibited prominent upward trends, which were attributed to anthropogenic influences. The findings were contested by other studies, mainly due to the concern of data consistency and the short record length relative to the periods of interdecadal variability. With respect to above disagreements, the current consensus (Knutson et al. 2010) is that it is still not certain whether these past changes in the tropical cyclone intensity result from anthropogenic influences. Over the past 60 years (since 1960s), the tracks of tropical cyclone underwent two abrupt shifts. Both shifts occurred around two years later than the well-known Pacific climate regime shifts, the event and the 1998 event. The number of tropical cyclones that make landfalls in the Philippines over the past 100 years ( ) and that in the coastal regions of East Asia over the last 60 years (1945~2004) shows no significant linear trend. The long-term trends of temperature and precipitation in East Asia and the western North Pacific are also examined. Since 1948, the land surface in East Asia (especially northern and eastern China) and the entire subtropical western North Pacific have warmed up significantly. While the temperature over the East Asia and the western North Pacific shows an overall warming trend, the precipitation exhibits remarkable regional differences. The trends are insignificant in most regions, however. The study also reviews how the mean state and extremes of temperature and precipitation have changed in Japan, Korea, and China in the past to further illustrate the regional climate changes in East Asia. Key Words: East Asian monsoon, Western North Pacific monsoon, Tropical cyclone, Climate change

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