中山大学目录09.4-OK

2009 å 4 4 { Addax i 2008 å â ƒõ å 2009 å 8 18 { ëñ Íá 52.8 wg wì Ñ Addax i i w ˆ Ñ { É Ò Ê i e Ñå Addax i ƒ {p { zš å ˆ d m } æ ˆ ª iê å { Addax i } æ i { Addax Ê { ß Ê ñs Ê q± å 08JA790131 x 105

China Management Studies volume 4 4 å 2008 å â ƒõ å 2009 å Éç 50 å i Î 480 g ø 242 g ~ 2008 å ä } 2009 å 6 24 {ß i Íá j Õi Èi { y êƒ i SIPC Addax i Addax petroleum corporation } } SIPC у 52.8 wg 46 g Addax i ƒ 2009 å 6 5 s Addax i p 47% 2009 å 8 6 ñs ç n 2009 å 8 18 {ß i ëñ Íá u } Ì v à å 52.8 wg wì Ñ Addax i Addaxi i ƒ 1.576 ø 83.2 wg 75 g i Addax i ± þm 1994 å Addax i Î { y êƒ E&P i jø w i 2006 å 2 Addax i 2008 åç ú Addax Petroleum Corporation 2008 Annual Information Form i úª w ¹ Bank of Canada iê {ƒp í 2009 å 6 24 w ¹ iá gñwg 1 1.15 {Íá Ì í 2009å8 18 w ¹ iá gñwg 1 1.10 106

2009 å 4 4 16 s TSX á å 2007 å 5 24 s LSE á ± m Addax i wþm ¼ 2008 åæ ø 53.17 g ø 28.65 g 54% i w 15.21 g 1 Addax i þm Addax i ååç e þm 2008 ååæ Addax i øe 3P e s 7.384 1 j e 2P e 5.367 Ô s w hæòò Ô s øe s 4.589 ~i øe 62.2% i e 2.08 Ó 1 Addax i e Ô s w hæòò Proved 133.8 66.7 13.7 214.2 Proved + Probable 324.0 103.3 109.5 536.7 Proved + Probable + Possible 458.9 127.0 152.6 738.4 Addax i 2008 ååç Addax i i 25 y êƒ «j y 15 êƒ 10 17 8 ¼ 2P e qá 30 àƒ u êƒw j 19 e w 51.7% j ¼ µ ± 107

China Management Studies volume 4 4 i 25 y êƒ à Í 100 ð 27.72 ˆ 8.25 j y w e j êƒ Ñ i 2 Addax i å } / Addax i ååç 2008 å Addax i äª 13.645 2009 å Éç Addax i }åäª 14.3 / 700 / å j Ô s ~ 72.2% w ~ 19.5% æòò~ 8.3% s wq Addax i wµ ô d w s w í 2008 åi ø i 37.62 g ns 7.84 g Éç i 2009 å Éçns 1.01% 2008 åiåns 20.84% 2008 åi 682 /å 2007 åµw 8.4% 3 Addax i å i ns ROE þm Addax i ååç 108

2009 å 4 4 i ê j s w i Ô s ê w 2008 åi äªí 94.53 g/ ƒ ˆ s 69.21 g/ 2 Addax i w s wq g/ 2006 2007 2008 Ô s äªí 63.60 73.59 94.53 6.12 6.01 7.61 s 45.36 53.81 69.21 w äªí 58.49 69.68 93.80 11.62 10.18 12.05 s 35.59 53.07 65.40 Addax i 2008 ååç q { Addax i i w ˆ Ñ { É Ò Ê i e Ñå Addax i ƒji {p Ñ ƒ ᪠mì i Ñ k mì Ñ ˆ Ñe i i Ñ Ñ i 109

China Management Studies volume 4 4 q ñ ± z á P/E án P/B Š ᪠}íë ᪠᪠± ƒ Ñ i q s á Addax i s NYSE á y êƒi Ñ ± ᪠áªñ i ƒ i 1. 4 Addax i EPS þm Addax i 2008 ååç i å 2008 å Addax i EPS 5.03 g 2003å 2005å äª 2.9 g/ 2008å w u Éç iå äªí 94.38 g/ 07 åµ 29% uþm 2009 å Ñ 2008 å ä iá i 4 Î Ñ Addax i 2009 å 2010 å j 2009 å ä 0.84 g 2.44 g äª 1.64 g 2010 å ä 2.44 g 4.23 g äª 3.3 g Addax i 2009 å}å 09 å }åi 0.28 g 2008 å }å 3.42 g 92% ± 09 åiå 0.56 g ú å uñ Addax i s w q ƒ îx Addax i 2009 å 2 g 2010 å 3 g 110

2009 å 4 4 5 Addax i i ƒjµ þm Addax i 2008 ååç Addax i 2008 å i 29.23 g 2004 å 2008 å åäª i 18.7 g i 2009 å i 19 g Addax i 2008 å 33.74 g 2004å 2008å åäª 17.3 g i 2009 å 17.5 g 3 s 2009 å 2 g 2010 å 3 g 2009 å i 19 g 2009 å 17.5 g 2. Ì i i Ñ s ï i ƒ ᪠w æ j ç i i g Ñ NYSE á 87 Î i Addax i 2008 å ø s 53.17 g p 2008 å j 0.5 5 i i p 31 Îi 31 Îi äª Addax i 1.23 Ñ ï i á àê 111

China Management Studies volume 4 4 àê j Ñns ï k Ñ 31 Î i Addax i 2003 å 2008 å åäª 62% 2008 å 54% u 31 Îi 70% i ñs 25 Î ª Addax i i Yahoo iá 2009å6 30 i åäªá 2010 å 12 31 á u êã á Ì á 10 Î i 4 á P/E i i 2008 å äªá P/E á P/E 1 COG 52% 21.12 29.98 2 CXO 53% 14.51 25.71 3 DNR 49% 39.40 21.67 4 EGN 49% 11.28 10.18 5 EOG 43% 10.40 27.68 6 FTO 48% 14.81 11.45 7 NBL 49% 12.15 21.13 8 PGH 50% 5.26 26.18 9 TLM 54% 6.58 19.08 10 TSO 57% 5.75 13.93 äª 14.13 20.70 12.15 21.13 NYSE i 10-k ƒ Yahoo i åç ƒ Yahoo ñs 25 i 2008 å 7 1 2009 å 6 30 Price/Sales 2009 å }å Price/Book u j Î êã i i 24 112

i 5 Price/Sales Price/Book i i Price/Sales Price/Book 2009 å 4 4 Price/Sales Price/Book 1 COG 4.21 2.10 13 NBL 4.84 2.02 2 XEC 2.87 1.98 14 PGH 2.17 1.12 3 CXO 6.56 2.54 15 PVA 1.08 0.97 4 DNR 3.73 2.13 16 PWE 2.41 0.86 5 EAC 2.85 1.72 17 HK 6.47 2.49 6 EGN 2.22 1.63 18 PXD 2.44 1.29 7 ERF 2.92 0.97 19 PXP 2.26 1.30 8 EOG 4.89 2.36 20 RRC 6.16 3.40 9 FST 2.08 2.85 21 SWN 7.00 6.99 10 FTO 0.27 1.25 22 TLM 2.53 1.72 11 ME 1.48 1.71 23 TSO 0.10 0.64 12 NFX 3.89 2.35 24 WLL 3.11 1.38 äª 3.27 1.99 2.86 1.72 NYSE i 10-k ƒ Yahoo 3. á P/E á P/E ñ gëñ íui sþm åç ˆs P/E wõ á Ñ i ¼ ië ri P/E = 1 i = f i á i äªá á Ñ Addax i ¼ 113

China Management Studies volume 4 4 6 á P/E Addax Addax 2009 å 2 g Ñ á äª 14.13 28.26 g 31.09 wg 2009 å 2 g Ñ á 12.15 24.30 g 26.73 wg 2010 å 3 g Ñ á äª 20.70 62.10 g 68.31 wg 2010 å 3 g Ñ á 21.13 63.39 g 70.06 wg äª 44.51 g 48.96 wg á P/E Addax i æ 31.09wg 68.31wg k w äª ä 48.96 wg 4. Price/Sales Price/Book Price/Sales Price/Book ië¼ Price/Sales= 2 Price/Book= 3 í r ¹úq xz = ³ qè hù ¹úq Price/Sales r ¹úq xz = ³ «Åz qè hù ¹úq Price/Book i Price/Sales Price/BookÑAddax i ¼ Addax i äª 46.96 wg ±n { Addax i äç 12.4% ª {Íá Ì í 2009å 8 18 w ¹ iá gñwg 1 1.10 114

2009 å 4 4 7 Price/Sales Price/Book Addax Addax 2009å i Ñ Price/Sales äª 62.13 g 68.34 wg 19 g 3.27 2009å i Ñ Price/Sales 19 g 2.86 2009å Ñ Price/Book äª 17.5 g 1.99 2009å Ñ Price/Book 17.5 g 1.72 36.45 g 40.10 wg 34.83 g 36.57 wg 30.10 g 38.311 wg äª 40.88 g 44.97 wg i i i z o 1 i 2 i w äª WACC 3 Ñ Ì i 4 i ƒ 1. i þm Ò ± w r Ó ië¼ Žnj = zðì h 1 zi + ö «Ç ²«ØÈ 4 Ñ Addax i å i ± i 10%ß i 2008 åç ± 2009 å äª 60 g/ sì i åç p q 16 g 14 / 14.5 / i sì ô k p åª 40 g/ ß i 2009 å p qñnò 10 g åçäª 13.2 / 13.7 / 2009 å i q þµ þ þµ 115

China Management Studies volume 4 4 þµ 2009 å äª 80 g/ þ þµ 2009 å äª 40 g/ þµ 60 g/ æ þm 8 þµ 2009 å äª g/ 8 2009 å þm 2009 å 2009 å å 2009 å i g 2009 å g/ 80 15.05 0.5493 43.944 4.39 60 14.25 0.5201 31.206 3.12 þ 40 13.45 0.4909 19.636 1.96 2. w äª 1 Ì s s s Í ë s j Bloomberg u å 3.625% CAPM R M R f q äª áª 3%s 7% ᪠᪠j 5% s s áª ç ƒ sáª Ñ Ì 6% ç i β Addax i s á 2006 å 3 24 2009 å 6 23 S&P/TSX ᪃ Addax i u ¹ i 807 ᪠᪠S&P/TSX ië INDEX INDEX 1 R mt= 5 t INDEX 1 t R mt t ᪠t INDEX t t ᪠INDEX t-1 t ᪠ê Addax i ië 116

R it= P P t t P 1 1 t R it t Addax i 2009 å 4 4 6 β t t Addax i β t-1 t Addax i Excel í β=1.295205 p β Í i ò Ñi ä q ië Eq 7 β = 34% K + 66% β 7 t 0 β t ˆ β K áª äª È CAMP K 1 β o ñ β β = 34% + 66% 1.295205 = 1.1948353 t Addax i β 1.20 Ì CAPM = + 8 R R [ ( ) ] i f E Rm Rf R f E(R m ) -R f ᪠β i Ñ áª ç u R = R [ ( ) ] 3.625% 1.20 6% 10.825% i f + βi E Rm Rf = + = Addax i 10.825% 2 Ì w Addax i 2008 ååç åçi Í s 6.21% 2007 å 7.96% Ì Addax i w 6.5% 3 Ìw äª WACC WACC úí 117

China Management Studies volume 4 4 B S WACC = K (1 T ) + K 9 b s V V WACC w äª K b u B/V ~ K S S/V ~ T ñ Ô s w ñ ñ q PSC Ì å w Í p ï u Addax i Ô s ñ 60% w ñ 35% Addax i u w å ñ p 2008 åô s w 4 1 i ñ ¼ 60% 0.8+35% 0.2=55% Addax i 2003 å 2008 å åäª 62% 2008 å 54% Ì i 60% r B/V=60% S/V=1 B/V=1 60%=40% i WACC ¼ WACC = 6.5% (1 55%) 60% + 10.825 40% = 6.085% Ñ w äª ç q { jw äª 3. s i i µ þm i ƒ q µ ̵ µ ̵ ië¼ Addax i FCF2009 10 - WACC FCF 2009 Addax i 2009 å WACC w äª G 118

2009 å 4 4 g Addax i ̵ q þ þµñ i ƒõƒ Addax i Í þm Ìj ̵ 3% 9 þµ 2009 å äª 9 FCF 2009 i ( g) WACC g ( g) d w ( g) ø ( ) i ( g) i (wg) ( g/ ) 80 4.39 6.085% 3% 142.30 28.65 1.576 72.11 79.32 60 3.12 6.085% 3% 101.13 28.65 1.576 45.99 50.59 þ 40 1.96 6.085% 3% 63.53 28.65 1.576 22.13 24.34 þµ qs 79.32 wg 50.59 w g 24.34 wg äª 60 g/ ± { äç 4.3% i ᪠úú i áª Ë Ñe ƒ n þm õ j ò jë ð z ~ e ~ s ~ e i e Ìi ᪠1. ië ië¼ n l 11 3 f 12 Ì Ì s 2008 å 12 31 Addax i e 2P e 5.367 w sàœ e r i j å ie e j 2009 åå q Ì ç royalty oil ç Î i s ~ profit oil ˆ i ne 3.81 60 119

China Management Studies 120 volume 4 4 g/ e 20 g/ se í àê i øe 76.2 g Ñ í e ò i Ñ æþm àê e 2. s ê s ê ˆ í ñs í ~ í e e iä᪠~ í e øe ê e ¼ ê e ~ í e Óñ ¼ 5 å k w 20% ¼ 5 åk w ˆ e j ~ e 50% g í e 60 g/ i j ± j ¼ s =6 g/ ê =30 g/ 9 g/ i ˆ 15 g j ƒ i Ñ e í 5 åkw 2.142 20% Ñ e í 5 11 åkê 3.225 50% Ñ e í 11 å ˆê 2.017 75% ¼ 10 10 i å 1 5 å 5 11 å 10 å ˆ 20% 50% 75% ê e 2.142 3.225 2.017 í e g/ 15 15 15 g 6.43 24.19 22.69 g 53.31 Addax i 53.31 gß 58.6 wg/ { p ð kj {¼ i j µþmƒ jn å

2009 å 4 4 ± e Ñ Addax i qs 46.96 wg/ 50.59 wg/ 58.6 wg/ Ó 60 g/ 46.96 wg/ 58.6 wg/ 52.8 wg/ { p ª iê å { Addax i } æ 11 Addax i s wg wg January 43.95 35.00 8417451 February 45.58 40.15 8172396 March 45.50 37.65 8464245 April 46.65 40.01 8090079 May 54.34 43.50 10388325 June 55.21 46.21 8885088 July 51.13 38.55 10745745 August 42.45 35.15 10162737 September 39.48 27.92 13528986 October 30.46 13.20 22044598 November 22.00 12.13 17421471 December 21.50 14.26 10744704 Addax i 2008 ååç æ s u w e Ì Ñ i ï 2008 å á s Û 6 i s 55.21 wg/ 2009 å 6 2008 å s } å ± í { Ñ i Ñ òƒ ð àê gq i 121

China Management Studies volume 4 4 } æ ïï Ñ} æ ç Ñ { { Ñ y êƒ áô Ñ { à «ê ƒ j Ó Í å } æ m i Ñ ˆ ƒ i y 2002 i Èß p 2007 ß å ß p Weston, J. Fred, 2002, The Exxon-Mobil Merger: An Archetype, Journal of Applied Finance, Sring / Summer, 7-26. The Rationality of Premium on Sinopec s Acquisition of Addax Petroleum Corporation Wang Zhen Zhou Jing Abstract: The current global financial crisis has brought both opportunities and challenges to the oil and gas industry, China s oil companies are seeking to make overseas mergers and acquisitions for long-term strategic development. On August 18, 2009, China Petrochemical Corporation is pleased to announce that the acquisition of Addax Petroleum Corporation with the offer 52.8 Canadian dollars per share was successfully completed, the closing of this deal represents the largest successful acquisition of overseas oil and gas assets by a Chinese company. But there is also controversy on the premium Sinopec paid. This article applies the theory of corporate finance, by using ratio method, discounted cash flows method and empirical method to do research on the rationality of premium. The result is that value paid by Sinopec contains premium, whether it is worthy depends on the synergy effect of the deal and integration strategy after the acquisition. Keywords: Sinopec, Addax, acquisition, valuation, premium 122